14
1 Earnings Presentation 4 th Quarter 2019

Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

1

Earnings Presentation

4th Quarter 2019

Page 2: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. By their

nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events

and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek,

S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the

forward-looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.

Disclaimer

Page 3: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

2019 Highlights

3

2nd Highest Reported EBITDA in Alpek’s history (U.S. $850 million)

Comparable EBITDA exceeded 2019 Guidance figures

• U.S. $722 million vs. U.S. $718 million

Finalized sale of Cogeneration plants for U.S. $801 million in 2019 as expected

Strong financial improvement as Leverage reduced to 1.6x Net Debt to EBITDA

Improved PTA/PET capacity balance & 1st expansion outside of Americas

through acquisition of 350K PET facility in Wilton, UK

Page 4: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

4Q

Relevant References: Crude OilCrude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19

Brent Crude Oil Price

53

44

54

71

100

80

40

20

120

60

US$/Bbl

Avg.99

64

2014 2015 2016 2017 20192018

4Source: Bloomberg

Guidance

68

Page 5: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

Relevant References: ParaxylenePx prices were stable during 4Q19

5

1,7081,635 1,641

1,382

992

829898 878 900

989924 924

9771,056 1,100

1,258 1,2821,165

1,077955 937

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2Q2015 3Q

US$/Ton

2Q20132011 2012 2014 1Q 2Q3Q 4Q 1Q 4Q 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: IHS

NA Px Contract Price

US$22/ton

increase from

Sep.’19 to Dec.’19

Page 6: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

Relevant References: Integrated PET Margins’19 Avg. of U.S. $306/ton exceeded guidance, but declined in 4Q

6

200

74 69 69 62 58 71 64 63 60 72 80 81 104133 135 117 110

155 14082

193

174 186 208165 153

189148 147

180204 184 202

238

346

242

215 214

214

164

145

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 4Q

US$/Ton

2012 1Q2011 2013 2015

263

2Q

248

3Q 1Q 2Q 4Q3Q 4Q

277

1Q

478

2Q 3Q

342

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

PET

260

393

211

255

324

227

PTA

210240

276 284

212

333

370

304

227

377

China

2016 2017 2018 2019

Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET)

Source: ICIS, PCI, CCFGroup

Page 7: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

Relevant References: Propylene & PolypropyleneSlight decrease in both PGP contract prices & PP margins in 4Q19

7Source: IHS

NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP)

12 1213

15

24

27

1920

2223 23

22 2221

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

1413

cpp

11 3Q1712 1615 1Q 2Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2018 2019

76

60

6971

39

34

45

53 52

60

51

38 37 3835

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2Q1412 3Q

cpp

11 1713 1615 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 4Q

2018 2019

Page 8: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

EBITDA2nd highest Reported EBITDA in Alpek’s history

8

181

239274

149 140161

194167

220 188

170181 172

4Q181Q18

218

3Q18

148

189

2Q18 1Q19

234

2Q19

ReportedEBITDA

213

3Q19 4Q19

369356

+83%

843

662

220

188804

1,063

2018

722

2019

850

Badwill

PQS

Alpek EBITDA (US$M)

2018 2019

(1) Raw Material Carry Forward

Comparable EBITDA Comparable EBITDA exc. RMCF1

CoGen

Sale

Page 9: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

EBITDA BreakdownBetter than expected margins in both segments offset by Px price drop

9

52

11

46 46 42

167

4Q19

Comparable

6

122

RMCF1

123

6

Inventories 4Q19

Reported

Others

Polyester

P&CPolyester4Q19G

188

135

173 172

4Q19

Comparable

(w. RMCF)1

Others

12 2

P&C

125

Others

Others

EBITDA

4Q19 vs.

4Q19G(US$M)

EBITDA

2019 vs.

2019G(US$M)

(1) Raw Material Carry Forward

190

41

231

67

231

68

218

Polyester512

2019

Comparable

(w. RMCF)1

P&C

9

29

Polyester

541

RMCF1

474

P&C

789

428

2019

Reported

Others

11

Inventories2019G Others 2019

Comparable

718 722

662

Page 10: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

Raw Material Carry Forward Effect (RMCF)Comparable EBITDA + RMCF1 almost matched 2018 record figures

10

(1) Raw Material Carry Forward: Effect on margin generated from price change to raw materials between purchase vs. actual consumption. Positive or negative depending on price change

(2) Excludes PQS Badwill

(3) Excludes Cogeneration plants’ sale

2019 2018 Delta

US$M 1T 2T 3T 4T2 Total 1T 2T 3T 4T3 Total 1T 2T 3T 4T Total

Reported EBITDA 140 161 194 167 662 181 239 274 149 843 (41) (78) (80) 18 (181)

Inventory Adjustment (19) (27) (16) (6) (68) 16 20 33 (28) 41 (35) (48) (49) 22 (109)

Others 11 (1) (3) 1 9 (5) 1 7 (4) (2) 16 (1) (10) 5 10

Comparable EBITDA 148 189 213 172 722 170 218 234 181 804 (23) (29) (21) (10) (82)

Raw Material Carry

Forward(19) (28) (18) (2) (67) 11 9 (18) 2 4 (30) (36) (1) (4) (70)

Comparable EBITDA +

Raw Material Carry Forward167 217 231 173 789 160 210 251 179 800 7 7 (20) (6) (11)

Page 11: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

LeverageNet debt reduced by U.S. $706 million resulting in 1.6x leverage levels

11

Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times)

407

564

834

1,0631,022

944

864 850

1Q18 2Q194Q182Q18 1Q193Q18 3Q19 4Q19

3.1

2.9

1.9

1.7

2.2 2.22.4

1.6

3Q182Q181Q18 4Q18 2Q191Q19 3Q19 4Q19

1,270

1,637 1,603

1,832

2,2002,084

2,036

1,330

3Q181Q18 2Q18 3Q194Q18 1Q19 4Q192Q19

Page 12: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

495550

718

167

172

4Q19

YTD Sep19

2019 ReportedEBITDA

Net Extraordinary

Items

2019 Comparable

EBITDA

2019 Guidance (ex-Cogen Sale)

60

662

722

+4

2019 GuidanceAlpek met its Comparable EBITDA Guidance for 2019

12(1) Raw Material Carry Forward

Alpek Comparable EBITDA Guidance (US$M)

US$68M

inventory losses

US$789M

including RMCF1

Alpek EBITDA Guidance + CoGen (US$M)

722 718

188 200CoGen

Sale

2019 2019 Guidance

ComparableEBITDA

910 918

-8

Page 13: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

For Additional [email protected] / +52 (818) 748-1146

• 7 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles in Human Resources, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel

• BA in International Relations from ITESM

Alejandra

Bustamante

IR Manager

[email protected]

• 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek

• Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at

Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group

• BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business

Alejandro

Elizondo

IRO

[email protected]

13

Page 14: Alpek 4Q19 Earnings Presentation (ENG)4Q Relevant References: Crude Oil Crude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19 Brent Crude Oil Price 53 44 54 71 100 80 40 20 120 60 US$/Bbl Avg

14