Amadore - Climate Change in the Philippines

8/6/2019 Amadore - Climate Change in the Philippines

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Climate Change Impacts, Threats,

and Vulnerabilities:

The Philippine SettingLeoncio A.Amadore, Ph.D.

DFA Auditorium

Manila, 18 April 2007


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Observed Climate Change-Related Changes (IPCC, SPM-1, 2007)

Warming ofthe climatesystem isunequivocal,as is now evidentfrom observationsof increases in:

1. global averageair and oceantemperatures

2. rising global

mean sea level3. widespread

melting ofsnow and ice


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Signals of Climate Change

ObservedClimate-related Events (IPCC-SPM1,2 - 2007) Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006)

rank among the 12 warmest years (since 1850,instrument record). The updated 100-year lineartrend (19062005) is now 0.74C

Hot days, hot nights, and heat waves havebecome more frequent over the last 50 years.Cold days, cold nights and frost have becomeless frequent

More intense and longer droughts have been

observed over wider areas since the 1970s,particularly in the tropics and subtropics. ElNio phenomena have been more frequent, persistentand intense since the mid-1970s .

Increase in frequency of heavyprecipitation events over most areas andintense tropical cyclone activity


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Signals of Climate Change

Average temperature of the globalocean has increased to depths of atleast 3000 m; the ocean has beenabsorbing more than 80% of the heat

added to the climate system

Global average sea level rose at anaverage rate of 1.8 mm per year over1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over

1993 to 2003, about 3.1 mm per year, verylikely due to losses from the ice sheets ofGreenland and Antarctica

Mountain glaciers and snow cover have

declined on average in both


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Climate Change Signals, Impactsand Vulnerabilities the Philippine Setting

Surface temperatureincrease and sea levelrise are consistent withglobal trends. Hot daysand hot nights havebecome more frequent

Deadly and damagingtyphoons, floods, flashfloods, landslides, severe ElNio and La Nia events,drought, forest fires, etc.occurred more frequently,

since 1980. Agriculture; fresh water,

coastal and marineresources; health, etc,adversely affected

ANNUAL M AN T MP RATUR ANOMAL N

T P L PP N

y = 0.0143x - 0.206

-3.0

-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5

61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00

Y

AR

T

MP

RATUR

ANOMAL


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Vulnerability to Drought (El Nino) of Major

Agriculture Crops

Note that 1982-83, 1989-90 and1997-98 were El Nino Years


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Effect of Typhoons on the GDP and Agriculture

Agriculture is the Sector most affected by tropical cyclones.

The highest ratio of tropical cyclone damage to agricultural

output was 4.21% in 1990, followed in 1988 by 4.05%.

Typhoon damage rose to more than 1% of GDP in 1984,

1988, and 1.17%, the highest, in 1990. (Data source: NDCC/NSCB, 2003)


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Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change

The frequency ofoccurrence of extreme

events affects the

rainfall and inflow

patterns of the

reservoirs.

Annual inflow at Angatdam were most

deficient during the

1983-84 and 1997-98

strong El Nios (resultedin water rationing in Metro

Manila)

During the 70s, more

cold, La Nina-type

episodes dominated

resulting to a relatively

moist decade


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Health in relation to Weather/Climate Parameters

Many vector-, food-,and water-borneinfectious diseasesare sensitive tochanges in climaticconditions

Rainfall andhumidity datacould be usefulindicators ofrise in dengueand othervector/waterborne infectiouscases)


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Vulnerability of Coastal (Marine) Resources to Warming

The diversity of corals

could be affected with thebranching corals (e.g., staghorn coral)

decreasing or becoming locally extinct and the

massive corals (e.g., brain corals) increasing

(WGII TAR, 2001)

Massive coral bleaching in

various reefs through- outthe Philippines during the

severe 1997-98 ENS

episode (Arceo, H.O. et al., 2001)

Fish kills and high

mortality of cultured giantclams, severe red tide

outbreaks after strong El

Nio periods. The worst incidenceof red tide in Manila Bay occurred in

1992, another El Nio period.


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Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

The Ormoc catastrophic

flash flood(November 5, 1991):More than 5000 people perished.Unusually heavy, continuous rainsbrought by Trop.Storm Uringcaused landslides and flashfloodsand dam-break-like effect at thecollapse ofAnilao Bridge

CherryHill tragedy(August 1999):Three consecutive days ofpersistent moderate to heavy rainscaused mud to cascade into theCherry Hill leaving 378 housesdamaged and 58 people killed

Baguio-La Trinidad

landslides (July 2001): A record-breaking 24-hour rainfall of 1085.8millimeters was registered atBaguio City causing widespreadlandslides and flashfloods, killing85 persons in Baguio and LaTrinidad area alone.

Payatas garbage-slide (July10, 2000): Continuous moderate toheavy monsoon rains overMetro

Manila for several days caused the

collapse of the Payatas garbage pile,

resulting in 224 deaths and 100

houses destroyed


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Camiguin flashfloods (November 7,2001): Heavy continuous rains forabout 10 hours caused flashfloodscarrying landslide debris of boulders,uprooted trees, loose soil, etc.rushing from the mountainsideburying 134 residents alive anddamaging vegetation and structures.

Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster(December 2003): Several landslidesand flash-floods in Mindanao andSouthern Leyte caused by days ofpersistent rains resulted in 198 deathsin S. Leyte and Mindanao (Agusan-Surigao)

Aurora-Infanta floods(November-December 2004): Heavyrains triggered major landslides;cleansed the forests of its debrisresulting in heavy damage andcasualty downstream along rivers andcoastal areas in eastern Luzon (1,068dead, damage estimate - P7,615.98M)

Extreme Weather Events: Tragedies after tragedies


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Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

Recently, heavy, continuous rains caused massivelandslides in:

Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte

Legaspi, Albay

These extreme weather events have one

thing in common persistent torrentialrains, causing landslides and flash floods,killing people and destroying propertiesalong its path.


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What to expect in the 21st Century?(IPCC-TAR, 2001, SPM1.2, 2007)

Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights,heat waves over most land areas (virtuallycertain)

Frequency of heavy precipitation eventsincreases over most areas (very likely) resulting

in increased flood, landslide, soil erosion,mudslide, etc

Increase in tropical cyclone peak windintensities, mean and peak precipitationintensities are likely, in some areas.

More intense droughts and floods associatedwith El Nio events in many different regions arelikely to occur.

Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise wouldcontinue for centuries, even if greenhouse gasconcentrations were to be stabilized.

For the next two decades a warming of about


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Future Climate Change Impacts/Risks(IPCC/SPM 1&2, 2007)

Fresh water resources and their management - Increase in

water demand, in drought-affected areas.and in heavyprecipitation/flood risk Increase in water availability at higher latitudes,decrease in some tropics

Ecosystems - The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to beexceeded this century. Increased risk of extinction of some plant andanimal species if increases in global temperature exceed 1.5-2.5C.

Food, fibre and forest products - At lower latitudes, cropproductivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperatureincreases (1-2C), which would increase risk of hunger.

Industry, Settlement and Society - The most vulnerableindustries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal andriver flood plains, in areas prone to extreme weather events and poorcommunities.

Coastal systems and low-lying areas - Millions of people in themega-deltas of Asia and Africa and in small islands are projected to beflooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Corals arevulnerable to thermal stress and low adaptive capacity. More frequentcoral bleaching events

Health - Projected climate change-related exposures are likely toaffect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low


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Causes and Attributions

Most of the observedincrease in theglobally averagedtemperature since themid-20th century isvery likely due to theobserved increase in

anthropogenicgreenhouse gas (GHG)concentrations (SPM1,2007)

Even if the Philippineswill not burn a single

drop of oil, it cannotprevent climatechange!

Internationalcooperation is the

key to climatechan e miti ation

aste

%

Agriculture

%Industry

%

Energy

%

The Energy Pie of the Philippines, 1990

Philippine GHG emission compared to other

countries


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Lessen the impacts of climate change:

Undertake systematic physical, social andeconomic vulnerability assessments and

adopt appropriate adaptation measures;(extreme weather events and sea level rise

scenarios should be given priority, due to ourunique geographical setting and our proneness to

storm surges); improve the warning system and disaster

management; upgrade climate change awareness; incorporate

appropriate measures into national development plans, etc.

Adopt mitigation measures to lessen greenhousegas emissions: shift in energy mix, adoption of energyefficiency measures ( no regrets actions resulting inpositive ancillary benefits)

The way forward


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Participate in the Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto

Protocol and other internationalcooperation ventures

The way forward

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Amadore - Climate Change in the Philippines