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Aluminium Carbon ProductsA Five Year Strategic Market Outlook

• Will new Chinese petroleum coke laws have a dramatic impact on theavailability of green coke for use within the aluminium sector?

• Are there any alternatives to the threatened reduction in supply oftraditional anode grade cokes from both China and the USA?

• What is the outlook for green coke, calcined coke, coal tar pitch andthird-party carbon anode prices out to 2020?

Will shifting crude oilquality greatly reducethe availability oftraditional anode grade cokes used inthe production ofcalcined coke?

Will the US’s shale oilproduction be asdestructive to greencoke quality as feared?

Will China still have lowsulphur coke availablefor export?

What strategies arebeing adopted bycompanies producingand purchasingaluminium carbonproducts?

The global aluminium industry isundergoing major structural changes atpresent which are pushing LME pricesback down to levels not seen since2009, and potentially beyond.

Although there have been intermittentbursts of price recovery, reaching a peakof almost $2,800/tonne in April 2011,since early 2013 cash LME prices havelanguished near permanently beneath the$2,000/tonne mark.

Large swathes of smelter capacityhave been shuttered as highproduction costs make theseoperations untenable. For others, theresultant squeeze on margins has keptsmelters heavily focussed on their inputcosts in a bid to remain profitable.

This is exactly why Metal BulletinResearch has chosen to focus onproducing this brand new researchstudy, “Aluminium Carbon Products –A Five Year Strategic Market Outlook.”

While alumina and power stillconstitute the largest share ofaluminium smelters’ costs, carbonproducts are also vital components ofthe aluminium reduction process.

To a degree, the supply of these carbonproducts has been taken as granted,but the reality is that some of thissupply is currently under risk on a scalethat has not been witnessed before.

The downside for the aluminiumindustry is that the raw materialsrequired to produce both coal tar pitchand calcined coke are little more thanminor by-products from the oil andsteel sectors. They have limitedimportance when it comes toinvestment decisions, essentiallyleaving the aluminium industry withlittle control over their carbon supply.

Aluminium Carbon ProductsA Five Year Strategic Market Outlook

Metal Bulletin Research have published an in-depth study,Aluminium Carbon Products – A Five Year MarketOutlook that provides green coke, calcined petroleum cokeand coal tar pitch price forecasts, details of coke and pitchproducers and increased coverage on China’s role as a carbonsupplier to the global aluminium sector.

“MBR's comprehensive coverage of marketdevelopments, pricing and forecasts helps usunderstand and anticipate market dynamics.”HUBER

The Aluminium production cost structure

Different forms of green petroleum coke

At present there are no financially viable alternatives toproducing primary aluminium using the carbon reductionprocess. Aluminium smelters will have to continuesourcing their carbon needs from somewhere or closedown. This strategic outlook explores the most pressingthemes affecting the aluminium carbon products markettoday and analyses how this will shape the quality,geographical availability and cost of these products overthe next five years.

This study is essential reading andoffers a global coverage including:

lNorth America lEurope lChinal India lLatin America

2000

2015e

38%

29%

10%

11%

12%

39%

30%

12%

10%

9%

AluminaElectricityCarbonLabourOther

AluminaElectricityCarbonLabourOther

Aluminium Carbon Products – A Five Year Market Outlook is a timely studyproviding crucial analysis and medium-term forecasts.

• Crucial analysis of the key facts and data globally and regionally, including extended coverage of theChinese sector

• An assessment of future trends and their implication forcarbon product prices

• A review of current understanding on the impact ofshale oil on green coke quality

• A review of measures in place for smelters to adapt toshifting green coke quality

• Review of current green petroleum coke and calcinedpetroleum coke availability

• The likelihood of China prohibiting the usage of highsulphur coke, and an assessment of the potential impacton the aluminium industry

• Addressing the key issue of where smelters willpotentially source carbon products from in the future

• Production, supply and demand outlook

This study offers expert analysis,forecasting and independentguidance including:

Why is this study essential reading?

• The timing of this study is key as London Metal Exchangeprices slump to six-year lows and smelters look to cut inputcosts wherever possible to remain in operation;

• Provides a valuable insight into the industry to assist withsuccessful carbon product pricing negotiations;

• Addresses key developments in regional raw materialsupply and technological advances which may providenew sources of supply in the future.

“MBR's highly satisfactory study provided key findings onwhich our newly adopted modernisation and sales strategieswere based.”Krasnoyarsk Aluminium Smelter (RUSAL)

This study provides the must have information youand your business needs to succeed

Table of contents

1. Introduction1.1 Context1.2 Carbon input costs1.3 Net carbon consumption1.4 Anode plant capital costs1.5 Issues affecting the market today

1.5.1 Overview1.5.2 Chinese carbon supply1.5.3 Product quality issues

2. Use of Carbon Productsin the AluminiumProduction Process2.1 Introduction2.2 Anodes

2.2.1 Prebaked anodes2.2.2 Söderberg anodes

2.3 Cathodes2.4 Summary

3. Green Petroleum Coke3.1 Introduction3.2 Coking Production Process

3.2.1 Crude oil refining3.2.2 Coking process

3.3 Types of green coke3.4 Green Coke Quality

3.4.1 Overview3.4.2 Fuel-grade coke3.4.3 Anode- ‐grade (calcinable) coke3.4.4 Non-traditional anode-grade

coke3.4.5 Chemical composition

3.5 Crude Oil Composition3.5.1 Overview3.5.2 Current trends3.5.3 Shale oil

3.6 Green Coke – Regional Discussion3.6.1 Introduction3.6.2 North America3.6.3 Europe3.6.4 CIS and Eastern Europe3.6.5 Middle East, Africa and Other

Asia3.6.6 South America3.6.7 China

3.6 Green Coke – Regional Discussion3.6.1 Introduction3.6.2 North America3.6.3 Europe3.6.4 CIS and Eastern Europe3.6.5 Middle East, Africa and Other

Asia3.6.6 South America3.6.7 China

3.7 Summary3.7.1 Overview3.7.2 GPC demand3.7.3 GPC production outlook3.7.3 Uncertainties surrounding

China’s GPC production3.7.4 Regional supply-demand

balances under base caseconditions

3.8 Green Coke Pricing3.8.1 Historic context

4. Calcined PetroleumCoke4.1 Introduction4.2 Production process

4.2.1 Overview 4.2.2 Rotary kiln calcined coke

production4.2.3 Shaft kiln calcined coke

production 4.2.4 Green coke blending

4.3 Conversion Factors4.4 Sourcing of Raw Material Supplies

4.4.1 Supply contracts4.4.2 Chinese coke4.4.3 Non-traditional anode-grade

coke4.5 Global Calcining Capacity

4.5.1 North America 4.5.2 Europe 4.5.3 Asia/Middle East 4.5.4 South America 4.5.5 CIS/Eastern Europe 4.5.6 Chinacoke

4.6 Planned Calcining Projects4.6.1 North America 4.6.2 Europe 4.6.3 Asia/Middle East 4.6.4 South America 4.6.5 CIS/Eastern Europe 4.6.6 China

4.7 Global Demand for Calcined Coke4.7.1 Introduction4.7.2 CPC unit consumption in

aluminium production4.7.3 Global demand for CPC from

the aluminium sector 4.7.3 Global demand for CPC from

other sectors4.8 Global Supply-Demand Balance

for CPC4.9 CPC Pricing

5. Coal Tar Pitch5.1 Introduction5.2 Production process5.3 Pitch Use in Anode Production

5.3.1 Introduction5.3.2 Pitch quality/grade

5.4 Coal Tar Pitch Production5.4.1 Overview5.4.1 North America5.4.2 Western Europe5.4.3 Asia & Middle East5.4.4 Other – South America,

Oceania and Africa5.4.5 CIS/Eastern Europe 5.4.6 China

5.5 Coal Tar Pitch Projects5.5.1 Overview 5.5.2 Projects

5.6 Global CTP Demand5.7 CTP Supply-Demand Balance5.8 CTP Pricing

6. Carbon Anodes andCathodes6.1 Introduction6.2 Anodes

6.2.1 Anode demand6.2.2 Anode production6.2.3 China’s growing importance as

an anode supplier6.2.4 Outlook6.2.5 Anode pricing

6.3 Cathodes6.3.1 Overview 6.3.2 Cathode demand6.3.3 Cathode supply6.3.4 Cathode pricing

7. Carbon Product Demand:Five-Year Outlook7.1 Overview7.2 Primary Aluminium Production7.3 Carbon Consumption Efficiency

7.3.1 Net carbon consumption7.3.2 Gross carbon consumption

7.4 Impact of China on Carbon Demand7.5 Future Anode Demand7.6 Outlook for CPC Demand7.7 Outlook for CTP Demand7.8 Inert Anode Technology

7.8.1 Introduction7.8.2 Benefits 7.8.3 Technology 7.8.3 Progress

7.9 Outlook Summary

8. Carbon Product Supply:Five-Year Outlook8.1 Overview8.2 Outlook for CPC Supply

8.2.1 Recent trends in CPC supply8.2.2 Future CPC supply

8.3 Outlook for CTP Supply8.3.1 Recent trends in CTP supply8.3.2 Future trends in CTP supply

8.4 Outlook for Anode Supply8.4.1 Recent trends in anode supply8.4.2 Future trends in anode supply

9. Carbon Product Prices:Five-Year Outlook9.1 Overview9.2 Green Coke Pricing

9.2.1 Historic and recent pricingtrends

9.2.2 Future pricing trends9.3 Calcined Petroleum Coke Pricing

9.3.1 Historic and recent pricingtrends

9.3.2 Future pricing trends9.4 Coal Tar Pitch Pricing

9.4.1 Historic and recent pricing trends9.4.2 Future pricing trends

9.5 Anode Pricing9.5.1 Historic and recent pricing trends9.5.2 Future pricing trends

9.6 Summary

Other relevant Metal Bulletin Research publications include:

• Steel Plate Market by Grade, Dimension and Application: Global Strategic Outlook to 2024

• Impact of Environmental Policies on the Global Steel Industry: Technical and Economic Performance Assessment from the EU Perspective

• Global Aluminium Outlook by Product/Sector to 2025 • MBR Aluminium Weekly Market Tracker• MBR Base Metals Forecaster • Global Aluminium Extrusions Market Outlook by Sector to 2030 • Bauxite and Alumina Industry out to 2030

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