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Alfred Wagtendonk / Rui Pedro Julião / Joost Buurman
Contents:
• Introduction• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies• Historical and geographical background
Pilot site-Lisbon• Policy-plans and ‘driving forces’• Planned simulations with Euroscanner
Objectives of the pilot-studies
Provide examples of the spatial analysis possible in EuroScanner.
Translation of theoretical knowledge about rural-urban interactions into spatial transition rules
Assist policy makers in evaluation of different policies and scenarios.
Choice of the pilot-sites
Rotterdam/Randstad Metropoliton region
Paris-region Global city
Lisbon-region Capital city
Problem definition pilot-site Lisbon
What rural-urban land use developments took place in the Lisbon area the last decades, how can these developments be explained and translated to land use rules and what will be the effect of different scenarios and spatial strategies?
Contents:
• Introduction• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies• Historical and geographical background
Pilot site-Lisbon• Policy-plans and ‘driving forces’• Planned simulations with Euroscanner
Lisbon and Tagus Valley Region (LTVR)
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MOITA
MAFRA
TOMAR
OEIRAS
SINTRA
LISBOA
ALMADA
SEIXAL
LOURES
ÓBIDOS
NAZARÉ
GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ
CASCAIS
AMADORA
SETÚBAL
PALMELA
MONTIJO
CORUCHE
CARTAXO
CADAVAL
PENICHE
SARDOAL
BARREIRO
SESIMBRA
ALENQUERAZAMBUJA
SANTARÉMLOURINHÃ
ALCOBAÇA
ALCANENA ABRANTES
CHAMUSCA
ALPIARÇA
ALMEIRIM
ALCOCHETE
BENAVENTE
RIO MAIOR
BOMBARRAL
CONSTÂNCIATORRES NOVAS
TORRES VEDRAS
ENTRONCAMENTO
CALDAS DA RAINHA
ARRUDA DOS VINHOS
VILA NOVA DE OURÉM FERREIRA DO ZÊZERE
SALVATERRA DE MAGOS
VILA FRANCA DE XIRA
SOBRAL DE MONTE AGRAÇO
VILA NOVA DA BARQUINHA
(MONTIJO)
N
0 10 20 KilometersKm
NUT 3Grande LisboaLezíria do TejoMédio TejoOestePenínsula de Setúbal
Municipalities# Head of Municipality
Tagus River
Major Road NetworkIP highwayIC highway
Railway
Most dynamic area of Portugal• 13.5% of the mainland (11,927 sqKm)
• 35.1% of the population (3,292,108 inhabitants)
• population density of 276 inhab/sqKm (105.9 inhab/sqKm for the mainland)
North/South dualismNorth:
• Active industrial area
• Agricultural activity (fresh vegetables, wine and fruit)
South:
• Few industrial activity (except for the Setúbal Peninsula)
• Poor agricultural activity (except for the Ribatejo) together with some forestal production
Agriculture and forest in LTVR
N
Annual CultivationPermenent CultivationMeadowMixed Cultivation
River Tagus
0 10 20 KilometersKm
N
Other forestPinewoodBushesMixed forestScarce vegetation
River Tagus
0 10 20 KilometersKm
Population and Economic activity
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MOITA
MAFRA
TOMAR
OEIRAS
SINTRA
LISBOA
ALMADA
SEIXAL
LOURES
ÓBIDOS
NAZARÉ
GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ
CASCAIS
AMADORA
SETÚBAL
PALMELA
MONTIJO
CORUCHE
CARTAXO
CADAVAL
PENICHE
SARDOAL
BARREIRO
SESIMBRA
ALENQUERAZAMBUJA
SANTARÉM
LOURINHÃ
ALCOBAÇA
ALCANENA ABRANTES
CHAMUSCA
ALPIARÇA
ALMEIRIM
ALCOCHETE
BENAVENTE
RIO MAIOR
BOMBARRAL
CONSTÂNCIATORRES NOVAS
TORRES VEDRAS
ENTRONCAMENTO
CALDAS DA RAINHA
ARRUDA DOS VINHOS
VILA NOVA DE OURÉM FERREIRA DO ZÊZERE
SALVATERRA DE MAGOS
VILA FRANCA DE XIRA
SOBRAL DE MONTE AGRAÇO
VILA NOVA DA BARQUINHA
N
Inhabitants/sqKm0 - 100101 - 500501 - 50005001 - 1000010001 - 45100
0 10 20 KilometersKm
Most dynamic and densely populated area of Portugal
• population density of 276 inhab/sqKm (105.9 inhab/sqKm for the mainland)
• peek between 25 and 45100 inhab/sqKm
• North/South dualism
EC support (1989-1993)
• 35.4% of total support
• 70.7% of industrial support
• Exclusion from Objective 1 regions for the next framework
Data (values in EURO) LTVR Mainland
Industrial Productivity (1994) 19,529,434 11,916,781
Tertiary Productivity (1994) 15,663,252 12,567,213
GDP per capita (1994) 9,408.11 7,487.66
Pilot-site area of Lisbon
The choice of the boundary of the pilot-site area
• interaction urban/rural is more intense in Lisbon Metropolitan Area and surrounding area;
• the localisation in Ota of the proposed new international airport of Lisbon;
• the regional plan for the LMA that is being developed;
• the available satellite images.
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MOITA
MAFRA
TOMAR
OEIRAS
SINTRA
LISBOA
ALMADA
SEIXAL
LOURES
ÓBIDOS
NAZARÉ
GAVIÃOGOLEGÃ
CASCAIS
AMADORA
SETÚBAL
PALMELA
MONTIJO
CORUCHE
CARTAXO
CADAVAL
PENICHE
SARDOAL
BARREIRO
SESIMBRA
ALENQUERAZAMBUJA
SANTARÉMLOURINHÃ
ALCOBAÇA
ALCANENA ABRANTES
CHAMUSCA
ALPIARÇA
ALMEIRIM
ALCOCHETE
BENAVENTE
RIO MAIOR
BOMBARRAL
CONSTÂNCIATORRES NOVAS
TORRES VEDRAS
ENTRONCAMENTO
CALDAS DA RAINHA
ARRUDA DOS VINHOS
VILA NOVA DE OURÉMFERREIRA DO ZÊZERE
SALVATERRA DE MAGOS
VILA FRANCA DE XIRA
SOBRAL DE MONTE AGRAÇO
VILA NOVA DA BARQUINHA
(MONTIJO)
N
0 10 20 KilometersKm
Study Area
1984 1998Satellite images
Urban Development 1970-1990Urban Area - 1970
Urban Area0 5 10 KilometersKm
Urban Area - 1990
Urban Area0 5 10 KilometersKm
Contents:
• Introduction• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies• Historical and geographical background
Pilot site-Lisbon• Policy-plans and ‘driving forces’• Planned simulations with Euroscanner
Urban Development Axis and AccessibilityUrban Area - 1970
Urban Area0 5 10 KilometersKm
Urban Area - 1990
Urban Area0 5 10 KilometersKm
1 - Cascais2 - Sintra3 - Loures4 - Vila Franca Xira5 - Almada-Fogueteiro
0 5 10 KilometersKm
Urban Area
Urban Development Axis
1
23
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Urban Development Axis1 - Cascais
Structured by the railway along the coast with the support of A6 and N6
First area to have a urbanisation plan
Middle and high income residents
Self sustainable region that is attracting outside investment
2 - SintraMajor urbanisation axis of Lisbon
Structured along railway and IC19
Highly dense and compact urbanisation or chaotic urbanisation
500.000 inhabitants (25% of LMA) mostly middle and low income
Industrial and distribution activities
3 - LouresOnly supported by road access
Densely occupied near Lisbon with some chaotic urbanisation
Middle and low income residents
1
2
3
4
5
Urban Development Axis4 - Vila Franca Xira
Structured by the railway, N10 and A1
Heavy industry axis connected with former Lisbon industrial area
Low income residential area mixed with industrial locations between A1 and Tagus
Large clandestine urbanisation above A1
5 - Almada-FogueteiroOnly South side axis
Supported by A2 and N10 after 1966
Oldest part corresponds to the Almada City, Pragal and Cacilhas that were connected to Lisbon by boat
Reinforcement of this axis is expected due to the recently train connection to Lisbon and light railway.
This area has one of largest clandestine occupation of the LMA
Radial development centred in Lisbon with a railway and road radial configuration
Accessibility to Lisbon
Absence of planning
Fragmentation
N
ItemsUrban AreasUrban ExpansionDisperse UrbanisationUrban Green AreasPublic ServicesNew Public ServicesIndustrial AreasIndustrial ExpansionRecreation AreasNew Recreation Areas
Urban and Regional Plans
Total absence of planning
The exception is the Master Plan for Estoril Coast (from the 40’s)
First law of municipal planning is from 1982, but only in the 90’s plans were made
All plans were concluded between 92 and 99
Regarding the proposals it is relevant:
• Urban development on the North
• consolidation of the fifth development axis
• new recreation areas on Benavente
LMA Regional PlanStrategic Schema
Objectives• Promote LMA as Atlantic
capital of Europe
• Re-centre the LMA in Tagus estuary
• Poli-centre the urban development
• Preserve and promote territorial diversity and environmental quality
Territorial Strategy• Create a dual zone core• Create a ring of service
centres • Push industrial locations
out• Create Internationalisation
poles• Recover and integrate
illegal urbanisation• Create gateways to national
and international networks• Preserve and link natural
areas
Contents:
• Introduction• Choice and objectives of pilot-studies• Historical and geographical background
Pilot site-Lisbon• Policy-plans and ‘driving forces’• Planned simulations with Euroscanner
Ways to use Euroscanner:
1. Future exploration. Simulation of (alternative) spatial perspectives based on expert judgement.
2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation of a future ‘reference-image’ or ‘base-scenario’ based on statistical analysis.
3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions in landscape or infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or statistically based transition rules.
4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B (including transition rules) ?
5. Combination of one or more methods.
Netherlands Country of Cities
Netherlands Landscapepark
Netherlands Country of Flows
Netherlands Palette.
Simulation of spatial perspectives, Netherlands 2030
Attractivity residential areas = ([5] * (if pk.landscape > [-0.4]) and pk.landscape < [-0.1]))
then [1] else [0] endif )) + ([5] * pk.water)) + ([2] * manmade.wcl)
Netherlands landscapepark
Base maps (not all of them...)
Gravity-map of transitions in landscape patterns
Valuable man-made landscapes
Gravity-map to water-areas
Expansion residential area compared to 1995
(Parklandscape)
Expansion residential area compared to 1995
(Netherlands country of flows)
Ways to use Euroscanner:
1. Future exploration. Simulation of (alternative) spatial perspectives based on expert judgement.
2. Extrapolation of historic trends. Simulation of a future ‘reference-image’ or ‘base-scenario’ based on statistical analysis.
3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions in landscape or infrastructure. Based on expert judgement or statistically based transition rules.
4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies. What happens if the spatial strategy of zone A is carried out in zone B (including transition rules) ?
5. Combination of one or more methods.
Our approach:
3. (Short-term) simulation of the effects of planned interventions4. Comparison of different national or regional spatial strategies1. Future exploration
3
14
VisualisationEvaluation
& Communication
References[1] CCRLVT, 1999; PROTAML, Ante-Projecto, CCRLVT, Lisboa
[2] Hilferink, M., P. Rietveld, 1998; Land-use Scanner, discussion paper 98-108/3, Tinbergen Institute. YUSE GSO Object Vision / Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
[3] Julião, R. P. (Coord.), 1998; Atlas de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, UNL/FCSH - Dep. de Geografia e Planeamento Regional, Lisboa
[4] Schotten, C.G.J., W.T. Boersma, J. Groen en .J. van de Velde, 1997; Simulatie van de ruimtelijke perspectieven Nederland 2030. RIVM-rapport 711901 004. RIVM, Bilthoven.