American I'lanniug AjisiitiaiLOii 7

America 2040

MegapolitansThe U.S. is on track to add another

100 million residents by about 2040.

Where will all these people live?| { y K d l u T l I . . I . i i n p : a n d . \ r l h i i r C . N e l s o n , F A I C P

he answer is in super regions that combine at least two, and oftenseveral, metropolitan areas. We call these regions "megapoUtanareas" or "megas" for short.

Many of us sense chat a large-scale metropolitan convergenceis under way because we see metro areas that were once distinctplaces now merging into enormous urhan complexes. Dallasand Fort Worth converged in the 1960s, as Washington andBaltimore did two decades later.Today, regions with multiplecities, like Phoenix and Tucson, Tampa and Orlando, and SanAntonio and Austin, are exhibiting the same pattern, only on amore massive scale.

To drivers on Interstate 85, the entire North Carolina Piedmont

New housing ai the edge ofthe Florida Everglades. Photo courtesyWeitzer Communities.

8 I'Unning January 2007

extending from Raleigh to Charlotte seems likeone continuous suburb. Development in the nowfully integrated Dallas-Fore Worth metroplexspills north dong 1-35 and will evencuaily reachOklahoma Cicy.

We have developed rhe mcgapoliran conceptin part to depict where the next 100 millionAmericans will live. The analysis found 20emerging megapoiitan areas thatare based on theU.S. Census Bureau's definition of a combinedstatistical area, or CSA. The 15 most populousmetros are In megapolitan areas, as are 36 ofthenation's 50 top metropolitan areas.

The nit'gas we have identified are essentiallythe CSAs of 2040—derived by extending thecensus's current statistical methods scver:il de-cades forward. The main criterion for a census-defined CSA Is economic interdependence, asevidenced hy overlapping commuting patterns.The same is true for megapolitans. Based onprojections of commuting patterns, the 2010census should find that Phoenix-Tucson andWashington-Baltimore-Richmond qualify asCSAs. In 2020, several more metropolitan areaswill pass this threshold, and at mid-century all20 megapolitan areas we have identified shouldofificiaily be CSAs.

Organizations like the Lincoln Institute ofLand Policy and the New York-ba.sed RegionalPlan Association are aiso developing new regionalmodels and planning strategies to manage futuremetropolitan expansion. Last year, those twoorganizations convened the National Commit-tee for America 2050—a coalition of plannersand civic leaders—^to develop a framework forAmericas rapid population growth and theemergence of what they call "megaregions."

This new concept was explored in a Universityof Pennsylvania planning studio taught in 2005by Armando Carbonell, AK:!', cochair of theLincoln Institutes department ofplanningandurban form, and Robert Yaro, president oftheRegional Plan Association. Although rhe Pennmegaregions do not account For overlapping com-m u ter sheds, they nonetheless describe networksot mostly contiguous metropolitan areas.

Six of the Penn megaregions encompass twoor more of the megapolitan areas we have identi-fied, five of which lie east of the 100th meridianline—the nation's midpoint. The Texas Gulf,Texas Corridor, and Greater Metroptex formwhat Carbonell and Yaro call the Texas Triangle.When our megapolitan areas combine intoeven larger urban complexes, 10 megaregionsresult—five east and five west. Some megas,such as the Sun Corridor, are both megapolitanareas and stand-alone megaregions.

In contrast, the Texas Corridor megapoli-tan area (San Antonio-Austin) is one of three

Tao Condominiums,a luxury hotising

project, is being builtin Sunrise, Florida,

at the edge oftheEverglades (below

and on previouspuge). SurroundingBroiuard County-

part ofFbriddsTreasure Coast—is

one ofthe fastestgrowing areas in

the U.S. A photo ojthe site in westernBroward County

(bottom).

Ameticaii Planning As

Phoenix (above) and Tucson—7nore than 100 miles away—will merge together tocreate a megapoUtan, the authors say. By 2040 two of every three Americans will live inone of 20 megapolitans.

megapolitans in the Texas Triangle megaregion.Likewise, the Willamette Valley i.s one of twomegapolicans (along with the Piigct Sound) thatform rhe Cascadia mcgarcgion.

More than six out of every 10 Americans,or 18! million people, lived in the nation's 20rnegapolitan areas in 2005. Yet mt-gas account foronly a tenth ofthe nation s land area. This yieldsa density over 500 people per square mile, or thebottom threshold of what the CA-IISUS Bureaudefines as "urbanized areas." MegapoUtan popu-lation density reaches ahout haUthat of Japanand exceeds the figure tor the European Union(both of which are expected to lose more than1 5 million people by mid-century). The rise ofmegapolitans refutes the notion that Americanslive in mostly wide open spaces when comparettto Europe and Japan. While decentralizationmay have occurred at the metropolitan scale, asettlement concentration is under way \ox theU.S. as a whoie.

Another 60 niillion residents could pourinto this relatively limited niegapolitan landarea by 2040. ln other words, America is on[rack to see significant density gains. This doesnot mean the end of suburbia, or even large-lotsubdivisions at the metropolitan fringe. But itdoes hint that more people will locate in alreadybuilt-up places.

This is not a new trend. Just over a century ago,the U.S. officially closed itsoriginal settlementfrontier. By the 1920s, over half the populationlived in urban areas. The 2000 census foundthat over half the nations land fell in what itawkwardly labeled "core-ba.sed statistical areas"(metropolitan and micropolitan areas). Theemergence of megas continues this pattern. By2040, two of every three Americans will live in20 mcgapolitan areas, or just 10 megaregions.

Megapolitan areas represent an even greaterconcentration ofthe nation's wealth and pro-ductive capacity. I h e 10 most affluent majormetropolitan areas tie in megas, as do most ofthe nation's busiest air and sea ports. The megasarc the key zones hy which the U.S. integratesinto the global economy. It is almost impos-sible to fiy overseas without first stopping in amegapolitan area.

Meg;is account for nearly 70 percent of U.S.gross domestic product. Within their space liethe nation's leading office markets and its high-tech heartlands, including Bostons Route 128,the Bay Area's Silicon Valley, Northern VirginiasDulles Toll Road, and Austin's Silicon Prairie.And thf megapoiitan economic dominanceshould only intensify by 2040.

Sun Belt \^. Frost BellWhile megapolitans as awholewiil boom, some

10 Planning January 2007

VC'ave of the future? At Victoria tuircWns, Oeingbuilt in Rancho Cucamonga, California,

attached housing is part ofthe plan. Above:

interior ofthe Lewis Family Playhouse

atVictoria Gardens Cultural Center.

The Santiago Street Lofts (above and right) in Santa Ana, California, is atransit-oriented redevelopment project involving 20 buildings. Each contains a

retail/ office ground floor and a two-story residence above.

Megapolitan Areas and Megaregions Anchor Metro(s)NortheastNew EnglandMid-AtlanticChesapeake

Great LakesSteel CorridorOfiio ValleyMichigan CorridorLakefront

PiedmontCarolina PiedmontGeorgia Piedmont

FloridaFlorida CorridorTreasure Coast

Texas TriangleTexas GulfTexas CorridorGreater Metroplex

Front Range

Sun Corridor

CascadiaPuget SoundWillamette Valley

Northern CaliforniaSouthern California

Megapolitan TotalsUS Total

Boston/Providence

New York/Philadelphia

Washington/Bal imore/Richmond

Cleveland/Pittsburgh

Cincinnati/Columbus

Detroit

Chicago/Milwaukee

Ctiarlolte/Raleigh

Atlanta

Tampa/Orlando

Miami

Houston

San Antonio/Austin

Dallas-Ft Worth/Oklahoma City

Denver

Phoenix/Tucson

Seattle

Portland

Bay Area/Sacremento

Los Angeles/San Diego

Noie: Megaregions ats shown in bold. Anchor Metros rank in tlie top 50 US MBtmpolrtan AreasSnurts'. f^ffljffljiap Institute at Virginia Tech,US Bureau of the Census

2005 Population51,601,1188,276,11633,527.9059,797.097

34,267,1897,067,8965,344,0528,969,86112.885.380

13,953,7877,012,7696.941,018

13,823,1887,851,5255,971,663

18,187,7726,247.1703.965.0187,975,584

3,880,126

4,988,564

7,350,4384.106,9563.243,482

11,288,313

21,720,656

181,061,151296.410,404

individual ones may see more modest growth.Megas in the Northeast and Great Lakes willadd population at the slowest rate. However,some of diese places are already so big th;ueven slow growth will result in millions moreresidents. The Mid-Atlantic niegapolitan area,anchored by the converging New York andPhiladelphia metropolitan areas, could jumpfrom 34 million residents today to over 40 mil-Iton by 2040. lhe region should easily retain itsstatus as the nation's largest megapolitan area.By contrast, the Northeast's .southern section,or the Chesapeake megapolitan area, will seemuch faster growth, although it will LKUI IWOmillion fewer residents,

Overall, the lour megapolitan ateas thaicomprise the Great Lakes megaregion will havethe slowest growth over the next l̂ ew decades.However, only one megapolitan—the SteelCorridor running from Cleveland to Pitts-burgh—-will increase by less than 10 percentby 2040. The Obio Valley (atichored by Co-lumbus and Cincinnati) and Lakefront (withChicago as its center) are projected to almostmatch the national growth rate over tbe nextthree decades.

American Planning Associniiun

Megapolitan America - September 2006Casc«dia

NorthernCaiitornia

New Enj^andMegalopcAs

SouffienCalfornia

TwasCorrictof

TreasureCoast

Americans areclustering togetherinto super regions—Iind are likely tocontinue doing soas thepopuLitionincreases.

Bur the really big gains will come in the SunBell. The hiiihcst flyer of ail should he the SutiCA)rridor, home to the rapidly merging Phoe-nix atid Tucson metropolitan areas. The SunCorridor could actually double in populationby 2040.

Following the Sun Corridor are several otherSLUI Belt mcgnpoiitans that will add over 70prrccnt more people in the coming decades.I 1R' list includes the Front Range, anchoredby metropolitan Denver, both Florida mega-politans. and the Texas Corridor and GreaterMcgaplcx. Not far behind these booming megaswill be the Georgiaand Carolina Piedmont. It'siiutTesting to note that Sotithern California, thetjuiiitessential Sun Belt metropolis, is projectedto add residents at the same pace as the nationalt;rowih rate-—bitt no faster.

Tlir new ccnier pointIn 1 870, U.S. census director Francis Walkerinvented what he called thecenter-ot-popula-tion statistic to give Americans a vivid senseof how fast the West was being settled. Inthat year, the population center was in Ohio;in 1790, it was just outside Baltimore. In

2000, the U.S. center of population reachedsouthern Missouri, and by 2040 it should bein Oklahoma.

That means that by mid-century the centerof U.S. population will lie near the geographicmidpoint of the nation. The U.S. popula-tion will be evenly divided between East andWest.

One twist not anticipated by Francis Walkerand other 19th-century demographers is howfar south the center of population will driftby the middle ofthe 21st century. If the morenorthern balanced settlement pattern thatbegan in 1800 held steady to 2040, the centerof U.S. population could very well have woundup in Kansas, or near the geographic center ofthe Lower 48 states.

In the 1840s. the main U.S. settlement ptishwas north and west—reflecting a decade thatsaw the California gold rush, travel on theOregon Trail, and the acquisition of vast newsouthern lands after the Mexican-AmericanWar. A century later, Los Angeles, once a smalltown compared to San Francisco, emergedas the Wests dominant city, ln the secondhalf of the 20th century, some of the West

Coast growth boomeranged east and helpedto transform the sleepy cities of Las Vegasand Phoenix into mini L.A.s. The old Sotith,which declined after the Civil War, rose againafter World War II thanks to air conditioning,the interstate highways, and northern industriesseeking cheaper land and lahor.

I he Wests settlement wns expected in the19th century—even demanded under theprinciple of manifest destiny—but the rushsouthward is more recent. Population trendsbegun over 60 years ago will continue to drawthe center of U.S. population along ihe path ol"the now defunct U.S. Route 66. The MotherRoad, made famous by 1930s dust howl refugeesheading to C l̂alifornia, makes a heelinc from iheMidwest to the Southwest. Apparently, so willmany Americans.

Build out vs. sprawl ontAny discussion of megapolitans must takeaccount of land scarcity. Consider Florida'smegapolitan Treasure Coast. The Evergladeshave been so invaded by urban growth that thisarea can no longer push west.

Broward Cx)unty, whicli is part of the Treasure

I'ljnning January 2007

C^oast, has been one ofthe fastest growing areasin the U.S. ovet the past few decades. Countyofficials estimate that less than 10 percent of itsland area is available for future development,hi response, the county upzoned much oftheremaining open space. Broward expects its lastgreenfield subdivision to be built in the nextfew years. After thar, the county will becomeone large infill project.

The same is true throughout much of theTreasure Coast. Given that the region couldadd over 70 petcent more people by 2040, thereremains only one option—denser growth.Thisis already happening. Miami now has a forestofhigh-rise residences along its waterfront, andtowers are under construction in booming sub-tirbs like Sunrise and Coral Springs in westernBtoward County.

South Florida has significant re-serves of grayfield space in the formof old malls and warehouse districts.Civen the region's land constraints,new construction in this redevelopedspace will be much denser and couldinclude more mixed uses than prevail-ing patterns. By 2040, the TreasureCoast will be transformed into anurban archipelago, where new citiesarise atnong a sea of older low-risesubdivisions.

Denser development is already thenorm in Southern California. One ofthe more hody debated topics in recentdiscussions of sprawl is the finding diatIx3s Angeles has the highest populationdensi ty ofthe census's "urbanized areits"—exceed-ing even New York in this measure. San Diego, aregion now mergingwithLA, is not far behind.The reality is that Southern California is nearlyout of developable land.

The area called the Inland Empire—eastof coastal L.A.—^still booms with greenfieldgrowth, but even in this once wide open space,lot sizes have shrunk to postage stamps. Newprojects, such as Dos Lagos in the city of Co-rona, feature detached single-family houses onlots so small that driveways must be shared.At Victoria Gardens, a mixed use project inone ofthe last remainmg undeveloped patchesof l^ncho Cucamonga, attached residencesare common. In even more built-out OrangeCounty, there are now mixed use lofts in SantaAna, high rises near tbe entrance to Disneyland

inAnaheim, and transit-oriented development

in downtown Fullerton.

This development pattern is likely to continueas the Southern California megapolitan areasqueezes millions ofnew residents into the urbanspace that exists today. Southern California, oncethe poster child for sprawl, is being remade intoa vast quasi-urban complex that mixes densitiesand land uses in a way that resembles neithertraditional cities nor suburbs.

In contrast to these areas are places like theGreater Metroplex and the Carolina Piedmont,where growth potential is virtually unlimitedand greenfields could be developed al! die wayto mid-century. Will that happen?

We argue elsewhere in this issue that changing

market and demographic realities will greatly

Descriptions ExamplesMeiropolitan An'urbanized area" or "principal Pilisburgh, DenverStatistical cily" with at least 50,000 people plusArea surounding counties witfi a 25%

"Employmeni Interchange Measure" . J^^^^^H(EIM)in2000 J ^ ^ ^ l

Combired two or more adjacenl micro and Washington/Statistical metropolitan areas that have an EIM of Ballimore, Cleveland'Area a' least 15% in 2000 Akron

Megapolitan Two or more metropolitan areas witfi Sun Corridor (Phoenix/Area—Defined anchor principal cities between 50 and Tucson). Northernby Virginia Tech 200 miles apart that will have an EIM of Catifcrnia (Bay Area/Metropolitan 15% by 2O40 based on projectton Sacramento)Institute

Mega-Region Large, connected networks o! Piedmont. Texas ^Defined by FIPA metropolitan areas that maintain Triangleand Lincoln environmental, cultural, and functionalInstitute linkages J^^^^H

reduce the amount of exurban development inthe coming decades-—^ven in places where nobarriers to such growth exist. Still, some outwardmomentum could well remain, especially inplaces that can still easily accommodate suchgrowth.

The middle section ofthe Greater Metroplex,between Dallas and Otdahoma City, is one placewhere land availability and local tastes maycontinue to fuel exurban expansion. Of course,some places within this zone, such as north Dal-las, will not see the transformations that sweepdenser and more built-cut megapolitan areasalong the coasts. However, the once low-den-sity suburb oi Piano, Texas, already has densertransit-oriented development at its station onthe Dallas Area RapidTransit system.

As Piano remakes itself into a more mature

Glossary. Learn more aboutthe concept of megaregions—and about a similar concept, multicicy

regions—in Smart Growth in a Changing World, an upcoming book by APA's Planners Press

{edited by Jonathan Barnett).

suburb that promotes diverse housing and

shopping options, nearby exurbs such as Frisco

and McKinney eagerly cator to households still

seeking elbow room. In the Greater Metroplex,

where everything ts bigger, a regit)nal preference

for more space should keep adding new exurban

rings north of Dallas until development reaches

Oklahoma.

BryiHid (!•<• iiif^jis: hooiii miil InisiTwenty years ago, Planning ran a notable articleby Frankand Deborah Popper titled "The GreatPlains: From Dust to Dust" (December 1987),which chronicled that regions decades-longpopulation decline. The Poppers promoted theidea ofa "Buffalo Commons" that would shihthose parts ofthe plains suffering the sieqiest

population loss to a more sustainableeconomy based on buffalo ranchingand ecotounsm. The article sparkedconsiderable controversy, but much ofwhat the Poppers predicted has cometo pass.

A little noticed dimension ot ilicPoppers' analysis was the finding thaieven as the U.S. boomed overall, vastareas could face decline. In tact, muchof the American West beyond the GreatPlains still remains wide open. ln20()(),

,.iii USA Tfl^^TyrcportcdtbatneLirlyhalfdic

^ country west ot ttic lOOili mcriJianhad fewer than six residents per square

^ H mile— the statistic used to dctine the19th century settlement frontier. Mostof this space will probably remain fron-

tier in 2040, including patches of the Southwestbetween rhe megapolitans.

What will the nation look like wiih 400million people? Its metropolitan space will betransformed by denser development, but mostplaces beyond the megas will look the same asthey do today. The image ofa nation paved overfromcnast tocoast is taise. Ifanything, parts otthe Great Plains and northern Rockies could beeven less populated than they are now.

By mid-century, most Americans will stilltake comfort in the notion thai elbow roomremains in some remote corner ofthe nation,if not in their own backyards. The uiitinishcdbusiness of settling the remaining tronucrlands—the great national project of previousgencration.s—may serve as a giant release valvein the collective consciousness ot 21 st-centuryAmericans who never fully warm to the idea otbeing more built up than Old Europe.

Robcrc [.angand Arthur C. Nelson arc codi rectors ol thfMetropolitan Instiiuccat Virginia Tech in Alexjndrin.Virginia. They thank the Lincoln Insututc i»i LandPolicy for its support.