TimberMart-South 1

Alabama Timber Price TrendsAlabama Forest Owners’ Association

January 23, 2008

Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 2

TimberMart-SouthCenter for Forest Business

D.B. Warnell School The University of Georgia

Thomas G. Harris, Jr. and Sara Baldwin

TimberMart-South 3

Alabama Timber TrendsOrder of Discussion

• Objectives• Sawtimber Markets, lumber and

housing trends• Pulpwood Markets• State-wide vs. Unique Regions• TimberMart-South

TimberMart-South 4

Alabama Average Stumpage Prices4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4Q 7

7

4Q 7

9

4Q 8

1

4Q 8

3

4Q 8

5

4Q 8

7

4Q 8

9

4Q 9

1

4Q 9

3

4Q 9

5

4Q 9

7

4Q 9

9

4Q 0

1

4Q 0

3

4Q 0

5

4Q 0

7

$/to

n

Pine Sawtimber

Pine Chip-n-Saw

Pine Pulpwood

Hardwood Sawtimber

Hardwood Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 5

Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change

Timber Mart-South

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 year 5 year 10 year

Pine Sawtimber

Pine Chip-n-Saw

Pine Pulpwood

Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood

TimberMart-South 6

North Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change

TMS Excel program

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 year 5 year 10 year

Pine Sawtimber

Pine Chip-n-Saw

Pine Pulpwood

Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood

TimberMart-South 7

South Alabama Stumpage Pricesthrough 4th Q 2007 Compound Annual Rate of Change

TMS Excel program

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

1 year 5 year 10 year

Pine Sawtimber

Pine Chip-n-Saw

Pine Pulpwood

Mixed HardwoodSawtimberHardwood Pulpwood

TimberMart-South 8

Alabama Pine Average Stumpage Prices

4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4Q 7

7

4Q 7

9

4Q 8

1

4Q 8

3

4Q 8

5

4Q 8

7

4Q 8

9

4Q 9

1

4Q 9

3

4Q 9

5

4Q 9

7

4Q 9

9

4Q 0

1

4Q 0

3

4Q 0

5

4Q 0

7

$/to

n

Pine Sawtimber

Pine Chip-n-Saw

Pine Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 9

Alabama Hardwood Average Stumpage Prices

4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

4Q 7

7

4Q 7

9

4Q 8

1

4Q 8

3

4Q 8

5

4Q 8

7

4Q 8

9

4Q 9

1

4Q 9

3

4Q 9

5

4Q 9

7

4Q 9

9

4Q 0

1

4Q 0

3

4Q 0

5

4Q 0

7

$/to

n

Hardwood Sawtimber

Hardwood Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 10

Alabama Pulpwood Average Stumpage Prices

4th Quarter 1977 – 4th Quarter 2007

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

4Q 7

7

4Q 7

9

4Q 8

1

4Q 8

3

4Q 8

5

4Q 8

7

4Q 8

9

4Q 9

1

4Q 9

3

4Q 9

5

4Q 9

7

4Q 9

9

4Q 0

1

4Q 0

3

4Q 0

5

4Q 0

7

$/to

n

Pine Pulpwood

Hardwood Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 11

Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast

Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Pine Sawtimber

SE Pine Sawtimber

TimberMart-South 12

Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast

Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Pine CNS

SE Pine CNS

TimberMart-South 13

Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs. Southeast

Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Pine Pulpwood

SE Pine Pulpwood

TimberMart-South 14

Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber

TimberMart-South 15

Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Hardwood Pulpwood

SE Hardwood Pulpwood

TimberMart-South 16

North Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 1 PineSawtimberSE Pine Sawtimber

Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 17

North Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th 2007

$0$4$8

$12$16$20

$24$28$32$36$40$44

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 1 Pine CNS

SE Pine CNS

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 18

North Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q 04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 1 PinePulpwoodSE Pine Pulpwood

Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 19

North Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage

Prices vs. Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

$32

$36

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 1 HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 20

North Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage

Prices vs. Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$4

$8

$12

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 1 HardwoodPulpwoodSE Hardwood Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 21

South Alabama Average Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 2 PineSawtimberSE Pine Sawtimber

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 22

South Alabama Average Pine Chip N Saw Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

Al Reg 2 Pine CNS

SE Pine CNS

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 23

South Alabama Average Pine Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 2 PinePulpwoodSE Pine Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 24

South Alabama Average Hardwood Sawtimber Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 2 HardwoodSawtimberSE Hardwood Sawtimber

Source: Timber Mart-South

TimberMart-South 25

South Alabama Average Hardwood Pulpwood Stumpage Prices vs.

Southeast Average 4th Q 1997 through 4th Q 2007

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q 05 4Q 06 4Q 07

$/T

on

AL Reg 2 HardwoodPulpwoodSE Hardwood Pulpwood

Source: Timber Mart-South

26

Southern Timber Trends

FinisQuestions