Agricultural Economics Economic Subject Matter Meetings Kentucky Horticulture Continues Expansion in 2002

Agricultural Economics

October 2002October 2002

Economic Subject Matter Meetings

Kentucky Horticulture Continues Expansion in 2002


WINNERS (+%)• Leafy Let. (132%)• Peppers (49%)• Cucumbers (36%)• Strawberries (25%)• Carrots (23%)• Cantaloupe (22%)• Tomatoes (16%)• Snap beans (15%)

LOSERS (-%)• Cauliflower (20%)• Head Let. (15%)• Apples (9%)• Celery (8%)• Sw Potatoes. (6%)• Fresh F&V’s PCC

up 10% 1990-02.

Changes in U.S. per capita consumption for selected fruits and vegetables, 1991-2002


U.S. Sweet Corn Shipping Point PricesU.S. Sweet Corn Shipping Point Prices1997-2001 and 20021997-2001 and 2002

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

June July August SeasonAverage

$/cw

t

1997-2001

2002

Source: USDA/ERS


Kentucky Sweet Corn Situation

• Marketing alliances for tray pack continuing

• Expanding to include foodservice products

• Growers struggled in 2001 but did better with 2002 prices


U.S. Tomato f.o.b Shipping Point PricesU.S. Tomato f.o.b Shipping Point Prices1997-2001 and 20021997-2001 and 2002

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

June July August SeasonAverage

$/cw

t 1997-2001

2002

Source: USDA/ERS


U.S. vs. Canadian Tomato Importsby: Kevin Nierman, The Packer, 2002


Tomato Imports Continue to Grow

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

OtherNetherlandsMexicoCanada


U.S. Cantaloupe Shipping Point PricesU.S. Cantaloupe Shipping Point Prices1997-2001 and 20021997-2001 and 2002

$0.00

$4.00

$8.00

$12.00

$16.00

$20.00

J une J uly August SeasonAverage

$/cw

t 1997-2001

2002

Source: USDA/ERS


U.S. Cabbage Average Farm PriceU.S. Cabbage Average Farm Price1997-20011997-2001

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

Pri

ce/cw

t

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Avg. Farm PriceSource: USDA/ERS


U.S. Bell Pepper Average Farm PriceU.S. Bell Pepper Average Farm Price1997-20011997-2001

Source: USDA/ERS

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

Pri

ce/cw

t

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Avg. Farm Price


U.S. Fresh Market Blueberry ProductionU.S. Fresh Market Blueberry Production

• Southern region production increases by 9% in 2002 BUT

• Southern market share decreases from 23% in 2001 due to increases in Western production

Source: North American Blueberry Council

2002

West30%

Midwest19%

Northeast30%

Southern21%

West Midwest Northeast Southern


2002 Blueberry Production2002 Blueberry ProductionKentucky and Other StatesKentucky and Other States

Kentucky production (40 acres) equaled approximately 50,000 pounds in 2002, up from 37,000 in 1997. Production is expected to increase to 350,000 pounds (40 more acres) by 2004. (UKy, USDA)

02468

101214161820

AL AR GA KY NC OK, SC,TN

MI IN MN, MO,OH, WI

Mil

lio

n P

ou

nd

s


Atlanta Terminal Market Blackberry PricesAtlanta Terminal Market Blackberry Prices

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

1-Ju

n8-

Jun

15-J

un

22-J

un

29-J

un6-

Jul

13-J

ul

20-J

ul

27-J

ul

3-Aug

10-A

ug

17-A

ug

24-A

ug

Per

Do

zen

6

oz

or

1/2

pt.

co

nta

ine

rs

1999-2001

2002

Source: USDA/ERS


U.S. Grape Vines, 1987-2002U.S. Grape Vines, 1987-2002

Sources: 1987-97: US Ag Census 2002: USDA/ERS, wineinstitute.org, CA Dept. of Food and Agriculture.

*2002 estimate includes 1,179,545 acres.

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

1987 1992 1997 2002*

Bearing Vines

Nonbearing Vines


Approximate Grape Prices Paid By Regional Approximate Grape Prices Paid By Regional Wineries, 1997-2000Wineries, 1997-2000

$/ton$/ton Vidal Seyval Vignoles Chambourcin Foch Concord

IN 525-550 400-550 475-685 450-600 400-550

MI 400-600 475-600 650-700 575-750

MO 600-700 600-700 600-700 325-375

NY 450-580 400-575 450-650 800-900 500-650 275-315

OH 450-610 450-675 190-230

PA 600-700 550-600 700-750 700-1000 550-600 200-500

VA 500-700 500-700 500-700 600-750 500-700

Estimated KY Breakeven Price Per Ton: $650-1050

Source: “Business Planning and Economics of Midwestern Grape Production”Bruce Bordelon, Purdue University, http://viticulture.hort.iastate.edu/wsfeb01/business.html


• Early indication is that Fall 2002 prices are slightly higher than usual.

• Good yields

Pumpkin Situation


St. Louis Terminal Market PricesSt. Louis Terminal Market PricesIllinois Large Howden PumpkinsIllinois Large Howden Pumpkins

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

30-Sep 1-Oct 2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct

45-5

0 C

oun

t B

ins

2001 2002

•Production problems (disease) have resulted in lower yields and significantly higher pumpkin prices early in the 2002 season.


Kentucky Agricultural Diversification Funds Kentucky Agricultural Diversification Funds by Countyby County

•$0-100,000

•$100,000-$199.999

•$200,000+ (Yellow counties)


Value of KY Wholesale Floriculture Sales By Value of KY Wholesale Floriculture Sales By Grower Size, 1993-2001Grower Size, 1993-2001

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

p

2001

p

Whole

sale

Sale

s ($

1,0

00)

$100,000+

$10,000-$99,999

<$10,000

Source: USDA/ERS Floriculture and Nursery Crops Situation and Outlook Yearbook, May 2002


This presentation was presented with the Agricultural Situation and Outlook, Fall 2002, publicationnumber ESM-28, published by the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Kentucky with an additional contribution from Kentucky State University in October 2002. The entire publication can be accessed on the WWW at http://www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/publications/esm_28.pdf. This article presents information on the economic situation and outlook for Kentucky agriculture and is intended to assist farmers, agribusiness professionals, Extension filed staff, and others with interest in agriculture and agribusiness. Information presented here is based on the most recent information and research available. However, the rapidly changing economic and policy conditions for agriculture limit the usefulness and life span of conclusions and recommendations cited here. Decision makers should keep these facts in mind. Feel free to use the information included in this publication for other uses, but please provide professional citation about the source. This paper is published without formal review and the views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Universityof Kentucky, the Agricultural Experiment Station, or the Cooperative Extension Service. If you need additional information or if you would like to provide comments or suggestions about this slideshow, please contact Tim Woods at [email protected].

University of Kentucky, Department of Agricultural Economics400 Charles E. Barnhart Bldg., Lexington, KY 40546-0276

Phone: 859-257-5762, Fax: 859-323-1913URL: http://www.uky.edu/Ag/AgEcon/

Documents

Agricultural Economics Economic Subject Matter Meetings Kentucky Horticulture Continues Expansion in 2002