50
Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward” Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, Washington, D.C.

Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Agricultural Outlook ForumCrystal Gateway Marriott Hotel

Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014

“The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, Washington, D.C.

Page 2: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Potential U.S. Trouble Spots,2014 Growing Season

• California (third year of drought; depleted soil moisture; diminishing water supplies)

• Great Basin, Southwest (see California)• Southern Great Plains (fourth year of

drought?; drought-damaged rangeland; subsoil moisture shortages)

• Corn Belt (lingering drought in Upper Midwest; wetness issues some places?)

• Western Gulf Coast (trending dry)

Page 3: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

L

S

SL

SL

S

SL

SL

S

S

L

S

SL

S

S

L

S

S

SLSL

S SL

SLS

SLL

SSL

L

S

SL

S

The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary for forecast statements.S

SL

L

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

U.S. Drought Monitor September 10, 2013

Valid 7 a.m. EST

(Released Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013)

Intensity:D0 Abnormally DryD1 Moderate DroughtD2 Severe DroughtD3 Extreme DroughtD4 Exceptional Drought

Author: Anthony Artusa

Drought Impact Types:

S = Short-Term, typically less than 6 months (e.g. agriculture, grasslands)

L = Long-Term, typically greater than 6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)

Delineates dominant impacts

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC

Sep. 10, 2013:summer peak,with 50.69% of

CONUS in drought.

Page 4: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Feb. 18, 2014:35.73% of

CONUS in drought.

Page 5: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 6: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

• Advantages of percentiles:– Can be applied to any parameter– Can be used for any length of data record– Puts drought in historical perspective

Percentiles and the U.S. Drought MonitorPercentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor

• D4, Exceptional Drought: once per 50 to 100 years

• D3, Extreme Drought: once per 20 to 50 years• D2, Severe Drought: once per 10 to 20 years• D1, Moderate Drought: once per 5 to 10 years• D0, Abnormally Dry: once per 3 to 5 years

Page 7: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

California Agricultural Production Statistics, 2012

• The state’s 80,500 farms and ranches received a record $44.7 billion for their output in 2012, up from $43.3 billion in 2011 and $37.9 billion in 2010.

• California is the number one state in cash farm receipts with 11.3 percent of the U.S. total.

• The state accounted for 15 percent of domestic receipts for crops and 7.1 percent of the U.S. revenue for livestock and livestock products.

Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture

Page 8: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

California Agricultural Production Statistics, 2012

• Milk: $6.90 billion• Grapes: $4.45 billion• Almonds: $4.35 billion• Nursery plants:

$3.54 billion• Cattle, Calves:

$3.30 billion

Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture

• Strawberries:

$1.94 billion• Lettuce: $1.45 billion• Walnuts: $1.35 billion• Hay: $1.25 billion• Tomatoes:

$1.17 billionNote: These ten commodities accounted for approximately two-thirds of California’s agricultural cash receipts in 2012.

Page 9: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Percent of Normal PrecipitationOctober 1, 2013 – February 19, 2014

Page 10: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

SNOTEL – River Basin Snow Water Content

Feb. 19, 2014

Page 11: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 12: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

2013-141990-91

1975-761917-18

Page 13: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 14: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

California Reservoir Storage, Million Acre-Feet, 2010-14

Note: One acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water it takes to cover one acre to a depth of one foot.California’s reservoir storage is down nearly 20 million acre-feet, or about 6.35 trillion gallons, since the summer of 2011.

15

20

25

30

351-

Jan

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

California recovered from a previous drought in 2009-10. The current drought began during the winter of 2011-12 and has persisted through 2012-13 and into 2013-14.

Source: California Department of Water Resources

2011

2010Avg.

2012

20132014

Page 15: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

California Reservoir Storage, Percent of Normal, 2010-14

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1401-

Jan

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

California recovered from a previous drought in 2009-10. The current drought began during the winter of 2011-12 and has persisted through 2012-13 and into 2013-14.

Source: California Department of Water Resources

2013

2012

2010

2011

2014

Page 16: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

California Reservoirs, Recharge and WithdrawalMillion Acre-Feet and Percent of Average

Recharge Withdrawal 2010-11 12.5 (151%) 2011 8.8 (107%)2011-12 5.8 (70%) 2012 11.5 (140%)2012-13 6.5 (79%) 2013 11.2 (136%)2013-14 TBD 2014 TBDAvg. 8.2 Avg. 8.2

Page 17: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Source: California Department of Water Resources

Daily Sierra Nevada Snowpack (Inches) vs. Normal

0

5

10

15

20

25

301-

Dec

8-D

ec

15-D

ec

22-D

ec

29-D

ec

5-Ja

n

12-J

an

19-J

an

26-J

an

2-Fe

b

9-Fe

b

16-F

eb

23-F

eb

2-M

ar

9-M

ar

16-M

ar

23-M

ar

30-M

ar

Normal

2012-13

2011-122013-14

Page 18: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

1975-77

1986-94 2011-13

12

4,3

56

7 9 8

10 12,11

X = Rankings of Driest Years

Page 19: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 20: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

67 66 6662 62 62 62 61

5855 54 53 52

5047 46 45 46 45 45

47 48 48 47 47 46 46

52 5355

5351

4744

41 40 3936 35 35 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 36 37

39 40 39 39

4947 48

45 46 46 46 4541

39 39 39 3937

33 32 31 3234 35 36 37 36 35 35 34 34 34 34

3633

30

2422 21 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 21

23 23 24 24

3027 27 26 27 26 27

25 2422 21 21 21

1917 16 16 16 16 17 18 17 16 15 14

12 11 11 12 129

53 3 3 3 3 3 3

6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8

1511 11 11 11 11 11

6 5 5 57 7

10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 75 5 5

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fe

b 19

20

13F

eb

26 2

013

Ma

r 5

201

3M

ar

12 2

013

Ma

r 19

20

13M

ar

26 2

013

Apr

2 2

013

Apr

9 2

013

Apr

16

201

3A

pr 2

3 2

013

Apr

30

201

3M

ay

7 20

13M

ay

14 2

013

Ma

y 21

201

3M

ay

28 2

013

Jun

4 2

013

Jun

11

201

3Ju

n 1

8 2

013

Jun

25

201

3Ju

l 2 2

013

Jul 9

20

13Ju

l 16

201

3Ju

l 23

201

3Ju

l 30

201

3A

ug 6

201

3A

ug 1

3 2

013

Aug

20

201

3A

ug 2

7 2

013

Sep

3 2

013

Sep

10

201

3S

ep 1

7 2

013

Sep

24

201

3O

ct 1

20

13O

ct 8

20

13O

ct 1

5 2

013

Oct

22

201

3O

ct 2

9 2

013

Nov

5 2

013

Nov

12

201

3N

ov 1

9 2

013

Nov

26

201

3D

ec 3

201

3D

ec 1

0 2

013

Dec

17

201

3D

ec 2

4 2

013

Dec

31

201

3Ja

n 7

20

14Ja

n 1

4 2

014

Jan

21

201

4Ja

n 2

8 2

014

Fe

b 4

201

4F

eb

11 2

014

Fe

b 18

20

14

Perc

ent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Cattle Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Page 21: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 22: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

57 56 56

51 51 51 51 5046

4341 41 41

3735

33 32 3331 31

3335 36

34 34 33 33

39 3941

3937

3330

2826 25

22 22 22 21 21 21 22 21 21 22 23 23 2426 25 24

39 38 3835 36 36 36

34

2826 27 26 26

2321

18 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 22 22 21 2123 24 25

2320

14 1311 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11

2018 18 17 17 17 18

1614

12 11 11 119

7 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 73 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4

97 7 7 7 6 6

3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fe

b 19

20

13F

eb

26 2

013

Ma

r 5

201

3M

ar

12 2

013

Ma

r 19

20

13M

ar

26 2

013

Apr

2 2

013

Apr

9 2

013

Apr

16

201

3A

pr 2

3 2

013

Apr

30

201

3M

ay

7 20

13M

ay

14 2

013

Ma

y 21

201

3M

ay

28 2

013

Jun

4 2

013

Jun

11

201

3Ju

n 1

8 2

013

Jun

25

201

3Ju

l 2 2

013

Jul 9

20

13Ju

l 16

201

3Ju

l 23

201

3Ju

l 30

201

3A

ug 6

201

3A

ug 1

3 2

013

Aug

20

201

3A

ug 2

7 2

013

Sep

3 2

013

Sep

10

201

3S

ep 1

7 2

013

Sep

24

201

3O

ct 1

20

13O

ct 8

20

13O

ct 1

5 2

013

Oct

22

201

3O

ct 2

9 2

013

Nov

5 2

013

Nov

12

201

3N

ov 1

9 2

013

Nov

26

201

3D

ec 3

201

3D

ec 1

0 2

013

Dec

17

201

3D

ec 2

4 2

013

Dec

31

201

3Ja

n 7

20

14Ja

n 1

4 2

014

Jan

21

201

4Ja

n 2

8 2

014

Fe

b 4

201

4F

eb

11 2

014

Fe

b 18

20

14

Perc

ent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Hay Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Page 23: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Western Reservoir SituationFebruary 1, 2014

• Besides California, reservoir storage for this time of year is far below normal in Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon.

Page 24: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Potential U.S. Trouble Spots,2014 Growing Season

• California (third year of drought; depleted soil moisture; diminishing water supplies)

• Great Basin, Southwest (see California)• Southern High Plains (fourth year of

drought?; drought-damaged rangeland; subsoil moisture shortages)

• Corn Belt (lingering drought in Upper Midwest; wetness issues farther east?)

• Western Gulf Coast (trending dry)

Page 25: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 26: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

59 58 5856 56 56 56 56 55 54 54 53 52

50 4947 47

5048 48 48 48 49

4644

41 4143 44 45

4340

36 35 34 34 3331 30 31 30 30 31

33 33 33 34

41 41

48 4947

45

53 52 5250 50 50 50 50

48 47 4744 43

41 40 40 3937 38 38 39 39 39

36 3532

30 31 30 3127

2523 22

20 21 20 20 20 21 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 23 23

28 28 28 28

4239 39 38 38 38 38

3634 33

31 30 2927 28

26 26 27 27 27 28 2826

2320

17 16 16 16 16

97 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8

10 10 10 9

26

18 17 17 1715 15

12 11 10 1113 12

14 14 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 106

3 4 4 51 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fe

b 19

20

13F

eb

26 2

013

Ma

r 5

201

3M

ar

12 2

013

Ma

r 19

20

13M

ar

26 2

013

Apr

2 2

013

Apr

9 2

013

Apr

16

201

3A

pr 2

3 2

013

Apr

30

201

3M

ay

7 20

13M

ay

14 2

013

Ma

y 21

201

3M

ay

28 2

013

Jun

4 2

013

Jun

11

201

3Ju

n 1

8 2

013

Jun

25

201

3Ju

l 2 2

013

Jul 9

20

13Ju

l 16

201

3Ju

l 23

201

3Ju

l 30

201

3A

ug 6

201

3A

ug 1

3 2

013

Aug

20

201

3A

ug 2

7 2

013

Sep

3 2

013

Sep

10

201

3S

ep 1

7 2

013

Sep

24

201

3O

ct 1

20

13O

ct 8

20

13O

ct 1

5 2

013

Oct

22

201

3O

ct 2

9 2

013

Nov

5 2

013

Nov

12

201

3N

ov 1

9 2

013

Nov

26

201

3D

ec 3

201

3D

ec 1

0 2

013

Dec

17

201

3D

ec 2

4 2

013

Dec

31

201

3Ja

n 7

20

14Ja

n 1

4 2

014

Jan

21

201

4Ja

n 2

8 2

014

Fe

b 4

201

4F

eb

11 2

014

Fe

b 18

20

14

Perc

ent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Winter Wheat Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Page 27: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Percent U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment1909-2013

19171933

1935 20021951

1955 19891928’13*1996 ’061983

Years since the 1950s withW.W. abandonment > 22%:

1983, 1989, 1991, 1996,2001, 2002, 2006, and 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1909

1913

1917

1921

1925

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

19171933

1935 20021951

1955 19891928 ’131996 ’061983

Years since the 1950s withW.W. abandonment > 22%:

1983, 1989, 1991, 1996,2001, 2002, 2006, and 2013

2013: 2nd highest winterwheat abandonment in the“modern era” behind 2002

Page 28: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 29: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

18-O

ct

25-O

ct

1-N

ov

8-N

ov

15-N

ov

22-N

ov

29-N

ov

6-D

ec

Inde

x

Date

U.S. WINTER WHEAT Condition Index

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Based on NASS crop progress data.

2004

2012

2013

Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

Page 30: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Winter Wheat ConditionsFebruary 2, 2014

State VP P F G EX

Texas (2/2) 14 27 40 17 2

Oklahoma 4 20 40 31 5

Kansas 3 17 45 33 2

Nebraska 3 15 36 40 6

S. Dakota 3 13 24 53 7

Montana 1 5 48 43 3

Illinois 1 3 40 53 3

Texas (2/16) 13 31 39 15 2

Page 31: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment1980-2013

Source: USDA

19861992

19982006

2011

2013

Page 32: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Potential U.S. Trouble Spots,2014 Growing Season

• California (third year of drought; depleted soil moisture; diminishing water supplies)

• Great Basin, Southwest (see California)• Southern High Plains (fourth year of

drought?; drought-damaged rangeland; subsoil moisture shortages)

• Corn Belt (lingering drought in Upper Midwest; wetness issues farther east?)

• Western Gulf Coast (trending dry)

Page 33: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

U.S. Corn Yield, Bushels Per Acre1985-2013

1988

1993

1995

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

The impacts of the 2012 drought and heat on corn were severe; lowest U.S.

yield since 1995.

The impacts of the 2012 drought and heat on corn were severe; lowest U.S.

yield since 1995. 1994

2004 2009

2012

2010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell

3 years in a row since 1928-30.

2010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell

3 years in a row since 1928-30.

2013

From “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023”: 2014 U.S. corn yield of 165.6 bushels/acre

From “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023”: 2014 U.S. corn yield of 165.6 bushels/acre

Page 34: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Iowa, Summer Average Temperature (°F), 1895-2013

2013

201020112012

20092004

1992

1988

19952002

Page 35: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 36: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

62 62 62

5552 52 52 51

45

40 3935 34

29

2321 20 19

17 17 17 1719 19

2224 25

45

5255 55 54 54

4339 38 38

36

30 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 29 29

46 46 4543 44 44 44 43

33

24 2422 21 20

1412 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11

1620

22 23 2321

1916 16 16

1310 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10

31 30 3027 27 27 27 26

1713 12 11 10 9

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

11 10 10 10 10 9 9

3 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fe

b 19

20

13F

eb

26 2

013

Ma

r 5

201

3M

ar

12 2

013

Ma

r 19

20

13M

ar

26 2

013

Apr

2 2

013

Apr

9 2

013

Apr

16

201

3A

pr 2

3 2

013

Apr

30

201

3M

ay

7 20

13M

ay

14 2

013

Ma

y 21

201

3M

ay

28 2

013

Jun

4 2

013

Jun

11

201

3Ju

n 1

8 2

013

Jun

25

201

3Ju

l 2 2

013

Jul 9

20

13Ju

l 16

201

3Ju

l 23

201

3Ju

l 30

201

3A

ug 6

201

3A

ug 1

3 2

013

Aug

20

201

3A

ug 2

7 2

013

Sep

3 2

013

Sep

10

201

3S

ep 1

7 2

013

Sep

24

201

3O

ct 1

20

13O

ct 8

20

13O

ct 1

5 2

013

Oct

22

201

3O

ct 2

9 2

013

Nov

5 2

013

Nov

12

201

3N

ov 1

9 2

013

Nov

26

201

3D

ec 3

201

3D

ec 1

0 2

013

Dec

17

201

3D

ec 2

4 2

013

Dec

31

201

3Ja

n 7

20

14Ja

n 1

4 2

014

Jan

21

201

4Ja

n 2

8 2

014

Fe

b 4

201

4F

eb

11 2

014

Fe

b 18

20

14

Perc

ent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Corn Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Page 37: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 38: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

53 53 52

4644 44 44 43

3733

3127

25

20

13 1210 9 8 8 8 9

11 1114

16 16

3842

45 45 44 43

3430 29 28

26

21 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 20 20

39 38 3835 35 35 35 34

23

15 1513 12 11

6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3

1012

1417 16

14 1310 10 10

6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4

22 21 2118 18 18 18 18

85 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5 4 4 4 4 4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fe

b 19

20

13F

eb

26 2

013

Ma

r 5

201

3M

ar

12 2

013

Ma

r 19

20

13M

ar

26 2

013

Apr

2 2

013

Apr

9 2

013

Apr

16

201

3A

pr 2

3 2

013

Apr

30

201

3M

ay

7 20

13M

ay

14 2

013

Ma

y 21

201

3M

ay

28 2

013

Jun

4 2

013

Jun

11

201

3Ju

n 1

8 2

013

Jun

25

201

3Ju

l 2 2

013

Jul 9

20

13Ju

l 16

201

3Ju

l 23

201

3Ju

l 30

201

3A

ug 6

201

3A

ug 1

3 2

013

Aug

20

201

3A

ug 2

7 2

013

Sep

3 2

013

Sep

10

201

3S

ep 1

7 2

013

Sep

24

201

3O

ct 1

20

13O

ct 8

20

13O

ct 1

5 2

013

Oct

22

201

3O

ct 2

9 2

013

Nov

5 2

013

Nov

12

201

3N

ov 1

9 2

013

Nov

26

201

3D

ec 3

201

3D

ec 1

0 2

013

Dec

17

201

3D

ec 2

4 2

013

Dec

31

201

3Ja

n 7

20

14Ja

n 1

4 2

014

Jan

21

201

4Ja

n 2

8 2

014

Fe

b 4

201

4F

eb

11 2

014

Fe

b 18

20

14

Perc

ent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Soybean Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Page 39: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 40: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Current Soil Moisture (Modeled)

Climate Prediction Center University of Washington

Even though some flooding is occurringnow in the Lower Midwest, soil moisturemodels point toward the northern Plains

as the region to watch for potential spring flooding and planting delays.

Page 41: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

• Streamlines the USDA Secretarial designation process by eliminating steps from the current process;

• A reduced interest rate for emergency loans that effectively lowers the current rate from 3.75 percent to 2.25 percent;

• Preserves the ability of a state governor or Indian Tribal Council to request a Secretarial Disaster Designation;

• Removes the requirement that a request for a disaster designation be initiated only by a state governor or Indian Tribal Council;

• Further streamlines the disaster designation process for severe drought occurrences by utilizing the U.S. Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas with no further documentation;

• Does not impose any new requirements on producers or the public.

• Led to drought disaster declarations in 2,254 counties in 39 states.

“Fast Track” Secretarial Disaster Designation Process

Page 42: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 43: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 44: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”
Page 45: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

• U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA

• Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (“Farm Bill”) authorizes the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)

– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing land or pastureland that is physically located in a county experiencing:

• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 1 monthly payment

• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 2 monthly payments

• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 3 monthly payments

Page 46: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

• U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA

• Agricultural Act of 2014 (“Farm Bill”) re-authorizes the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing land or

pastureland that is physically located in a county experiencing:• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal

grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 1 monthly payment

• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 3 monthly payments

• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 4 monthly payments

• D4 intensity for at least 4 weeks during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 5 monthly payments

Page 47: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

• 2008 “Farm Bill” Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire on or after January 1, 2008, and before October 1, 2011, during the calendar year in which the loss occurs):– 2008 calendar year: $165,540,837– 2009 calendar year: $ 98,739,950– 2010 calendar year: $ 33,334,458– 2011 calendar year: $180,950,088– 2012 calendar year: $ 0– LFP total, 2008-11: $478,565,333

Page 48: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Retroactive LFP Payouts

The 2014 Farm Bill contains permanent livestock disaster programs including the Livestock Forage Disaster Program, which will help producers in California and other areas recover from the drought. At President Obama’s direction, USDA is making implementation of the disaster programs a top priority and plans to have the programs available for sign up in 60 days. Producers will be able to sign up for the livestock disaster programs for losses not only for 2014 but for losses they experienced in 2012 and 2013. While these livestock programs took over a year to get assistance out the door under the last Farm Bill, USDA has committed to cut that time by more than 80 percent and begin sign-up in April. California alone could potentially receive up to $100 million for 2014 losses and up to $50 million for previous years.

Page 49: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

Thank you!• Contact info

- e-mail: [email protected] phone: (202) 720-2397

Signing of the 2014 Farm BillMichigan State University

February 7, 2014

Page 50: Agricultural Outlook Forum Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia, February 21, 2014 “The U.S. Drought of 2012-13 Lingers and Shifts Westward”

U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters, 1980-2013

1. Hurricane Katrina 2005 $148.8

2. Drought 1988 $ 78.8

3. Superstorm Sandy2012 $ 65.7

4. Drought 1980 $ 56.4

5. Hurricane Andrew 1992 $ 44.8

6. Flooding 1993 $ 33.8

7. Drought 2012 $ 30.3

8. Hurricane Ike 2008 $ 29.2

9. Hurricane Wilma 2005 $ 19.0

10. Hurricane Rita 2005 $ 19.0

Source: National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/)