Alan F. HamletEdward L. MilesAmy K. Snover

JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group

and Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Washington

October, 2003

Designing a Regional Integrated Climate Research Program for the Pacific

Northwest: Evolving Research Strategies in the University of Washington Climate

Impacts Group

PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions)

Principals:

Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems)Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources)Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics)Philip W. Mote (education and outreach)Richard Palmer (water resources management)David L. Peterson (forests)Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis)

People in the Climate Impacts Group

The Climate Impacts Group: The Big Picture

Climate Variability• past variations and their impacts• ability of institutions to respond to

extremesClimate Change• regional consequences of global

warming• adaptation/vulnerability

Water Resources

Salmon +

Forests

Coasts

Human Dimensions

[Agriculture]

[Human Health]

SEC

TO

RS

SC

OPE o

f W

OR

K

Climate Impact ScienceThe study of how climate, natural resources, and

human socio-economic systems affect each other

naturalresources

socio-economicsystems

climate

CLIMATE

IMPACTS

SCIENCE

• Understand regional climate variability • Analyze impacts of climate variations on natural and

human systems• Investigate institutional responses to climatic

stresses• Assess societal sensitivity, adaptability and

vulnerability to climate variability • Use evidence from retrospective studies as basis

for projecting sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability to climate change

Research Approach

Climate

Hydrology and Water Resources

Forests

Aquatic Ecosystems

Coastal Systems

To Begin: A Simple Vertical Integration Framework with a One-Dimensional Horizontal Linkage to Climate.

Human Dimensions Research

Human Dimensions Research was an integrated component in each sector.

A history of the PDOwarm

coolwarm

A history of ENSO

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation

Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers

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Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998

5 events2 events

Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets

Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships

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Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia River Flow and Drought Since 1750. Submitted to Journal of the American

Water Resources Association.

Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales

red = observed, blue = reconstructed

Temperature Reconstructions from Geoduck Growth Rings 1835-1998

Mean of four series at Protection Island

Are Strom, UW

ColSimReservoir

Model

VICHydrology Model

Construct Analytical Tools

Construct Forecasting Systems

ENSO

PDO

Run Initialized Hydrologic Model

Select Temperature and Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with

Forecast Climate Category

ClimateForecast

EnsembleStreamflowForecast

Forecasting Salmon Returns

Coastal Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperatures

Sea level

Nearshore winds

Oregon coho

salmon survival

SpringFall Winter Summer

Jack returns

Harvest & allocation

decisions (February) FisheryRun-size forecast

(using obs’d conditions)Run-size forecast (using SST forecast)

Plankton surveys

Current Climate 2020s 2040s

Snow Water Equivalent (mm)

VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalentfor Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios)

Project Impacts Forwards in Time

The Northwest Salmon Crisis: The Northwest Salmon Crisis: commercial landings in the Columbia River 1863-1993commercial landings in the Columbia River 1863-1993

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ions

of

poun

ds la

nded

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Examine the Response of Complex Systems

Evaluate Institutional Components and Characteristics

Ability of ManagersAnd Policy Makers

To Respond toClimate Information

And Forecasts

EducationOutreach

WorkshopsHuman Dimensions

Research

Mapping institutional frameworksIdentify playersCharacterize laws, treaties, rules and constraintsDetermine interactionsAnalyze individual institutions

Work with stakeholdersBenefits to CIG:• Use of climate forecasts

by natural resources managers

• Perceived value of climate information

• Decision calendars• Institutional constraints

on adaptability • Areas of vulnerability

Benefits to stakeholders:• Tools for planning - resource forecasts

- regional & resource-specific interpretations of global climate change

• Reliable and responsive source of information about climate outlooks and climate predictability

Strategies• Continual networking to identify partnerships • Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact• Capitalize on climate events• Long-term commitment

Create Functional Linkages Between Academic Research and Management

Agencies

Climate research Formal planning exercises

Hydrologic studies Monitoring

Integrated assessment Infrastructure

Adaptation strategies Management

Academic Research

Resource Management

Planning for Climate Change: Water Resources in the Columbia

basin Water policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios.

www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm

Partners:

Northwest Power Planning Council

Idaho Dept of Water Resources

City of Portland

Oregon Water Dept.

Seattle Public Utility

Planning for climate change: municipal water

supply

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

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Climate impact onhydrology

Climate impact ondemand

Impact of growth ondemand 2040

Impact of climatechange on 2040

demand andhydrology

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Current ClimatePCM3 2040ECHAM4 2040HadCM2 2040HadCM3 2040

FUTURE WATER DEMAND IN PORTLAND (OR):

Regional growth: +40 mgdClimate change: +20 mgd

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS on WEST-SIDE MUNICIPAL SYSTEMS:

Decreased spring streamflow Increased demandsRegional planning & infrastructure investments

Synthesize the Vertical Research Findings

A Few Examples:

•PNW Regional Assessment Report (Mote et al. 1999) (Part of the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change)

•Integrated Assessment of Columbia River Water Resources (Miles et al. 2000)

•Transboundary Issues in the Columbia River Basin (Hamlet, 2003)

•Fisheries Management Applications (Mantua and Francis, 2003)

•Ongoing Workshops on Water Management, Water Policy, Fisheries Management, Forests Resources, Coastal Systems in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change

A Vision for the Future: Increasing Horizontal & Vertical

Integration

Objective: To develop a capability to answer questions from policymakers concerning impacts and policies at the different time/space scales at which climate, natural ecosystems, and human social systems interact.

Climate

Hydrology and Water Resources

Forests

Aquatic Ecosystems

Coastal Systems

One-Dimensional Horizontal Integration

Global ClimateDrivers

Hydrologic Cycle

Forests

Estuaries

Coastal Ocean

Rivers

Water ResourcesManagement

Open Ocean

Salmon

Multi-Dimensional Horizontal Integration

Fisheries Management

Global ClimateDrivers

Hydrologic Cycle

Forests

Estuaries

Coastal Ocean

Rivers

Water ResourcesManagement

Open Ocean

Salmon

Focus on Subsets of the Multi-Dimensional Problem

Fisheries Management

Conclusions:A simple organizational structure based on a one-dimensional “horizontal” linkage between climate research and a group of “vertically integrated” research teams in several traditional academic disciplines has proven to be a useful one for the Climate Impacts Group.

This research strategy has laid the foundation for future work with increasing horizontal integration between sectors.

Research on the capacity of existing institutions identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach.

CIG Partnerships with regional stakeholders has been a very productive avenue in the context of creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications.