Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG GT-Picture offices assets/Germany/Expert... · Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG Analysis and Control of Prototypical Risks of Gas and

AGCS Expert Days 2013, Munich 04./ 05.11.2013

Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG

Analysis and Control of Prototypical Risks of Gas and Wind Turbines

Th. Gellermann, G. Müller

GT-Picture

Source: Sway Turbine AS

Source: Siemens

2

© Copyright Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG 08.11.2013

Content

Risk Analysis Process and Technical Support for Prototypes2

Conclusion

Example: Risk Control for a Prototype Gas Turbine4

Insurance of Prototypical Risks 1

5

Examples: Technical Support for Wind Turbines3

3


Risk sharing model

Wear & Tear Unforeseen and Accidential EventsDesign Risk

Power Plant Testing and Operation

Owner

Insurer

OEM

How to Cover Protoype Technology?

4


Incidents Resulting from Technical Problems – F-Class All OEM

5


Incidents Resulting from Technical Problems – F-Class All OEM

Article in Die Welt 7.3.2003:

„Turbinen: Hohe Rückstellungen Das teuerste Problem droht derzeit in der Energietechnik-Sparte: Hier könnten Schadenersatzforderungen in der Größenordnung von bis zu 2,7 Mrd. Euro auf den … Konzern zukommen … Denn bei allen 79 schweren Gasturbinen, die der Konzern an Kunden in der ganzen Welt auslieferte, traten bald technische Probleme auf. Nun fordern die Kunden Regress-Zahlungen … Die ersten 1,2 Mrd. € mussten bereits überwiesen werden …”

“Turbines: High ProvisionsThe most expensive problem threatens currently in power engineering division: This could trigger claims in the order of up to 2.7 billion euros at the ... group to come ... Because in all 79 heavy gas turbines, which delivered the Group to customers all over the world, soon technical problems occurred. Now customers are demanding recourse payments ... The first € 1.2 billion had already been paid…”

6


Prototype “Definition” and “Handling” in Insurance

IMIA-WGP64(09) Gas Turbine Paper“Prototype Insurance companies are extremely leery of underwriting such models; the insurers want to avoid subsidizing the OEM’s R&D programs by paying for the consequences of failures. This is especially true today, as insurance markets harden.” ProvenThere are some differences of opinions in the insurance industry regarding the number of machines and the number of operational hours required before they can be considered as “proven” technology. However, some “proven” technology may still be regarded as problematic.”

LEG Paper: prototypicality (2009)

“There should be no dispute that true prototype risk is not intended to be transferred to insurers…. It is not usually the underwriters’s intention to insure the risk of an untried system, or process unless with validated commercial ability of reference….which demonstrated that it (prototype) is a word with no clear definition”.

7


Prototype “Definition” and “Handling” in Insurance

IMIA-WGP64(09) Gas Turbine Paper“Prototype Insurance companies are extremely leery of underwriting such models; the insurers want to avoid subsidizing the OEM’s R&D programs by paying for the consequences of failures. This is especially true today, as insurance markets harden.” ProvenThere are some differences of opinions in the insurance industry regarding the number of machines and the number of operational hours required before they can be considered as “proven” technology. However, some “proven” technology may still be regarded as problematic.”

LEG Paper: prototypicality (2009)

“There should be no dispute that true prototype risk is not intended to be transferred to insurers…. It is not usually the underwriters’s intention to insure the risk of an untried system, or process unless with validated commercial ability of reference….which demonstrated that it (prototype) is a word with no clear definition”.

Ø Coverage triggered by Prototype (Unproven) Status

Ø Prototype Exclusion most Common

Ø No Universal Solution for Prototype Definition and Handling

8


AGCS Approach to the Insurance of Innovative Technology

Systematic Use of a Risk Analysis Process

Risk Adequate Insurance Conditions for New Gas Turbine Technology • Design Coverage• Deductibles• Exclusions

8000 Hours Problem Free Operation is a Simplified Threshold to Decide on the Prototype Character of New Technology

Close Risk Monitoring by Risk Engineers

9


Content


Conclusion



5


10


Engineering Supporton Design and

Prototype Validation

Level A Level B

Risk AssessmentEvaluation of Potential

Risks

Level C

From Risk Assessment to Engineering Support

Indepth Technical Evaluation to support Manufacturer

Engineering Support

on Design Review

Risk Control

AZTExperience from Damage Investigations

Pre & Post Loss ExperienceARC

Risk Analysis Process for Prototypes

§ Review of Technical Documents § Interviews§ Site Visits

§ Design Review§ Technical Due Diligence§ Evaluation of

Development Process

Plus:§ Laboratory Investigation§ NDT§ Load Measurements

11


Content


Conclusion



5


12


Challenge: Evolution of Modern Wind TurbinesTurbine Growth since 1980

Source: BWE Source: Siemens

13

© Copyright Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG 08.11.2013Picture: BWE

Source: Erich Hau „Windkraftanlagen“

Mean Wind Speed Turbulence

Wind shear

The Large Rotor Diameters are Affected by High Dynamic LoadsChallenge: Irregular Air Flow creates High Dynamic Loads

High Tilting Moments

acting on the Drive Train

Ø Wind speed changes with time, which is expressed by mean wind speed and turbulence grade.

Ø Wind varies also significantly with location in the rotor plane due to wind shear and strong partial wind gusts.

à Therefore, the wind power acting on the individual blade could differ much from the other blades. The result are high tilting loads on the rotor bearing and the drive train.

Irregular Air Flow on the Rotor

14


AZT Damage Investigation of Wind Turbine Components

Surface fatigue due to gray staining

Load/ Load distribution Lubrication

Manufacturing

Heat treatment fault

MaterialAl oxide inclusion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Lubrication (grey staining,micropittings)

Load (uneven contactpattern, impact, overload)

Material (material quality,non-metallic inclusions)

Production (heattreatment, grinding,

assembly)

Roo

t Cau

ses

(%)

Production• Heat treatment• Grinding• Assembly

Material• Quality• Inclusions

Load• Load assumption • Load distribution• Heavy impacts• Overload

Lubrication• Grey staining• Micropittings

AZT Statistic on Investigations of Gear Damages

15


Load Measurements &

Prototype ValidationRecommendation on Condition Monitoring

Main bearingRotor GearboxBrake/ Coupling Generator

T1

G2 G1

T2T3 T4

T5 T6

Main bearingRotor GearboxBrake/ Coupling GeneratorMain bearingRotorRotor GearboxBrake/ Coupling Generator

T1T1

G2 G1G2 G1

T2T3 T4

T2T3 T4

T5 T6T5 T6

AZT Requirements for Monitioringthe Drive Train Vibrations

Main Activities in the Area of Pre and Post LossàWith Focus on Root Cause Analysis and Damage Prevention

AZT Experience in Wind Energy

Damage Investigation&

Design Review

16


Engineering Supporton Design and

Prototype Validation

§ Design Review§ Evaluation of

Development Process§ Quality Assurance§ Load Measurements

Level A Level B

Risk AssessmentEvaluation of Potential

Risks

§ Review of Technical Documents § Interviews§ Site Visits

Level C

From Risk Assessment to Engineering Support

In depth Technical Evaluation to support Manufacturer

Engineering Support

on Design Review

§ Design Review§ Evaluation of

Development Process§ Workshops

Risk Control

AZTExperience from Damage Investigations

Pre & Post Loss ExperienceARC

Examples for Different Levels in the Risk Analysis Process for Prototypes

17


Source: Erich Hau

Fatigue damage at planet wheel caused by high edge pressure due

to uneven load distribution

Example for Drive Train Reaction on High Tilting Moments from the RotorRotor Bearing Arrangement can influence the Gearbox Loads

Source: Winergy

Please note: the damage example does not refer to

the brand of turbine or gearbox shown

18


Single Bearing

Examples for Level C - Engineering Support Separately mounted Rotor by Single Rotor Bearing

Source: Bard

Source: ESM

The gearbox is mounted on a special, flexible support system, which allows evasive movements of the gearbox when the rotor bearing and base frame deflects under high loads.

19


B_RotorX_nom PLT_vert_nom PLT_horiz_nom PLT_ax_nom Ref_Impuls

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

40.48 40.49 40.50 40.51 40.52 40.53 40.54 40.55 40.56 40.57 40.58

10^3 s

Bending Moment Gear Input Shaft

Displacement of Planet Carrier

B_Rotor_nom PLT_vert_nom PLT_horiz_nom PLT_ax_nomRef_Impuls

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

10.18 10.19 10.20 10.21 10.22 10.23 10.24 10.25

10^3 s



à This measurement has confirmed the functionality of the flexible mounting system of the gearbox and the stable gear alignment of this design.

à As a result of this measurement the manufacturer has modified the planet carrier bearings and reduced the clearance to decrease the gear misalignment.

Examples for Level C - Engineering Support Comparison of different Investigations

Source: SKFSource: SKF

20


B_RotorX_nom PLT_vert_nom PLT_horiz_nom PLT_ax_nom Ref_Impuls

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

40.48 40.49 40.50 40.51 40.52 40.53 40.54 40.55 40.56 40.57 40.58

10^3 s



B_Rotor_nom PLT_vert_nom PLT_horiz_nom PLT_ax_nomRef_Impuls

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

-1

0

1

10.18 10.19 10.20 10.21 10.22 10.23 10.24 10.25

10^3 s



Influences on Gear Load Distribution

§ Tooth Profile Modification

§ Bearing Design

§ Bearing Clearance

§ Stiffness (Base Frame, Bearing…)

§ Flexibility of Gearbox Support

Examples for Level C - Engineering Support Influences on Gear Load Distribution

21


Summary on AZT Engineering Support for Wind Turbine Prototypes

Advices on Potential Weak Points

Suggestions on Optimisation Measures

Improvement of Reliability

Input for Insurance Solution on Client Demand

AZT

ARC

22


Content


Conclusion



5


23


Starting Position:§ Siemens to Develop a New Gas Turbine Model§ Performance “World Record”§ Insurance Market vs. Prototype Technology

Engine not insurable - difficult market entrance!

Example: Risk Control of the SGT5-8000H gas turbine

Goal: Secure Insurability through Open Communication and Tailor-Made Coverage

Challenge for Insurer: Detailed Risk Analysis – Quantification – Control

24


SGT5-8000H gas turbine

Source: Siemens

25


Development – Testing – Market Introduction

Source: Siemens

Sales PreparationStrategic Product Planning Design

Product StrategyTechn. Acquisition,

Product,Technology& Developm. Planning

Conceptual Design

Basic Design

Commerciali-zation Planning

Component Tests- Combustion system rig test - Cover plate rig test - Mock up

Function Test - Test compressor at test bedBerlin

Part Tests- Casting blades & vanes- Materials, coatings- Manufacturing trials etc.- Stress / Strain verification

Risk

Assessment

Coverage Phase I

Design ImplementationFinal Design & Procurement

26


Estimation of GT - Component Risk

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Tech

nolo

gy R

isk

Gas TurbineTurbine upgradeCompressor upgrade

First Ignition

Character of Innovation

Component Tests

Simulation Effort

Experience

Instrumentation

Protection

27


Risk Assessment for Major GT-Components

Risk = Severity * Frequency

component desrciption failure scenarios

prob. loss amounts faulty item

prob. maximal consequential damage

worst case scenario

risk character

risk mitigation, validation, protection*

loss probability erection phase*

loss probability testing phase*

loss probability operation phase*

[Mio. €] [Mio. €] [Mio. €]

combustor xyzmanufacturing, assembling fault no consequential damage 1 0 3 standard high minimal very low very lowmanufacturing, assembling fault leading to consequential damage 1 10 20 standard high no very low very low

design problem leading to operation restrictions, no consequential damages (stability, pulsations, flashback, temperatures) 2 0 5 prototypical medium no high mediumdesign problem leading to consequential damages (stability, pulsations, flashback, temperatures) 2 10 20 prototypical medium no medium lowlocal overheating, restricted lifetime of components 2 0 5 prototypical medium no medium highfuel inpurities leading to blockage, pulsations, overheating 2 10 20 standard medium minimal medium very lowfaulty operation concept leading to consequential losses 0 10 40 prototypical medium no medium very lowfailures due to on-site reassembling + FOD 3 10 20 prototypical medium no medium very low

28


Coverage Concept for Prototype Gas Turbine Power Plant

Air intake

Lube oil systemDiffusorExhaust

Control Sytem

29



Source: Siemens

Sales PreparationStrategic Product Planning Design Design Implementation



Conceptual Design

Basic Design


Manufacturing & Assembly

Final Design & Procurement




Risk

Assessment

Quality

Assurance

Coverage Phase I

30


Manufacturing and Assembly – Quality Control

31


Development – Testing – Market introduction

Source: Siemens

Sales PreparationStrategic Product Planning Design Design Implementation



Conceptual Design

Basic Design



Erection, Installation,Commissioning andTrial Operation *


Prototype GT Field Testing




Risk

Assessment

Quality

Assurance

Risk

Phase I

Coverage Phase I

Control

32


Erection and Trial Operation of the Prototype SCPP – Risk Control

33



Source: Siemens

Sales PreparationStrategic Product Planning Design Design Implementation Validation



Conceptual Design

Basic Design



Erection, Installation,Commissioning andTrial Operation *

Product Monitoring *

Performance & Reliability Validation


Prototype CCField Operation

Prototype GT Field Testing




Risk

Assessment

Quality

Assurance

Risk

Phase I

Control

Phase II

Coverage Phase I

Coverage Phase II

34


Erection and Testing of the Prototype CCPP

Source: Siemens

Phase ISimple cycle plant configuration

P-type field validation

Phase IICombined cycle extension before commercial

operation

CC extension

35


Erection and Testing of the Prototype CCPP – Risk Control

Source: Siemens

36


• Validation of the Prototype Finalised• > 16.000 EOH; CCPP in Commercial Operation since July 2011• 575 MW, 60,75% Net Efficiency, 30 min for Warm Start Demonstrated

• More than 21 SGT-8000H Sold • Coverage for SGT-8000H Gas Turbines• Sales Activities Supported by Allianz Insurability Note

Status SGT-8000H

SGT-8000H is Insurable – Successful Market Entrance!

37


Other Examples for ARC / AZT – Service for “Prototype” Technology

Ø Technical Due Diligence for Alstom GT26

Ø Insurability for MHI 501J

Ø Risk Assessment – Design Review for MHI Sea Angel

38


ARC and AZT provide Technical Support for Prototype Power Plants

ØImprovement of Risk Quality

ØInsurability

Conclusion

© Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty AG 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is provided without liability for information purposes only and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty is given or to be implied as to the completeness of information or fitness for any particular purpose. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is prohibited.