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Analyzing the District – Part II. Alisdair McGregor, PE, LEED AP Principal, Arup Fellow, Arup. Analyzing the District – Part 2. Alisdair McGregor. Getting to Climate Positive. Optimal Scales. Optimal Scales. Optimal Scales - ENERGY. Key Variables Resource Intensity Climate Intensity - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Alisdair McGregor, PE, LEED APPrincipal, Arup Fellow, Arup
Analyzing the District – Part II
Analyzing the District – Part 2
Alisdair McGregor
3
Getting to Climate Positive
Optimal Scales
Optimal Scales
Optimal Scales - ENERGY
Key Variables
Resource Intensity
Climate Intensity
Resource Cost
Mixes of Use
Space Availability
Optimal Scales - ENERGYKey Variables
Resource Intensity
Climate Intensity
Resource Cost
Mixes of Use
Space Availability
Optimal Scales - WASTEKey Variables
Resource Intensity
Climate Intensity
Resource Cost
Mixes of Use
Space Availability
Optimal Scales – WATERKey Variables
Resource Intensity
Climate Intensity
Resource Cost
Mixes of Use
Space Availability
District Energy in Mixed Use
4. ECODISTRICT SYSTEMS
SYSTEM COMPONENTSWeighting of Selection Criteria
FACTORS WEIGHT
System Economics (Business Case; Balancing CapEx & OpEx)Weigh the costs and payback of each system 9
Community Finances (Effect on North Bayshore & Mt View Collective Budget)Weigh the business potential of each system to North Bayshore and Mountain View 9
Infrastructure Aesthetics & Open SpaceAssess the benefit or challenge each system may pose to the character or creation of public spaces 5
Reliability (Municipal System Enhancement / Disaster Prep)Ability of each system to provide a backup to municipal infrastructure or to provide critical functionality in the event of disruption
9
Regulatory Compliance (i.e. AB32, CEQUA, C3)The extent to which each system can assist the city in achieving compliance with legislated performance objectives 4
Future-Proofing / Resiliency (Adaptability)The ability of each system be effective & easy to use in potential environmental, regulatory, administrative or other future conditions
7
Social Sustainability (Public Awareness / Access / Equality)The extent to which each system can enhance public opportunities for use, involvement, exploration or enlightenment 6
Environmental Sustainability (Carbon/Resource Efficiency / Habitat & Ecology / Health)Rate the benefits or reductions in damage to the natural world each system provides 9
Leadership (Innovation / Inspiration)The ability for each system to provide an example to other municipalities and or bring positive press or references 5
Choosing by Advantages
CHOOSING BY ADVANTAGESystems Analysis
Conceptual Design
SupplyBaseline
Individual plant for each building
District level systems
DemandBaseline
Gold +
Deep Green
Review Existing Conditions
Sustainability, Risk, Financial
Analyzing District Systems
DISTRICT ENERGY FEASIBILITY TOOL (US Version)
BASE SYSTEMS OUTPUT PROFILES | INPUTS
Program (sf) Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 WeatherExisting offi ce 0 0 0 1,000,000
New Offi ce Admin 254,607 256,768 715,697 0 Weather Dependency (%) Heating Cooling
Electricity
New Offi ce Engineering 710,022 735,698 2,232,864 0 Heating 100% 250% Heating 21.1 Existing offi ce 80% 50% 10%
Wellbeing 0 41,000 12,000 0 Cooling 100% 300% Cooling 23.9 New Offi ce Admin 80% 50% 10%
Housing 150,000 150,000 771,622 0 Electric 100% 400%New Offi ce Engineering
80% 50% 10%
Central services 34,540 30,200 267,818 0 Wellbeing 80% 50% 10%Total 1,149,168 1,213,666 4,000,000 1,000,000 Housing 80% 50% 10%
Central services 80% 50% 10%
Energy Utilization Intensities EUI (kWh/sf/yr)
Heating Cooling Electricity Total Shapes (out of 1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Existing offi ce 3.7 6.2 14.0 23.9 Existing offi ce 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.29 0.53 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.71 0.65 0.53 0.35 0.24 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18New Offi ce Admin 2.5 3.0 7.2 12.7 New Offi ce Admin 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.29 0.53 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.71 0.65 0.53 0.35 0.24 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18New Offi ce Engineering 3.3 4.9 11.0 19.2 New Offi ce 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.29 0.53 0.94 1.00 0.94 0.94 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.71 0.65 0.53 0.35 0.24 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
Wellbeing 19.0 7.6 5.3 31.9 Wellbeing 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.30 0.45 0.65 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.80 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.90 1.00 0.90 0.75 0.60 0.45 0.45
Housing 8.6 0.5 3.6 12.7 Housing 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.27 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.80 1.00 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.65 0.80 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.20Central services 9.8 3.8 9.0 22.6 Central services 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.55 0.70 0.85 0.90 0.85 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.85 0.90 0.85 0.70 0.70 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.85 0.70 0.45 0.45
Existing offi ce 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.74 0.79 0.85 0.93 1.00 0.98 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.58 0.52 0.38Efficiencies(To convert from EUI's to loads)
Value Unit New Offi ce Admin 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.74 0.79 0.85 0.93 1.00 0.98 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.58 0.52 0.38
Heating Plant 85%Heating plant effi ciency
New Offi ce Engineering
0.30 0.30 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.74 0.79 0.85 0.93 1.00 0.98 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.64 0.58 0.52 0.38
Cooling Plant 5.5 Cooling plant COP Wellbeing 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 1.00 0.90 0.70 0.50 0.30
Electrical Infrastructure 99%Electric conversion effi ciency
Housing 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.23 0.29 0.36 0.49 0.61 0.70 0.79 0.87 0.92 1.00 1.00 0.93 0.86 0.78 0.69 0.62 0.54 0.46 0.35 0.20 0.15
Central services 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.30 0.50 0.70 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.50 0.30 0.50 0.70 0.70 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.50 0.70 1.00 0.90 0.70 0.50 0.30
New Building Efficiency(Over CBECS/Other Survey Data)
% Electric Reduction
% Gas Reduction Existing offi ce 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.50 0.35
Existing offi ce 0% 0% New Offi ce Admin 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.50 0.65 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.65 0.50 0.35 0.20 0.20
New Offi ce Admin 0% 0%New Offi ce Engineering
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.80 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.90 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70 0.50 0.35
New Offi ce Engineering 0% 0% Wellbeing 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.50 0.35 0.35Wellbeing 0% 0% Housing 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.35 0.55 0.70 0.90 1.00 0.90 0.75 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.85 1.00 1.00 0.85 0.65 0.40 0.20Housing 0% 0% Central services 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.80 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.50 0.35 0.35Central services 0% 0%
Use New Building Efficiency Yes
Systems Output Intensity Heating Cooling Electricity TotalExisting offi ce 3.1 34.1 13.9 51.1New Offi ce Admin 2.1 16.5 7.1 25.8New Offi ce Engineering 2.8 27.0 10.9 40.6Wellbeing 16.2 41.8 5.2 63.2Housing 7.3 2.8 3.6 13.6Central services 8.3 20.9 8.9 38.1
See Weather Dependancy Basis
ELEC
See 8760 sheet
Setpoints (C)Demand Volatility
HTG
COOL
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Existing offi ce
New Office…
New Office…
Wellbeing
Housing
Weather Dependency
Heating
Cooling
Electricity
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Daily Heating ProfileExisting office New Office Admin New Office Engine ering
Wellbeing Housing Central services
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Daily Cooling ProfileExisting office New Office Admin New Office Engineering Wellbeing Housing Central services
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Daily Elec ProfileExisting office New Office Admin New Office Engineering
Conceptual Design DEF ANALYSIS
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2122 23 24 25
($5)
$0
$5
$10
Discounted Payback vs GoodBest vs GoodBetter vs Good
Years
2016
US$
mill
ion
THERMAL ENERGY CUP COMPARISONBest System, Least Cost
GOOD BETTER BEST
25-Yr Total Cost of Ownership
CapEx Cumulative 25-yr OpEx
US$
mill
ion
(in y
ear
spen
t)
Choosing by AdvantagesEconomics
Instantaneous Payback
No Payback
Good Better Best
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
($10)
($5)
$0
$5
$10 Discounted Payback vs Estimated
Bldg
Good vs BldgBetter vs BldgBest vs Bldg
2013
US
mill
ion
BLDG GOOD BETTER BEST
25-Yr Total Cost of Ownership
CapEx 25-Yr OpEx
US$
mill
ion
(in y
ear
spen
t)
THERMAL ENERGYRough Comparison to Building Scale
Assumptions:1.Used % premium from VRF @
NBV:• CapEx (CWL was $37.3M vs VRF
$31.3M)• O&M (CWL was $.50/sf vs VRF
$1.15/sf
2.Energy performance predicted by DEF:• 8.5% less energy needed annually
Years
<4 years <6 years ~6 years
19
Setting Strategies for Adaptation
20
Understanding Vulnerability
21
22
24
Here comes the commercial• Two Degrees: The Built Environment and Our
Changing Climate• www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415693004