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Air Quality Evaluation International Initiative

(AQMEII)

S. Galmarini European Commission - Joint Research Center

Institute for Environment and Sustainability

http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu

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Background

• Air quality model validation as essential process on model development and improvement

• Air quality models are important assets of the decision making process on emission regulation and definition of air quality standards

AQMEII’s foci:Evaluation of regional scale air quality models

Development of a common evaluation frameworkBridging North American and European modeling communities

• Activity supported by JRC-IES, US-EPA, Environment Canada, DG-RTD and DG-ENV

• May 2009: JRC-IES organizes the Stresa workshop. In depth analysis of the four evaluation streams defined by AQMEII and starting the definition of the a the first activity involving the two communities

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Stresa workshop:• Definition of the four model evaluation streams• Research gaps within each theme + priorities• Preliminary definition of the first practical activity

Dynamic Evaluation

Can the model capture changes related to meteorological events or variations?

Can the model capture changes related to emission reductions?

Model-predicted concentration and deposition

Model Inputs: meteorology and emissionsChemical transformation: gas, aerosol, and aqueous phasesTransport: advection and diffusionRemoval: dry and wet deposition

Diagnostic Evaluation

Are model errors or biases caused by model inputs or by modeled processes?

Can we identify the specific modeled process(es) responsible?

Are we getting the right answers?

Probabilistic Evaluation

What is our confidence in the model-predicted values?

How do observed concentrations compare within an uncertainty range of model predictions?

Operational Evaluation

How do the model predicted concentrations compare to observed concentration data?

What are the overall temporal or spatial prediction errors or biases?

Are we getting the right answers for the right (or wrong) reasons?

Can we capture the observed changes in air quality?

What is our confidence in the

model predictions?

Can we identify needed improvements for modeled processes or inputs?

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First AQMEII practical activity

First phase (2010) : The two continent model evaluation exercise

focus operational, diagnostic and probabilistic evaluation

• Collection of model results for EU and North American continent over a period of 1 year (2006)

• Collection of model and monitoring data for the case study

• Organize the information of a central database with the high level of harmonization

• Exchanging experience on the use of emission inventories produced in NA and EU

• Spacial analysis of model behavior and evaluation at monitoring stations against measurements

• Introduction of the vertical dimension as important element of the evaluation => use of vertical profile and MOZAIC data for the two continents

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DM Community

Other Users

M1 M2 M.. M22

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M.. M22

Platform developed in 2000 for emergency response real time ensemble dispersion analysis

• The facility allows acquisition of model results• Real-time on the fly consultation of the sets• Client based analysis• Hard wired model evaluation tools and parameters• Acquisition of point measurements for model vs modelanalysis• Global as well as regional scale coverage

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- collection point of the data- client based pre-consultation center- ensemble analysis

- guarantee continuous accessibility to information for research and consultation- access initially limited to participants- possibility of open access to validated information (not in the short to medium term)

Prototypical use of the ENSEMBLE system (Galmarini et al. 2004, AE)

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Across Atlantic AQMEII data organization

Data provider: ECMWF-MACC

Data: NA Boundary conditionsEU Boundary conditions

AQMEII Data Depot: METEO France; delivery: FTP

WEST ATLANTIC data organization

Data provider: US-EPAData: NA-EmissionsNA Meteorology

AQMEII Data Depots: NA Emissions: US-EPA; delivery: FTPNA meteo: US-EPA; delivery: hard diskEU meteo (copy from IPSL); delivery: hard disk

Data providers: various sources (see CoC)Monitoring data NA and EU:Ground stations (AQ and meteo)Ozone soundingsMOZAIC profile

AQMEII Data Depot: JRC-ENSEMBLE; delivery: online consultation

EAST ATLANTIC data organization

Data provider: TNOData: EU-Emissions

Data provider: IPSLData: EU Meteorology

AQMEII Data Depots: EU Emissions: TNO; delivery: FTPEU meteo: IPSL; delivery: hard diskNA meteo (copy from US-EPA); delivery: hard disk

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• Number of groups per country that have accepted the COC

AUSTRIA 1

CANADA 1

SWITZERLAND 1

GERMANY 3

SPAIN 1

FINLAND 1

FRANCE 3

GREECE 1

ITALY 1

NORWAY 1

POLAND 2

UK 2

US 4

Total = 22

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• Meteorological, air quality, and emission model data expected on:

– 2D fields on common grid 0.25x0.25 degrees– At monitoring sites– In the vertical at radio soundings locations– In air volumes above specific airport location

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Atlanta - 30Dallas - 124Montreal - 2NewYork - 15Philadelphia - 110Portland - 142Toronto - 90Vancouver – 72Washington - 62

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Standard Acknowledgments statement• We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of various groups to the first air Quality Model Evaluation international

Initiative (AQMEII) activity. The following agencies have prepared the data sets used in this study: U.S. EPA (North American emissions processing and gridded meteorology); U.S. EPA, Environment Canada, Mexican Secretariat of the Environment and Natural Resources (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales-SEMARNAT) and National Institute of Ecology (Instituto Nacional de Ecología-INE) (North American national emissions inventories); TNO (European emissions processing); Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ (gridded meteorology for Europe); ECMWF/GEMS project & Météo-France/CNRM-GAME (Chemical boundary conditions). Ambient North American concentration measurements were extracted from Environment Canada's National Atmospheric Chemistry Database (NAtChem) PM database and provided by several U.S. and Canadian agencies (AQS, CAPMoN, CASTNet, IMPROVE, NAPS, SEARCH and STN networks); North American precipitation-chemistry measurements were extracted from NAtChem's precipitation-chemistry data base and were provided by several U.S. and Canadian agencies (CAPMoN, NADP, NBPMN, NSPSN, and REPQ networks); the WMO World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Centre (WOUDC) and its data-contributing agencies provided North American and European ozonesonde profiles; NASA's AErosol RObotic NETwork (AeroNet) and its data-contributing agencies provided North American and European AOD measurements; the MOZAIC Data Centre and its contributing airlines provided North American and European aircraft takeoff and landing vertical profiles; for European air quality data the following data centers were used: EMEP European Environment Agency/European Topic Center on Air and Climate Change/AirBase provided European air- and precipitation-chemistry data. Data from meteorological station monitoring networks were provided by NOAA and Environment Canada (for the US and Canadian meteorological network data) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data support section. Joint Research Center Ispra/Institute for Environment and Sustainability provided its ENSEMBLE system for model output harmonization and analyses and evaluation.

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• Input data available since April 5th, 2010

• Data expected between now and June/July 2010

• Preliminary analysis and discussion at 2nd AQMEII workshop, Turin, September 2010, in connection with 31st ITM conference

• Definition of phase two at workshop

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Participation still opened:

URL: http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu

or

mailto: aqmeii@jrc.ec.europa.eu

or/andstefano.galmarini@jrc.ec.europa.eu (co-chair for Europe)

or/andRao.ST@epamail.epa.gov (co-chair for North America)