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people were killed in tMadrid train bombing

191

56

2,997

May 2,2012

Osama bin Laden

is killed

5

people were kn the 9/11 attn t e US n 2

9

Bin Ladens terrordream is living on

METRO in focus

It is almost two years since the death of Osama bin Laden but what is thecurrent state of the terror group he formed? GRAEME GREEN takes acloser look at al-Qaedas new plan of attack.T

HE death o Osama binLaden was, or some, aull stop. Americasrevenge or the 9/11attacks and the end o the

al-Qaeda story.But since bin Laden was assassi-

nated in May 2011, the name oal-Qaeda the group bin Ladenounded has rarely been out o thenews throughout the world.

Al-Qaeda has recently been con-

nected to bomb attacks in Iraq, kill-ings and conficts in Mali, clashesin Yemen and attacks and kidnap-pings in Aghanistan.

So what state is al-Qaeda current-ly in? How has the organisationchanged since the so-called war onterror o the Bush and Blair era?And does it still pose a signicant

threat? Al-Qaeda has declined insize but not in infuence, saidRohan Gunaratna, head o theInternational Centre or PoliticalViolence and Terrorism Research.

Although its numerical strengthhas depleted, its ability to shape

and infuence like-minded groupsrom Arica to the Middle East andAsia has increased.

Today, in place o one al-Qaedaled by Osama bin Laden, there are30 groups embracing al-Qaeda ide-ology and methodology. And thestructure o the terrorist group haschanged, according to Raaello

Pantucci, senior research ellow atthe Royal United Services Institute.

Al-Qaeda is in a complex state.Its ragmented into a series ogrouplets that all demonstrate somelevel o connectivity.

However, they tend to be operat-

ing to primarily localised agendas.This is in contrast to the period

around 9/11 when it was a muchmore coherent and structured entitywith a core leadership and lots ounits scattered around the worldconducting dierent tasks.

What is let o al-Qaeda core isbased primarily in Pakistans law-

less provinces, with likely someoverspill into Aghanistan andpossibly Iran.

Other groups with varyingdegrees o links to al-Qae-das core can be ound inthe Sahel region Mali, orthe most part, parts o Libyatoo and as ar down as Ni-geria.

Over in Somalia, al-Sha-baab

a group that pledged allegiance toal-Qaeda core over a year ago isstill operational. Across the waterin Yemen, al-Qaeda in the ArabianPeninsula continues to pose athreat. The most active and bloodygroup is to be ound in Iraq, wherethe Islamic State o Iraq (al-Qaedain Iraq) is carrying out regular ter-

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are among the countrieswhere al-Qaeda is most

active today

IRAQ

YEMENYEMEN

SOMALIA

are awher

YEM

SOMALIA

In March 2013 in Iraq:

including:

members of the Iraqisecurity forces were killed

more memberswere injured

450

229

were injured

1,100

227

300

Ayman al-Zawahiriwas named as al-Qaedas new

leader after the death of Osamabin Laden. Some believe Zawahiri was

the brains behind the 9/11 attacks.Zawahiri has a $25m (16million) bounty

on his head from the FBI

translates as thebase or thefoundation

al-Qaeda

Al-Qaedas strength has diminished from3,000 to 200 members since 9/11

peoplewere killedin terrorattacks

civilians

More than

Graphic bySophie Harwin @sophiemetrTweet your views on In Focus to @McGuinnessRoss

rorist attacks and has links across theborder in Syria.

The ragmentation and dispersal iscaused, in part, by western mili-

tary action in al-Qaedasoriginal base re-

gions, said DrRashmi Singh,

a lecturer int e r r o r i s mstudies atthe Uni-versity oSt An-d r e w s . T h i sragmen-tation hascontinuedand evenaccelerat-ed ater binLadens tar-

geted assas-

sination, she added. However, wemust remember that the core o binLadens vision or al-Qaeda as amovement was the spread o the al-Qaeda ideology o global jihad againstboth near and ar enemies. In this, boththe ragmentation and his own deathhave served to accelerate the spread othis ideology.

THE continuing terror attackssuggest that while al-Qaedamay not be capable o spec-tacular attacks such as 9/11and Madrid in the west, they

continue to pose a credible threat tosecurity across the globe, accordingto Dr Singh.

Gregory Johnsen is a Yemen analystand author o The Last Reuge. Yem-en is a deeply divided country at themoment and al-Qaeda is attemptingto take advantage o that by buildingup its inrastructure, attempting to re-cruit more fghters and planning u-

ture attacks, he said.Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Pe-ninsula, the group based inYemen, absolutely poses athreat to the west. Thisgroup has shown that ithas both the capacity andthe determination to carryout strikes against the USand UK rom its hideoutsin Yemen. There are wor-rying signs in Arican

countries, too, including says James Fergusson, journauthor o The Worlds Mostous Place.

Gen Carter Ham o thCommand has warned moonce that al-Qaeda ranchisethe continent could link up insharing arms and training, h

Whether this will really hstill moot but the threat o anda-inspired sub-Saharan insrom Somalia in the east tothe west, must be taken serio

Al-Qaeda has become exploiting the worlds ungspaces, o which there are mamodern world.

When governments ail thlations in terms o jobs, security, the chance o a dece those populations are apt toalternatives, which, in manycountries, may well mean Isl

US and British orces arecused o exacerbating the with the invasion o Iraq amilitary actions.

There was neglect on the pwest to counter the ideoal-Qaeda and their associatedsaid Pro Gunaratna.

In response to the overwlethal operational strategy adthe west, the threat o terroits precursor, ideological exhas grown even greater.

Thursday, April 11, 2013 MET