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Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation 1 Kirsti Ashworth, Nick Hewitt, Oliver Wild 2 Gerd Folberth

Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

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Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation 1 Kirsti Ashworth, Nick Hewitt, Oliver Wild 2 Gerd Folberth 1 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University 2 Met Office Hadley Centre. AIR QUALITY. CLIMATE. OZONE. AEROSOLS. VOCs. Cultivation. Methodology. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

1 Kirsti Ashworth, Nick Hewitt, Oliver Wild2 Gerd Folberth

1 Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University 2 Met Office Hadley Centre

Page 2: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

VOCs

Cultivation

OZONE AEROSOLS

CLIMATEAIR QUALITY

Page 3: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Methodology

Page 4: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Biofuel scenariosScenario Description AreaControl • CMIP5 SSTs -

• IGBP vegetation dataset

Page 5: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Biofuel scenariosScenario Description Area (Mha)

Control • AMIP SSTs -• IGBP vegetation dataset

SRCs • Extra-tropics 92• Crops/grasses replaced

Page 6: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation
Page 7: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Biofuel scenariosScenario Description Area (Mha)

Control • AMIP SSTs -• IGBP vegetation dataset

SRCs • Extra-tropics 92• Crops/grasses replaced

Oil Palm • Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69• Broadleaf trees replaced

Page 8: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation
Page 9: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Biofuel scenariosScenario Description Area (Mha)

Control • AMIP SSTs -• IGBP vegetation dataset

SRCs • Extra-tropics 92• Crops/grasses replaced

Oil Palm • Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69• Broadleaf trees replaced

Page 10: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Biofuel scenariosScenario Description Area (Mha)

Control • AMIP SSTs -• IGBP vegetation dataset

SRCs • Extra-tropics 92• Crops/grasses replaced

Oil Palm • Tropics (~ 15°S to 15°N) 69• Broadleaf trees replaced

+ NOx • Processing and fertiliser 69

Page 11: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Results

Page 12: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Global analysis

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Page 13: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Global analysis

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %

Page 14: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %Δ isoprene + 1% + 1%

Global analysis

Page 15: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %Δ isoprene + 1% + 1%

Climate impacts

Global analysis

Page 16: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %Δ isoprene + 1% + 1%

Climate impacts - -

Global analysis

Page 17: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %Δ isoprene + 1% + 1%Air quality

Global analysis

Page 18: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Fossil fuel replaced 1 % 1 %Δ isoprene + 1% + 1%Air quality - -

Global analysis

Page 19: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Regional analysisSRCs Oil Palm

+ NOx

Page 20: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE Asia

Regional analysis

Page 21: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE AsiaPlanted area (Mha) 69 27

Regional analysis

Page 22: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE AsiaPlanted area (Mha) 69 27

Fuel yield (Mt/y) 110 110

Regional analysis

Page 23: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE AsiaPlanted area (Mha) 69 27

Fuel yield (Mt/y) 110 110Total area (Mha) 1400 1350

Regional analysis

Page 24: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE AsiaPlanted area (Mha) 69 27

Fuel yield (Mt/y) 110 110Total area (Mha) 1400 1350

Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2

Regional analysis

Page 25: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE AsiaPlanted area (Mha) 69 27

Fuel yield (Mt/y) 110 110Total area (Mha) 1400 1350

Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.4 +0.25

Regional analysis

Page 26: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

July SEAsia NOx

Page 27: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

July EU SRC

Page 28: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE Asia

AreaΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2

Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.4 +0.25

Regional analysis

Page 29: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE Asia

AreaΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2

Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.4 +0.3

Veg

Regional analysis

Page 30: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE Asia

AreaΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2

Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.4 +0.3

VegΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.3 +0.9

Regional analysis

Page 31: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

SRCs Oil Palm + NOx

Region Europe SE Asia

AreaΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.2 +0.2

Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.4 +0.3

VegΔ O3 (ppbv) +0.3 +0.9

Peak Δ O3 (ppbv) +0.7 +1.2

Regional analysis

Page 32: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Conclusions

Page 33: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

Any questions?

Page 34: Air quality and climate impacts of biofuel cultivation

WorkshopBiogenic VOC emissions

models and their applications

May 17th-18th, LancasterMore info and to register:

www.lec.lancs.ac.uk/bvoc