Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Iran-11

Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Iran-11

"Any threat to one country is a threat to all... No country can solve regional problems without the help of others," Mohammad Javad Zarif said at a news conference in Kuwait. Most Gulf Arab states are worried that Iran's July 14 accord with world powers will hasten detente between Tehran and Washington, emboldening Tehran to increase backing for Middle Eastern allies at odds with Gulf Arab countries.

The first Iranian cargo of 690 tons of edible oil was exported to Iraq in last week, said the Managing Director of Iran’s State Trade Organization Ali Ghanbari, according to Iran’s Agriculture Ministry.

While the Iran nuclear deal has thrown the entire Arab world into political disarray, and while Turkey is increasingly at war with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the “moderate” Kurds are looking at what is apparently the best chance they have had in decades to get a Kurdish state.

In stark contrast to the U.S. government's measured approach to countering ISIS in Iraq through the deployment of military advisors and stand-off airstrikes, Iran flatly offered Iraq an "open check" to battle the Islamic extremists, the Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. said

Is this Iran’s time in the Middle East? By Mehrdad FarahmandBBC Persian, Jul 2015, Cairo "A wild beast unleashed". This damning verdict from Saudi columnist Abdul Rahman Rashed, writing in the influential Ahsarq Al Awsat newspaper, largely sums up the tone of reaction to Iran's nuclear deal across the Arab media.And judging from the conversations I've had with ordinary Egyptians here in Cairo - and the conversations on Arabic social media - these fears are very much shared by ordinary people.For many Sunni Arab governments and their people, the worry is that with international sanctions lifted Shia Iran will be able to expand operations in its client states across the Middle East.That means more military support for Bashar Assad in Syria, for Shia militias in Iraq, for the Houthi rebels in Yemen and for Hezbollah in Lebanon.Much has been made in the Arab press in recent days of a comment by the former UN Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi after a trip to Tehran in 2013."We are not an important country in the region," he was told by his Iranian hosts. "We are THE important country in the region." Viewed through this perspective the nuclear deal, for many in the Arab world, is seen as nothing less than a bid to reshape the Middle East and re-establish the Persian Empire.Long-term strategy A decade of protracted negotiations, they say, reflects a long-term Iranian strategy planned with the exemplary patience that comes from mastering the art of weaving Persian rugs. So how much of this is actually based on reality?One key issue to bear in mind here is time. It's clear from a detailed perusal of the terms, timetables and commitments outlined in the Vienna agreement that it's going to take a very long time for Iran to fulfil all the conditions necessary for all sanctions to be lifted. In some instances this could take as long as 25 years. So predictions that Iran will imminently have a huge windfall of cash to start spending on military hardware, look seriously off the mark. And even after bank accounts are unfrozen and money starts to flow again, the Vienna deal stipulates Iran will continue to be subject to

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an arms embargo for five to eight years. It's also important to underline that the sanctions due to be lifted post-Vienna are just the ones related to Iran's nuclear activities.There are still many other US and international restrictions in place, as there have been for the past three decades since the Islamic Revolution. Iran and the West still have a very long way to go to settle all their disputes and bring a complete end to Iran's diplomatic isolation.Predictions from some Arab commentators of a new US-Iranian alliance in the Middle East are also hugely wide of the mark. President Obama has made it clear he does not expect a resumption of diplomatic ties with Iran any time soon. A possible shift of power to the Republicans in next year's US elections could potentially call the future of the Vienna deal into question.And with the level of opposition also being raised by key allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, there's no guarantee, even with another Democrat in the White House, that all phases of the nuclear deal will be implemented without future hitches.Hardline opposition In Iran itself there's also strong opposition to the deal from hardliners.So far, Ayatollah Khamenei seems supportive, but future developments in a region as volatile as the Middle East, combined with rising tensions between rival factions inside Iran, could well change his mind. The idea of rebuilding the Persian Empire might sound like an exaggeration, but it is not solely the product of the wilder imaginations of some Arab politicians.There are influential political and military figures in Iran who still firmly believe what they chanted during the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s: "The road to Qods (Jerusalem) passes through Kerbala."To them, bringing the whole Islamic world under the leadership of Shia Iran and paving the way for the 12th Imam to return to rule the world after more than a thousand years, is not just a dream.President Hassan Rouhani's pragmatist policy has little in common with the apocalyptic ideology of the hardliners. For him and his team the Vienna agreement has been a great victory.He is now in a much stronger position to start the long task of rebuilding the Iranian economy after a decade of punishing sanctions. He's made it clear that part of this process will involve settling disputes with Arab states and normalising ties with other influential countries.

TEHRAN, Aug. 14 (MNA) – In two interviews, Iran’s Deputy FM Amir-Abdollahian commented on Turkey’s no-fly zone plan and the United States’ plan for Iraq."We consider the establishment of a no-fly zone inside Syria a violation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of this country," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Thursday. The Iranian official made the remarks while answering the questions of IRNA in regard to Turkey. Amir-Abdollahian also underlined that maintaining Turkey's security is Iran's serious concern but he also stressed that Syria’s and neighbor’s security would be guaranteed when number of players in the scene take hands off from instrumental use of terrorism and a serious intention to fight against extremism exists.In another interview, the Iranian official reacted to what the US Army Chief of Staff General Raymond Odierno, who once served as the top US commander in Iraq, said on Wednesday that partitioning Iraq “is something that could happen” and "might be the only solution.”“The US interventions and wrong policies in the region and Iraq are the culprits in the emergence of serious problems in this country,” said Amir-Abdollahian on Friday, stressing that Iraq’s disintegration would further escalate the crisis in the Arab country. Describing the American general’s remarks as 'provocative' and against peace in the Arab neighbor, Amir-Abdollahian once again reaffirmed the Islamic Republic’s support for “Iraq’s national unity and territorial integrity.”The remarks came as a controversial US Congress bill, the draft of which was released in April, proposes division of Iraq into three states and allows the Kurdish forces and the Sunni tribesmen to be armed directly without Baghdad’s approval. The bill stipulates that 25 to 60 percent of the USD 715-million aid money allegedly allocated to Iraq in its war against ISIL will be directly supplied to Sunni and Kurdish forces.


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Iraqi politicians, including members of the parliament, as well as religious leaders have voiced their opposition to the bill.

As Iran rises in the Mideast, Kurds benefit in Iraq and Syria. Aug 14 While the Iran nuclear deal has thrown the entire Arab world into political disarray, and while Turkey is increasingly at war with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the “moderate” Kurds are looking at what is apparently the best chance they have had in decades to get a Kurdish state.The Arabs, Iran, Turkey, the al-Assad Syrian regime, the Kurds, and the U.S. are all involved in the war in Syria and Iraq in one way or another, all with completely different objectives. But they all have one thing in common: They are all fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) — more precisely, they are all fighting ISIS and using the fight against ISIS as a cover for their own objectives. The Kurds are one of America’s key allies in Iraq and Syria in the fight against ISIS, and have benefited from airstrikes from the US-led coalition. With the help from these airstrikes, the Kurds have successfully taken control of substantial territory in northern Syria and Iraq, along Turkey’s border. Furthermore, the Kurds are getting substantial help from Iran. Reports are that Iran convinced the regime of Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad to grant the autonomy and de facto local independence to the Kurds in Western Syria, and Iran convinced the Shia-led government in Iraq to give the a higher level of autonomy to the Kurds in Iraq.As we wrote in “26-Jul-15 World View — Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up ‘safe zone'”, the Kurds in northern Syria are separated into two large enclaves, one in the east up the border with Iraq, and one in the west. If the Kurds can unite those two regions, then it can declare the entire region a Kurdish state, possibly including parts of Iraq, southeastern Turkey, and even northwestern Iran.Even without a Kurdish state, Turkey would face on its southern border a stable and sustainable alliance headed by Iran, with the al-Assad government in Syria, Hezbollah, the Shia-controlled government, and Kurdish forces. This would give Iran control of a strip of land from Iran to the Mediterranean, isolating Turkey from the rest of the Mideast, and almost encircling Turkey with Iran’s allies. With or without a Kurdish state, this would be intolerable to Turkey. That is why Turkey needs its 110-km wide “safe zone” in northern Syria, separating the two Kurdish enclaves. The announced purpose of the “safe zone” was to provide a refuge to Syrians from ISIS, but that’s not as important an objective as providing a refuge to Turkey from Iran and the Kurds. Geopolitical Monitor and Al Arabiya

IRAN TIGHTENS ITS GRIP ON IRAQ W/NEW "REFORMS"Iran is being centralized as a Shiite tyranny. on Obama's watch. August 15, 2015 Obama's deal with Iran has bigger and broader implications for the region. Even before the deal was reached, the US was acting as the air force for terrorist Shiite militias in Iraq. Iran is turning Iraq into a proxy state just like Syria.These latest "reforms" help kill a united Iraq while maintaining a permanent Sunni insurgency. Which means the odds of Iraq ever being stable, even if ISIS is beaten, continue to drop. That's going to be blamed on Bush, when this is really on Obama. Obama belatedly forced out Maliki, but failed to get any fundamental changes in the actual system. So now it's being Shiiteized.The passage of the measures was never really in doubt. They were backed by the country’s leading Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who holds great sway over the country’s Shiite majority...The elimination of sectarian and party quotas in filling high-level posts may also alienate Sunnis if, in practice, the new policies lead to further dominance by Shiites...“I think that the decision of Abadi will lead to the anger of the Sunni community, because the Sunnis see the positions of deputy prime minister and vice president as their entitlement,” said Hadi Jalo Marie, who participated in the protests and is the head of the Journalistic Freedoms Observatory, a


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Baghdad advocacy group. “So I think that Sunnis will see that Abadi’s decision represents a continuation of the marginalization of the Sunni sect.”...Even so, Mr. Mardini said, Sunni leaders appear to be betting that the measures will make Mr. Abadi better able to deliver on promises to the Sunni community, including overhauling the criminal justice system, releasing Sunni detainees and arming Sunni tribes to fight the Islamic State, a step the United States sees as necessary to defeat the militants.Sistani wouldn't be backing any changes that empower Sunnis.Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran. The Shiite militias operate under his fatwa. He's not simply a proxy for Iran, but the end result is the same. Shiite dominance translates into Iranian dominance.Iran and ISIS are acting as stalking horses for each other, radicalizing populations and locking in a conflict. The bigger the emergency, the more Shiites in the region come to depend on Iran and accept Iranian "aid" until they become tools of Iran. Just ask the Alawites of Syria.Iran is being centralized as a Shiite tyranny. on Obama's watch.

Iran’s Top Officer Warns against Plots to Undermine Iraqi GovernmentAugust 09, 2015 - 17:17TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi on Sunday urged Iraqi people to beware of “mischievous acts” targeting the Arab country’s central government. Assessments show that Iraq’s central government has had a very good performance, General Firouzabadi said, highlighting the “serious” achievements of Haider al-Abadi’s administration in securing the country’s sovereignty and independence against enemies.The Iranian commander, however, warned against certain “mischievous acts” in Iraq, and urged the Iraqi people to be vigilant. “The decent people of Iraq including Sunnis and Shiites should be careful," he underlined, adding that the emergence of some deficiencies in the country is fabricated and that calls for street demonstrations by particular groups, often non-Muslims, are part of the ill-intentioned moves. He also referred to the explosion of Iran-Iraq power transmission lines and other acts of sabotage, saying that such measures are all aimed at portraying the Iraqi central government as incompetent. Every successful revolution has faced such troubles, he stressed, adding, “The revolutionary nation of Iraq should exercise self-restraint and assist the central government on its way to gain more achievements and overcome the enemies.”Since June 10, 2014, Iraq has witnessed a fresh wave of violence after militants from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist group took control of large swathes of the war-stricken country.

Iran must lead 'resistance axis' to fight US influence in Mideast, Khamanei aide says. 15 Aug, Iran and its allies must do all in their power to curb American influence in the Middle East, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said. According to official Iranian media, Ali Akbar Velayati said that the "resistance axis" of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories is "not only to fight against the dominance of foreigners in their countries" but also to roll back US hegemony. Velayati said that the Western powers are conspiring to divide Syria after "failing in its military aggression against Afghanistan and Iraq." “Syria is the golden ring of resistance against the Zionists,” he said. Despite the nuclear deal recently struck with the major powers, Iranian officials have continued to make statements that appear to give the impression that the regime is still intent on assuming a hostile posture toward the West.Just days after the agreement was struck, Khamenei tweeted a warning against any military action against Iran by what he called the "aggressive and criminal US."Appearing on Ayatollah Khamenei's official Twitter account, the social media post features a quote from the Islamic Republic's premier cleric reading "we welcome no war, nor do we initiate any war, but if any war happens he who will emerge the loser will be the aggressive and criminal US."Below the threat, a silhouette resembling US President Barack Obama can be seen holding a gun


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against his own head, as if to suggest that any sort of strike against Tehran would be a suicidal move for the American leader. Last week, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters in Beirut that the Islamic Republic's major challenge in the region is in "confronting...the Zionist and extremist regime."Zarif arrived on an official visit to the Lebanese capital on Tuesday to discuss bilateral and regional issues, including a "new plan" on how to resolve the crisis in neighboring Syria, according to an Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman. Tehran's top diplomat also met with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

Iran Offered Iraq 'Open Check' in ISIS Fight, Official SaysASPEN, Colorado — Jul 23, 2015, By LEE FERRAN

Iraqi Army armored vehicles prepare to attack Islamic State extremists in Tikrit, north of Baghdad, Iraq, March 12, 2015.AP PhotoIn stark contrast to the U.S. government's measured approach to countering ISIS in Iraq through the deployment of military advisors and stand-off airstrikes, Iran flatly offered Iraq an "open check" to battle the Islamic extremists, the Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. said today."In relation to Iran, it also sees the threat of ISIS is a threat to its national security," Iraqi Ambassador Lukman Faily told the audience at the Aspen Security Forum today, noting that at one point ISIS forces were within 25 miles of the Iranian border to Iraq's east. "And their approach to it, more or less,

was to have what I might call an open check with Iraq. 'What do you need?' And they offered us literally anything we wanted, troops and everything else, air force usage and everything else."Faily indicated that Iraq has not used everything the Iranians have offered, since the Iraqi government is cognizant of the support it needs from other anti-ISIS elements, including U.S. support in the "Iraqi-driven project."When New York Times correspondent Eric

Schmitt, who was moderating the Aspen panel, pointed out that such an arrangement with Iran has given U.S. officials in Washington pause, Faily said, "That's a Washington problem, not an Iraqi problem."Longtime opponents, the U.S. and Iran have found themselves curiously on the same side in the battle against ISIS in Iraq -- but U.S. officials insist the U.S. does not coordinate its activities with Iran.Iran has reportedly sent its own troops into Iraq -- including special forces soldiers and top military commanders. Faily said Iran has less than 200 military advisors on the ground -- far less than the U.S. -- but those that are there fight on the front lines with Iraqi soldiers. As far back as December 2014, Iranian jets reportedly bombed ISIS targets in Iraq. At the time then-Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby told reporters there was "no indication that the reports are not true," but repeated that the U.S. was not coordinating military activities with Iran.Iran is also suspected of backing and directing Shia militias, some of which became the focus of an ABC News investigation following allegations that the Shia anti-ISIS militias were committing atrocities as bad as the terror group they were fighting.In March, Secretary of State John Kerry said the U.S. is "not blind" to Iran's military influence in Iraq."With respect to Iraq, we absolutely have known of Iran’s engagement in the northeastern parts of Iraq and, indeed, we’ve had conversations with Prime Minister [Haider] al-Abadi about it. He doesn’t hide it, and we’re not blind to it," Kerry said. "And while we are not coordinating with Iran -- we do not have conversations with Iran about this -- we work through the Iraqi Government. We do so with the


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knowledge that they are also opposed to Daesh [ISIS] and are working for Daesh’s defeat."Faily said today that basically, the Iraqi government will take help against ISIS wherever they can get it. "We have a common threat with other countries, including Iran, in the sense of ISIS, and as much as we can get help to that effect, we have no psychological obstacle to the support of any country in our fight, inlucding Iran," he said.

A senior Iranian official has called for the unity of the Iraqi nation and political involvement of all Iraqi groups in the fight against terrorism in the Arab country.Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Iranian deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, said on Wednesday that the Iraqi people should unite in defense of the interests of their country and its territorial integrity amid the current wave of terrorism in the region.He made the remarks in a meeting with Ali Bapir, the leader of the Kurdistan Islamic Group.During the meeting, Amir-Abdollahian urged political participation of all Iraqi tribes and ethnic groups according to the country’s constitution to defend the interests of Iraq.The Iranian official said the scourge of extremism had been imported into the Muslim countries, adding that regional cooperation as well as avoiding plots by the United States and Israel will help put an end to the regional crises.Iran, with a correct understanding of the essence of the ISIL Takfiri terrorist group and the goals of its supporters, was the first country which came to the support of the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan region in the fight against the terrorists, Amir-Abdollahian stated.Bapir, for his part, also said unity among Iraqi tribes and ethnic groups will contribute to the success of the battle against ISIL militants.The leader of the Kurdistan Islamic Group also highlighted the effective role of Iran in the Muslim world, calling for more efforts by Iran to strengthen unity and cooperation between Muslim nations.Separately, Bapir met with Iranian Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani, where the two sides discussed the developments in Iraq and ways to defend the country against ISIL Takfiris.Larijani said during the meeting that Iran has always stood by the Iraqi people and supports Iraq’s territorial integrity, national sovereignty and unity.Bapir, in turn, appreciated the support of the Iranian nation for the Iraqi people and people in Iraq’s Kurdistan region.ISIL currently controls parts of Iraq and Syria. The terrorists have committed crimes against all communities, including Shias, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, Izadi Kurds and others in the two countries.

Iran Blasts US General’s “Provocative” Remarks on IraqAugust 15, 2015 - 10:39TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Iranian deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs dismissed recent remarks by a US General about the disintegration of Iraq, saying such interventionist claims are against the path of peace in the Arab country. The US Army’s outgoing Chief of Staff General Ray Odierno claimed Wednesday that reconciliation between Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq is becoming harder and that partitioning the country "might be the only solution."In reaction, Hossein Amir Abdollahian said on Friday that “such remarks are provocative and in contradiction to the path of peace and security in Iraq and the region.”"These (claims) are even against the stances held by his own country’s politicians,” he added, reiterating that the US interference and wrong policies in the region and Iraq have been the main cause behind serious problems in the Arab state.Amir Abdollahian further noted that Baghdad’s political system is clearly defined by its constitution, adding that the disintegration would just exacerbate the ongoing crisis and problems in Iraq.“If there is a serious international resolve to fight terrorism, the wise people and political and religious leaders of Iraq are well capable of resolving the problems of their country,” he stressed,


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reaffirming Tehran’s support for the national unity and sovereignty of Iraq.Since June 10, 2014, Iraq has witnessed a fresh wave of violence after militants from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) terrorist group took control of large swathes of the war-stricken country.The US said on September 5, 2014 that it had created a "core coalition" to battle the ISIL militants in Iraq, calling for broad support from allies and partners around the world.However, ISIL militants, who are believed to be supported by the West and some regional Arab countries, made swift advances in much of northern and western Iraq.This is while a combination of concentrated attacks by the Iraqi military and the volunteer forces, who rushed to take arms after top Iraqi cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a fatwa calling for fight against the militants, have blunted the edge of the ISIL offensive.

August 03, 2015 - TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Agriculture ministers of Iran and Iraq inked an agreement on Monday to boost bilateral cooperation in different agricultural sectors.Iran's Agriculture Minister Mahmoud Hojjati and his Iraqi counterpart Falah Hassan al-Zaidan signed the agreement in a meeting in Tehran.Zaidan arrived in Tehran on Sunday for talks with Iranian officials on development of cooperation in the agriculture and power sectors. The 12-clause agreement would promote cooperation between Tehran and Baghdad in agriculture, exchange of experience and technical expertise in agricultural research, fishery, modern irrigation systems and other fields. The two ministers also agreed on the formation of a joint working committee for boosting agricultural cooperation. In a February meeting in Baghdad, Hojjati and Zeidan had endorsed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to pave the ground for the further expansion of cooperation between the two countries in livestock and veterinary fields. The two neighboring countries have enjoyed growing ties ever since the overthrow of the former Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, in 2003.

Jul 25, Saudi Arabia-led coalition forces seized the strategic southern port of Aden in Yemen from Shiite Houthi rebels, unexpectedly turning the tide of Yemen’s war in favor of Saudi Arabia, Reuters reports. “The loss of the strategic southern port of Aden in the space of just a few days is a spectacular reversal for the Houthis, a once-obscure rural group that won national importance last year before gaining the upper hand in a four-month-old civil war,” notes the report.“At stake in what happens next is the stability of a country that is a cockpit of rivalry between regional powers Saudi Arabia and Iran, sits on leading international shipping routes and provides a haven for al Qaeda’s boldest international wing,” it adds.Saudi Arabia and some U.S. officials have accused Iran of providing military aid to the Houthis. The Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community have acknowledged that Iran maintains a relationship with Shiite Houthi rebels. Nevertheless, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter expressed doubts earlier this week as to whether the Iranian influence over the Houthis is real, noting that it is a “complicated situation.” “If America and Iran are now on good terms … this is a show of things to come – We are ready to defend our own turf,” Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), told Reuters, referring to an Iranian nuclear deal that could pave the way rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.“In this zero-sum game, the balance of power in the region has swung to the Gulf states’ advantage, after this net loss for Iran in Yemen,” he added, alluding to the Saudi-led coalition’s victory over the Houthis in Aden. Secretary of State John Kerry, in an interview with PBS NewsHour in April, said the United States was aware that Iran had been providing military supplies to the Houthis in Yemen.“It’s just not a fact. They have been,” he said. “We’re well aware of the support that Iran has been giving to Yemen,” he explained. “And Iran needs to recognize that the United States is not going to stand by while the region is destabilized, or while people engage, you know, in overt warfare across

the lines, international boundaries and other countries.” Despite the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence community’s recognition that Iran has a relationship with the Houthis, Secretary of Defense Carter


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questioned whether the “Iranian influence with the Houthis is real.” He added: We have taken steps to check Iranian for example resupply of the Houthis, and emphasized the need for a political settlement there, so I think that we and the Saudis share a concern about malign influence by Iran, but we also both share an assessment that it’s a complicated situation.

15 Aug, Iran is building a natural gas combined cycle power plant in Iraq’s Basra at a cost of $2.5 billion in the Persian country’s biggest engineering services deal yet. The project, being carried out by Iran’s MAPNA Group, aims to add 3,000 megawatts of electric power to Iraq’s national grid which is saddled with acute shortfalls at its current 8,500-megawatt capacity.The deal, signed with the Iraqi-Jordanian Shamara Group, follows MAPNA’s successful implementation of Najaf and Baghdad power plants which will imminently receive the Iranian gas through a pipeline to begin operation.MAPNA Managing Director Abbas Aliabadi said Monday his company had started execution of the Rumaila power plant near Basra after 1.5 years of negotiations with the Iraqi side. The facility will be completed in four years, with the first unit expected to join the national grid in early 2017. The deal includes the Iraqi government’s guaranteed purchase of the electricity produced at the power plant for 15-17 years, Shamara CEO Ali Shamara said, adding his country will finance the entire project.MAPNA will supply equipment, including gas and steam turbines and boilers besides engineering and supervising the project. According to Shamara, security issues have been taken into account in deciding to build the facility in Rumaila in the relatively stable southern Basra which is only 60 km from the Iranian city of Ahvaz. “MAPNA’s reliability and its facile accessibility is one of the reasons which convinced us to cede the project to this company since it can immediately report to the site in any eventuality,” Shamara added.The project is set to boost overall power generation capacity by 20% in Iraq which plans to generate 20,000 megawatts by 2016. Iran is playing a central role in the development plan through building a separate pipeline which will carry its gas to the power plants in Najaf as well as Sadr City in Baghdad and al-Mansuriya south of the Iraqi capital. On Saturday, Managing Director of the Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company Alireza Gharibi said the last section of the pipeline to Baghdad is being tested for the start of the gas flow.Last month, the Fars news agency, citing informed energy industry sources, said the plan for exports to Iraq had been pushed back again over concerns about the security of the pipeline.Iran is expected to initially deliver 4 million cubic meters of gas per day (mcm/d) before raising it to 35 mcm/d later to feed the three electricity generation plants in Iraq.Exports were planned to start in the Iranian month of Ordibehesht which ended on May 21. The source said he hoped the transfer of gas would begin in Shahrivar in the next two months or so.

Iran-Iraq gas pipeline to be complete in 20 days: officialTehran Times Economic Desk Aug 3 TEHRAN- The pipeline for exporting Iran’s gas to Iraq will be ready by the end of the fifth Iranian calendar month of


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Mordad (August 22), according to an official with Iran’s Oil Ministry. Alireza Gharibi, the managing director of Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company, said upon the completion of the pipeline Iran will initially export 5 million cubic meters (mcm) of gas per day to Iraq, which can reach 25 mcm per day, the Shana News Agency reported on Sunday. The two countries signed an agreement over the exports of natural gas from South Pars energy hub to Iraq back in 2013. Based on the agreement, 25 mcm of gas will be delivered to Sadr, Baghdad and al-Mansouryah power plants through a 270-kilometer pipeline. The project is estimated to earn Iran $3.7 billion a year in revenues, according to Press TV. Iran, which sits on the world’s largest gas reserves, intends to enhance gas production by increasing foreign and domestic investment, especially in its South Pars gas field. South Pars gas field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometers, 3,700 square kilometers of which are in Iran’s territorial waters in the Persian Gulf. The remaining 6,000 square kilometers are situated in Qatar’s territorial waters. The field is estimated to contain a significant amount of natural gas, accounting for about eight percent of the world’s reserves, and approximately 18 billion barrels of condensate.

There's a bigger threat to oil prices than Iran. Iraq. Jul 20 Last week, Iran struck a nuclear deal with several world powers that, among other things, will end an oil embargo and allow the country to increase production for export. Analysts have begun to worry that the extra supply — estimated by Goldman Sachs at up to 400,000 barrels a day — could worsen the already flooded market.In a note to clients on Friday, however, JPMorgan analysts said Iraq was a bigger, more immediate concern to the market. The firm wrote (emphasis added): Iran's agreement with the P5+1 solidifies the case of increased production in Q1. However, it is arguably additional supplies from Iraq that are pressuring world oil prices more than Iran at this juncture. Iraqi production has risen consistently over recent quarters, but surged ahead in 2Q2015 prompting us to conclude that Iraq will likely overtake Saudi Arabia as the biggest contributor to OPEC growth this year.The full potential of Iranian oil exports is not expected within the next year, because the production infrastructure still needs to be brought back to life. And so Iraq's surging production is a more immediate threat to oil prices, which last week fell for a third straight week. On Monday morning, West Texas Intermediate crude futures were slightly lower,


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and fell to about $51 a barrel. Writing to clients on Friday, Deutsche Bank's Michael Hsueh noted that Iraqi output surged to a record high of 4.1 million barrels a day in June. "In comparison to other OPEC members, this means that Iraqi excess production at 920 kb/d above its inferred Iran Agreement quotas is second only to Saudi Arabia at 1,670 kb/d above quota," Hsueh wrote. Here's JPMorgan's forecast of Iraqi oil production:

JP Morgan

And via Deutsche Bank, this chart compares how much OPEC members have pumped above their inferred quotas, with Iraq's output surging in June, second only to Saudi Arabia's:


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Deutsche Bank


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Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Iran-11