Air Quality Forecastingin China

using a regional model

Bas MijlingRonald van der A

Henk EskesHennie Kelder

Overview

• Overview CHIMERE model

• Emissions

• First validation results

• Future steps

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Processes taken into account

eveningnoonmorning

VOC

NOx

VOCNOx

VOC

Deposition

Winds limit layer

FREE TROPOSPHERE

100 mTemperature

2000 m

Winds altitude

MIXING LAYER

hv

Inversion

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Overview Chimere

output

CHIMERE

ECMWFmeteo

MELCHIOR scheme44 species120 reactions

INTEX-B2006 inventory

GLGC database1 x 1 km²

emissions

monthly averagesgas phase: LMDZ-INCA2aerosol: GOCART

boundaryconditions

end field of previoussimulation

initial field

landuse

chemistry

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Resolution 0.25 x 0.25 degree8 horizontal layersHourly concentrations of44 gases and aerosols

Domain of Chimere

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Domain of Chimere

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

INTEX-B Emissions by Qiang Zhangand David Streets

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Emission comparisonINTEX-B 2006

East Asia, 0.5×0.5 degree

Sectors (4) pollutants

Power

Industry

Residential

Transportation

NOx

SOx

CO

VOC (30)

PM10

PM2.5

BC

OC

EMEP 1990-2004

Europe, 50×50 km

Sectors (11) pollutants

Combustion in energy and transform. ind.

Non-industrial combustion plants

Combustion in manufacturing industry

Production processes

Extraction/distribution of fossil fuels

Solvent and other product use

Road transport

Other mobile sources and machinery

Waste treatment and disposal

Agriculture

NOx

SOx

CO

NH3

NMVOC

PM10

PM2.5

POPs (8)

Heavy metals (5)

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

ValidationGround measurements

Beijing Daily mean 12 pm-12pmof 7-10 stations

Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, PM10

http://www.bjee.org.cn/api/index.php?stat=month

Shanghai Daily mean 12 pm-12pmof n stations

Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, PM10

http://www.envir.online.sh.cn/airnews/index.asp

Hong Kong Hourly data for 14 stations

Surface concentrationNO2, SO2, O3, CO, PM10

http://www.epd-asg.gov.hk/english/24pollu/pc_24station.php

Satellite measurements

OMI Daily at local overpass time 13h

Tropospheric NO2 column

http://www.temis.nl

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Comparison with BeijingCorrelation NO2 Beijing (0.70)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 50 100 150 200

chim ere

gro

un

d

Timeseries NO2 Beijing 10-4-2008 to 8-5-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

days

surf

ace

con

cen

trat

ion

[u

g/m

3]

chimere

ground

Timeseries PM10 Beijing 10-4-2008 to 8-5-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

days

su

rfac

e c

on

cen

tra

tio

n [

ug

/m3

]

chimere

ground

Correlation PM10 Beijing (0.89)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 100 200 300 400

chim ere

gro

un

d

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Preliminary!

Comparison with Hong KongTimeseries NO2 Hong Kong 10-4-2008 to 8-5-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

days

surf

ace

con

cen

trat

ion

[u

g/m

3]

chimere

ground

Correlation NO2 Hong Kong (0.85)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 50 100 150

chim ere

gro

un

d

Timeseries PM10 Hong Kong 10-4-2008 to 8-5-2008

0

50

100

150

200

250

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

days

surf

ace

con

cen

trat

ion

[u

g/m

3]

chimere

ground

Correlation PM10 Hong Kong (0.28)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 50 100 150 200 250

chim ereg

rou

nd

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Preliminary!

Comparison with OMIPreliminary!

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Validation conclusions

• With OMI:– Order of magnitude looks OK– Main features correspond– “Phantom” source at Xian in Chimere

• With ground measurements:– Time series correlate reasonable, but not perfect

– Overestimation NO2 for Beijing

► More debugging and validation to be done!

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Timezone bugDiurnal emissions of NO2

0.00E+00

5.00E+10

1.00E+11

1.50E+11

2.00E+11

2.50E+11

3.00E+11

1 25 49 73

hours

emis

sio

n N

O2

Beijing

Paris

GMT+0 GMT+24 GMT+48 GMT+72 GMT+96

Anthropogenic emissions for Beijing (GMT+8) should include offset

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Future steps (1)• Emission Database

– improved implementation of INTEX-B– spatial disaggregation for higher resolution (by VITO) – implementing realistic diurnal and weekly cycles– scaling emissions with satellite observations

• Boundary conditions from global model

• Feedback from other groups (aerosols, desert dust,…)

• Validation– comparison NO2, O3, CO, PM10 with hourly ground measurements– further comparison NO2 with OMI satellite instrument

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Future steps (2)

• Nesting AURORA model over Beijing in Chimere (by VITO)

• Investigating the quality of the forecast• How do the air quality measures during the

Olympics affect the emissions?

AMFIC progress meeting ● Thessaloniki ● May 2008

Thank you

Brilliant City, Shanghai