Alternative Fuels and -Vehicles: Co-benefits and Co-costs for Indiaurbanmobilityindia.in/Upload/Conference/ab08ed07-da44... · 2015. 12. 9. · Rajkot City Profile Transport Characteristics

LowCarbonLand use Transport Integration forComprehensive Mobility Plan

Rajkot

Talat MunshiCEPT Univers i ty

City Profile

R a j k o t . . . .

Source: Wikipedia &www.dialuz.com

3

Low Carbon comprehensive Mobility Plan,Rajkot

City Profile

RUDA

RMC Area : 104.86 Sq.Km

RUDA Area : 483 Sq. Km

NH 8A

SH 23

SH 24

SH 25

NH 8A

TowardsAhmedabad

218km

Towards Gondal

40 km

TowardsBhavnagar174 km

HighwaysArterial Roads

TowardsJamnagar90 km

TowardsPorbandar181 km

Towards Morbi60 km

4Low Carbon comprehensive Mobility Plan,Rajkot

City Profile

Added 6.5LakhpopulationIn TWOdecades

Demography

The last two decades have seen a sudden spurt in populationwithin RUDA area.

This is because of the emergence of Rajkot as a major industrialproduction hub.


City Profile

RajkotVadodara

Ahmedabad

Bhavnagar

Surat

Jamnagar2.5%

4.7%

2.1%

1.1%

1.3%

- 0.5%

Demography

22nd in the world,In terms of growth rate, Rajkot city is 06th in the country, and

02nd in the state.Source: http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_growth1.html


City Profile

Demography

AgeGroups

MaleFemale

Alm

ost5

0%

With a major chunk of the population in the productive

20-45 age bracket, Rajkot has the chance to grow even faster.

7


City Profile

Demography

At the current rate of growth, Rajkot may grow into a town of

nearly 2 million population by the year 2041.This is expected to impose heavy demands on the city’s transportinfrastructure.


City Profile

Transport Characteristics

Vehicular Growth Trends in Rajkot(2001-2011)

Growing numbers of motorized two-wheelers andfour-wheelers on Rajkot roads- a sign of rising

affluence.

9


City Profile


Accidents data for Rajkot(2000-2011)

Num

ber o

f Acc

iden

ts

Rising number of fatal accidents especially over 2010-11 could worsen with increasing vehicle ownership over

succeeding years.


City Profile


Kg/

day

Per Capita Vehicle Emission

Increasing vehicle ownership(esp. M2W) could lead to rising CO2 ,

CO and NOX emissions.

This could have massive climate-change and public health-related

implications.


City Profile

Effects on health

Gases Effect on health

CO Headache, Nausea, Vomiting, Dizziness,Fatigue etc.

HCHC along with NOx and sunlight helps information of tropospheric ozone and othergreen house gases.

NOxRespiratory irritation, Headache, Eyeirritation, Loss of appetite, Corrosion of teeth,lung problems etc.

CO2Increase respiratory rate - breathing problem,hypertension, vomiting, loss of consciousness,confusion etc.

PMPremature death in lung/ heart disease,irregular heart beat, coughing/ difficulty inbreathing, asthma problem etc.

Source: Rice, S.A., 2004: Human health risk assessment of CO2: survivors of acute high-level exposure and populations sensitive to prolonged low level exposure.


Methodology

Methodology


Methodology

Stratified sampling

Socio-demographic data was collected through primary surveys and

interviews including household size, vehicleownership, type of vehicle, household Income

and daily trip information.

Such data was collected across categories shown below:

SEG 2 SEG 3

Gender

Trippurpose

Socio – economic Traits

Work

EducationShopping

Other

Male Female

SEG 1


Survey

Survey Methodology

2848Household surveysto find out socio-

demographic dataand travelbehaviour

Inventory surveysto identifypedestrianfacilities

on arterial and sub-arterial roads.

Inventory surveysto identify

NMT facilitieson arterial and sub-

arterial roads.

Surveys to identifycycle rickshaw and

auto inventory.

PT , Speed andDelay, TrafficSafety Data,Registered

vehicles, Pollutionand emission data

fromRMC, RTO, GPCB,

City Police

Surveys to identifyinventory for

private motorizedvehicles.

Classified VolumeCounts on major

junctions

Freight OD PrimarySurveys

3000vehicles

Petrol Pump SurveyAir and noise level

survey

Household Survey Locations

Travel Characteristics

Trip Purpose Mode Mode Share Trip Length

Mean Std. Deviation

Work Walk 26.0 0.90 1.91

Private Automobile 53.1 3.77 2.68

Bicycle 9.7 3.44 2.42

Shared Auto 9.2 4.50 3.12

Others 2.0 5.45 3.78

Shopping Walk 71.9 1.35 1.20

Private Automobile 14.3 2.99 2.10

Bicycle 1.4 2.94 2.31

Shared Auto 11.9 3.36 2.26

Others 0.6 1.55 1.52

Mode Share vs Income

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Auto Bicycle Bus Car Other Two Wheeler Walk

Mode Share / Gender

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Male Female

Auto Bicycle Bus Car Other Two Wheeler Walk

Type of

Accidents

Percentage of

accidents

Fatal 14.66

with Injury 73.03

without

Injury

12.31

Accidents

Footpath

Roadside Activities

TRIP

GEN

ERAT

ION

TRIP

DIST

RIBU

TIO

NM

ODE

CHO

ICE

TRIP

ASSI

GNM

ENT

GENDER + PURPOSE

TLFD CURVES FORGENDER + PURPOSE

GENDER + PURPOSE + MODE

Capacity restraints/Based on Speed & Volume

LINEAR REGRESSION

GRAVITY MODEL

BINARY LOGISTIC REGRESSION

STATIC ASSIGNMENT

+

Total Trips

ODmatrix

Road networkTAZ level data

Householddata

Modalsplit

Total TripAssignment

Map

Socio demographic and Built Environment Variables

a. Personal and Household Variables

Age This is age in years as reported by the respondent

Sex Sex of the respondent recoded as male/female

Households/Earner Number of households in the family per earning member

Motorized Vehicles/Earner Number of motorized Vehicles per earning member in the household

a. Built Environment Variables

Variable

Density Net Population Density, Net Job Density

Diversity Floor space dissimilarity Index (land-use mix). Floor space entropy index (land-use balance)

Design Road junction Kernel density,

Distance from transit

stop

Public transport stops Kernel density,

Access to Destination Distance to city centre

Potential Accessibility to Jobs

Work Trips

Mode Choice Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev

Walk 37.49 12.21 6.2 13.31 0.14 0.17

Private Automobile 39.77 11.58 15.12 31.9 0.57 0.32

Bicycle 32.57 13.90 5.08 10.25 0.12 0.18

Shared Auto 37.53 12.28 8.46 34.41 0.17 0.2

Socio-demographic Variables

Age Income per Household Vehicle per Household

Land use

Mode Choice Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev

Walk 3.17 5.68 28.84 27.53 0.48 0.24 0.21 0.2

Private Automobile 3.69 6.83 18.78 17.22 0.34 0.17 0.18 0.19

Bicycle 2.88 4.95 28.39 24.06 0.36 0.19 0.19 0.21

Shared Auto 2.96 6.36 25.31 22.02 0.39 0.18 0.18 0.19

Density

Job Population Entropy Dissimilarity

Work Trip


Walk 379.68 190.31 0.05 0.54 2505.31 1660.26 79.56 31.3


Bicycle 406.24 185.49 0.13 1.31 3944.68 2206.22 73.56 27.57

Shared Auto 400.91 186.54 2.34 22.18 3907.78 2716.82 64.12 22.98

Accessibility to

Jobs

Kernel Density

Junctions

Kernel Density

IPT stops

Distance to

City Centre

Design Access to Destination

Shopping

Mode Choice Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev Mean Std. Dev

Walk 36.59 11.69 5.11 8.09 0.28 0.26

Private Automobile 39.06 12.58 18.52 38.96 0.55 0.26

Bicycle 36.93 11.37 5.19 5.54 0.16 0.21

Shared Auto 36.68 11.1 4.48 5.3 0.29 0.26

Socio-demographic Variables

Age Income per Household Vehicle per Household

Land use


Walk 4.04 6.91 27.82 23.71 0.4 0.17 0.2332 0.2116


Bicycle 4.06 3.92 22.44 16.19 0.42 0.13 0.3079 0.2269

Shared Auto 2.85 5.4 36.85 39.91 0.44 0.19 0.2037 0.167

Density

Job Population Entropy Dissimilarity

Shopping


Walk 415.73 177.3 0.87 13.68 68.58 23.84 3345.98 2057.14

Private Automobile 408.09 173.17 0 0.02 68.96 26.07 3448.79 2097.61

Bicycle 462.18 134.27 0 0 73.66 11.07 3557.59 1738.45

Shared Auto 365.6 173.88 0 0 66.09 24.49 2719.84 1895.14

Accessibility

to Jobs

Kernel Density

Junctions

Kernel Density

IPT stops

Distance to

City Centre

Design Access to Destination

Step 1: Population and Employment Projections

Census Population Growth1991-2011

Census EmploymentGrowth

1991-2011

Floor Space required for every activity (Residential,Commercial & Industrial)

Step 2: Probabilities of Development

Location Probabilities/Activities

LocationRules

Transition probabilities/TAZ/Activities

Step 3: Distribution of Activities

Distribution of activities inTAZ

Re compute built form andactivities

New probabilities of development

Simulate Urban Growth for 2016, 2021 & 2031

Low Carbon comprehensive Mobility Plan,Rajkot 34

Business As Usual

Business As Usual2011

2021

2016

2031

2031 sees sprawl in the westerndirection.

Villages or the hamlets are growingin its own vicinity


Business As Usual

Business As Usual

Assignment 2031 shows

congestion onall the present roads


Business As Usual

Business As Usual

Avg. Trip Length:

2031 – 6.5 kms

2011 – 4.3 kms

Avg. Travel Time:

2031 – 27 minutes

2011 – 22 minutes

Modal Share


Business As Usual

Business As Usual

Accident rate:

2031 – 217 per million persons

2011 – 163 per million persons

CO2 emission:

2031 – 29.7 million tonnes

2011 – 10.7 million tonnes

Vehicle kilometres travelled

Almost, 80% of the total trips are work and education relatedtrips.

VKT

in M

illio

ns

Source: Wikipedia &www.dialuz.com

Strategies&

Projects

Landuse Strategy


Strategy - Landuse

Concept:Node and Corridor Development

Landuse strategy (2031)

MajorNode

MinorNode

Inner ring road

Outer ring road

Major Nodes : 4kmdistance

Minor Nodes: 1.5-2kmdistance


Strategy - Landuse


KKV Circle

MadhaparChowk

GreenlandChowkdi

PTC chowk

GondalChowk

HospitalChowk

MakkamChowk


Strategy - Landuse


Around Node

High density within 400mradius around node

Nod

e L

evel

1N

ode

Leve

l 2

4

FSI

3

FSI


Strategy - Landuse


More densities on the Nodes

Residential development isconstrained to RMC area

KKV Circle

MadhaparChowk Greenland

Chowkdi

GondalChowk

HospitalChowk

MakkamChowk


Strategy - Landuse


Maximum commercial

concentration on themajor and minor nodes

KKV Circle

MadhaparChowk Greenland

Chowkdi

GondalChowk

HospitalChowk

MakkamChowk


Strategy - Landuse

23.0%

30.0%

6.0%

8.0%

53.0%

36.0%

4.0%

4.0%

10.5%

16.5%

3.0%

4.5%

0.5%

1.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

BAU2031

Landuse

strategy 2031

Walk Bicycle Two Wheeler

Avg. Trip Length:

LUS2031 – 3.9 kms

BAU2031 – 6.5 kms

Avg. Travel Time:

LUS2031 – 16 minutes

BAU2031 – 27 minutes

Landuse strategy (2031)Modal Share

vs

0

5

10

BAU


Strategy - Landuse


VKT

in M

illio

ns

Vehicle Kilometres Travelled

Accident rate:

LUS2031 – 190 per million persons

BAU2031 – 217 per million persons

CO2 emission:

LUS2031 – 18.8 million tonnes

BAU2031– 29.8 million tonnes

NMT Strategy


Strategy - NMT

NMT strategy (2031)

PROBABILITIES:

Central Core:0.47RMC: 0.40RUDA: 0.38

Raiya road

Universityroad

Kalawadroad

Nana Mauvaroad

Mavdi road

Jamnagarroad

80ft road

Kuvadvaroad

Kothariyaroad

Dhebarroad

Gondalroad

Bhavnagarroad


Strategy - NMT

NMT strategy (2031)

124km widening of footpaths200km new 2m wide

footpaths


Strategy - NMT

NMT strategy (2031)

PROBABILITIES:

Central Core:0.10RMC: 0.07RUDA: 0.05

Raiya road

Universityroad

Kalawadroad

Nana Mauvaroad

Mavdi road

Jamnagarroad

80ft road

Kuvadvaroad

Kothariyaroad

Dhebarroad

Gondalroad

Bhavnagarroad

108km new dedicatedcycle lane


NMT Projects

NMT strategy (2031)


Strategy - NMT

23.0%

35.0%

6.0%

13.0%

53.0%

26.5%

4.0%

2.5%

10.5%

16.5%

3.0%

4.5%

0.5%

1.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

BAU2031

NMTstrategy 2031


Avg. Trip Length:

NMT2031 – 3.9 kms

BAU2031 – 6.5 kms

Avg. Travel Time:

NMT2031 – 16 minutes


NMT strategy (2031)Modal Share

vs


Strategy - NMT

NMT strategy (2031)

0

10

BAU


VKT

in M

illio

ns

Accident rate:

NMT2031 – 147 per million persons


CO2 emission:

NMT2031 – 17.5 million tonnes


PT Strategy


Identified Projects

PT strategy (2031)

IPT catering to currentPublic Transport demand


Identified Projects

PT strategy (2031)

Raiya road

Universityroad

KalawadroadNana Mauva

road

Mavdi road

Jamnagarroad

80ft road

Kuvadvaroad

Kothariyaroad

Dhebarroad

Gondalroad

Bhavnagarroad

675 Standard Buses

1443 Mini Buses


Strategy - PT

23.0%

32.0%

6.0%

12.0%

53.0%

20.0%

4.0%

3.0%

10.5%

18.0%

3.0%

14.0%

0.5%

1.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

BAU2031

PTstrategy 2031


PT strategy (2031)Modal share

vs

Avg. Trip Length:

PT2031 – 3.9 kms

BAU2031 – 6.5 kms

Avg. Travel Time:

PT2031 – 16 minutes



Strategy - PT

PT strategy (2031)

05

10

BAU


VKT

in M

illio

ns

Accident rate:

PT2031 – 130 per million persons


CO2 emission:

NMT2031 – 15.7 million tonnes


Technology Strategy


Strategy - Technology

Technology strategy (2031)Modal share

vs

Avg. Trip Length:

Tech2031 – 3.9 kms

BAU2031 – 6.5 kms

Avg. Travel Time:

Tech2031 – 16 minutes




Technology strategy (2031)

BIO-FUEL

CNG

ELECTRICITY

Accident rate:

Tech2031 – 130 per million persons


CO2 emission:

Tech2031 – 14.6 million tonnes


20% Reduction inCO2 Emission



ProjectsProjects Unit

Unit Cost

(inCr.)

Total cost

(in Cr.)

2016

(in Cr.)

2021

(in Cr.)

2031

(in Cr.)

Non-Motorized Transport

Footpath 378 km 0.22/km 84.03 52.15 20 11.88

Cycle lane 161 km 0.48/km 80.96 51.80 0 29.16

Public Transport

Bus requirement

ST– 675

Mini – 1443

0.4

0.25

270

360

64

169

26

3

180

188

Bus shelter 7240.03/

shelter21.72 21.72 0 0

Bus Depot 6 6 36 24 0 12

BRT 51 km 12/km 612 0 288 324

Traffic Management

Junction Improvements 75 0.5 37.5 20 17.5 0

Signages and road

markings248 km 0.03/km 7.23 5.23 0 2

Road works

New Roads 54 km 1.66/km 358 0 0 358

River Bridges 2 km 4/km 8 1.6 0.8 5.6

Street furniture 5.8 4.0 0 1.8

Street lights 74.6 33.9 25.6 15

Total Cost (in Crores) 1955.84 447.4 380.9 1127.4

☺ thank you ☺

Documents

Alternative Fuels and -Vehicles: Co-benefits and Co-costs for Indiaurbanmobilityindia.in/Upload/Conference/ab08ed07-da44... · 2015. 12. 9. · Rajkot City Profile Transport Characteristics