Air Quality Impact Analysis 1.Establish a relationship between emissions and air quality. AQ past = a EM past + b 2.A change in emissions results in an

Air Quality Impact AnalysisAir Quality Impact Analysis

1. Establish a relationship between emissions and air quality.

AQpast = a EMpast + b

2. A change in emissions results in an air quality impact.

AQfuture = a EMfuture + b

3. However, for some pollutants, air quality is a complicated function of meteorology and chemistry.

Case 1: No Chemistry, Widespread Case 1: No Chemistry, Widespread SourceSource

Use Linear Rollback

Pollutants– CO– Diesel particulate matter– Benzene - reacts very slowly

Case 2: No Chemistry, Case 2: No Chemistry, Variety of SourcesVariety of Sources

Use Chemical Mass Balance Model– Trace metals identify source

contributions for organic carbon and elemental carbon

Use Meteorological Analyses– Identify source areas for dust, organic

carbon, and elemental carbon

Bakersfield PM SourcesBakersfield PM Sources

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fra

ctio

n (

%)

Unexplained

Nitrate

Sulfate

Construction

Primary Crude Oil

Vegetative Burning

Primary MV

Geological

PM10 PM2.5 PM2.5PM10

Annual 24-Hour

Case 3: Linear Chemistry, Case 3: Linear Chemistry, Single PrecursorSingle Precursor

Verify Linear Rollback– Trace metals identify source contributions– Meteorological analyses identify source areas

Pollutants– Nitrates - correlate to NOX, assume sufficient NH3

– Sulfates - correlate to SOX, assume sufficient oxidant

– Secondary organic carbon - estimate with conversion factors for aromatics and high-weight alkanes

– 1,3-Butadiene -check for loss rate proportional to O3

– HCHO, CH3CHO - compare to O3 for chemical formation estimate

– NO2 - correlate to NOX

California NOCalifornia NO22 and NO and NOXX

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Me

an

An

nu

al N

O2

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Me

an

An

nu

al S

um

me

r N

Ox

Mean Annual NO2-Southern California Mean Annual NOx-Downtown LA

Trends for Los AngelesTrends for Los AngelesAnnual Top30 MeanAnnual Top30 Mean

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93

Mid-Year of 3-year Moving Mean Period

[NO

x] o

r [S

O2]

(pph

m)

05101520253035404550

[NO

3] o

r [S

O4]

(ug/

m3 )

NOx

SO2

NO3

SO4

Trends for BakersfieldTrends for BakersfieldAnnual Top30 MeanAnnual Top30 Mean

0

5

10

15

20

25

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92

Mid-Year of 3-year Moving Mean Period

[NO

x] o

r [S

O2]

(p

ph

m)

0

5

10

15

20

25

[NO

3] o

r [S

O4]

(u

g/m

3 )

NOx

SO2

NO3

SO4

Case 4: Complex Chemistry, Case 4: Complex Chemistry, Several PrecursorsSeveral Precursors

PM2.5– Includes combustion and chemical formation

products– PM2.5 nitrates + sulfates + OC + EC + SOC

PM10– Includes fine and coarse particles– PM10 PM2.5 + dust

Observation-Based Techniques for O3

– Extent of reaction

– Ratio of O3 to NOX

– NOX concentration

Preparatory TasksPreparatory Tasks

Data Quality Review– Site visits– Graphical analysis– Statistical analysis

Emission Inventory Reconciliation– Ambient ratio analysis– VOC speciation evaluation

Project OverviewProject Overview

A Study on Changes in Specifications for Gasoline and Diesel Fuels in Thailand

Daedalus LLC/ERM Siam

Task 4 - Air Quality AnalysisTask 4 - Air Quality Analysis

Air ToxicsPM10 and PM2.5OzoneCarbon MonoxideNitrogen Dioxide

Task 4 - Air Toxics (Methods)Task 4 - Air Toxics (Methods)

PTT Data Collection– 3 sites, 40 samples– December 1999 and January 2000 – benzene, 1,3-butadiene– formaldehyde, acetaldehyde

– CO, CO2, CH4, TNMHC

Correlate air toxics with COEstimate diesel PM from PM10

Task 4 - Air Toxics (Methods)Task 4 - Air Toxics (Methods)

Calculate 1998 concentrations– PCD 1997-98 CO and PM10 data– Sites with 75% data capture

Estimate 2005 and 2010 levels– Project mobile source NMHC emissions– Project diesel PM10 emissions

Calculate cancer risk– California unit risk factors

Benzene vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites

y = 1.75x

R2 = 0.33

0

4

8

12

0 2 4 6 8

Carbon Monoxide (ppm)

Be

nze

ne

(p

pb

)

Benzene vs. Nonmethane HydrocarbonAll Sites

y = 0.0017x

R2 = 0.08

0

4

8

12

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

Nonmethane Hydrocarbons (ppbC)

Be

nze

ne

(p

pb

)

Maximum Ratio=2.4% Benzene

1,3-Butadiene vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites

y = 0.18x

R2 = 0.53

0

0.5

1

1.5

0 2 4 6 8


1,3

-Bu

tad

ien

e (

pp

b)

1,3-Butadiene vs. BenzeneAll Sites

y = 0.10x

R2 = 0.720

0.5

1

1.5

0 4 8 12

Benzene (ppb)

1,3

-Bu

tad

ien

e (

pp

b)

Carbon Dioxide vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites

y = 107x + 378

R2 = 0.31

0

400

800

1200

1600

0 2 4 6 8


Ca

rbo

n D

iox

ide

(p

pm

)

Global Background Carbon Dioxide =370 ppm

Methane vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites

y = 0.12x + 1.13

R2 = 0.23

0

1

2

3

0 2 4 6 8


Me

tha

ne

(p

pm

)

Global Background Methane=1.7 ppm

Nonmethane Hydrocarbon vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites

y = 948x

R2 = 0.80

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

0 2 4 6 8


NM

HC

(p

pb

C)

Acetaldehyde vs. FormaldehydeAll Sites (Blank-Corrected Data)

y = 0.40x

R2 = 0.73

0

2

4

6

8

0 4 8 12 16 20

Formaldehyde (ppb)

Ac

eta

lde

hyd

e (

pp

b)

Formaldehyde/CO vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites (Blank-Corrected Data)

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 2 4 6 8


Fo

rmal

deh

yde/

CO

(p

pb

/pp

m)

Minimum Ratio = 1.0

Acetaldehyde/CO vs. Carbon MonoxideAll Sites (Blank-Corrected Data)

0

1

2

3

4

0 2 4 6 8


Ace

tald

ehyd

e/C

O (

pp

b/p

pm

)

Minimum Ratio = 0.5

Task 4 - Annual ConcentrationsTask 4 - Annual ConcentrationsAir Toxic Average Range

Diesel PM 5.7 g/m3 3.1 – 9.3

Benzene 2.7 ppb 1.0 – 7.2

1,3-Butadiene 0.3 ppb 0.1 – 0.7

Formaldehyde 1.5 ppb 0.6 – 4.1

Acetaldehyde 0.8 ppb 0.3 – 2.1

Task 4 - Lifetime Cancer RiskTask 4 - Lifetime Cancer Risk per Million People per Million People

Air Toxic Average Range

Diesel PM 1700 900 – 2800

Benzene 250 90 – 660

1,3-Butadiene 100 40 – 280

Formaldehyde 11 4 – 30

Acetaldehyde 4 1 – 10

Task 4 - Lifetime Cancer RiskTask 4 - Lifetime Cancer Risk per Million People per Million People

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1998 2005 2010

Diesel PMBenzene1,3-ButadieneFormaldehydeAcetaldehyde

Task 4 - Air Toxics (Remaining)Task 4 - Air Toxics (Remaining)

Obtain PCD data– Compare to PTT CO, CH4, and NMHC data

as a quality check– Determine if air toxics correlate better

with NOX and PM10

– Include secondary formation of aldehydesDiscuss analysis with PTT and PCD

– Character of Nonsi site– Resolve 1,3-butadiene issues

Task 4 - PM (Methods)Task 4 - PM (Methods)

PCD Data Collection– 16 permanent sites with hourly PM10 data in

1997 and 1998– Filter-based PM10 and TSP not provided

Summarize 24-hr and annual averagesExamine PM10 relationships with air

quality and meteorological dataEstimate 2005 and 2010 levels

– Rollback from 1998 using emissions

Number of Days with 24-Hour-Average PM10Exceeding Standard of 120 ug/m3 in 1997

0

40

80

120

160

200

06T* 09T 10T 11T 12T 13T 14T 16T* 17T* 19T* 20T 22T* 23T 27T 52T 53T 54T

Sites (* denotes <75% data capture)

Nu

mb

er

of

Da

ys

Number of Days with 24-Hour-Average PM10Exceeding Standard of 120 ug/m3 in 1998

0

40

80

120

160

200

09T 10T 11T 12T 13T* 14T 16T* 17T* 19T* 20T* 22T* 23T 27T 52T 53T 54T


Nu

mb

er

of

Da

ys

Peak 24-Hour-Average PM10 in 1997(Standard = 120 ug/m3)

0

100

200

300

400



Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

ug

/m3

)

Peak 24-Hour-Average PM10 in 1997(Standard = 120 ug/m3)

0

100

200

300

400



Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

ug

/m3

)

Annual-Average PM10 in 1997(Standard = 50 ug/m3)

0

50

100

150



Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

ug

/m3

)

Annual-Average PM10 in 1998(Standard = 50 ug/m3)

0

50

100

150



Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n (

ug

/m3

)

Task 4 - PM (Results)Task 4 - PM (Results)

Large reduction from 1997 to 1998– All sites, both averaging times

Annual-average PM ratios– PM10:TSP = 0.3 to 0.6 (4 sites)– PM2.5:PM10 = 0.5 (2 sites)

Din Daeng (54T) is peak site– Strong association with CO and NOX

– Weak with NMHC and SO2

– None with O3 and meteorology


High PM associated with mobile sources, diesel in particular

PM2.5 and PM10 levels exceed all Thai and U.S. standards

Ostro et al. found 10 g/m3 in daily Bangkok PM10 associated with– 1-2% increase in natural mortality– 1-2% increase in cardiovascular mortality– 3-6% increase in respiratory mortality


PM2.5 and PM10 levels likely to be higher in 2005 and 2010– Mobile source diesel PM emissions

increase• 16% from 1998 to 2005

• 22% from 1998 to 2010

– Mobile source NOX emissions increase• 26% from 1998 to 2005

• 40% from 1998 to 2010

Task 4 - PM (Remaining)Task 4 - PM (Remaining)

Discuss analysis with PCD– Obtain hi-vol PM10 and TSP data– Compare hi-vol and BAM PM10 data as

a quality check– Determine causes of large PM10

reduction from 1997 to 1998Compare 1997 air quality and

meteorological data to 1998

Task 4 - CO and NOTask 4 - CO and NO22 (Methods) (Methods)

PCD Data Collection– 14 permanent sites with CO and NO2

– 1997 and 1998 data most complete

Verify NO2 correlation to CO and NOX

Estimate 2005 and 2010 levels– Rollback from 1998 using emissions

– Project mobile source CO and NOX emissions

Peak Nitrogen Dioxide -- Din DaengFebruary 20, 1998

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hour

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

n

CO (pphm)

NO (ppb)

NO2 (ppb)

NOx (ppb)

Ozone (ppb)

SO2 (ppb)

NMHC (pphmC)

THC (pphmC)

PM10 (ug/m3)

NOx matches CO, NMHC, and THC from mobile sources during AM traffic. No correlation with SO2 from stationary sources.

Task 4 - CO and NOTask 4 - CO and NO22 (Results) (Results)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Per

cent

of S

tand

ard

1998 2005 2010

1-Hour CO8-Hour CO1-Hour NO2

Task 4 - CO and NOTask 4 - CO and NO22 (Remaining) (Remaining)

Discuss analysis with PCD– Confirm that no 1998 data from

Junkasame (highest CO in 1996) are available

Task 4 -ConclusionsTask 4 -Conclusions

Air Toxics– PTT data provides a good first estimate of

gaseous air toxic levels in Bangkok– Diesel PM is the major contributor to cancer

risk– Benzene and 1,3-butadiene are also

significant contributors– Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde are minor

factors, but secondary formation still needs to be included


Particulate Matter– Many days over Thai and U.S. standards

for PM2.5 and PM10– High PM levels related to mobile sources

(direct emissions and/or road dust)– PM strongly associated with mortality– Large decrease from 1997 to 1998 may

indicate effect of economic crisis


Carbon Monoxide– Likely to attain 1-hour and 8-hour

standards with existing controlsNitrogen Dioxide

– Only one violation of standard in 1998– Peaks driven by mobile source, rather

than stationary source, NOX emissions

– Peak levels likely to increase in future

Documents

Air Quality Impact Analysis 1.Establish a relationship between emissions and air quality. AQ past = a EM past + b 2.A change in emissions results in an