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7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 101
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 101-127
The work reported in this paper is part of the technical assistance of the World BankrsquosSocial Protection Sector Adjustment Loan in Chile The work has been done in close col-laboration with Evaluation Office in the Ministry of Planning (MIDEPLAN) Government
of Chile under the supervision of the Executive Secretary of the program These are theviews of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Chile orthe World Bank
Development Research Group World Bank E-mail egalassoworldbankorg
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chile the short term effects of
Chile Solidario Aliviando la extrema pobreza en Chile efectos a corto plazo de
Chile Solidario
E983149983137983150983157983141983148983137 G983137983148983137983155983155983151
Abstract
This paper evaluates the effect of an anti-poverty program Chile Solidarioduring its first two years of operation We find that the program tends to in-creases significantly their take-up of cash assistance programs and of social
programs for housing and employment and to improve education and healthoutcomes for participating households There is no evidence that the participa-tion to employment program translates into improved employment or incomeoutcomes in the short term Finally we provide suggestive evidence of the keyrole that the psycho-social support had in enabling this change by increasingawareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquo orienta-
tion towards the future
Key words Program evaluation Matching estimators Extreme povertyChile
Resumen
En este estudio se evaluacutea el efecto de un programa de lucha contra la pobreza
Chile Solidario durante sus primeros dos antildeos de funcionamiento Encontramosque el programa tiende a aumentar significativamente su asimilacioacuten para los programas de asistencia en efectivo y los programas de vivienda sociales yempleo asiacute como a mejorar los resultados de la educacioacuten y la salud de loshogares participantes No hay evidencia de que la participacioacuten en programasde empleo se traduzca en mejoras en el empleo o los ingresos en el corto plazo
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1102
Finalmente la evidencia sugiere que el apoyo psicosocial ha tenido un rol fun-damental en generar este cambio tanto por medio de aumentar el conocimientoacerca de los servicios sociales en la comunidad como a traveacutes de la orientacioacutende los hogares hacia el futuro
Palabras clave Evaluacioacuten de programas Estimadores de ldquomatchingrdquo Pobrezaextrema Chile
JEL Classification c14 c51 I31 I38 O15
ldquoWe cannot be content when we know that 6 of the population lives
in conditions of indigence (hellip) We are going to go where they live We
want not only to provide subsidies we want their children to study tohave health assistance and we want to include them into social net-
works and into the society in its entirety We are going to build a bridge
between them and their rights so that they can exercise them to defeat
their conditions of extreme povertyrdquo
Ricardo Lagos President of the Republic of Chile Presidential address
May 2002
1 I983150983156983154983151983140983157983139983156983145983151983150
The perception that poverty is associated with social exclusion is subject ofpublic debate in many countries There is a general agreement that household inextreme poverty are deprived along multiple dimensions which reinforce eachother to jointly lock them into indigence Yet there are very few examples ofpolicy interventions that take this multi-dimensionality seriously so as to helpthe extreme poor to escape deprivation in a sustained way by simultaneouslyaddressing different structural constraints
An important exception approach might come from a new program aimedat tackling extreme poverty in Chile The country has experienced years ofsustained income growth during the 1990s with an average per capita GDPgrowth of 45 per cent between 1990 and 2002 As a result in the context of astable income distribution (Ferreira and Litchfield 1999)1 economic growthhas translated into a reduction in the incidence of overall poverty in the country(from 33 per cent to around 15 per cent) but without much changes in extremepoverty (stable at around 56 per cent) over the same period (World Bank2001) The benefits from growth did not trickle down to the poorest segmentsof the population despite a large array of social services targeted to the poor2
1 Between 1987 and 1994 the shape of the income distribution has only slightly changedwith a small compression at the bottom and a small increase in the upper tail (Ferreiraand Litchfield 1999 Litchfield 2001)
2 As of 1998 the first five ventiles of household income were receiving 54 of all cashassistance programs up from 40 at the beginning of the 1990s (MIDEPLAN 2002)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 103
The poorest segments are often unaware of their eligibility to certain programsor do not know how to activate the process of accessing them As a responsethe government of Chile has proactively introduced in 2002 a program ChileSolidario which aims reaching households in lsquoindigencersquo in the country with
an approach that goes beyond improving the targeting performance of publicprograms or simply providing recipients with cash assistance
The first component of the program reaches households in extreme poverty(through a proxy means testing) and provides them with a two year period ofpsycho-social support through a local social worker During this period thesocial worker works with the household to assess their needs and to help themdevise a strategy to exit extreme poverty in the short run by providing directcash transfers at a decreasing rate over time and by connecting households tovarious social programs After the two year intensive period households areensured a direct cash transfer and preferential access to assistance programsfor an additional period of three years At the same time the program aims athelping households to progressively sustain their exit from extreme poverty inthe long run by improving their human capital assets their housing and theirincome generation capacity
The second component works on the supply side by ensuring coordinationamong different programs The rational comes from the recognition that anapproach with isolated and sectoral programs does not lend itself to face themultiple and interrelated material as well as psycho-emotional deprivation of theextreme poor The objective in the long term is to move away from an approach
based on single programs towards a ldquosystemrdquo of social protection where thesupply side provides bundles of programs that are tailored to meet the specificneeds of households that are hard to reach
The program scaled up and expanded a pilot program called Puente previouslyoperating in 4 provinces The program was phased in four waves from 2002 to2005 to cover a target population of 225000 households the estimated numberof households in indigence in the country The program has subsequently evolvedto become a building block of the system of social protection in the countryEven though the primary objective is to alleviate extreme poverty over time itadded a complementary social protection focus with the objective of protecting
households from falling back into poverty when faced by uninsured riskThis document summarizes the results of the first quantitative short term
evaluation of the program (Galasso 2006) The data used in this paper for thepurpose of the evaluation uses a subset of participating households and matchednon-participants interviewed in the nationwide socio-economic survey (CASEN)in 2003 and followed up longitudinally in 2004 The results of the evaluationcover only the short term impact for the first cohorts of beneficiaries up to 2004the majority of whom are still part of the two-year phase of psycho-social sup-port by the social worker
The scope for identification comes from the design features of the programThe program assignment is based on a proxy-means score (CAS) related tounsatisfied basic needs In the empirical analysis we will exploit the exogenousgeographic variation in the distribution of the CAS score as well as in eligibilityto estimate the effect of the program on a wide array of outcomes
The results from the first two years of intervention of the program show gainsalong different dimensions of education (preschool enrolment enrollment into
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1104
school for 6-15 adult literacy) and milder effects on health outcomes (enrolmentin the public health system as well as preventive health visits for children under6 and women) The results show also a strong take-up of employment programsthough this participation is not (yet) translated into employment effects There
are no significant effects on household income per capita though participatinghouseholds are significantly more likely to be receiving social assistance transfersThere is also evidence that on average Chile Solidario participants have increasedtheir awareness of social services in the community and are more likely to bemore optimistic about their future socio-economic situation
The structure of the paper is as follows We start in section 2 with a detaileddescription of the Chile Solidario program and its assignment mechanismSection 3 presents the methodology we apply and discuss the identificationassumptions Section 4 describes the data and section 5 presents the resultsConcluding comments will be provided in section 6
2 B983137983139983147983143983154983151983157983150983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 P983154983151983143983154983137983149
The objective of alleviating extreme poverty is achieved through a two-prongedstrategy working on both the demand and the supply side of public services
The first component of Chile Solidario provides participating householdswith a two year period of psycho-social support implemented through theoutreach activities of a local social worker The social worker has a dual role
of helping households to create or restore their basic capabilities and functionsand helping them to create links and get lsquoconnectedrsquo to a local network of socialservices Heshe conveys information and represents a catalyst for households toelicit unexpressed demand for those public programs that meet their needs Thepsycho-social support has been recognized by law as an integral component ofthe intervention and represents the key distinctive feature of this approach
The multidimensional aspect of deprivation is operationalized in terms ofa set of ldquominimum conditionsrdquo which aim at measuring a minimally accept-able level of well-being along different dimensions or pillars (identification legal documentation family dynamics education health housing employment
income) During this intensive phase each family works with the worker to getfamiliarized with the minimum conditions and identifies the key priority areasto work on during the intervention The families then commit to put their effortin meeting those unmet priority conditions by signing lsquopartial contractsrsquo withthe social worker
The program includes also a small cash transfer (lsquobono de proteccioacutenrsquo)which is transferred to participating households after having signed their partialcontracts The lsquobonorsquorsquos value is tapered over time with the idea that householdsshould progressively improve their standards of living as a result of the pro-gram3 The short-term income support in the case of Chile Solidario besides the
3 The direct transfer is set at Ch$ 10500 per month for the first six months of the Puenteprogram decreases to Ch$ 8000 in the second six months of the program In the secondyear it decreases to Ch$ 5500 and finally to Ch$ 3500 for the last six months an amountequivalent to the family allowance (SUF) one of the main cash assistance transfers
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 105
lsquobonorsquo takes the form of accessing existing cash assistance program to which
participating households were already eligible to The transfer is not conditional
on any behavioral requirement on school enrolment or health visits though it
is terminated if households interrupt their participation to the program4 The
conditionality relates to the partial contracts that households signed during the
intensive phase households are expected to show efforts in working on thoseconditions that are recognized by the family itself as structural bottlenecks
and to which they have committed to After the two years of psycho-social
support households receive an unconditional exit bonus (lsquobono de egresorsquo)
for additional three years of an amount comparable to the last transfer of the
lsquobono de proteccionrsquo
The underlying rational for Puente and Chile Solidario was the realiza-
tion that households in indigence were unable to formulate and activate theirdemand for social services due to constraints to take-up that have been well
documented in the US labor literature (Currie 2004) such as information feel-
ing of helplessness and discrimination The social worker conveys information
and helps the households activate their demand for those public programs that
meet their needs
At the same time the social worker assists the households in realizing what
their needs and priorities are helps them devise a strategy (their lsquolife-time proj-
ectrsquo) by developing a set of endowments (assets skills abilities information
autonomy and self-efficacy) that allow them to autonomously sustain their exitfrom extreme poverty in the long-run
The second component of the intervention focuses on strengthening the
supply side of public services Public programs and services were previously
available for their respective eligible population upon demand Chile Solidario
works directly with the municipalities which are the local providers of public
services by making sure that the supply side is locally organized to attend theneeds of this specific target population and lsquobridgersquo the demand gap This process
is facilitated by the fact that the activities of the social workers are institutionally
grounded in each municipality (UIF Unidad de Intervencioacuten Familiar ) Theirwork and performance is supervised and coordinated by a municipal employee
(head of the UIF) Until 2004 the social workers had to work with the existing
supply of social services within the municipalities and the supply component of
the program worked mainly through facilitating the coordination and network-
ing of the different actors The supply side response in terms of volume size
and targeting performance of new programs was activated after 2004 which is
outside the scope of the current analysis
4 The drop-out rate is estimated to be very low around 3 per cent of all the householdsinvited to participate
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1102
Finalmente la evidencia sugiere que el apoyo psicosocial ha tenido un rol fun-damental en generar este cambio tanto por medio de aumentar el conocimientoacerca de los servicios sociales en la comunidad como a traveacutes de la orientacioacutende los hogares hacia el futuro
Palabras clave Evaluacioacuten de programas Estimadores de ldquomatchingrdquo Pobrezaextrema Chile
JEL Classification c14 c51 I31 I38 O15
ldquoWe cannot be content when we know that 6 of the population lives
in conditions of indigence (hellip) We are going to go where they live We
want not only to provide subsidies we want their children to study tohave health assistance and we want to include them into social net-
works and into the society in its entirety We are going to build a bridge
between them and their rights so that they can exercise them to defeat
their conditions of extreme povertyrdquo
Ricardo Lagos President of the Republic of Chile Presidential address
May 2002
1 I983150983156983154983151983140983157983139983156983145983151983150
The perception that poverty is associated with social exclusion is subject ofpublic debate in many countries There is a general agreement that household inextreme poverty are deprived along multiple dimensions which reinforce eachother to jointly lock them into indigence Yet there are very few examples ofpolicy interventions that take this multi-dimensionality seriously so as to helpthe extreme poor to escape deprivation in a sustained way by simultaneouslyaddressing different structural constraints
An important exception approach might come from a new program aimedat tackling extreme poverty in Chile The country has experienced years ofsustained income growth during the 1990s with an average per capita GDPgrowth of 45 per cent between 1990 and 2002 As a result in the context of astable income distribution (Ferreira and Litchfield 1999)1 economic growthhas translated into a reduction in the incidence of overall poverty in the country(from 33 per cent to around 15 per cent) but without much changes in extremepoverty (stable at around 56 per cent) over the same period (World Bank2001) The benefits from growth did not trickle down to the poorest segmentsof the population despite a large array of social services targeted to the poor2
1 Between 1987 and 1994 the shape of the income distribution has only slightly changedwith a small compression at the bottom and a small increase in the upper tail (Ferreiraand Litchfield 1999 Litchfield 2001)
2 As of 1998 the first five ventiles of household income were receiving 54 of all cashassistance programs up from 40 at the beginning of the 1990s (MIDEPLAN 2002)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 103
The poorest segments are often unaware of their eligibility to certain programsor do not know how to activate the process of accessing them As a responsethe government of Chile has proactively introduced in 2002 a program ChileSolidario which aims reaching households in lsquoindigencersquo in the country with
an approach that goes beyond improving the targeting performance of publicprograms or simply providing recipients with cash assistance
The first component of the program reaches households in extreme poverty(through a proxy means testing) and provides them with a two year period ofpsycho-social support through a local social worker During this period thesocial worker works with the household to assess their needs and to help themdevise a strategy to exit extreme poverty in the short run by providing directcash transfers at a decreasing rate over time and by connecting households tovarious social programs After the two year intensive period households areensured a direct cash transfer and preferential access to assistance programsfor an additional period of three years At the same time the program aims athelping households to progressively sustain their exit from extreme poverty inthe long run by improving their human capital assets their housing and theirincome generation capacity
The second component works on the supply side by ensuring coordinationamong different programs The rational comes from the recognition that anapproach with isolated and sectoral programs does not lend itself to face themultiple and interrelated material as well as psycho-emotional deprivation of theextreme poor The objective in the long term is to move away from an approach
based on single programs towards a ldquosystemrdquo of social protection where thesupply side provides bundles of programs that are tailored to meet the specificneeds of households that are hard to reach
The program scaled up and expanded a pilot program called Puente previouslyoperating in 4 provinces The program was phased in four waves from 2002 to2005 to cover a target population of 225000 households the estimated numberof households in indigence in the country The program has subsequently evolvedto become a building block of the system of social protection in the countryEven though the primary objective is to alleviate extreme poverty over time itadded a complementary social protection focus with the objective of protecting
households from falling back into poverty when faced by uninsured riskThis document summarizes the results of the first quantitative short term
evaluation of the program (Galasso 2006) The data used in this paper for thepurpose of the evaluation uses a subset of participating households and matchednon-participants interviewed in the nationwide socio-economic survey (CASEN)in 2003 and followed up longitudinally in 2004 The results of the evaluationcover only the short term impact for the first cohorts of beneficiaries up to 2004the majority of whom are still part of the two-year phase of psycho-social sup-port by the social worker
The scope for identification comes from the design features of the programThe program assignment is based on a proxy-means score (CAS) related tounsatisfied basic needs In the empirical analysis we will exploit the exogenousgeographic variation in the distribution of the CAS score as well as in eligibilityto estimate the effect of the program on a wide array of outcomes
The results from the first two years of intervention of the program show gainsalong different dimensions of education (preschool enrolment enrollment into
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1104
school for 6-15 adult literacy) and milder effects on health outcomes (enrolmentin the public health system as well as preventive health visits for children under6 and women) The results show also a strong take-up of employment programsthough this participation is not (yet) translated into employment effects There
are no significant effects on household income per capita though participatinghouseholds are significantly more likely to be receiving social assistance transfersThere is also evidence that on average Chile Solidario participants have increasedtheir awareness of social services in the community and are more likely to bemore optimistic about their future socio-economic situation
The structure of the paper is as follows We start in section 2 with a detaileddescription of the Chile Solidario program and its assignment mechanismSection 3 presents the methodology we apply and discuss the identificationassumptions Section 4 describes the data and section 5 presents the resultsConcluding comments will be provided in section 6
2 B983137983139983147983143983154983151983157983150983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 P983154983151983143983154983137983149
The objective of alleviating extreme poverty is achieved through a two-prongedstrategy working on both the demand and the supply side of public services
The first component of Chile Solidario provides participating householdswith a two year period of psycho-social support implemented through theoutreach activities of a local social worker The social worker has a dual role
of helping households to create or restore their basic capabilities and functionsand helping them to create links and get lsquoconnectedrsquo to a local network of socialservices Heshe conveys information and represents a catalyst for households toelicit unexpressed demand for those public programs that meet their needs Thepsycho-social support has been recognized by law as an integral component ofthe intervention and represents the key distinctive feature of this approach
The multidimensional aspect of deprivation is operationalized in terms ofa set of ldquominimum conditionsrdquo which aim at measuring a minimally accept-able level of well-being along different dimensions or pillars (identification legal documentation family dynamics education health housing employment
income) During this intensive phase each family works with the worker to getfamiliarized with the minimum conditions and identifies the key priority areasto work on during the intervention The families then commit to put their effortin meeting those unmet priority conditions by signing lsquopartial contractsrsquo withthe social worker
The program includes also a small cash transfer (lsquobono de proteccioacutenrsquo)which is transferred to participating households after having signed their partialcontracts The lsquobonorsquorsquos value is tapered over time with the idea that householdsshould progressively improve their standards of living as a result of the pro-gram3 The short-term income support in the case of Chile Solidario besides the
3 The direct transfer is set at Ch$ 10500 per month for the first six months of the Puenteprogram decreases to Ch$ 8000 in the second six months of the program In the secondyear it decreases to Ch$ 5500 and finally to Ch$ 3500 for the last six months an amountequivalent to the family allowance (SUF) one of the main cash assistance transfers
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 105
lsquobonorsquo takes the form of accessing existing cash assistance program to which
participating households were already eligible to The transfer is not conditional
on any behavioral requirement on school enrolment or health visits though it
is terminated if households interrupt their participation to the program4 The
conditionality relates to the partial contracts that households signed during the
intensive phase households are expected to show efforts in working on thoseconditions that are recognized by the family itself as structural bottlenecks
and to which they have committed to After the two years of psycho-social
support households receive an unconditional exit bonus (lsquobono de egresorsquo)
for additional three years of an amount comparable to the last transfer of the
lsquobono de proteccionrsquo
The underlying rational for Puente and Chile Solidario was the realiza-
tion that households in indigence were unable to formulate and activate theirdemand for social services due to constraints to take-up that have been well
documented in the US labor literature (Currie 2004) such as information feel-
ing of helplessness and discrimination The social worker conveys information
and helps the households activate their demand for those public programs that
meet their needs
At the same time the social worker assists the households in realizing what
their needs and priorities are helps them devise a strategy (their lsquolife-time proj-
ectrsquo) by developing a set of endowments (assets skills abilities information
autonomy and self-efficacy) that allow them to autonomously sustain their exitfrom extreme poverty in the long-run
The second component of the intervention focuses on strengthening the
supply side of public services Public programs and services were previously
available for their respective eligible population upon demand Chile Solidario
works directly with the municipalities which are the local providers of public
services by making sure that the supply side is locally organized to attend theneeds of this specific target population and lsquobridgersquo the demand gap This process
is facilitated by the fact that the activities of the social workers are institutionally
grounded in each municipality (UIF Unidad de Intervencioacuten Familiar ) Theirwork and performance is supervised and coordinated by a municipal employee
(head of the UIF) Until 2004 the social workers had to work with the existing
supply of social services within the municipalities and the supply component of
the program worked mainly through facilitating the coordination and network-
ing of the different actors The supply side response in terms of volume size
and targeting performance of new programs was activated after 2004 which is
outside the scope of the current analysis
4 The drop-out rate is estimated to be very low around 3 per cent of all the householdsinvited to participate
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1928
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2028
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 103
The poorest segments are often unaware of their eligibility to certain programsor do not know how to activate the process of accessing them As a responsethe government of Chile has proactively introduced in 2002 a program ChileSolidario which aims reaching households in lsquoindigencersquo in the country with
an approach that goes beyond improving the targeting performance of publicprograms or simply providing recipients with cash assistance
The first component of the program reaches households in extreme poverty(through a proxy means testing) and provides them with a two year period ofpsycho-social support through a local social worker During this period thesocial worker works with the household to assess their needs and to help themdevise a strategy to exit extreme poverty in the short run by providing directcash transfers at a decreasing rate over time and by connecting households tovarious social programs After the two year intensive period households areensured a direct cash transfer and preferential access to assistance programsfor an additional period of three years At the same time the program aims athelping households to progressively sustain their exit from extreme poverty inthe long run by improving their human capital assets their housing and theirincome generation capacity
The second component works on the supply side by ensuring coordinationamong different programs The rational comes from the recognition that anapproach with isolated and sectoral programs does not lend itself to face themultiple and interrelated material as well as psycho-emotional deprivation of theextreme poor The objective in the long term is to move away from an approach
based on single programs towards a ldquosystemrdquo of social protection where thesupply side provides bundles of programs that are tailored to meet the specificneeds of households that are hard to reach
The program scaled up and expanded a pilot program called Puente previouslyoperating in 4 provinces The program was phased in four waves from 2002 to2005 to cover a target population of 225000 households the estimated numberof households in indigence in the country The program has subsequently evolvedto become a building block of the system of social protection in the countryEven though the primary objective is to alleviate extreme poverty over time itadded a complementary social protection focus with the objective of protecting
households from falling back into poverty when faced by uninsured riskThis document summarizes the results of the first quantitative short term
evaluation of the program (Galasso 2006) The data used in this paper for thepurpose of the evaluation uses a subset of participating households and matchednon-participants interviewed in the nationwide socio-economic survey (CASEN)in 2003 and followed up longitudinally in 2004 The results of the evaluationcover only the short term impact for the first cohorts of beneficiaries up to 2004the majority of whom are still part of the two-year phase of psycho-social sup-port by the social worker
The scope for identification comes from the design features of the programThe program assignment is based on a proxy-means score (CAS) related tounsatisfied basic needs In the empirical analysis we will exploit the exogenousgeographic variation in the distribution of the CAS score as well as in eligibilityto estimate the effect of the program on a wide array of outcomes
The results from the first two years of intervention of the program show gainsalong different dimensions of education (preschool enrolment enrollment into
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1104
school for 6-15 adult literacy) and milder effects on health outcomes (enrolmentin the public health system as well as preventive health visits for children under6 and women) The results show also a strong take-up of employment programsthough this participation is not (yet) translated into employment effects There
are no significant effects on household income per capita though participatinghouseholds are significantly more likely to be receiving social assistance transfersThere is also evidence that on average Chile Solidario participants have increasedtheir awareness of social services in the community and are more likely to bemore optimistic about their future socio-economic situation
The structure of the paper is as follows We start in section 2 with a detaileddescription of the Chile Solidario program and its assignment mechanismSection 3 presents the methodology we apply and discuss the identificationassumptions Section 4 describes the data and section 5 presents the resultsConcluding comments will be provided in section 6
2 B983137983139983147983143983154983151983157983150983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 P983154983151983143983154983137983149
The objective of alleviating extreme poverty is achieved through a two-prongedstrategy working on both the demand and the supply side of public services
The first component of Chile Solidario provides participating householdswith a two year period of psycho-social support implemented through theoutreach activities of a local social worker The social worker has a dual role
of helping households to create or restore their basic capabilities and functionsand helping them to create links and get lsquoconnectedrsquo to a local network of socialservices Heshe conveys information and represents a catalyst for households toelicit unexpressed demand for those public programs that meet their needs Thepsycho-social support has been recognized by law as an integral component ofthe intervention and represents the key distinctive feature of this approach
The multidimensional aspect of deprivation is operationalized in terms ofa set of ldquominimum conditionsrdquo which aim at measuring a minimally accept-able level of well-being along different dimensions or pillars (identification legal documentation family dynamics education health housing employment
income) During this intensive phase each family works with the worker to getfamiliarized with the minimum conditions and identifies the key priority areasto work on during the intervention The families then commit to put their effortin meeting those unmet priority conditions by signing lsquopartial contractsrsquo withthe social worker
The program includes also a small cash transfer (lsquobono de proteccioacutenrsquo)which is transferred to participating households after having signed their partialcontracts The lsquobonorsquorsquos value is tapered over time with the idea that householdsshould progressively improve their standards of living as a result of the pro-gram3 The short-term income support in the case of Chile Solidario besides the
3 The direct transfer is set at Ch$ 10500 per month for the first six months of the Puenteprogram decreases to Ch$ 8000 in the second six months of the program In the secondyear it decreases to Ch$ 5500 and finally to Ch$ 3500 for the last six months an amountequivalent to the family allowance (SUF) one of the main cash assistance transfers
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 105
lsquobonorsquo takes the form of accessing existing cash assistance program to which
participating households were already eligible to The transfer is not conditional
on any behavioral requirement on school enrolment or health visits though it
is terminated if households interrupt their participation to the program4 The
conditionality relates to the partial contracts that households signed during the
intensive phase households are expected to show efforts in working on thoseconditions that are recognized by the family itself as structural bottlenecks
and to which they have committed to After the two years of psycho-social
support households receive an unconditional exit bonus (lsquobono de egresorsquo)
for additional three years of an amount comparable to the last transfer of the
lsquobono de proteccionrsquo
The underlying rational for Puente and Chile Solidario was the realiza-
tion that households in indigence were unable to formulate and activate theirdemand for social services due to constraints to take-up that have been well
documented in the US labor literature (Currie 2004) such as information feel-
ing of helplessness and discrimination The social worker conveys information
and helps the households activate their demand for those public programs that
meet their needs
At the same time the social worker assists the households in realizing what
their needs and priorities are helps them devise a strategy (their lsquolife-time proj-
ectrsquo) by developing a set of endowments (assets skills abilities information
autonomy and self-efficacy) that allow them to autonomously sustain their exitfrom extreme poverty in the long-run
The second component of the intervention focuses on strengthening the
supply side of public services Public programs and services were previously
available for their respective eligible population upon demand Chile Solidario
works directly with the municipalities which are the local providers of public
services by making sure that the supply side is locally organized to attend theneeds of this specific target population and lsquobridgersquo the demand gap This process
is facilitated by the fact that the activities of the social workers are institutionally
grounded in each municipality (UIF Unidad de Intervencioacuten Familiar ) Theirwork and performance is supervised and coordinated by a municipal employee
(head of the UIF) Until 2004 the social workers had to work with the existing
supply of social services within the municipalities and the supply component of
the program worked mainly through facilitating the coordination and network-
ing of the different actors The supply side response in terms of volume size
and targeting performance of new programs was activated after 2004 which is
outside the scope of the current analysis
4 The drop-out rate is estimated to be very low around 3 per cent of all the householdsinvited to participate
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1104
school for 6-15 adult literacy) and milder effects on health outcomes (enrolmentin the public health system as well as preventive health visits for children under6 and women) The results show also a strong take-up of employment programsthough this participation is not (yet) translated into employment effects There
are no significant effects on household income per capita though participatinghouseholds are significantly more likely to be receiving social assistance transfersThere is also evidence that on average Chile Solidario participants have increasedtheir awareness of social services in the community and are more likely to bemore optimistic about their future socio-economic situation
The structure of the paper is as follows We start in section 2 with a detaileddescription of the Chile Solidario program and its assignment mechanismSection 3 presents the methodology we apply and discuss the identificationassumptions Section 4 describes the data and section 5 presents the resultsConcluding comments will be provided in section 6
2 B983137983139983147983143983154983151983157983150983140 983151983150 983156983144983141 P983154983151983143983154983137983149
The objective of alleviating extreme poverty is achieved through a two-prongedstrategy working on both the demand and the supply side of public services
The first component of Chile Solidario provides participating householdswith a two year period of psycho-social support implemented through theoutreach activities of a local social worker The social worker has a dual role
of helping households to create or restore their basic capabilities and functionsand helping them to create links and get lsquoconnectedrsquo to a local network of socialservices Heshe conveys information and represents a catalyst for households toelicit unexpressed demand for those public programs that meet their needs Thepsycho-social support has been recognized by law as an integral component ofthe intervention and represents the key distinctive feature of this approach
The multidimensional aspect of deprivation is operationalized in terms ofa set of ldquominimum conditionsrdquo which aim at measuring a minimally accept-able level of well-being along different dimensions or pillars (identification legal documentation family dynamics education health housing employment
income) During this intensive phase each family works with the worker to getfamiliarized with the minimum conditions and identifies the key priority areasto work on during the intervention The families then commit to put their effortin meeting those unmet priority conditions by signing lsquopartial contractsrsquo withthe social worker
The program includes also a small cash transfer (lsquobono de proteccioacutenrsquo)which is transferred to participating households after having signed their partialcontracts The lsquobonorsquorsquos value is tapered over time with the idea that householdsshould progressively improve their standards of living as a result of the pro-gram3 The short-term income support in the case of Chile Solidario besides the
3 The direct transfer is set at Ch$ 10500 per month for the first six months of the Puenteprogram decreases to Ch$ 8000 in the second six months of the program In the secondyear it decreases to Ch$ 5500 and finally to Ch$ 3500 for the last six months an amountequivalent to the family allowance (SUF) one of the main cash assistance transfers
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 105
lsquobonorsquo takes the form of accessing existing cash assistance program to which
participating households were already eligible to The transfer is not conditional
on any behavioral requirement on school enrolment or health visits though it
is terminated if households interrupt their participation to the program4 The
conditionality relates to the partial contracts that households signed during the
intensive phase households are expected to show efforts in working on thoseconditions that are recognized by the family itself as structural bottlenecks
and to which they have committed to After the two years of psycho-social
support households receive an unconditional exit bonus (lsquobono de egresorsquo)
for additional three years of an amount comparable to the last transfer of the
lsquobono de proteccionrsquo
The underlying rational for Puente and Chile Solidario was the realiza-
tion that households in indigence were unable to formulate and activate theirdemand for social services due to constraints to take-up that have been well
documented in the US labor literature (Currie 2004) such as information feel-
ing of helplessness and discrimination The social worker conveys information
and helps the households activate their demand for those public programs that
meet their needs
At the same time the social worker assists the households in realizing what
their needs and priorities are helps them devise a strategy (their lsquolife-time proj-
ectrsquo) by developing a set of endowments (assets skills abilities information
autonomy and self-efficacy) that allow them to autonomously sustain their exitfrom extreme poverty in the long-run
The second component of the intervention focuses on strengthening the
supply side of public services Public programs and services were previously
available for their respective eligible population upon demand Chile Solidario
works directly with the municipalities which are the local providers of public
services by making sure that the supply side is locally organized to attend theneeds of this specific target population and lsquobridgersquo the demand gap This process
is facilitated by the fact that the activities of the social workers are institutionally
grounded in each municipality (UIF Unidad de Intervencioacuten Familiar ) Theirwork and performance is supervised and coordinated by a municipal employee
(head of the UIF) Until 2004 the social workers had to work with the existing
supply of social services within the municipalities and the supply component of
the program worked mainly through facilitating the coordination and network-
ing of the different actors The supply side response in terms of volume size
and targeting performance of new programs was activated after 2004 which is
outside the scope of the current analysis
4 The drop-out rate is estimated to be very low around 3 per cent of all the householdsinvited to participate
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1928
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2028
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 105
lsquobonorsquo takes the form of accessing existing cash assistance program to which
participating households were already eligible to The transfer is not conditional
on any behavioral requirement on school enrolment or health visits though it
is terminated if households interrupt their participation to the program4 The
conditionality relates to the partial contracts that households signed during the
intensive phase households are expected to show efforts in working on thoseconditions that are recognized by the family itself as structural bottlenecks
and to which they have committed to After the two years of psycho-social
support households receive an unconditional exit bonus (lsquobono de egresorsquo)
for additional three years of an amount comparable to the last transfer of the
lsquobono de proteccionrsquo
The underlying rational for Puente and Chile Solidario was the realiza-
tion that households in indigence were unable to formulate and activate theirdemand for social services due to constraints to take-up that have been well
documented in the US labor literature (Currie 2004) such as information feel-
ing of helplessness and discrimination The social worker conveys information
and helps the households activate their demand for those public programs that
meet their needs
At the same time the social worker assists the households in realizing what
their needs and priorities are helps them devise a strategy (their lsquolife-time proj-
ectrsquo) by developing a set of endowments (assets skills abilities information
autonomy and self-efficacy) that allow them to autonomously sustain their exitfrom extreme poverty in the long-run
The second component of the intervention focuses on strengthening the
supply side of public services Public programs and services were previously
available for their respective eligible population upon demand Chile Solidario
works directly with the municipalities which are the local providers of public
services by making sure that the supply side is locally organized to attend theneeds of this specific target population and lsquobridgersquo the demand gap This process
is facilitated by the fact that the activities of the social workers are institutionally
grounded in each municipality (UIF Unidad de Intervencioacuten Familiar ) Theirwork and performance is supervised and coordinated by a municipal employee
(head of the UIF) Until 2004 the social workers had to work with the existing
supply of social services within the municipalities and the supply component of
the program worked mainly through facilitating the coordination and network-
ing of the different actors The supply side response in terms of volume size
and targeting performance of new programs was activated after 2004 which is
outside the scope of the current analysis
4 The drop-out rate is estimated to be very low around 3 per cent of all the householdsinvited to participate
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1106
3 M983141983156983144983151983140983151983148983151983143983161
31 The assignment mechanism
Impact is defined as the change in the outcome of interest that can be
causally attributed to the program It is important to bear in mind that the
program CHS is targeted to households in extreme poverty As a consequence
differences in outcomes between participants and non-participants could be
attributed either to differences in initial conditions (such as their educational
attainment or ethnicity) or to non-observable characteristics (such as motiva-
tion or ability)
As in other examples of social programs and conditional cash transfers
programs in developing countries the program is assigned on the basis of aproxy-means score calculated on the basis of a card (CAS ficha)5 All house-holds whose scores are below a predetermined threshold are considered
eligible to participate In order to ensure a wide geographical coverage of the
program a decision was made to allow thresholds to vary across communes
and regions with the aim of reflecting differences in the poverty rates across
different geographic areas Households within municipalities are sequentially
invited to participate to the program by starting from the bottom up of their
CAS distribution6
These design features are such that two potentially eligible and observa-tionally equivalent households can have been differentially exposed to the
program
The results reported in this document use the method of matching to esti-
mate the counterfactual of no-program outcomes and estimate the impact of the
program This method estimates the counterfactual of no-program outcomes by
matching on the observable characteristics used in practice during the assign-
ment mechanism ie the CAS score Households are assigned according to the
CAS Households are assigned to participate in strict ordering depending on
their score Moreover given that households are invited to participate they areassumed not to self-select into the program based on the expected gains In this
setting participation (lsquotreatmentrsquo in the evaluation literature) is assumed to be
independent of the outcomes of interest conditional on the score
We follow Abadie and Imbens (2006) to estimate the effect of the program
on participants by matching on the CAS score (more methodological details are
5 The score is a summary index of unsatisfied basic needs that is used as pre-requisite for
participation to Chile Solidario and a wide-array of other social programs in Chile fromincome transfers (eg family allowance SUF old age public pension PASIS) as well assubsidies to health utilization(FONASA) water subsidies SAP access to public housingand childcare centers
6 Even though in principle households could refuse the invitation to participate in practice
the proportion of households who refused to is too small to meaningfully model the selec-
tion process
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 107
available in Galasso 2006) We also estimate the effect by matching on the CAS
score and adjusting the difference within the matches in their covariates7 We
perform separate estimations for rural and urban areas the incidence of poverty8
the infrastructure the supply side of public services and the labor markets faced
by households living in rural and urban areas are very different
Note that this identification strategy compares participating and non-
participating households with similar scores (and household characteristics)
One potential concern is that it assumes that the effect of the treatment does
not vary across regions andor municipalities which might be a strong as-
sumption in the context of the program which gives such an important role
to municipalities Different municipalities might face a different supply of
social services We address these concerns by presenting the results with an
additional specification where we allow for community effects in additionto household characteristics This will control for any time-invariant differ-
ences in the initial conditions of the supply side as well as for unobserved
characteristics of the local labor market9
An alternative identification strategy would rely on the exogenous variation in
the thresholds for eligibility The method of regression discontinuity design (van
der Klaaw (2002) and Chay McEwan and Urquiola (2005)) allows to estimate
the effect the program by comparing a large set of outcomes for households
just above and below the cutoffs However given that municipalities started
from the bottom-up of their CAS distribution the bulk of the distribution ofparticipants for the first cohorts is concentrated to the left of the graph away
from the cut-offs For this reason the application of this alternative method is
deemed to be more relevant to subsequent cohorts as it would allow making
inferences applicable to a larger share of the target population (see Carneiro
Galasso and Ginja (2009))
4 D983137983156983137
In order to document the evolution of impact of the program over time
the evaluation was implemented through a longitudinal survey (planned at
7 The bias-correction introduced by Abadie and Imbens (2006) removes the conditionalbias that arises when matching is performed on more than two variables are used In ourframework only one matching variable is used (ie the CAS score) We use their approach
to estimate the conditional treatment effect on the treated8 The incidence of rural poverty was found to be double the incidence of urban poverty in
1987 although the differences across urban and rural areas have converged over timeespecially for the incidence of extreme poverty (Litchfield 2001)
9 The underlying assumption behind this specification is that the supply side is given atany given point in time The assumption seems relevant in the first two years of opera-tion of the program Over time to the extent that the supply side responds differentiallydepending on the local unsatisfied demand this approach will need to be modified toensure identification
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1108
one year intervals between 2003 and 2007) The longitudinal survey identi-
fies a sample of participants and comparable non-participants identified fromthe the
nationally representative household survey ndashthe Caracterizacioacuten
Socioeconoacutemica Nacional ndashCASENndash in 2003 The survey is multi-topic
ranging from questions on demographics employment income education
health status and utilization of services to access to public subsidies and
transfers MIDEPLAN the ministry in charge of the survey as well as of the
program planned to add questions on program participation to the CASEN
administered in 2003 The sample size has been augmented to over-sample
Chile Solidario beneficiaries
In Tables 1 we report weighted means for demographic socio-economic
characteristics household income and intermediate indicators used in the analysis
The descriptive statistics (Table 1a) confirm that program has indeed been welltargeted Participants households come from larger households where both the
head and the spouse have lower educational attainments (about 23 have not
completed primary education) have lower labor force attachment and lower
assets (durables) They are also more likely to come from rural areas and from
ethnic minorities Participants are twice more likely than non-participants to
have at least one member with disabilities
In order to allow for the possibility of following up the impact of the pro-
gram over time while keeping low the survey cost MIDEPLAN agreed to
interviewed only a subset of participants together their lsquomatchedrsquo comparisonone year apart (November 2004) Two subsequent rounds of the longitudinal
survey (2006 and 2007) were collected to eventually form a four-year longi-
tudinal panel
The 2004 questionnaire has newly added questions on participation to
various social programs It has also new modules on intergenerational mobility
(with questions on the education and background of the parents) subjective
welfare as well as a short module on perceptions (problem solving perceived
social support and expectations about the future) The descriptive statistics by
participation status on the intergenerational and the perception questions aresuggestive These underlying differences in the socio-economic conditions of
participants and non-participants are also reflected in their subjective measures
of well-being with more than 23 of the participants whom consider themselves
to belong to the lower ladder of socio-economic well-being compared to 12 of
the non-participants
Finally our identification strategy requires that we observe the actual CAS
(proxy-means) score used to select households into the program 2004 panel
sample for the rest of the analysis As shown in Figure 2 the distribution of
CAS scores for participation is strictly to the left of that of non-participantsParticipants are much more likely to be eligible (having their CAS below the
relevant threshold) Next section will provide the results obtained by applying
the empirical methods outlined in section 3
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2028
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 109
TABLE 1ADESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS CASEN 2003
Non participants Participants
characteristics
head household
characteristics
head household
characteristics
Beneficiaries
mean stdev mean stdev mean stdev
Rural area 0130 0337 0307 0461
Hhrsquold income pc 128927 304879 33330 30789
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
(excl public transfers) 125925 304494 27945 30519
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc
[adjusted] 171010 439221 38339 51926Durables refrigerator 0864 0343 0470 0499
Durables calefont 0626 0484 0088 0283
Household size 3744 1749 4716 2083
Presence disabled member 0135 0397 0251 0531
male 0739 0439 0665 0472 0134 0341
age 4952 1527 4755 1539 4220 1478
agelt30 0098 0297 0125 0331 0243 0429
Education level
no education 0033 0180 0124 0330 0106 0308
Incomplete primary 0203 0403 0515 0500 0511 0500complete primary 0139 0346 0176 0381 0170 0376
Incomplete secondary 0181 0385 0119 0324
Complete secondary 0234 0423 0054 0226
Higher education 0205 0403 0008 0088
Marital status
married 0579 0494 0445 0497 0411 0492
union 0128 0334 0247 0431 0272 0445
single 0101 0301 0108 0311 0147 0355
Employment status
employed in 2000 0714 0452 0619 0486 0295 0456housework in 2000 0086 0281 0172 0378 0581 0493
unemployed in 2000 0038 0192 0070 0256 0037 0190
currently employed 0718 0450 0620 0486 0365 0481
currently unemployed 0041 0199 0079 0269 0054 0226
currently inactive 0241 0428 0302 0459 0580 0494
Relationship to the head
head 0400 0490
spouse 0483 0500
child 0080 0272
other 0037 0189Noobs 65628 5608 5360
Note Own calculation from the CASEN 2003 survey Variables are weighted using samplingweights () Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPALcorrection Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autonomorsquo pc (adjusted) is used by MIDEPLAN to calculatepoverty indexes
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1110
TABLE 1BDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS BY PARTICIPATION STATUS
PANEL SAMPLE 2003-2004
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
Demographics
household size 4756 1995 4340 1900 0276 4748 2123 4305 1920
Share hhrsquold members 0-5 0123 0146 0091 0136 0232 0112 0139 0084 0131
Share hhrsquold members 6-17 0267 0198 0233 0206 0161 0271 0201 0232 0207
Share hhrsquold members 18-64 0543 0205 0577 0238 ndash0144 0544 0209 0575 0244
Share hhrsquold members 65+ 0067 0168 0098 0230 ndash0133 0073 0177 0109 0244presence disabled member 0252 0536 0203 0493 0106 0267 0567 0199 0475
both parents present 0694 0461 0713 0453 ndash0038 0662 0473 0698 0459
head is male 0663 0473 0710 0454 ndash0098 0633 0482 0696 0460
head is married 0448 0497 0559 0497 ndash0214 0405 0491 0544 0498
ethnic minority 0105 0306 0076 0266 0101 0133 0340 0082 0275
age headlt30 0134 0340 0086 0280 0134 0108 0310 0070 0255
age head (30 40) 0279 0449 0243 0429 0056 0266 0442 0224 0417
age head (40 50) 0228 0419 0257 0437 ndash0060 0238 0426 0268 0443
age spouse lt30 0168 0374 0115 0319 0144 0133 0339 0097 0296
age spouse (30 40) 0221 0415 0217 0412 0009 0218 0413 0201 0401
age spouse (40 50) 0151 0358 0184 0387 ndash0079 0153 0360 0190 0392
rural area 0211 0408 0152 0359 0177 0230 0421 0149 0356
Family background
head - no education 0125 0331 0056 0231 0253 0127 0333 0053 0223
head - incomplete primary 0522 0500 0334 0472 0376 0528 0499 0344 0475
Spouse - no education 0049 0216 0032 0176 0097 0048 0213 0029 0167
Spouse - incomplete primary 0334 0472 0215 0411 0245 0348 0476 0206 0405
durables refrigerator 0493 0500 0778 0416 ndash0584 0475 0499 0788 0409
durables calefont 0080 0271 0374 0484 ndash0714 0066 0248 0364 0481
CAS score 46632 2761 54031 4833 ndash1396
=1 if CAS score is missing 0128 0335 0450 0497 ndash0689
Eligibility (CASltCAS cutoff) 0953 0211 0114 0352 1620
Housing
No rooms 309 136 354 114 ndash0345 307 121 349 110
Water public network 0810 0392 0910 0286 ndash0302 0838 0368 0921 0269
Sewage public network 0500 0500 0826 0379 ndash0665 0490 0500 0832 0374
Walls concrete breaks 0164 0370 0441 0497 ndash0626 0199 0399 0455 0498
Ownership own house 0439 0496 0658 0474 ndash0386 0461 0499 0662 0473
Ownership rented house 0081 0273 0096 0295 ndash0109 0077 0266 0092 0289
Roof conditions interior ceiling 0544 0498 0837 0369 ndash0617 0572 0495 0818 0386
OUTCOMES
Household Income ()
Hhrsquold income pc 31175 23596 51843 41282 33155 25060 55913 52358
Hhrsquold labor income pc 21337 21411 39458 40078 23144 24132 41945 48632
Hhrsquold non labor income pc 1814 8692 3201 11763 1252 5030 3484 18717
Hhrsquold public transfers pc 8023 10559 9185 17445 8759 11752 10483 22987
Hhrsquold lsquoingreso autoacutenomorsquo pc (excl
public transfers)
25747 23433 49803 41967 27111 25071 53635 52981
Intermediate indicators
if disabled enrolled in Nat Registry 0273 0446 0296 0457 0299 0458 0240 0427
if disabled children in education sys 0797 0404 0722 0449 0717 0451 0748 0435
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 111
2003 2004
Variables
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
householdsDiff
Std
Means
Beneficiaries
households
non-particip
households
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev mean stdev
OUTCOMES (cont)
Health (unconditional)
inscribed in SAPS (public system) 0983 0129 0914 0280 0987 0113 0933 0250
pregnant women wregular check-up 0044 0204 0036 0185 0045 0208 0035 0184
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups 0211 0408 0163 0370 0168 0374 0152 0359
all womengt35 wregular pap smear 0385 0487 0384 0486 0424 0494 0411 0492
all elderly wregular check-up 0077 0267 0100 0299 0082 0275 0117 0321
Education (unconditional)
all children 4-5 attending pre-school 0169 0374 0110 0313 0153 0360 0109 0311
All childrenlt15 enrolled in school 0674 0469 0582 0493 0652 0476 0575 0494children in school receiving assistance 0559 0497 0481 0500 0530 0499 0471 0499
all children 12-18 can readwrite 0166 0372 0158 0365 0165 0371 0176 0381
all adults can readwrite 0704 0457 0855 0352 0678 0467 0853 0354
adults enrolled in adult literacy pgm
nivelacioacuten competencia
0114 0318 0064 0244 0067 0250 0041 0198
Employment
at least one member working 0835 0371 0874 0332 0831 0374 0886 0318
Children 8-15 not in schoolampworking 00008 0031 00001 0013 00001 0000 00008 0029
at least one member with stable job+ 0751 0433 0867 0339
at least one member enrolled in micro-
emprendimiento pgm+
0306 0461 0027 0161
at least one member enrolled in emplo-
yment programs+
0096 0295 0040 0195
at least one member enrolled in the
local employment office+
0459 0498 0231 0422
at least one member enrolled in a
training program+
0182 0386 0166 0372
Income
hhrsquold receiving SUF 0606 0489 0187 0390 0639 0480 0189 0391
hhrsquold receiving asignacioacuten familiar 0116 0320 0291 0454 0117 0322 0285 0452
hhrsquold receving PASIS 0115 0319 0061 0238 0124 0330 0071 0257
Housing
hhrsquold receving SAP 0131 0337 0199 0400 0110 0313 0176 0381
received material to protect house from
raincold+
0248 0432 0045 0207
received equipment for kitchen
bedroom+
0233 0423 0013 0113
hhrsquold applying for public housing 0329 0470 0241 0428 0373 0484 0230 0421
No Obs 3495 9509 3495 9509
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample CASEN 2003-Encuesta Panel 2004 Variablesare weighted using sampling weights The column ldquodiff std meansrdquo reports the differencein means of the variables between the beneficiary and non-beneficiary households after they
have been normalized to have mean zero and unit variance() Income figures are not adjusted ie without the application of the CEPAL correction(+) indicates that the variable available only in 2004 The summary statistics for the intermediate indicators are calculated on the entire sample
irrespectively of whether the indicator applies to the population of interest (ex Having childrenless than six having at least one disabled member etc)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1112
TABLE 1CDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ON PERCEPTION QUESTIONS+ PANEL SAMPLE 2004
Head of household Spouse head
Beneficiariesnon-
participantsBeneficiaries
non-
participants
Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev Mean stdev
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en su infancia mejorrdquo 0398 049 0349 0477 0359 048 0336 0472
Subjective welfare scale
(5 ladder)
ndashldquopertenece al gruposocioeconoacutemico bajordquo 0704 0456 0479 0499 0655 0475 0400 0489
ndashldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico medio-
bajordquo 0230 0421 0343 0474 0273 0445 0397 0489
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo
por la comunidad - 2
uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0251 0434 0197 0398 0238 0426 0206 0404
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a
solucionar su problema
si tuviera un problema
importanterdquo (socialsupport) 0165 0371 0162 0369 0153 0360 0156 0362
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica
en el futuro mejor que
ahorardquo (economic situa-
tion in the future will be
better) 0599 049 0527 0499 0628 0483 0562 0496
Ha ido buscar por
iniciatica propia ayuda a
una institucioacutenrdquo (looked
for help out of owninitiative) 0428 0495 0216 0412 0448 0497 0212 0408
Aware of public pro-
grams in the community 0543 0498 0481 05 0529 0499 0493 05
Satisfaction with life in-
dex good or very good 0718 045 0783 0412 0736 0441 0814 0389
Note Own calculation from the longitudinal sample Encuesta Panel 2004 Variables are weightedusing sampling weights
The subjective welfare questions (first 3 lines) were administered only to the head and his her spouse only when present
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 113
FIGURE 1SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION (PANEL SAMPLE) BY REGION
500400300
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
RM
600 700
Note Own calculations sample of all households with information on their CAS score (panel2003-2004)
FIGURE 2SUPPORT OF THE CAS DISTRIBUTION
CAS scores and cutoff scores
500
x
400300
0
0 0 5
0 1
k d e n s i t y C A S
0 1 5
0 2
600 700
Note Own calculations from the panel sample 2003-04 Sample of all households with informationon their CAS score Vertical lines represents the ranges of the municipal (dashed) and regional(solid) cutoff scores
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1114
5 R983141983155983157983148983156983155
51 Income and employment effects
Results on the income and employment dimension are reported in Table 2using the estimated program effects on the CAS score separately by urban andrural and by year For each outcome of interest outcomes are based on matchingon the CAS score unconditionally conditionally on a large set of householdcharacteristics10 and finally conditioning on both household characteristics aswell as on municipality fixed effects
Income effects The short impact of the program on total income and laborincome is overall small and mainly non significant across alternative specifica-tions Participating households have a lsquopreferential accessrsquo to public transferssuch as the family allowance (SUF Subsidio Unico Familiar ) the old age anddisability pension (PASIS) and the potable water subsidy (SAP) The resultsin Table 2 suggest that households in Chile Solidario are more likely to havereceived the SUF especially in urban areas but less likely to be receiving thewater subsidy the old-age pension and another form of family allowance (inurban areas) The negative sign cannot be interpreted as a negative impact Theseprograms are assigned strictly on the basis of the within commune ranking of theCAS score among the applicant households The fact that we observe negativeeffects might simply reflect the fact that participating households lagged behind
in activating their demand even before the program (which is not controlled forby the observed covariates) and that Chile Solidario did not help bridge suchdifferences in take-up for such programs
Labor Supply effects Chile Solidario households exhibit very strong take-upof labor market programs they are more likely to be participating to programsaimed at supporting self-employed and more likely to be participating to publicemploymentlabor re-insertion and training programs Participation rates increaseby around 30 percentage points in urban areas and about 14 percentage pointsin rural areas for self-employment programs The same pattern is observed for
public employment program (increased by about 6 points in urban areas and4 points in rural areas) while the effect on take-up training programs is sig-nificant only in urban areas There is also a very strong effect in increasing thelikelihood of household members to be enrolled in the local employment office(OMIL) one of the minimum conditions previewed by the Chile Solidario pro-gram for unemployed members Being enrolled in such offices not only shouldfacilitate the process of looking for a job but also represents a pre-conditionfor eligibility to various public training programs
While the program activated a significant take-up on programs that mightincrease the employment prospects for the participating households in the mediumterm the results do not translate into current gains in their labor supply There
10 Namely family composition age sex marital status and education of the head of thehousehold presenceage of the spouse indicators for ethnic minority and indicators ofbasic asset ownership
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 115
TABLE 2IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS EMPLOYMENT
HOUSING AND INCOME
Panel a urban
Matching on CAS
2003 2004
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
Uncon-
ditional
Conditional
(hhrsquold)
Conditional
(hhrsquold+Commune)
ndash dimension Identification
if disabled enrolled in
Nat Registry (ident6)
ndash0042
(0067)
ndash0063
(0067)
ndash0003
(0060)
ndash0047
(0062)
0028
(0061)
0060
(0053) ndash dimension Employment
at least one member
working
0035
(0033)
ndash0017
(0027)
ndash0030
(0030)
ndash0017
(0032)
ndash0045
(0029)
ndash0053
(0028)at least one member
with stable job+ (trab1)
ndash0030
(0040)
ndash0041
(0038)
ndash0046
(0037)
Share of members
employed
ndash0003
(0028)
ndash0011
(0028)
ndash0033
(0027)
0005
(0029)
0002
(0027)
ndash0004
(0027)
Share of membersactive
0017(0026)
0005(0026)
ndash0029(0025)
0005(0027)
0006(0026)
ndash0005(0026)
childrenlt15 not in
school and working
(trab2)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
0001
(0002)
ndash ndash ndash
at least one member
enrolled in the local
empl office (trab3) +
0282
(0040)
0271
(0040)
0186
(0038)
at least one member
enrolled in programas
de micro-emprend+
0322
(0028)
0321
(0028)
0294
(0027)
at least one member
enrolled in a training
program+
0135
(0027)
0133
(0027)
0113
(0027)
at least one memberenrolled in programas
de empleo+
0077(0022)
0064(0022)
0057(0022)
ndash dimension Housing
received material to
protect house from
raincold+
0176
(0030)
0145
(0029)
0127
(0029)
received equipamiento
for kitchenbedroom+
0239
(0026)
0234
(0026)
0211
(0025)hhrsquold receiving
lsquosubsidio agua potablersquo
(SAP)
ndash0057
(0031)
ndash0070
(0031)
ndash0080
(0029)
ndash0085
(0031)
ndash0067
(0031)
ndash0071
(029)
hhrsquold ldquopostulando a
viviendardquo
0102
(0037)
0077
(0036)
0063
(0035)
0168
(0035)
0136
(0034)
0110
(0033)
ndash dimension income
hhrsquold receiving lsquosub-
sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0178
(0039)
0100
(0033)
0125
(0032)
0154
(0038)
0081
(0033)
0113
(0032)
hhrsquold receving public
pensions (PASIS)
ndash0082
(0026)
ndash0009
(0020)
0024
(0020)
ndash0079
(0027)
ndash0009
(0022)
0024
(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc ndash3457
(1826)
ndash407
(1617)
ndash4187
(1683)
ndash1695
(1975)
ndash169
(1794)
ndash2454
(1861)Hhrsquold labor income pc ndash1783
(551)
ndash2226
(1567)
ndash5753
(1607)
1732
(1904)
ndash2245
(1666)
ndash4839
(1720)
Hhrsquold non labor income
pc
ndash438
(670)
ndash623
(664)
ndash997
(667)
ndash226
(474)
ndash74
(478)
ndash386
(487)
Hhrsquold public transfers
pc
ndash1236
(966)
2442
(613)
2564
(642)
ndash2019
(1109)
2151
(711)
2771
(754)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1116
Note Matching estimator matching on the CAS score with replacement 3 nearest neighbors
Standard errors in parentheses based on the estimated variance of the sample average treat-ment effect (as in Abadie and Imbens (2006)) significant at 10 significant at 5 significant at 1 Household characteristics include household size and composition (share of males and fe-
males 0- 6-17 18-64 older than 65 is the excluded category) whether both head and spouseare in the household sex age marital status and education dummies of the head age spousewhether the household is an ethnic minority ownership of durables (refrigerator calefont)
Table 2 (cont)
Matching on CAS
Panel B Rural 2003 2004
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
Uncon-ditional
Conditional(hhrsquold)
Conditional(hhrsquold+
Commune)
ndash dimension Identificationif disabled enrolledin Nat Registry(ident6)
0064(0052)
0019(0051)
0019(0051)
0087(0052)
0110(0051)
0110(0043)
ndash dimension Employmentat least one memberworking
0011(0029)
ndash0017(0027)
ndash0017(0027)
0002(0028)
ndash0029(0027)
ndash0028(0026)
at least one memberwith stable job+
(trab1)
ndash0012(0036)
0006(0034)
0004(0033)
Share of membersemployed
0028(0023)
0028(0022)
00280022
0012(0024)
0010(0023)
0005(0022)
Share of membersactive
0049(0022)
0047(0021)
0047(0021)
0010(0023)
0007(0022)
ndash0001(0021)
childrenlt15 not inschool and working(trab2)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0001(0002)
0002(0002)
0001(0002)
at least one memberenrolled in localempl office (trab3)+
0147(0025)
0134(0025)
0110(0025)
enrolled in micro-emprendimientopgm+
0136(0029)
0139(0029)
0123(0028)
enrolled in a trainingprogram+
0023(0021)
0032(0021)
0018(0020)
enrolled in programade empleo+ 0044(0014) 0040(0014) 0031(0014) ndash dimension Housingreceived material toprotect house fromraincold+
0118(0028)
0114(0028)
0098(0027)
received equipmentfor kitchenbedroom+
0240(0022)
0236(0022)
0219(0021)
hhrsquold receiving watersubsidy (SAP)
0012(0017)
ndash0003(0017)
0001(0016)
0019(0015)
0003(0015)
0012(0016)
hhrsquold applying forpublic housing
0045(0028)
0006(0030)
0013(0029)
ndash0014(0030)
0002(0027)
ndash0021(0029)
ndash dimension incomehhrsquold receiving lsquosub-sidio uacutenico familiarrsquo
(SUF)
0111(0034)
0108(0033
0060(0028)
0063(0027)
0068(0028)
0074(0027)
hhrsquold receving publicpensions (PASIS)
ndash0057(0027)
ndash0090(0027)
0026(0022)
0009(0022)
0035(0021)
0025(0022)
Hhrsquold income pc 1648(1455)
691(1452)
2403(1311)
1604(1340)
1352(1365)
806(1373)
Hhrsquold labor incomepc
1810(1374)
2428(1294)
694(1304)
102(1243)
45(1337)
ndash564(1205)
Hhrsquold non laborincome pc
331(367)
ndash377(489)
73(371)
192(492)
35(370)
293(495)
Hhrsquold public trans-fers pc
ndash494882(767)
ndash1360(818)
1636(507)
1311(548)
1272(527)
1077(602)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1828
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 1928
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 117
is no sign of improvements of the share of members who are employed nor onthe share of members who have a stable employment (self-reported) The onlypositive and significant effects on labor force participation are observed in ruralareas with gains in the share of members who are active
On the one hand the inconclusive evidence leaves pending important ques-tions on the ability of the program in helping households achieve a sustained exitfrom extreme poverty Qualitative work 11 clearly suggests that improvements inemployment (especially those related to having a stable source of income in thehousehold) and housing are among the most important aspirations of participatingfamilies and those conditions that are perceived as structural factors preventinghouseholds to escape extreme poverty In this light they are also perceived asthe most difficult minimal conditions to meet
On the other hand the short term horizon of the current analysis might notbe sufficient to observe any impact along these dimensions In principle theemployment and earnings trajectories of those households who have participatedto self-employmentpublic workstraining programs andor those members whohad adult literacy program might improve in the medium run This short termeffects are potentially consistent with the logic of the program to satisfy somebasic needs in the short term while at the same time building the assets to allowhouseholds to improve their welfare in a sustained way in the medium-long runHowever the evidence on the effectiveness of active labor market program inNorth American and European studies is mixed with modest impact on increasingemployment rates though not much impact on earnings (Heckman LaLonde
and Smith (1999)) If any the literature shows that some of the estimated gainsare not sustained over time when longer follow-up data are available
52 Housing effects
Having their own house (lsquocasa propiarsquo) and improving its basic infrastructurealso feature as a very important dimension among the aspirations of participat-ing families (Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) Universidad de Chile (2004bc) FOSIS (2004b)12 Owning a house reinforces the identity of the householdas an independent unit and represents a capital that can be bequeathed to their
children together with the investment in human capital Besides the ownershipstatus basic sanitary and housing infrastructure are important correlates ofhousehold welfare (FOSIS (2004a)) having basic infrastructure has potentialcomplementarities with health outcomes (access to safe water and sanitation)as well as family dynamics (in terms of a space that allows for better roles andinteractions among different household members)
The results in Table 2 show significant effects on the enrollment in hous-ing programs in urban areas The estimated effect ranges from 7 in 2003
11 See footnote 612 Textual analysis of the lsquolife projectsrsquo of those households exiting the two-years period
of psycho-social support (ficha final Puente) also confirms that the modal combinationof words in the aspirations of the participating households relates to lsquohaving their ownhousersquo as well lsquoimproving their own housersquo (Silvarsquos presentation at MIDEPLAN October
2005)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1118
to double to 14 in 2004 Compared to an average take-up of 24 of non-participants (stable over time) this amounts to an estimated sizable increaseranging between 30 to 60 Enrolment in such public programs requires that thehouseholds have set some minimum amount of savings to be eligible Possibly
the cash received through public transfers (either though the lsquobonorsquo or throughthe Subsidio Unico Familiar ) has allowed the participating households to savetowards this objective
Housing is one of the dimensions along which there might have been somerationing of the supply side The results with municipality fixed effects whichcontrol for time-invariant differences in the initial availability of housing seemto rule out the rationing explanation The results with community effects donot differ significantly from the other specifications within areas (ruralurban)(though it might still be possible that the rationing applies uniformly to all
rural areas)Table 2 also shows significant effects of the program on the receipt of basichousing equipment (of about 23 percentage points) as well as basic materialto protect the house from raincold (ranging from 10-15 percentage points)
These results are also robust to controlling for community effects Overall theresults provide evidence that participating households are more likely to activatethemselves to connect to the social protection network to bridge the initial gapsin their housing situation
53 Impact on human capital outcomes
Table 3 reports all the results that relate to various dimensions of health andeducation The choice of the outcomes of interest follows the list of intermediateindicators that are set by the program as minimum conditions to be achievedby participating households and that can be measured in the CASEN surveyAll variables are computed as averages of individual outcomes at the householdlevel (independently of whether the condition apply to specific subgroups ofhouseholds or not) having in mind the objective to obtain an average effect ofthe program on the overall population of participating households The only
exception is given by outcomes that refer to households with disabled membersfor whom the baseline characteristics and the expected behavioral response areexpected to be substantially different
Education effects Overall the results suggest significant and consistent increasesin the likelihood of having all children aged 4-5 year olds enrolled in a pre-school
The effects for pre-school enrolment are in the range of 4-6 percentage pointsconsistently found in both urban and rural areas as well as across differentmethods Availability of preschools or financial constraints are not perceivedto be an issue cultural perceptions that the child is too young or that heshe is
better off taken care at home account for 90 of the self-reported reasons fornon-enrolment (MIDEPLAN analysis of CASEN 2003) On the supply sidethere are different pre-school programs that have been adapted to reach the targetpopulation by providing free access as well as flexible hours to meet the needsof working mothers even with temporary jobs or households where the head ofthe household is unemployed and the mother is looking for work
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 119
TABLE 3IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON INTERMEDIATE INDICATORS HEALTH AND
EDUCATION
Panel A Urban
2003 2004
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
Un-condit
whhrsquoldcontrols
whhrsquoldcontrols+commu-
neFE
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3)
ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0062(0027)
0027(0023)
0026(0023)
0071(0027)
0042(0023)
0035(0023)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 0096(0038)
0023(0025)
0019(0025)
0089(0038)
0000(0024)
ndash0005(0024)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
0090(0038)
0040(0033)
0063(0033)
0033(0039)
ndash0025(0033)
ndash0006(0033)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0005(0027)
ndash0009(0027)
ndash0005(0028)
ndash0010(0028)
ndash0025(0027)
ndash00140027
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0025(0024)
ndash0001(0024)
ndash0002(0024)
0039(0019)
0025(0019)
0026(0018)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0051
(0017)0036(0017)
0038(0016)
0019(0012)
ndash00010012
0010(0012)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0015)
0019(0015)
0013(0015)
ndash0012(0017)
ndash0035(0017)
ndash0044(0017)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0059(0029)
ndash0022(0027)
ndash0025(0026)
0040(0029)
ndash0015(0027)
ndash0029(0026)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear
(salud5)
0060
(0037)
0040
(0031)
0025
(0031)
0024
(0038)
ndash0029
(0032)
ndash0037
0033all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0110
(0026)ndash0060(0021)
ndash00510021
ndash0038(0024)
ndash0003(0021)
0000(0021)
Sample size 5563 5563
Panel B Rural
(1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) ndash dimension Educationall children 4-5 attending pre-school(educ1)
0047(0021)
0051(0019)
0046(0018)
ndash0004(0022)
ndash0017(0019)
ndash0013(0019)
childrenlt15 enrolled in school (educ3) 00460034
ndash0036(0023)
ndash0040(0024)
00540034
ndash0044(0022)
ndash0052(0023)
children in school receiving assistance(educ4)
00460034
ndash0011(0026)
ndash0006(0026)
0066(0034)
0008(0029)
ndash0005(0028)
all children 12-18 can readwrite (educ5) 0022(0023)
0010(0022)
0006(0022)
0022(0025)
ndash0006(0025)
ndash0003(0024)
adults enrolled in adult literacy program nivelacioacuten competencia
0053(0017)
0054(0017)
0050(0017)
00190015
0015(0015)
0015(0015)
ndash dimension Healthinscribed in SAPS (salud1) 0033
(0012)0030(0012)
0030(0012)
0010(0012)
ndash0005(0011)
ndash0002(0010)
pregnant women wregular check-up(salud2)
0022(0012)
0016(0012)
0015(0011)
ndash0005(0012)
ndash0009(0011)
ndash0009(0011)
all childrenlt6 wregular check-ups(salud4)
0035(0027)
0000(0024)
0009(0023)
0026(0024)
0015(0023)
0022(0022)
all womengt35 wregular pap smear(salud5)
0041(0032)
0009(0028)
0015(0027)
0067(0034)
0016(0028)
0026(0028)
all elderly wregular check-up (salud7) ndash0029(0022)
ndash0008(0020)
0001(0020)
ndash0053(0022)
ndash0018(0019)
ndash0010(0019)
Sample size 3270 3270
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details
Columns (4-5) Reported coefficients (Huber-White standard errors are in parentheses) froma regression of the outcome variable on an indicator of participation and a cubic polynomialin the CAS score
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2028
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1120
School enrolment of children from 6 to 15 has mildly improved (with es-timates ranging between 7-9) although the results are not robust across allmatching specifications Household in urban areas are also more likely to havetaken-up complementary programs of school materials meals and dental care
directed to subsidize direct costs of schooling for households with lower socio-economic conditions There are no fees for public schools in Chile so most ofcosts of enrolment are indirect (opportunity cost of the childrsquos time) There areno significant differences in terms of literacy of children aged 12-18
As part of its comprehensive strategy the program also targets illiterate adultsor adults that would like to complete their elementary middle school levels Onthe benefit side literacy or improvements in the educational attainment canincrease the adultsrsquo self-esteem and help process information about services
jobs and be instrumental to supporting the children in their educational learn-ing The costs of participation are not only measured in terms of opportunitycost of their leisure time after work but also in terms of psychological costs Inthis respect the psycho-social support by the social worker is instrumental todiscuss the potential benefits of such programs and to encourage the potentialparticipants to feel motivated and capable of attaining such an objective Theresults show a statistically significant take-up of adult literacy and educationcompletion programs of around 4 in urban areas and 5 percentage points inrural areas
Health effects The impact of the program on health outcomes is more muted
than the one on educational outcomes The only consistent result is that par-ticipating households are more likely to be enrolled in the public health system(SAPS) (2-3 in urban areas 3 in rural areas) The impact on health visits forpreventive care is found on some subgroups (for health visits for children belowsix years of age of the order of 4-6 percentage points only in rural areas andfor women aged 35 or older for their pap smear of the order of 6-7 mostly in2004 for rural areas and in 2003 in urban areas) The results on elderly are notsignificant in urban areas and often negative in rural areas We believe that thenegative effects are more of a reflection of the differences in the compositionof the elderly population in our sample and of the lack of sufficient covariates
that are specific to this age group13 rather than credible negative estimates ofimpact
54 Evidence on perceptions and orientation towards the future
The 2004 questionnaire includes some basic perception questions admin-istered to the head of the household andor her spouse Although some of thedifferences might be capturing underlying differences in personality traits andpersonal attitudes and preferences we assume that the distribution of these un-observed characteristics is uniformly distributed across households with similarsocio-economic characteristics and is unrelated to program participation underour identification assumptions
13 Namely we control for the share of male and female elderly in the households but fail toaccount for their initial differences in health status
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
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Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2128
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 121
TABLE 4IMPACT OF THE PROGRAM ON PERCEPTIONS (2004)
Uncon-ditional
+ hhrsquoldcontrols
+ hhrsquold
controlscommune
FE
(1) (2) (3)
Panel A Urban
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo ndash0019
(0043)
ndash0008
(0043)
ndash0067
(0042)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0008
(0040)
0016
(0039)
0068
(0038)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo 0056
(0029)
0047
(0030)
0060
(0030)ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0064
(0031)
ndash0034
(0031)
ndash0029
(0030)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0176
0040
0114
(0040)
0097
(0039)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0099
(0037)
0070
(0037)
0041
(0036)
Aware of social services in the community 0189
(0038)
0161
(0038)
0129
(0037)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0061
0036
0015
(0036)
0017
(0035)
Panel B Rural
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en su infancia mejorrdquo 0000
0034
ndash0017
(0034)
ndash0030
(0033)
Subjective welfare scale (5 ladder) - ldquopertenece al grupo
socioeconoacutemico bajordquo
ndash0012
0035
0000
(0034)
0010
(0033)
ldquoHizo alguacuten trabajo por la comunidad - 2 uacuteltimos antildeosrdquo ndash0013
0030
ndash0005
(0029)
ndash0007
(0028)
ldquoNadie lo ayudariacutea a solucionar su problema si tuviera un
problema importanterdquo
ndash0027
(0027)
ndash0019
(0027)
ndash0011
(0026)
ldquoSituacioacuten econoacutemica en el futuro mejor que ahorardquo 0136
(0035)
0077
(0035)
0068
(0034)
ldquoHa ido buscar por iniciativa propia ayuda a una institucioacutenrdquo 0050
(0032)
0028
(0031)
0024
(0031)Aware of social services in the community 0110
(0034)
0100
(0034)
0100
(0032)
Satisfaction with life index
good or very good
0043
(0029)
0056
(0029)
0050
(0028)
Note Panel Sample 2003-2004 Columns (1-3) Matching on the CAS score with replacement 3nearest neighbors See footnote on Table 2 for more details on the set of covariates
Results are presented in Table 4 Households in Chile Solidario are morelikely to be aware of social services in the community (10 percentage pointsin rural areas and 13-16 percentage points in urban areas corresponding to anincrease of the order of 20-30 relative to the non-participants) This result is inline with the main objectives of bridging the demand gap Households in urbanareas are also reporting to be more likely to proactively look for help from localinstitutions (7 percentage points)
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2228
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1122
Finally households seem to be more optimistic about their future socio-economic status (7-8 percentage points in rural areas and 10-11 percentagepoints in urban areas corresponding to an increase of about 15-20 relative tonon-participation) This improved outlook even if it is measured with a basic
perception question is likely to be correlated with their orientation towards thefuture and their willingness to invest in assets that improve their likelihood toeventually escape extreme poverty over time
983094 C983151983150983139983148983157983155983145983151983150983155
This paper provides estimates of the short run effects of Chile Solidario ona large array of household outcomes The results focus on the first two cohortsof participants where most of the beneficiaries are still under the psychoso-cial support of the social worker assigned to them The main results show asignificant and substantial effect on the take-up of cash assistance and socialservices which was one of the main objectives of the program in its incep-tion The rationale for the intervention was that households in extreme povertywere previously observed to be disconnected from the public network of socialservices and the program seemed to have bridged part of this gap Second wefind that the program in its two first years of operations improves educationaland some health outcomes of the participating households though there are noeffects on labor supply or income Finally we describe suggestive evidence that
the psycho-social support was an important factor in enabling this change byincreasing awareness of social services in the community as well as householdsrsquoorientation towards the future
The comparison with other conditional transfers programs comes naturallyto mind though it should be exercised with extreme caution The scope of theprogram (reaching 5 of the population) the institutional strength of localmunicipalities and the vast array of social services available in Chile makes ithard to extrapolate the results to other countries in the Latin American regionNonetheless the methodological approach that works jointly on the demandand supply side of social services is an innovation with respect to traditional
conditional cash transfers and has already attracted attention from other coun-tries in Central America (such as Guatemala Honduras and Colombia) Bothtypes of approaches show gains in human capital indicators with increasedhealth and education visits Gertler et al (2005) provide preliminary evidencethat some of the substantial cash transfer received by Mexican families in thecontext of Progresa (now Oportunidades) has been saved and used to financein micro-enterprise activities and increased investments in farm assets andagricultural activities
In the case of Chile Solidario future analysis beyond the short term willprovide important insights as of whether the income and employment gains aregoing to be achieved through a different strategy of intervention In the mediumterm the program aims at removing structural bottlenecks by strengtheningthe human capital of adults and expanding their employment opportunities andproductive activities (via education completiontrainingpublic employmentor self-employment programs) This expansion of opportunities through thissecond component is deemed essential to help sustain the participants exit from
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2328
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 123
extreme poverty The program impact on poverty may take time to materializeand exit from extreme poverty when achieved may or may not be sustainedover time Furthermore participating households that have been lsquolinkedrsquo tothe supply side of social services (lsquored local de proteccion socialrsquo) though the
program are expected to access the lsquoredrsquo independently in the future when facedby idiosyncratic shocks The program over time has become a building block ofthe social protection system for the poor It will be important to document itseffectiveness to prevent households from falling back into poverty when facedby uninsured risk
Finally one of the crucial innovations of the program is to bring the psychologi-cal dimension at the center of a large scale poverty intervention The paramountimportance of the psycho-social support well documented in beneficiariesrsquo as-sessments and in the qualitative work has been only touched upon in the currentanalysis by looking at a few isolated perception questions There is scope for
improving our understanding on such important dimensions by enriching thequality of instruments for measurement and study how gains in the psychologicaldimension correlate with changes in socio-economic conditions
R983141983142983141983154983141983150983139983141983155
Appadurai A (2004) ldquoThe Capacity to Aspire Culture and the Terms ofRecognitionrdquo Chapter 3 in Culture and Public Action V Rao and MWalton eds Stanford University Press Stanford
Abadie A and G Imbens (2006) ldquoLarge Sample Properties of Matching Estimatorsfor Average Treatment Effectsrdquo Econometrica 74 (1) 235-267
Asesoriacuteas para el Desarrollo (2005) ldquoNecesidades y Aspiraciones Prioritarias delas Familias que han finalizado la etapa de apoyo psicosocial del sistemade proteccioacuten social Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Bourguignon F and S Chakravarty (2003) ldquoThe measurement of multidimen-sional povertyrdquo Journal of Economic Inequality 1 25-49
Blundell R M Costa Dias C Meghir and J van Reenen (2004) ldquoEvaluatingthe Employment Impact of a Mandatory Job Search Programrdquo Journalof the European Economic Association 2 (4) 569-606
Carneiro P E Galasso and R Ginja (2009) ldquoThe Impact of Providing Psycho-Social Support to Indigent Families and Increasing their Access to SocialServices Evaluating Chile Solidariordquo mimeo Development ResearchGroup The World Bank
Clert C and Q Wodon (2001) ldquoThe Targeting of Government Programs inChilerdquo Background Paper for ldquoPoverty and Income Distribution in a HighGrowth Economy - The Case of Chile 1987-98rdquo The World Bank
Chay K P McEwan and M Urquiola (2005) ldquoThe Central Role of Noise inEvaluating Interventions that use Test Scores to Rank Schoolsrdquo American
Economic Review 95(4) pp 1237-58Currie J (2004) ldquoThe Take Up of Social Benefitsrdquo NBER Working Papers
10488 National Bureau of Economic Research IncDe Janvry A and E Sadoulet (2005) ldquoMaking Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
More Efficient Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionalityrdquoprocessed University of California at Berkeley Department of AgriculturalEconomics
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2428
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1124
Finan F A de Janvry E Sadoulet and R Vakis (2005) ldquoCan ConditionalCash Transfers Serve as Safety Nets to Keep Children at School and Outof the Labor Marketrdquo processed University of California at BerkeleyDepartment of Agricultural Economics Forthcoming in Journal of
Development EconomicsGalasso E (2006) ldquorsquoWith their effort and one opportunityrsquo Alleviating extreme
poverty in Chilerdquo (2006) mimeo Development Research Group TheWorld Bank
Gertler P and S Boyce (2001) ldquoAn experiment in incentive-based welfareThe impact of PROGRESA on health in Mexicordquo Mimeo Universityof California Berkeley
Gertler P (2004) ldquoDo Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Child HealthEvidence from PROGRESArsquos Control Randomized Experimentrdquo American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 94 (2) 336-341Gertler P S Martinez and G Rubio (2005) ldquoInvesting Cash Transfers to RaiseLong Term Living Standardsrdquo processed The World Bank
Heckman J R LaLonde and J Smith (1999) ldquoThe Economics and Econometricsof Active Labor Market Programsrdquo In Orley Ashenfelter and DavidCard eds Handbook of Labor Economics Volume 3A AmsterdamNorth-Holland 1865-2097
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004a) ldquoInforme Evaluacioacutendel Estado de Avance del Sistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004b) ldquoEfectos de la
Intervencioacuten Psicosocial en Mujeres que participan directamente en elSistema Chile Solidariordquo Santiago Chile
Universidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2004c) ldquoResultados Estudio
Evaluativo ldquoPrograma Puenterdquo y Chile Solidariordquo Santiago ChileUniversidad de Chile Facultad de Ciencias Sociales (2005) ldquoTrayectorias
Laborales en Familias del Programa Puenterdquo Programa de EstudiosDesarrollo y Sociedad (PREDES) Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004a) ldquoAvance de las Obrasrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 1 Series
Reflexiones Desde el Puente Santiago Chile
FOSIS (2004b) ldquoLas Condiciones Miacutenimas para la Construccioacuten del PuenterdquoCuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 3 Series Reflexiones Desde el Puente
Santiago ChileFOSIS (2004c) ldquoLos Apoyos Familiares Los otros Constructores del Puenterdquo
Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 4 Series Reflexiones Desde el PuenteSantiago Chile
FOSIS (2005a) ldquoEl Plano de los Servicios para Emplazar el Puente Las RedesLocales de Intervencioacutenrdquo Cuadernillo de Trabajo Nordm 5 Series Reflexiones
Desde el Puente Santiago ChileFOSIS (2005b) Con su Esfuerzo y una Oportunidad Historias de vida de fa-
milias que participan en el programa Puente Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2002) ldquoEstrategia de Intervencioacuten Integral a favor de Familias
en Extrema Pobrezardquo Divisioacuten Social Santiago ChileMIDEPLAN (2004) ldquoPobreza Distribucioacuten del Ingreso e Impacto Distributivo
del Gasto Socialrdquo volumen 1 serie CASEN 2003 Divisioacuten Social
Santiago Chile
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2528
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 125
Hahn J P Todd and W van der Klauww (2001) ldquoIdentification of TreatmentEffects by Regression-Discontinuity Designrdquo Econometrica 201-209
Lindert K E Skoufias and J Shapiro (2005) ldquoRedistributing Income to thePoor and the Rich Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbeanrdquo
paper presented at the Annual meetings of the Latin American andCaribbean Economic Association Paris
Ravallion M (2005) ldquoEvaluating Anti-Poverty Programsrdquo chapter prepared forthe Handbook of Agricultural Economics World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper Nordm 3625 The World Bank
Van der Klaauw (2002) ldquoEstimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers onCollege Enrollment A Regression Discontinuity Approachrdquo International
Economic Review 43 (3) 1249-1287
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2628
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1126
Admin Data Household survey data
(base Puente) CASEN lsquo03 PANELrsquo 04
225000 asymp73000 hhrsquolds asymp13000 hhrsquolds
participants
2002
2003
2004
2005
APPENDIX
A1 S983156983154983157983139983156983157983154983141 983151983142 983156983144983141 983148983151983150983143983145983156983157983140983145983150983137983148 983152983137983150983141983148 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
A2 C983151983150983155983156983154983157983139983156983145983151983150 983151983142 983156983144983141 983152983137983150983141983148 983155983137983149983152983148983141 983090983088983088983091-983090983088983088983092
The objective of the panel survey was to follow up over time only a sample
of the CS beneficiaries and their matched comparison group The selectedlongitudinal sample was composed of about 3400 participating households(comprising of 60 of the beneficiaries interviewed in the CASEN 2003 andof 186 new beneficiaries of the 2004 cohort identified by cross-checking theadministrative list of beneficiaries and with the namesaddresses of the originalCASEN)
The matched comparison group was constructed by estimating a propensityscore of participation into the program separately for four broad geographicareas14
The list of covariates included household size and age composition whetherthe household belongs to an ethnic minority or speaks a minority language headcharacteristics (age dummies education dummies marital status dummies
14 The four geographic areas selected by Mideplan are regions I-IV regions V-VII and XIII
regions VIII-X regions XI-XII
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2728
Alleviating extreme poverty in Chilehellip Emanuela Galasso 127
labor force history in 2000) housing characteristics asset indicators householdnon-labor income per capita a rural indicator and dummies for the regions andinteractions between housing indicators and rural
The matching was done among households who reported having filled in
a ficha CAS The prediction of the propensity score and the balancing of thecovariates performed better than in the case where the comparison group wasdrawn from all the households sampled in the CASEN)
The matching was done choosing the 3 nearest neighbors for each beneficiarywithin each geographic area Matching was done with replacement based onthe log of the odds ratios15 and imposing a common support in the propensityscore among both beneficiaries and non-participants
Comparison households were forced to be chosen within the same geo-graphic area and zone (ruralurban) for practical convenience The final sampleof original non-participants selected by MIDEPLAN for the panel includes9500 households
15 Heckman and Todd (1995) show that in the case of sampling situations where programparticipants are oversampled (choice-based sampled data) matching can still be appliedwhen matching is done on the odds ratio rather than on the propensity score Matchingon p(1-p) the odds ratios which are a monotonic transformation of the propensity scorep overcomes the problem of over-sampling
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data
7232019 Alleviating Extreme Poverty in Chile - The Short Term Effects of Chile Solidario
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullalleviating-extreme-poverty-in-chile-the-short-term-effects-of-chile-solidario 2828
Evaluating the Chilehellip F Hoces de la Guardia A Hojman O Larrantildeaga 129
Estudios de Economiacutea Vol 38 - Nordm 1 Junio 2011 Paacutegs 129-168
Valuable contributions to this work have been provided by Joseacute Miguel Benavente David
Bravo Paula Castro Dante Contreras Paz Garceacutes Rodrigo Herrera Jorge Manzi Tomaacutes
Rau Mariacutea de la Luz Ramiacuterez Jaime Ruiz-Tagle Veroacutenica Silva Sergio Urzuacutea y Ana
Mariacutea Veacuteliz We thank the support from the Centro de Microdatos Iniciativa CientiacuteficaMilenio (Project P075-023-F) The results and opinions are exclusive responsibility ofthe authors
Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Pennsylvania Student Centro de Microdatos Universidad de Chile and University of Chicago (PhD
Student) Universidad de Chile Professor and PNUD Program Officer
Evaluating the Chile Solidario program results using the
Chile Solidario panel and the administrative databases Evaluando el programa Chile Solidario resultados usando el panel
Chile Solidario y datos administrativos
F983141983154983150983137983150983140983151 H983151983139983141983155 983140983141 983148983137 G983157983137983154983140983145983137A983150983140983154983273983155 H983151983146983149983137983150 O983155983158983137983148983140983151 L983137983154983154983137983281983137983143983137
Abstract
This paper presents the results of a three-year evaluation performed on the firstcohorts of Chile Solidario the most important anti-poverty program in ChileThe paper presents a description of the program emphasizing the mechanismby which people were admitted into the program We then propose evaluationstrategies and discuss their validity The final evaluation is conducted using a
Matching estimator and we discuss the principles surrounding the potential forthis to be a valid evaluation method The initial results using the Chile SolidarioPanel suggest that the program had positive effects on psychosocial welfare
and on take-up of subsidies and social programs However it is not possible toobtain reliable results due to data shortcomings particularly the lack of baselinedata In order to solve the problem we generated a database using six yearsof administrative data including around 1000000 family records per year
A method for overcoming the treatment substitution problem is discussed andimplemented Results are much more robust than those of the Chile SolidarioPanel and show small but clearly positive effects for several variables especiallythe number of workers in the family the percentage of workers in the family andthe employment of the head of the family
Key words Matching Extreme poverty Impact evaluation Treatment substi-tution Administrative data