Upload
eitan
View
40
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change. Presented by: Steffen Mueller Ken Copenhaver University of Illinois at Chicago Energy Resources Center Presented to: LCFS Expert Working Group Sacramento, CA July, 2010. Presented by: Steffen Mueller, PhD - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Alternative Modeling Considerations to Land Use Change
Presented by:Steffen Mueller, PhD
University of Illinois at ChicagoEnergy Resources Center
Presented to:Emerging Issues Forum
Omaha, NebraskaApril 8, 2010
Presented by:Steffen Mueller
Ken Copenhaver
University of Illinois at ChicagoEnergy Resources Center
Presented to:LCFS Expert Working Group
Sacramento, CAJuly, 2010
Determine Corn Supply Areas Illinois River Energy Center (IRE):
– 115 mgpy, located in Rochelle– Startup: 11/2008– Corn Supply Area: Determined based on analysis of grower’s
database supplying to plant• 43 mile radius around the plant would include in excess of
90% of the growers Patriot Renewable Fuels (PRF):
– 100 mgpy, located in Annawan– Startup: 9/2008– Corn Supply Area: Determined based on interview with plant
personnel.• 23 mile radius around the plant would include in excess of
90% of the growers
Addresses for growers delivering to IRE in 2008 (>95%)
City addresses for growers delivering to Patriot in 2008 (>90%)
Corn Supply Areas for IRE and PRF
IRE
PRF
Corn Acre Assessment Methodology With the Draw Area established we combined USDA Cropland Data
Layer with the circle file Classification of all land other than crop was performed using the
national land cover dataset Acres in Corn were calculated using spatial data from the satellite
classification Additional Vetting was Performed:
– ¾ acre buffer along roadways was subtracted and classified separately
– Implausible conversions of ag to non-ag to ag use were classified separately
Vetting Routine Test Samples:Narrow Tree Stands
This seven acre area was classified as woodlands but appears to have been in agricultural production both years.
Trees surrounding the field may lead to the mis-classification
Roadways
This 11 acre area of roadway between two agricultural fields was identified as agriculture one year and urban in another year. Areas like this are often mis-classified when assessing land use change and were therefore removed from the project analysis.
What were 2008 Corn Acres in 2007Vetted Data
IRE PRFCorn 846,408 255,436
Soybeans 432,697 159,974
Fallow/idle cropland 518 5
Grassland 105 6Forest 534 609Pasture/Grass/Hay 29,091 10,134
Ag/Non-Ag/Ag removed 16,252 6,717
Road borders removed 301,131 102,222
Total Corn Acres in 2008 1,656,511 540,937
The start up of PRF and IRE (expansion) did not prompt a conversion of non-agricultural to agricultural land (less than 1,000 acres were converted in the vicinity of either plant)
supporting the notion that corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on non-agricultural land conversions
IRE&PRF Corn Acre History
Corn Acre History2007 2008
IRE 1,694,145 1,656,511
PRF 558,957 540,937
Despite the start-up of both PRF and IRE (expansion) in the fall of 2008 acres in corn in 2008 went down – providing further evidence that the ethanol plants have
a weak influence on corn rotations
IRE&PRF Pasture/Grass/Hay Acres Pasture/Grass/Hay Acre History
Additional grass/pasture/hay land would have been available for conversion to corn acres in the vicinity of either plant– supporting the notion that the
studied corn ethanol plants have a weak influence on agricultural land use in general
2007 2008IRE 327,812 340,421
PRF 84,418 83,729
2008 Pasture/Hay
2008 Other Classes
83,729 acres in PRF Corn Supply Area
340,421 acres in IRE Corn Supply Area
PRF and IRE Acres in Pasture/Hay Category
IRE&PRF Yield History
2006 2007 2008
IRE 176 186 177
PRF 175 192 193
Source: USDA NASS County Crop Yield Report. www.nass.usda.gov
High prevailing corn yields in the area/low soybean prices may drive planting decision
Illinois Corn Production and Use (Years 1975-2010)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
thou
sand
bus
hel
Production CarryOut FeedUse OtherUse NetExports
Illinois Planted Corn Acres
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000th
ousa
nd a
cres
Illinois corn supply and use data shows that corn productionincreases on relatively constant corn acres were sufficient to– support both
increasing exports– as well as corn for
ethanol use.
Absolute Energy LLC, St. Ansgar, IA
Start-up: February of 2008.
From 11/2008 to 8/2009 plant produced 96 mg of ethanol using 35 million bushels of corn
Minnesota
IowaSt Ansgar, IA
Findings
Absolute Energy LLC did not, in all likelihood, contribute to the conversion of non agricultural land to agricultural land in the vicinity of the plant: – Small forest and grass/pasture/hay conversions
occurred before and after the plant start-up. – Also, forest conversions are so small that they
fall within the classification error of the data set.
2006 2007 2008 Corn Acres 1,145,421 1,120,380 1,155,774 Soybean Acres 951,176 705,088 852,075
St. Ansgar Land Demand
2006 2007 2008Area County Corn Yield (bu/acre) 173.7 173.1 172.3Area County Soy Bean Yield (bu/acre) 51.2 51.3 42.9Corn Acres 1,145,421 1,120,380 1,155,774Agricultural Acres 2,379,000Ethanol Production (gallons) 95,674,000Average ethanol yield per bushel (gal/bu) 2.78Required Bushels 34,459,000St. Ansgar Corn-Ethanol Area Harvested (acres) 200,052Area Harvest to Total Ag Land (%) 8.4
DDGS Production (tons) 215,570DDGS Corn Displacement Rate (%) 0.955DDGS Soy Meal Displacement Rate (%) 0.291Soy Meal Production Rate (tonnes/tonnes) soybean (%) 0.792DDGS Soy Bean Displacement Rate (%) 0.367DDGS Corn Equivalents (tons) 205,869DDGS Soybean Equivalents (tons) 79,206Corn (lbs/bu) 56Soybeans (lbs/bu) 60Corn Yield (tons/acre) 4.82Soy Bean Yield (tons/acre) 1.29DDGS corn eq - area harvested credit (acres) 42,685DDGS soy eq - area harvested credit (acres) 61,489Total Credit (acres) 104,174St. Ansgar Net Area Harvested (acres) 95,878Net Area Harvest to Total Ag Land (%) 4
Land Requirements with DDGS co-product credit total just 95,878 acres or 4% of total ag acres in area
Corn Prices In the Supply Area
Corn Prices in the Supply Area 10 cents to deliver to River Terminal from Rochelle,
3 cents to deliver to IRE IRE bids 2 cents less than the River
– IRE assures that grower gets 5 cents more to deliver to IRE
On average IRE grower revenues increase by 5 cents
In order to assure constant supply and consistent (no heat damage, no off colored corn) quality of 120 trucks per day
Summary Findings The start up of PRF, IRE, and Absolute Energy did not prompt
a conversion of non-agricultural to agricultural land Despite slightly higher corn revenues for growers ethanol
plants have a weak influence on corn rotations and agricultural land use in general
Land Requirements with DDGS co-product credit are small compared to corn supply areas surrounding the plants
In IL corn production increases on relatively constant corn acres were sufficient to support both increasing exports as well as corn for ethanol use.
Questions
Steffen MuellerUniversity of Illinois at Chicago312-355-3982