15
ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research July 20, 2017 Monthly Update GST impact, US price erosion to weigh on Q1… Q1 is expected to be one of the worst quarters in the past many years mainly due to 1) de-stocking of inventories in the domestic market led by GST implementation and 2) sharp price erosion as well as high base in the US and 3) rupee appreciation against all major currencies. We expect I- direct healthcare universe revenues to decline ~4% YoY to | 35714 crore. US and domestic sales (select pack) are expected to decline ~17% and 15%, respectively. European growth is expected to be just 7% YoY, due to the negative impact of currency movement (down 6% YoY). Excluding exclusivities and consolidation, revenues are likely to decline ~5%. On the companies front, we expect Glenmark, Natco, Apollo and Syngene to register double-digit growth. On the other hand, nine out of 19 companies in the I-direct healthcare universe are expected to register negative growth. EBITDA of the I-direct healthcare universe is expected to decline 25% YoY to | 7087 crore. EBITDA margins are likely to decline 543 bps YoY to 19.8%. An adverse product mix, increase in R&D expenditure and fixed cost are likely to impact margins during the quarter. Net profit is expected to increase ~36% YoY to | 3826 crore. The delta vis-à-vis EBITDA will be mainly due to higher depreciation and lower other income. On the major news front, the USFDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) has strongly recommended approval of Biocon/Mylan’s proposed biosimilar Trastuzumab, a biologically similar version of Roche's breast- cancer drug Herceptin. The management is confident of receiving final approval from the agency in early September. Annual sales of Herceptin in the US are ~US$2.6 billion. On the regulatory front, Divi’s Lab has received communication from the USFDA on its intention to lift the import alert ‘’99-32’’ imposed on unit-II of the Vizag API plant. Finally, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.5% YoY to | 9463 crore for June 2017. IPM growth was mainly driven by volumes – 1.4%, new product launches – 2.9% and price hikes- 3.1%. On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 10.1% YoY to | 113739 crore. GST disturbance to be temporary but respite unlikely on US front Almost all players with US franchisees from the I-direct universe are facing intense competition in existing products and client consolidation in the US, leading to price erosion to high single digit to low double digit. Increased USFDA scrutiny and frequencies of inspection/re-inspection is also delaying key approvals in some cases. Apart from this, strengthening of the rupee vis-à-vis the all major currencies is also likely to weigh in the near term. Similarly, other issues/uncertainty in the US, like pricing probe by the Department of Justice (DoJ), adapting to the bidding process and imposition of border tax on imported drugs are other near term overhangs. Back home, domestic growth is also likely to get impacted due to channel disturbances because of GST implementation. Despite bottom fishing in some stocks, the undercurrent remains cautious for the sector. However, we expect the earnings momentum to pick up on the back of incremental product launches largely on speciality, biosimilar and injectables front in the US besides normalising of Indian formulations growth. Health Check Sector View Neutral Index Performance as on July 20, 2017 Return (%) 1M 3M YTD 1Y CNX 500 3 8 24 20 Nifty 3 8 21 16 NSE Pharma 8 -1 -1 -14 Return (%) Stocks Performance Mcap Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 20-Jul Sun Pharma.Inds. 12 -11 -7 -26 140836 Cadila Health. 3 20 51 44 55077 Lupin 5 -18 -22 -32 52680 Dr Reddy's Labs 3 6 -10 -25 45715 Cipla 3 -1 -1 9 45540 Aurobindo Pharma 17 21 15 -4 44949 Biocon 24 12 31 76 24975 Torrent Pharma. 8 -12 -2 -11 21732 Glaxosmit Pharma 4 -2 -6 -25 21684 Glenmark Pharma. 13 -22 -20 -17 19975 Divi's Lab. 17 19 -4 -37 19957 Natco Pharma 3 6 73 69 17483 Apollo Hospitals -2 7 5 -7 17258 Ajanta Pharma -4 -15 -18 -10 12919 Jubilant Life 5 -9 17 135 11747 Alembic Pharma 4 -11 -9 -8 10208 Syngene Int. 6 -9 -12 17 9890 Strides Arcolab 12 -3 -1 -11 9416 Pfizer 3 0 0 -6 8344 Wockhardt 11 -14 -2 -38 7116 Ipca Labs. 2 -19 -9 -1 6093 Unichem Labs. 5 -4 6 -10 2482 Indoco Remedies 9 -13 -21 -33 1898 Return (%) Market cap in | crore Global Indices Performance Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y S&P 500 Pharm Index (US) 0 6 11 1 8 14 NASDAQ Biotechnology (US) 5 10 21 16 9 20 S&P Pharmaceuticals (US) 4 4 12 -1 0 12 DJ Pharma and Biotech (US) 3 8 15 8 9 16 DJ STOXX Healthcare (EU) -4 2 9 2 8 13 TOPIX Pharma Index (Japan) 0 5 5 2 13 18 MSCI World Pharm & Biotech 1 8 16 5 5 14 BI Global Spectalty-Generic Pharm 8 16 0 -21 -13 6 NSE Pharma 8 -1 0 -14 5 15 Return (%) Research Analyst Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Mitesh Shah [email protected] Harshal Mehta [email protected]

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Page 1: Ajanta Pharma -4 -15 -18 -10 12919 Jubilant Life 5 …content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_HealthCheck...Spasmo Proxyvon PlusWockhardt GI 422.0 32.1 Galvus Met Novartis Anti

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

July 20, 2017

Monthly Update

GST impact, US price erosion to weigh on Q1…

Q1 is expected to be one of the worst quarters in the past many years

mainly due to 1) de-stocking of inventories in the domestic market led by

GST implementation and 2) sharp price erosion as well as high base in the

US and 3) rupee appreciation against all major currencies. We expect I-

direct healthcare universe revenues to decline ~4% YoY to | 35714 crore.

US and domestic sales (select pack) are expected to decline ~17% and

15%, respectively. European growth is expected to be just 7% YoY, due to

the negative impact of currency movement (down 6% YoY). Excluding

exclusivities and consolidation, revenues are likely to decline ~5%. On the

companies front, we expect Glenmark, Natco, Apollo and Syngene to

register double-digit growth. On the other hand, nine out of 19 companies

in the I-direct healthcare universe are expected to register negative growth.

EBITDA of the I-direct healthcare universe is expected to decline 25% YoY

to | 7087 crore. EBITDA margins are likely to decline 543 bps YoY to 19.8%.

An adverse product mix, increase in R&D expenditure and fixed cost are

likely to impact margins during the quarter. Net profit is expected to

increase ~36% YoY to | 3826 crore. The delta vis-à-vis EBITDA will be

mainly due to higher depreciation and lower other income.

On the major news front, the USFDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee

(ODAC) has strongly recommended approval of Biocon/Mylan’s proposed

biosimilar Trastuzumab, a biologically similar version of Roche's breast-

cancer drug Herceptin. The management is confident of receiving final

approval from the agency in early September. Annual sales of Herceptin in

the US are ~US$2.6 billion.

On the regulatory front, Divi’s Lab has received communication from the

USFDA on its intention to lift the import alert ‘’99-32’’ imposed on unit-II of

the Vizag API plant.

Finally, the Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.5% YoY to | 9463

crore for June 2017. IPM growth was mainly driven by volumes – 1.4%, new

product launches – 2.9% and price hikes- 3.1%. On a MAT basis, IPM

growth was at 10.1% YoY to | 113739 crore.

GST disturbance to be temporary but respite unlikely on US front

Almost all players with US franchisees from the I-direct universe are facing

intense competition in existing products and client consolidation in the US,

leading to price erosion to high single digit to low double digit. Increased

USFDA scrutiny and frequencies of inspection/re-inspection is also delaying

key approvals in some cases. Apart from this, strengthening of the rupee

vis-à-vis the all major currencies is also likely to weigh in the near term.

Similarly, other issues/uncertainty in the US, like pricing probe by the

Department of Justice (DoJ), adapting to the bidding process and

imposition of border tax on imported drugs are other near term overhangs.

Back home, domestic growth is also likely to get impacted due to channel

disturbances because of GST implementation. Despite bottom fishing in

some stocks, the undercurrent remains cautious for the sector. However,

we expect the earnings momentum to pick up on the back of incremental

product launches largely on speciality, biosimilar and injectables front in the

US besides normalising of Indian formulations growth.

Health Check

Health Check

Sector View

Neutral

Index Performance as on July 20, 2017

Return (%) 1M 3M YTD 1Y

CNX 500 3 8 24 20

Nifty 3 8 21 16

NSE Pharma 8 -1 -1 -14

Return (%)

Stocks Performance

Mcap

Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 20-Jul

Sun Pharma.Inds. 12 -11 -7 -26 140836

Cadila Health. 3 20 51 44 55077

Lupin 5 -18 -22 -32 52680

Dr Reddy's Labs 3 6 -10 -25 45715

Cipla 3 -1 -1 9 45540

Aurobindo Pharma 17 21 15 -4 44949

Biocon 24 12 31 76 24975

Torrent Pharma. 8 -12 -2 -11 21732

Glaxosmit Pharma 4 -2 -6 -25 21684

Glenmark Pharma. 13 -22 -20 -17 19975

Divi's Lab. 17 19 -4 -37 19957

Natco Pharma 3 6 73 69 17483

Apollo Hospitals -2 7 5 -7 17258

Ajanta Pharma -4 -15 -18 -10 12919

Jubilant Life 5 -9 17 135 11747

Alembic Pharma 4 -11 -9 -8 10208

Syngene Int. 6 -9 -12 17 9890

Strides Arcolab 12 -3 -1 -11 9416

Pfizer 3 0 0 -6 8344

Wockhardt 11 -14 -2 -38 7116

Ipca Labs. 2 -19 -9 -1 6093

Unichem Labs. 5 -4 6 -10 2482

Indoco Remedies 9 -13 -21 -33 1898

Return (%)

Market cap in | crore

Global Indices Performance

Company 1M 3M YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y

S&P 500 Pharm Index (US) 0 6 11 1 8 14

NASDAQ Biotechnology (US) 5 10 21 16 9 20

S&P Pharmaceuticals (US) 4 4 12 -1 0 12

DJ Pharma and Biotech (US) 3 8 15 8 9 16

DJ STOXX Healthcare (EU) -4 2 9 2 8 13

TOPIX Pharma Index (Japan) 0 5 5 2 13 18

MSCI World Pharm & Biotech 1 8 16 5 5 14

BI Global Spectalty-Generic Pharm 8 16 0 -21 -13 6

NSE Pharma 8 -1 0 -14 5 15

Return (%)

Research Analyst

Siddhant Khandekar

[email protected]

Mitesh Shah

[email protected]

Harshal Mehta

[email protected]

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

GST impact - Inventory days reduce sharply in June

Compared to May end, there was a steep reduction in ~24 days

industry inventory days. The primary sales continue to remain subdued

in the first week of July while stockists have not built up inventory again

– they continue to operate with a 17-day inventory. Causes could be (a)

stockist software issues settling down (b) goods in transit c) GST

registrations pending in few cases

July is expected to result in higher primary sales with streamlining of

software issues as well as GST registration at stockists. There could be a

slow and gradual recovery over coming weeks of the pre-GST inventory

levels at stockists

Exhibit 1: Reduction in Inventory days due to GST implementation

Apr End May End 7th June 14th June 7th Jul

Pharma Market 41 40 27 24 18

Sun Pharma 27 25 21 18 16

Cipla 53 53 31 27 22

Zydus Cadila 48 48 37 31 22

Dr Reddys 44 39 30 27 23

Torrent 33 31 22 20 15

Lupin 43 41 28 27 19

Glenmark 44 45 32 27 17

Ranbaxy 44 41 33 29 22

Natco 33 27 18 14 9

IPCA 35 34 26 23 14

Unichem 50 43 32 28 21

Alembic 47 49 34 32 21

Ajanta Pharma 33 37 26 24 16

Indoco 46 42 33 32 19

Biocon 55 55 38 36 22

Company

Inventory Days (2017)

Source: AIOCD, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

IPM grows 8% YoY in June

The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.5% YoY to | 9463 crore

for June. IPM growth was driven by volumes – 1.4%, new product

launches – 2.9% and price hikes- 3.1%

The fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market de-grew 11%,

while the non FDC market grew 7.9%

Drugs under the NLEM list declined 3.5% to | 957 crore while non-

NLEM drugs posted growth of 8.9% to | 8090 crore. Volume growth in

NLEM and non-NLEM was 1.6% and -0.3%, respectively

Among companies under I-direct coverage, Ajanta, Cadila, Biocon, Dr

Reddy’s, Glenmark, Lupin, Indoco, Natco and Sun Pharma have

registered higher than industry growth rate

Therapy wise, nine therapies have outpaced IPM growth. Notable

among them with growth rates are: anti-diabetic – 18.3%, vaccines –

29.0% and cardiac – 10.7%. On the other hand, anti-infectives grew a

mere 3.1% YoY

In all, 222 new brands were launched in June 2017

On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 10.1% YoY to | 113739 crore

Domestic and MNC companies have grown at 6.9% and 10.1%,

respectively, in June 2017

Exhibit 2: Domestic formulations - growth trend

[

10.4

8.0

11.3

17.5

13.5

9.0

15.2

7.5

20

7.1

9.9

8.6

7.2

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

May-16

Jun-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Sep-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Dec-16

Jan-17

Feb-17

Mar-17

Apr-17

May-17

(%

)

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Companies growth in domestic market in June, 2017

7.7

2.5

18.3

2.6

8.4 8.6

10.1

8.0

3.7

13.4 14.2

12.1

(3.4)

9.8

7.8 8.3

4.2

19.0 17.6

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Ajanta

Ale

mbic

Bio

con

Cip

la

Dr Reddy's

GS

K P

harm

a

Gle

nm

ark

Indoco

Ipca

Lupin

Natco

Novartis

Pfiz

er

Sanofi In

dia

Sun P

harm

a

Torrent

Unic

hem

Wockhardt

Cadila

(%

)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Therapy wise performance (| crore)

Therapy June' 17 June' 16 YoY (%) May' 17 MoM (%)

Anti-Infectives 1259 1221 3.1 1219 3.3

Cardiac 1194 1079 10.7 1205 -0.9

GI 1176 1108 6.2 1171 0.5

Anti Diabetic 904 764 18.3 893 1.1

Vitamins 858 844 1.6 864 -0.7

Respiratory 552 535 3.0 555 -0.5

Pain 636 604 5.3 644 -1.2

Derma 572 530 8.1 568 0.8

Neuro 569 540 5.3 575 -1.2

Gynaecological 531 487 9.0 516 2.8

Anti-Neoplastics 188 185 1.7 198 -4.8

Vaccines 191 148 29.0 185 3.3

Ophthal 186 174 6.5 187 -0.7

Hormones 163 139 17.2 160 2.0

Blood Related 131 111 18.2 128 2.4

Urology 112 108 3.8 115 -2.2

Others 108 96 12.8 100 7.6

Sex Stimulants 54 45 19.4 56 -4.2

Anti Malarials 35 40 -12.3 32 8.9

Stomatologicals 44 42 4.7 44 -1.1

Source: AIOCD data base

Top brands in Indian pharma market (MAT; | crore)

Brand Company Therapy June' 17 YoY (%)

Mixtard Abbott Anti Diabetic 517.0 6.1

Glycomet Gp USV Anti Diabetic 433.0 26.4

Spasmo Proxyvon PlusWockhardt GI 422.0 32.1

Galvus Met Novartis Anti Diabetic 362.0 24.7

Lantus Sanofi India Anti Diabetic 340.0 27.1

Janumet MSD Anti Diabetic 310.0 24.4

Liv 52 Himalaya GI 296.0 9.2

Augmentin GSK Anti-Infectives 295.0 2.5

Novomix Abbott Anti-Infectives 284.0 49.7

Clavam Alkem Anti-Infectives 280.0 10.4

Source: AIOCD data base

Industry acute to chronic therapy ratio percentage…

Acute,

53998,

47.8%

Chronic,

35812,

31.7%

Sub-

Chronic,

23077,

20.4%

Source: AIOCD data base; As per AIOCD MAT Apr 2017

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

IPM grows 8% in Q1FY18

The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.6% YoY to | 28431

crore in Q1FY18. Growth was mainly driven by volumes increase – 2.6%

followed by new product launches – 2.1% and price hikes- 3.0%

The fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market de-grew 14.9% to

| 464 crore

Drugs under NLEM list declined 5.5% to | 2911 crore while non-NLEM

drugs posted growth of 9.5% to | 24243 crore. Volume growth in NLEM

was 2.6% while for non-NLEM growth was 0.4%

Among companies under I-direct coverage, Biocon, Dr Reddy’s,

Glenmark, Indoco, Lupin, Torrent and Cadila have outperformed IPM

growth

Therapy wise, 10 therapies have outpaced IPM growth. Notable among

them with growth rates- anti diabetic –17.6%, cardiac – 9.4% and derma

– 10.6%

Domestic companies have grown 7.7% while MNC companies have

grown 7.2% in Q1FY18

Exhibit 4: Domestic formulations - quarterly growth trend

6.6

3.8

6.7

2.2

-0.4

7.9

4.83.9

2.6

4.8

4.6

5.0

5.2

4.5

2.5

1.8

1.32.1

3.3

3.6

3.3

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.33.0

14.8

12.0

15.0

11.0

7.8

14.1

10.3

8.67.6

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18

(%

)

Volumes Price Increases New Products

[

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Company wise growth trends in Q1FY18

7.7

2.5

18.3

2.6

8.4 8.610.1

8.0

3.7

13.412.1

(3.4)

9.8

7.8 8.3

4.2

19.017.6

(7.0)

(2.0)

3.0

8.0

13.0

18.0

23.0

28.0

Aja

nta

Ale

mbic

Bio

con

Cip

la

Dr R

eddy's

GS

K P

harm

a

Gle

nm

ark

Indoco

Ipca

Lupin

Novartis

Pfiz

er

Sanofi India

Sun P

harm

a

Torrent

Unic

hem

Wockhardt

Cadila

(%

)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Therapy wise performance (| crore)

Therapy Q1FY18 Q1FY17 YoY (%) Q4FY17 QoQ (%)

Anti-Infectives 3713 3678 1.0 3639 2.0

Cardiac 3616 3307 9.4 3501 3.3

GI 3510 3274 7.2 3107 13.0

Anti Diabetic 2694 2292 17.6 2515 7.1

Vitamins 2570 2478 3.7 2309 11.3

Respiratory 1720 1650 4.3 2139 -19.6

Pain 1934 1817 6.4 1815 6.5

Derma 1736 1569 10.6 1691 2.6

Neuro 1729 1647 5.0 1678 3.0

Gynaecological 1564 1436 8.9 1455 7.5

Anti-Neoplastics 589 546 7.9 594 -0.8

Vaccines 569 442 28.6 511 11.3

Ophthal 572 535 6.9 502 13.8

Hormones 482 431 11.7 460 4.7

Blood Related 385 329 17.3 354 9.0

Urology 340 324 4.9 315 7.6

Others 309 287 7.7 297 4.1

Sex Stimulants 169 140 21.1 177 -4.3

Stomatologicals 98 114 -13.8 81 20.7

Anti Malarials 132 125 5.6 117 12.5

Source: AIOCD data base

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Domestic Formulations – I-Direct Coverage universe data summary

Exhibit 6: Domestic formulations – Market Share (MAT Value June 2017)

[

Market Share8.6%

4.7%4.4%

3.3%

2.3% 2.2% 2.4%

1.5% 1.3%0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%

0.3%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Sun

Cip

la

Cadila

Lupin

Torrent

Dr. R

eddys

Gle

nm

ark

IPC

A

Ale

mbic

Unic

hem

Natco

Indoco

Aja

nta

Bio

con

Market Share

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Acute vs. Chronic vs. Sun Chronic (MAT Value June 2017)

39

56

20

4452

42

82

65

32

90

2234

51 51

5024

73

43 2835

628

51

0

53

60 31 34

1120

8 1320 23

13 718

10

25

618 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ajanta

Ale

mbic

Bio

con

Cip

la

Dr. R

eddys

Gle

nm

ark

Indoco

IPCA

Lupin

Natco

SU

N

Torrent

Unic

hem

Cadila

%

Acute Chronic Sub Chronic

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Exhibit 8: Top five brands in value terms (MAT Value June 2017)

[5

Sun Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Volini Pain 240

2 Istamet Anti Diabetic 220

3 Rosuvas Cardiac 216

4 Gemer Anti Diabetic 202

5 Levipil Neuro 179

Cipla Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Foracort Respiratory 231

2 Duolin Respiratory 180

3 Seroflo Respiratory 152

4 Budecort Respiratory 144

5 Asthalin Respiratory 143

Cadila Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Skinlite Derma 184

2 Deriphyllin Respiratory 115

3 Pantodac GI 115

4 Mifegest Kit Gynaecological 113

5 Atorva Cardiac 109

Lupin Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Gluconorm-G Anti Diabetic 191

2 Budamate Respiratory 106

3 Tonact Cardiac 93

4 Rablet-D GI 64

5 Rablet GI 55

Torrent Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Shelcal Vitamins 182

2 Chymoral FortePain 107

3 Nikoran Cardiac 99

4 Azulix-Mf Anti Diabetic 88

5 Nebicard Cardiac 78

Dr. Reddys Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Omez GI 110

2 Omez D GI 105

3 Atarax Respiratory 66

4 Econorm GI 65

5 Razo D GI 62

Glenmark Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Telma Cardiac 171

2 Telma H Cardiac 168

3 Ascoril Plus Respiratory 122

4 Candid Derma 109

5 Candid-B Derma 96

IPCA Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Zerodol Sp Pain 121

2 Zerodol P Pain 96

3 Hcqs Anti Malarials 83

4 Larinate Anti Malarials 64

5 Rapither-Ab Anti Malarials 55

Alembic Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Azithral Anti-Infectives 148

2 Althrocin Anti-Infectives 78

3 Gestofit Gynaecological 60

4 Wikoryl Respiratory 59

5 Roxid Anti-Infectives 51

Unichem Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Losar H Cardiac 103

2 Losar Cardiac 74

3 Ampoxin Anti-Infectives 73

4 Unienzyme GI 60

5 Vizylac GI 35

Natco Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Hepcinat Anti-Infectives 250

2 Geftinat Anti-Neoplastics 138

3 Veenat Anti-Neoplastics 103

4 Hepcinat Lp Anti-Infectives 99

5 Erlonat Anti-Neoplastics 97

Indoco Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Febrex Plus Respiratory 86

2 Oxipod Anti-Infectives 49

3 Cyclopam GI 48

4 Sensodent-K Stomatologicals 38

5 Cital Urology 35

Ajanta Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Met Xl Cardiac 81

2 Atorfit Cv Cardiac 50

3 Melacare Derma 48

4 Feburic Pain 22

5 Rosufit Cv Cardiac 22

Biocon Brand Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Insugen Anti Diabetic 99

2 Basalog Anti Diabetic 70

3 Erypro Blood Related 32

4 Canmab Anti-Neoplastics 31

5 Insugen R Anti Diabetic 21

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Exhibit 9: Top five Therapies in Value term (MAT Value June 2017)

[5

Sun Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Cardiac 1849

2 Neuro 1692

3 GI 1139

4 Anti-Infectives 1001

5 Anti Diabetic 926

Cipla Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Respiratory 1686

2 Anti-Infectives 1284

3 Cardiac 663

4 GI 409

5 Urology 269

Cadila Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Anti-Infectives 754

2 Cardiac 694

3 GI 560

4 Respiratory 486

5 Pain 470

Lupin Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Cardiac 922

2 Anti-Infectives 689

3 Anti Diabetic 533

4 Respiratory 493

5 GI 308

Torrent Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Cardiac 776

2 Neuro 445

3 GI 405

4 Vitamins 363

5 Anti Diabetic 196

Dr. Reddys Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 GI 527

2 Anti-Neoplastics 349

3 Cardiac 345

4 Respiratory 242

5 Anti-Infectives 194

Glenmark Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Derma 753

2 Cardiac 602

3 Respiratory 433

4 Anti-Infectives 379

5 Anti Diabetic 171

IPCA Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Pain 433

2 Anti Malarials 310

3 Cardiac 273

4 GI 125

5 Anti-Infectives 101

Alembic Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Anti-Infectives 330

2 Cardiac 222

3 Respiratory 194

4 GI 191

5 Gynaecological 176

Unichem Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Cardiac 425

2 Anti-Infectives 158

3 Neuro 142

4 GI 113

5 Anti Diabetic 55

Natco Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Anti-Neoplastics 479

2 Anti-Infectives 458

3 Pain 36

4 Blood Related 3

5 Neuro 1

Indoco Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Respiratory 150

2 Anti-Infectives 143

3 Stomatologicals 124

4 GI 109

5 Vitamins 58

Ajanta Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Cardiac 269

2 Ophthal 171

3 Derma 127

4 Pain 34

5 Vitamins 32

Biocon Therapy Sales (|cr)

1 Anti Diabetic 227

2 Anti-Neoplastics 76

3 Blood Related 33

4 Cardiac 16

5 Anti-Infectives 10

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Exhibit 10: Summary of USFDA approvals for June, 2017

[5

Company Drug Name Therapeutic Area Innovator company Generic Version of Market Size

Cadila Healthcare Mirtazapine Cns Organon Usa Remeron Soltab NA

Cadila Healthcare Levofloxacin Anti-Infective Janssen Pharma Levaquin US$1.45 billion

Cadila Healthcare Mesalamine Gi Shire Lialda US$ 714 million

Sun Pharma Diltiazem Hydrochloride Anti-Hypertension Valeant International Cardizem Cd NA

Aurobindo Pharma  Pseudoephedrine Hydrochloride Anti-Biotic Mcneil Cons Sudafed 12 Hour NA

Cadila Healthcare Ezetimibe Obesity Merck Zetia US$2.7 billion

Cadila Healthcare Acyclovir Sodium Anti-Viral Gsk Pharma Zovirax NA

Aurobindo Pharma  Sevelamer Carbonate Nephrology Genzyme Renvela US$ 140 million

Aurobindo Pharma  Ethinyl Estradiol; Norethindrone Acetate Oral-Contraceptive Warner Chilcott Femhrt US$ 39.9 million

Cadila Healthcare Diflunisal Pain Management Merck Dolobid NA

Sun Pharma Felbamate Cns Medpointe Pharm Hlc Felbatol NA

Cadila Healthcare Eletriptan Hydrobromide Pain Management Pfizer Relpax NA

Alembic Pharma Candesartan Cilexetil Anti-Hypertension Astrazeneca Atacand NA

Alembic Pharma Amantadine Hydrochloride Antiviral Endo Pharma Symmetrel US$ 40.1 million

Glenmark Pharma Indomethacin Anti-Inflammatory Iroko Pharma Tivorbex NA

Cadila Healthcare Entecavir Hepatitis B Bristol Myers Squibb Baraclude US$ 206 million

Natco Pharma Azacitidine Anti-Cancer Celgene Vidaza NA

Aurobindo Pharma  Ibuprofen Pain Management Abbvie Vicoprofen NA

Cadila Healthcare Oxybutynin Chloride Urology Janssen Pharma Ditropan Xl NA

Cadila Healthcare Phentermine Hydrochloride Obesity Teva Adipex-P NA

Jubilant Lifesciences Bupropion Hydrochloride Anti-Depressant Gsk Wellbutrin NA

Torrent Pharma Anagrelide Hydrochloride Cvs Shire Agrylin NA

Company Drug Name Therapeutic Area Innovator company Generic Version of Market Size

Alembic Pharma Asenapine Cns Forest Labs Saphris NA

Aurobindo Pharma Cigensa Norethindrone Acetate Tablets Urology Teva Aygestin NA

Glenmark Pharma Saxagliptin Anti-Diabetic Astrazeneca Onglyza US$ 820 million

Aurobindo Pharma  Linagliptin Anti-Diabetic Boehringer Ingelheim Tradjenta NA

Glenmark Pharma Solifenacin Succinate Urology Astellas Pharma Vesicare US$ 1.1 billion

Glenmark Pharma Indomethacin Extended-Release Capsules Iroko Pharmaceuticals Indocin Sr US$ 6.3 million

Cipla  Olopatadine Hydrochloride Opthalmic Alcon Pharms Pataday US$ 235 million

Aurobindo Pharma Quetiapine Fumarate Cns Astrazeneca Seroquel NA

Alembic Pharma Vardenafil Hydrochloride Erectile Dysfunction Bayer Staxyn US$ 9.5 million

Tentative Approvals

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Exhibit 11: US patent litigations [5

Month Innovator ANDA Filer Brand Name API Used for

Jan-17 Sanofi-Aventis Biocon AUBAGIO teriflunomide multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Sanofi-Aventis Teva Pharma AUBAGIO teriflunomide multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Sanofi-Aventis MSN Laboratories AUBAGIO teriflunomide multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Sanofi-Aventis Hetero Labs AUBAGIO teriflunomide multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Sanofi-Aventis Zydus Pharma (USA) AUBAGIO teriflunomide multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 AbbVie Inc Aurobindo Pharma KALETRA ritonavir HIV

Jan-17 Novartis AG Aurobindo Pharma GILENYA fingolimod multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Novartis AG Aurobindo Pharma GILENYA fingolimod multiple sclerosis

Jan-17 Shionogi Inc Aurobindo Pharma FORTAMET metformin Type 2 diabetes

Jan-17 Dow Pharma Taro Pharma ONEXTON cindamycin phosphate, benzoyl peroxide Acne

Jan-17 Aptalis Pharma Zydus Pharma (USA) CANASA mesalamine Ulcerative proctitis

Feb-17 Pfizer Inc Torrent Pharma TOVIAZ glatiramer acetate Incontinence

Feb-17 Biomarin Pharma Dr. Reddy's Lab KUVAN sapropterin Phenylketonuria

Feb-17 AstraZeneca AB Dr. Reddy's Lab FASLODEX fulvestrant Breast cancer

Feb-17 iCeutica Pty Ltd Lupin Ltd VIVLODEX meloxicam Osteoarthritis pain

Feb-17 Pfizer Inc Sun Pharma XELJANZ XR tofacitinib citrate Rheumatoid arthritis

Mar-17 Pfizer Inc Cadila Healthcare XELJANZ XR tofacitinib citrate Rheumatoid arthritis

Mar-17 Dow Pharma Taro Pharma Onexton cindamycin phosphate, benzoyl peroxide Acne

Mar-17 Novartis, Mitsubishi Tanabe PharmaAlembic GILENYA fingolimod multiple sclerosis

Mar-17 Teva Lupin PROAIR HFA albuterol sulfate Respiratory

Mar-17 ViiV Healthcare;Vertex Pharma Lupin LEXIVA fosamprenavir HIV

Mar-17 Alcon Research Lupin PAZEO olopatadine Conjunctivitis

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Aurobindo ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Lupin ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Torrent Pharma ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Unichem ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Dr. Reddy's Lab ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Indoco Remedies ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Sun Pharma ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 BMS ; Pfizer Cadila Healthcare ELIQUIS apixaban Anticoagulant

Apr-17 Celgene Corp Cadila Healthcare REVLIMID lenalidomide Oncology

Apr-17 Elli Lilly Dr. Reddy's Lab CIALIS tadalafil erectile dysfunction

Apr-17 Millenium Pharma Cadila Healthcare REVLIMID lenalidomide Oncology

Apr-17 Bayer Pharma Taro Pharma Xarelto Rivaroxaban Blood Thinner

Apr-17 Bayer Pharma Aurobindo Pharma Xarelto Rivaroxaban Blood Thinner

May-17 Takeda Pharma Torrent Pharma Nesina Alogliptin Diabetes

May-17 Takeda Pharma Glenmark Qudexy XR Topiramate Epilepsy

Jun-17 Allergan Taro Pharma Aczone Dapsone Leprosy

Jun-17 Genentech Sun Pharma Tarceva Erlotinib Cancer

Jun-17 Bayer AG Alembic Pharma Xarelto Rivaroxaban Blood Thinner

Jun-17 Teva Dr Reddy's Lab Copaxone Glatiramer Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Valeant Pharma Sun Pharma Uceris Budesonide Ulcerative Colitis

Jun-17 Omeros Corp Lupin Omidria Phenylephrine And Ketorolac Pupil Dilation

Jun-17 Amgen Lupin Sensipar Cinacalcet Calcium Reducer

Jun-17 Biogen Aurobindo Pharma Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Sun Pharma Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Cipla Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Glenmark Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Lupin Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Torrent Pharma Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Forest Laboratories Sun Pharma Linzess Linaclotide Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Jun-17 Biogen Torrent Pharma Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jun-17 Biogen Cadila healthcare Tecfidera Dimethyl Fumarate Multiple Sclerosis

Jul-17 Janssen Pharma Aurobindo Pharma Invokana Canagliflozin Diabetes

Jul-17 Actelion Pharma Sun Pharma Veletri Epoprostenol Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Monthly Sector News

M&As, Demergers, Tie-ups and JVs

Glenmark enters into agreement with APC Therapeutics (US)

Glenmark has entered into licensing agreement with APC Therapeutics (US)

focused on building a portfolio of immuno-oncology (IO) therapies, for

exclusive rights to a small molecule, oncology compound based on antigen

presenting cell (APC) biology. Under the agreement, APC Therapeutics will

receive development milestones and sales royalty payments.

Jubilant Lifesciences’ ties up with food and nutrition player

Jubilant Lifesciences has tied up with Barentz to work together within the

food and nutrition market in South East Asia. Jubilant Lifesciences will

position the partnership as a leading distribution player in nutrient

fortification.

Cadila enters into agreement with Phibro animal health

Cadila Healthcare and Phibro animal health have announced intention to

enter into long-term arrangement to license Phibro’s poultry vaccine

technologies and know-how to construct Cadila Healthcare new

manufacturing facility to serve poultry market in India

Price hikes, new launches, recalls, approvals

Lupin launches gTopicort cream in US

Lupin has launched gTopicort emollient cream and gTopicort cream

(Inflammation) in the US. Both creams had combined US sales of $38

million (IMS MAT April 2017).

Glenmark gets UK pharmacy license for its ant malarial drug

Glenmark has received approval from UK MHRA for Maloff Protect (anti-

malarial) as a pharmacy license

ODAC panel recommendation improves prospect of Trastuzumab approval

The USFDA Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) has strongly

recommended approval of Biocon/Mylan’s proposed biosimilar

Trastuzumab, a biologically similar version of Roche's breast-cancer drug

Herceptin. During the discussion, ODAC determined that no clinically

meaningful differences exist between the biosimilar product and Herceptin

in terms of safety, purity and potency.

Aurobindo receives USFDA Approval for Sevelamer Carbonate tablets

Aurobindo Pharma has received USFDA approval for generic version of

Genzyme Corp’s Renvela tablet (Sevelamer Carbonate) 800 mg. The

product is being launched immediately. Renvela tablets are indicated for the

control of serum phosphorus in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD)

on dialysis. The approved product has an estimated market size of US$1.9

billion for the 12 months ending May 2017 according to IMS.

Cadila launches Mesalamine delayed release tablets in US

Cadila has commercially launched generic version of Lialda (Mesalamine

delayed release tablets; USP 1.2g) in the US market under exclusivity. Lialda

is indicated for the treatment of mild to moderate ulcerative colitis. The

estimated brand sales for Mesalamine Delayed-Release Tablets USP, 1.2 g

is US$1.1 billion as per IMS MAT April 2017.

Lawsuits, court rulings, settlements, regulatory issues

Dr Reddy’s receives USFDA observation for Srikakulam (SEZ) unit 1

Dr Reddy’s has received one form 483 observation from USFDA for

Srikakulam formulations plant (SEZ) unit 1. Unit 1 is the fourth facility to be

inspected recently in the same region recently, by the USFDA. However, Dr

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Reddy’s has not disclosed the nature of the USFDA observation, which

prima facie looks procedural in nature.

Ipca clarifies on recent USFDA import alert

Ipca has communicated that the recent USFDA import alert with respect to

banning all products from Ipca facilities (Pithampur, Silvassa and Ratlam) to

the US was related to withdrawal of exemption on certain drugs and no new

inspection was carried out by the USFDA.

Cadila Healthcare receives EIR for Moraiya plant

Cadila Healthcare has received EIR from USFDA for its Moraiya

manufacturing plant. The plant has been inspected from February 6-15,

2017 with zero 483 observations.

Aurobindo Hyderabad facility clears USFDA inspection

Aurobindo Pharma’s Hyderabad manufacturing facility Unit-7 (SEZ) has

cleared USFDA inspection with zero form 483 observations.

NPPA revises prices of Schedule 1 drugs

NPPA has notified the revised ceiling prices of 761 drugs, which are part of

the Schedule 1 of the Drug Price Control Order (DPCO) 2013. The price

increase after the GST rollout would be marginal as the base price has been

lowered.

Unichem Goa facility receives USFDA clearance

Unichem laboratories has received EIR from USFDA for its Goa facility.

Pharma companies FDC woes to continue

The Delhi High Court has denied any interim relief to various

pharmaceutical companies over the government's ban on 344 Fixed Dose

Combination (FDC) drugs.

Biogen sues Indian drugmakers

As per media sources, Biogen has sued 13 drugmakers (inclusive of Sun

Pharma, Torrent Pharma, Cipla and Glenmark) for patent infringement in a

bid to block generic versions of its blockbuster multiple sclerosis drug

Tecfidera.

ANSM finds glitches in Biocon’s drug product facility

On behalf of EMA, French regulatory authority ANSM inspected Biocon’s

Bangalore facility in March 2017. The agency has given GMP approval to

Biocon's drug substance facility while the drug product facility has been

handed with certain observations. As per the company's management, the

observations are minor in nature (related to simple plant modification) and

are unrelated to data integrity or product related issues. The company’s

drug product facility could be re-inspected by ANSM to verify the

implementation of CAPA by the company.

Critical component of USFDA import alert clause for Divis removed

Divi’s Laboratories has received communication from the USFDA of its

intention to lift the import alert ‘’99-32’’ imposed on unit-II of Vizag API

plant. Clause 99-32 relates to refusal of USFDA inspection by the firm,

leading to confiscation of products from the firm. Additional product

exemption and lifting of clause 99-32 indicates affirmative response from

the USFDA with regard to remedial process.

Torrent Pharma receives fresh USFDA observations

Torrent Pharma’s Dahej plant has received five form 483 observations from

the USFDA. The observations were in response to USFDA visit to the Dahej

plant during June 26-30, 2017.

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Others

Cadila Healthcare begins Zyan 1 trials

Cadila Healthcare has started phase 2 trials of Zyan 1 (treatment for

anaemia).

Promoter stake sale of Ajanta Pharma

Promoters of Ajanta Pharma (APL) have sold 3.07% equity shares in APL

and its stake has reduced to 70.71%.

Alembic’s anti-cancer facility inaugurated

Alembic Pharma has inaugurated its anti-cancer facility at Panelav. The

facility has been created at an investment of | 300 crore.

Rating agency revises Glenmark credit outlook

Credit rating agency Fitch has revised the outlook of Glenmark

Pharmaceuticals to ‘stable’ from ‘positive’. The rating agency has, however,

affirmed the long-term issuer default rating of the pharmaceutical company

at ‘BB’.

Exhibit 12: One year forward P/E of NSE Pharma vs. Nifty

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

x

NSE Pharma Nifty

2.6% Premium

[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare)

Company I-Direct CMP TP Rating M Cap

Code (|) (|) (| Cr) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1464 1,880 Buy 12884.1 110.0 56.6 58.2 69.8 13.3 25.9 25.2 21.0 46.2 41.8 33.5 32.1 37.3 33.2 26.8 25.6

Alembic Pharma ALEMPHA 546 605 Hold 10293.0 38.3 21.2 21.7 28.3 14.3 25.8 25.2 19.3 51.6 25.9 20.9 23.6 45.1 21.2 18.8 20.9

Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 1252 1,400 Buy 17415.7 13.2 12.8 16.5 33.3 94.8 97.5 75.7 37.6 6.6 6.0 6.7 10.8 5.3 4.9 5.9 10.9

Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA 674 755 Buy 38680.0 33.9 38.3 37.1 42.1 19.9 17.6 18.1 16.0 23.3 24.8 19.6 19.9 28.1 23.9 19.0 17.9

Biocon BIOCON 419 375 Hold 25119.0 7.7 10.3 7.5 13.4 54.3 40.5 56.1 31.2 9.3 11.4 9.5 15.5 11.5 12.8 8.7 13.9

Cadila Healthcare CADHEA 536 420 Hold 54821.4 15.0 13.7 14.9 20.1 35.8 39.1 35.9 26.7 26.7 13.4 15.0 18.5 28.6 20.2 18.9 21.3

Cipla CIPLA 566 470 Hold 45538.0 18.5 12.9 17.8 25.3 30.6 44.0 31.7 22.4 12.0 8.0 11.0 14.5 12.5 8.1 10.4 13.1

Divi's Lab DIVLAB 757 740 Hold 20096.0 41.5 39.7 43.0 46.1 18.2 19.1 17.6 16.4 30.5 25.1 23.6 22.2 25.7 19.7 18.5 17.3

Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 2751 2,610 Hold 45596.6 141.4 70.6 102.3 146.1 19.5 39.0 26.9 18.8 15.3 6.1 10.1 13.9 19.2 9.5 12.4 15.4

Glenmark Pharma GLEPHA 708 910 Buy 19970.5 32.2 46.9 40.5 48.3 22.0 15.1 17.5 14.6 16.2 19.2 16.4 17.7 21.2 25.9 18.5 18.2

Indoco Remedies INDREM 209 180 Hold 1922.7 9.4 8.4 7.7 11.4 22.2 25.0 27.0 18.3 12.9 8.4 8.9 12.1 14.8 12.0 10.2 13.4

Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 482 525 Hold 6081.5 7.4 15.4 17.6 27.9 65.3 31.3 27.3 17.3 4.5 8.7 9.3 13.2 4.1 7.9 8.4 12.0

Jubilant Life JUBLIF 712 845 Buy 11438.0 26.0 36.1 44.3 59.1 27.4 19.7 16.1 12.0 12.0 13.3 14.8 17.6 14.2 16.8 17.3 19.0

Lupin LUPIN 1170 1,335 Buy 52831.4 50.4 56.6 51.4 66.5 23.2 20.7 22.8 17.6 17.8 16.6 13.8 16.0 20.3 18.9 15.0 16.8

Natco Pharma NATPHA 987 1,055 Buy 17210.3 9.0 27.8 20.6 20.3 109.2 35.5 47.9 48.5 16.0 33.6 22.9 20.3 12.2 29.5 18.7 16.2

Sun Pharma SUNPHA 586 550 Hold 140523.9 23.4 29.0 20.3 25.5 25.0 20.2 28.9 23.0 18.6 19.8 13.5 15.0 18.0 19.0 12.0 13.4

Syngene Int. SYNINT 496 515 Hold 9922.0 11.1 14.3 14.5 18.5 43.5 33.6 33.1 26.0 14.1 16.8 16.4 18.8 21.6 20.3 17.4 18.2

Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1295 1,095 Hold 21921.1 110.9 55.2 45.1 57.7 11.7 23.5 28.7 22.5 46.5 18.9 15.8 17.7 53.7 21.5 15.5 17.2

Unichem Lab UNILAB 273 235 Hold 2485.3 12.3 12.0 11.8 16.6 22.2 22.8 23.2 16.4 13.8 12.0 11.0 13.9 11.7 10.5 9.5 12.0

RoE (%)EPS (|) PE(x) RoCE (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them

as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the

notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Sector view:

Over weight compared to index

Equal weight compared to index

Under weight compared to index

Index here refers to BSE 500

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No. 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION

We /I, Siddhant Khandekar CA-INTER, Mitesh Shah MS (Finance), Harshal Mehta (MTech) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed

in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or wil l be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which

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ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking

and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts

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The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and

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material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

It is confirmed that Siddhant Khandekar CA-INTER Mitesh Shah MS (Finance), Harshal Mehta (M.Tech) Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned

in the report in the preceding twelve months.

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the

publication of the research report.

Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject

company/companies mentioned in this report.