Air Force Weather AgencyFly - Fight - Win

AFWA Site Update

WG-CSABSpring 2010

John Zapotocny7 April 2010

Approved for Public Release

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Overview

Operational Backup

DMSP Spacecraft Status

Developmental Initiatives WRF FOC Ensemble Modeling Dust Forecasting Space Weather Modeling

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Operational Backup

NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center 15 OWS provides primary short term back-up for SPC and AWC

Numerous Tests One real world back-up for SPC in October 2009

Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) One 20-minute evacuation covered by SWPC in 2010 48-hour COOP

Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified

Warning Dissemination Backup capability delivered to AFWA/SWPC Beyond 48-hr COOP

NCEP will provide alternate facility NLT FY11. AFWA will have access to this site if SWPC is disabled

NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 2 real world backups/1 scheduled backup

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DMSP Spacecraft StatusMar 2010

Slide removed in public release version

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WRF FOC

WRF ARW—transitioned to full operation capability Near 1 for 1 replacement with MM5 45-, 15-, 5-km windows 57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top New Kain-Fritsch

Convection Scheme WRF Single Moment

- 5 Microphysics Yonsei Univ PBL Coupled to Unified

NOAH LSM 3DVAR data assimilation system

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WRF FOCOperational Theaters – Mar 2010

Slide removed in public release version

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Global and mesoscale ensembles in development mode Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) based on

GFS, NOGAPS, GEM ensemble members 2 cycles per day 240 hour forecast length, 6 hourly output Domain cut-outs based on warfighter feedback

Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) based on WRF and SREF ensemble members WRF—2 cycles per day per theater, 4 domains, offset 6hrs SREF—4 cycles per day SREF and WRF merged twice per day for CONUS only First ever multi-center, multi-model mesoscale ensemble

Contingency domain rapidly deployable—e.g., Haiti

Ensemble Forecasting

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12 km, 48 hours

4 km, 30 hours

40 km grids 3 hourly output

12 km, 48 hours

12 km, 48 hours

40 km, 132 hours

12 km & 4 km grids hourly output

AFWA Ensemble Domains

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Ensemble Webpage https://weather.afwa.af.mil/host_home/DNXM/JEFS/jefs.html

Available products for global (GEPS) and mesoscale (MEPS):

Precipitation AmountPrecipitation TypeSnow AmountCloud CoverLightningDust LoftingSevere WeatherBlizzardSurface Wind GustVisibilityWind ChillHeat IndexSmoke TrappingHaboob IndexSig Tornado Parameter

Realtime verification also available on webpage

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Strength of AFWA ensembles effort is cutting-edge exploitation of ensemble data Close collaboration with users to create algorithms to

generate actionable information for forecasters Algorithms still being refined and evaluated by users

and developers

Ensemble ForecastingMilitary Application

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Prototype Dust Joint Probability

Product

12-hForecast

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Ensemble ModelingMesoscale Ensemble Predicts

Large Scale Iraq Dust Event

12 km MEPS; 30-h forecast

4 km MEPS; 24-h forecast valid 6 hrs prior

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DTA-GFS Uses ½ degree GFS data

2 cycles out to 72 hours; 2 cycles out to 180 hours Affords unique strategic planning capability

Dust concentration and Dust visibility products Africa, SWA, and East Asia; 1 deg Ginoux (like DTA-MM5) Operational – Jan 10

DTA-WRF Delivered version uses 15 km WRF data out 48 hours; SWA only In house version uses 45 km WRF data out to 72 hours; SWA, Africa,

East Asia - prototype Both incorporate modified ¼ degree Ginoux database 15 km SWA operational Nov 09; 45 km products operational Aug 10

Dust Forecasting

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Early DTA verification study established relationship between concentration & visibility

Later added as DTA product

Subjective verification technique Area divided into grid Hit/no hit evaluated

Verification ongoing – visibility restriction due to dust added to model metrics

Probability of detecting (POD) a dust storm beyond 24 hours is 50-80%

Selected Region T+24 hrs T+36 hrs T+60 hrs

Iraq 70% 66% 60%

NE Afghanistan/Pakistan 80% 65% 50%

SW Afghanistan 65% 65% 65%

Dust ForecastingDTA Verification

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https://weather.afwa.af.mil/jaawin/eevents/dustTransport.jsp?region=SW_ASIA

Dust ForecastingDTA Visibility Product

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Before soil moisture correction

After soil moisture correction

Dust ForecastingSoil Moisture Improvements

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Dust Forecasting10 Mar 2009 Event - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

DTA visibility forecast cycle - roughly 48 hours prior to event

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Dust Transport Application High resolution (0.25 degree and smaller) dust source region Development of a dynamic dust source region database Develop DTA-based dust ensemble products

Collaboration w/ Navy (NRL & FNMOC) COAMPS dust model products

Improve DTA to re-loft dust that has been deposited Initial work being accomplished by JHU-APL

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TAKE-AWAYS:• Improved dust source region database• More accurate dust forecasts for the warfighters• Better forecast timing for event termination in the future• Dynamically updated joint dust source region database (planned)

Dust ForecastingWay Ahead

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GAIM – Full-Physics upgrade (GAIM-FP) due from USU in CY 12 Continue to assimilate new data and make enhancements Higher resolution, greater accuracy, and larger vertical domain

SAA model delivered from JHU-APL to support classified ops Adding ensemble mode to solar wind/ionosphere model (SWMS) Partnerships to advance space weather support

NASA – Helped CCMC refine iSWA to serve AFWA forecasters AFRL – SWFL will bring state-of-the-science models into the ops

environment to speed transition NOAA – SWPT will transition new models to ops for SWPC and AFWA

Upgrading HF comm support with advanced SWPC model

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Space Weather Modeling

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Questions