amNewYork - News 12 poll of NYC GOP primary likely voters

7/30/2019 amNewYork - News 12 poll of NYC GOP primary likely voters

1/19

Penn Schoen Berland 1

New York City Mayoral Election Republican PrimaryAugust 22-27, 2013

400 Likely Republican Primary Election Voters (MOE: +/- 4.9%)

Likelihood to VoteWhat are the chances of

you voting in the

September Republican

PRIMARY election? All Male Female

Under

50 50+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens

Staten

Island

Almost certain 86 86 86 77 91 88 83 89 87

Probably 14 14 14 23 9 12 17 11 13

50-50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Probably not 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Definitely not 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Don't know 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Direction of New York CityWould you say that

things in New York City

are generally headed in

the right direction, or are

things off on the wrong

track? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Right direction 38 40 36 47 32 53 39 39 21

Wrong track 52 52 51 46 55 39 53 51 64

Don't know/refused 10 8 13 7 12 8 8 10 15


2/19


Most Important IssueI am going to read you a

list of concerns that

some people in the city

have mentioned. Please

tell me which one youpersonally want the next

Mayor of New York City

to focus on in the next

few years: All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Crime and safety 22 24 20 19 24 27 19 22 18

The economy and jobs 18 20 17 19 18 23 19 15 17

Taxes and city fees 10 10 10 12 9 6 5 13 18

Public education 9 8 10 9 9 10 8 6 14

City government

spending and debt9 9 10 8 10 7 10 14 7

Affordable housing for

all income groups8 8 8 8 8 12 10 7 2

Cost of living 5 3 6 7 4 2 7 6 3

Traffic and congestion 4 3 4 6 2 5 4 1 9

Condition of city

streets and roads3 5 1 5 3 2 4 5 2

Income inequality 2 3 2 3 2 0 4 2 2

City services like

sewers and garbagecollection

1 1 2 2 1 0 2 3 1

Other 5 4 6 3 7 5 7 4 7

Don't know 2 2 2 0 3 1 0 2 2


3/19


Mayoral BallotIf the September 2013

Republican Primary for New

York City Mayor were held

tomorrow and the candidates

were: ## RANDOMIZE THENAMES ## Joe Lhota, John

Catsimatidis AND George

McDonald for whom would

you vote or are you

undecided?

[IF UNDECIDED:] Well,

toward which candidate do

you lean?

[IF CANDIDATE:] Would you

say you support that

candidate strongly or not

strongly? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Lhota 50 53 48 46 53 66 50 42 53

Catsimatidis 28 27 29 27 28 18 27 33 30

McDonald 5 5 4 4 5 5 8 5 0

Undecided 15 11 18 20 11 11 13 15 15

Other 2 3 1 2 2 0 3 3 1

Refused 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0


4/19


Mayoral Ballot: Complete

Breakdown All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Lhota strong 31 29 33 21 37 34 36 26 32

Lhota not strong 11 15 7 15 8 19 8 8 12

undecided lean Lhota 9 9 8 10 8 13 6 8 9

Catsimatidis strong 17 19 15 15 18 9 14 23 16

Catsimatidis not strong 7 6 8 8 7 6 10 8 7

undecided lean

Catsimatidis4 1 6 4 3 3 4 2 7

McDonald strong 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 1 0

McDonald not strong 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0

undecided lean

McDonald2 3 2 2 3 0 5 3 0

Undecided 15 11 18 20 11 11 13 15 15

Other 2 3 1 2 2 0 3 3 1

Refused 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0

Mayoral Ballot Based on the

Issues All

Crime and Safety Top

Issue

Economy and Jobs

Top Issue

Lhota 50 54 50

Catsimatidis 28 34 25

McDonald 5 4 8

Undecided 15 8 14

Other 2 0 0

Refused 0 0 2


5/19


IF SUPPORT A CANDIDATE:

Are you supporting this

candidate mainly because: All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

You think the candidate

can get things done23 23 23 16 27 15 28 24 24

You like the candidates

ideas and proposals22 20 25 25 21 17 22 23 27

There is no better

alternative21 24 18 24 19 19 18 20 25


experience20 18 22 20 20 26 15 22 15

The candidate represents

change7 7 7 9 6 9 13 2 5

You like the candidatespersonality

3 4 1 4 2 3 1 4 2

Don't know 5 4 5 2 6 10 4 4 4


Are you supporting this

candidate mainly because: All

Lhota

supporters

Catsimatidis

supporters

You think the candidate

can get things done23 25 19

You like the candidatesideas and proposals

22 14 38

There is no better

alternative21 22 18


experience20 27 10

The candidate represents

change7 5 9


personality

3 3 3

Don't know VOL 5 5 4


6/19


Mayoral Ballot Based

Reasons to Support a

Candidate. All

Candidate

can get

Things Done

Like Ideas

and

Proposals

No Better

Alternative

Candidates

Experience

Lhota 50 66 38 64 83

Catsimatidis 28 27 57 30 16

McDonald 5 7 5 7 1


And is this candidate your

original choice for the

Republican nominee for

Mayor, or have you changed

your mind over the course of

the primary campaign? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Original choice 73 71 74 76 71 61 76 75 73Changed my mind 22 25 19 21 22 28 18 22 26

Don't know 6 4 7 3 7 12 6 3 1

IF CHANGE MIND

Which of the candidates did

you support before changing

your mind? All Male Female Under 50 50+

John Catsimatidis 34 35 34 42 30

Joe Lhota 27 27 27 38 21George McDonald 1 2 0 0 1

None was UNDECIDED 24 22 26 9 31

Other 11 13 8 11 11

Don't know 3 2 6 0 5


7/19


Just your best guess, who do

you think will win the

Republican NOMINATION for

New York City Mayor? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Joe Lhota 50 51 48 49 50 62 46 43 55

John Catsimatidis 24 24 25 23 25 17 22 30 26George McDonald 4 5 3 5 3 3 7 3 3

Other 4 4 4 3 5 5 5 5 1

Don't know 18 16 20 20 17 14 20 18 15

Just your best guess, who do

you think will win the

Republican NOMINATION for

New York City Mayor? All

Lhota

supporters

Catsimatidis

supporters

Joe Lhota 50 70 28

John Catsimatidis 24 9 58George McDonald 4 2 0

Other 4 2 7


Regardless of who you may

support for mayor, which

Republican candidate would

you trust to do a better job

leading the city through a

natural disaster likeHurricane Sandy or a terrorist

attack? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Joe Lhota 48 51 46 48 49 58 50 45 49

John Catsimatidis 22 22 21 20 23 13 20 31 15

George McDonald 3 2 4 3 3 5 5 2 0

Other 5 3 7 5 5 2 5 6 4

None 3 3 2 3 3 1 2 3 8



8/19


Regardless of who you may

support for mayor, which

Republican candidate would

you trust to do a better job

leading the city through a

natural disaster likeHurricane Sandy or a terrorist

attack? All

Lhota

supporters

Catsimatidis

supporters

Joe Lhota 48 82 12

John Catsimatidis 22 3 69

George McDonald 3 1 0

Other 5 3 2

None VOL 3 1 4

Don't know/refused VOL 19 10 14

And if your preferredcandidate were to lose the

Republican nomination, how

likely would you be to

consider voting for a

Democratic, Independent, or

third-party candidate in the

November general election

for Mayor? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Very likely 22 17 27 22 22 26 24 19 15

Somewhat likely 24 26 23 34 19 26 17 27 22

Not very likely 14 19 9 16 13 7 17 14 20

Not at all likely 33 33 34 24 39 33 37 31 39

Don't know 6 5 7 4 7 8 6 8 4

And if your preferred candidate

were to lose the Republican

nomination, how likely would you

be to consider voting for a

Democratic, Independent, or third-

party candidate in the November

general election for Mayor? All

Lhota

supporters

Catsimatidis

supporters

Very likely 22 19 18

Somewhat likely 24 25 19

Not very likely 14 16 11

Not at all likely 33 35 44



9/19


Candidate TraitsOn a scale from ZERO to

TEN, how important it is to

have a mayor whoShowing % of respondents who

ranked trait as TEN (Extremely

Important) All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Is honest and trustworthy 82 76 86 76 85 74 83 78 90

Will be tough on crime and

improve public safety74 67 81 70 76 62 73 79 77

Is a problem solver 72 69 74 75 70 58 68 82 79

Will manage the city

budget effectively70 70 70 73 68 52 72 69 77

Cares about people likeyou

70 62 77 72 69 51 72 80 71

Will prioritize jobs and the

economy61 58 64 65 59 34 68 71 59

Will fight for the middle

class60 56 65 60 61 32 57 78 63

Will focus on each of the

five boroughs equally58 57 59 57 58 41 56 54 69

Will make New York City

more affordable58 54 62 56 59 51 63 58 60

Has strong family values 57 51 63 52 60 30 52 62 70

Will prioritize education

and good public schools47 46 49 48 47 35 44 46 62

Shares your values 44 45 42 40 46 32 50 35 50

Will improve city traffic and

transportation issues38 41 35 40 36 17 32 39 55

Has served in the City

Government29 21 37 33 27 28 22 32 33

Will end the citys STOP-

AND-FRISK program 18 21 15 12 22 24 8 17 23

Will make the rich pay

higher taxes15 15 15 9 18 10 11 18 12


10/19


On a scale from ZERO to TEN,

how important it is to have a

mayor who

Showing % of respondents who

ranked trait as TEN (Extremely

Important) All Lhota Supporters

Catsimatidis

Supporters

Is honest and trustworthy 82 81 87

Will be tough on crime and

improve public safety74 71 85

Is a problem solver 72 67 79

Will manage the city budget

effectively70 73 58

Cares about people like you 70 65 73

Will prioritize jobs and the

economy

61 56 62

Will fight for the middle class 60 53 67

Will focus on each of the five

boroughs equally58 51 58

Will make New York City more

affordable58 53 58

Has strong family values 57 50 60

Will prioritize education and

good public schools47 43 46

Shares your values 44 37 47Will improve city traffic and

transportation issues38 29 36

Has served in the City

Government29 28 19

Will end the citys STOP-AND-

FRISK program18 19 14

Will make the rich pay higher

taxes15 10 14


11/19


Leader Favorability

Leader Favorability:

Summary

Showing % Favorable/

%Unfavorable All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Joe Lhota 63/11 64/13 61/9 52/13 69/10 81/7 60/9 56/9 69/14

Michael Bloomberg 59/38 51/47 67/30 49/48 65/32 75/24 60/38 57/41 47/49

John Catsimatidis 53/18 53/20 52/15 48/17 56/18 53/27 50/12 55/17 56/16

George McDonald 17/9 19/9 16/8 21/7 15/9 29/8 17/7 18/8 6/8

Individual FavorabilityMichael Bloomberg

Favorability All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Very favorable 27 22 32 20 32 43 32 24 11

Somewhat favorable 32 28 35 29 34 31 28 33 35

Somewhat unfavorable 14 17 11 16 12 10 11 15 20

Very unfavorable 24 30 19 31 20 14 26 26 28

No opinion/Don't know 3 2 3 4 2 1 1 2 5

Never heard of the

person0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0

Michael Bloomberg Favorability All Lhota Supporters

Catsimatidis

Supporters

Very favorable 27 26 27

Somewhat favorable 32 33 30

Somewhat unfavorable 14 17 13

Very unfavorable 24 22 28No opinion/Don't know VOL 3 2 2

Never heard of the person 0 0 0


12/19


Joe Lhota Favorability All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Very favorable 32 30 35 22 39 45 29 28 37





Never heard of the

person 7 8 7 10 5 1 13 9 3

John Catsimatidis


Under


Staten

Island

Very favorable 20 22 18 12 24 19 22 17 22

Somewhat favorable 33 32 34 36 31 34 28 37 34Somewhat unfavorable 9 9 8 9 9 12 6 8 10



Never heard of the

person 9 8 10 12 7 7 14 7 7

George McDonald


Under


Staten

Island

Very favorable 4 4 4 3 4 9 2 4 1





Never heard of the

person 31 29 32 29 32 20 31 33 32


13/19


Mayor BloombergThinking in general, would

you say you strongly

approve, somewhat approve,

somewhat disapprove or

strongly disapprove of the

job Michael Bloomberg has

been doing as Mayor? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Strongly approve 26 22 30 19 30 39 26 20 21

Somewhat approve 40 39 41 39 41 37 36 48 35

Somewhat disapprove 14 15 13 16 12 10 18 11 17

Strongly disapprove 17 22 12 23 13 11 17 19 20

Don't know 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 7

TOTAL APPROVE 66 61 71 58 71 76 62 68 56

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 31 37 25 39 25 21 35 30 37

Overall, do you want the next

mayor of New York to

generally continue the

policies of Mayor Bloomberg

OR do you think it is time for

a change?

All Male FemaleUnder

5050+ Manhattan Brooklyn Queens

Staten

Island

Continue the Bloomberg

policies38 37 39 33 41 50 37 39 27

Time for a change 56 57 55 57 55 40 61 55 66



14/19


Now let me read you some

specific policies that were

passed during Michael

Bloombergs time as mayor.

For each one, please tell me

whether you think it is an

excellent, good, just fair, or

poor policy for the city.

Showing % Excellent/Good vs.

% Fair/Poor All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Banning smoking in public

places67/30 64/33 71/28 71/26 65/33 59/41 75/25 75/22 56/35

Implementing the stop-

and-frisk program61/34 56/39 66/28 58/34 63/33 64/33 56/42 61/32 71/25

Expanding the cityaffordable housing plan 50/43 46/46 55/39 48/44 52/42 59/34 58/42 39/54 36/46

The mayor taking direct

control over public

education

49/49 53/46 45/51 47/51 50/47 50/44 52/44 52/46 42/58

Ending the policy of

overnight jail stay for

those arrested with small

amounts of marijuana

43/49 45/50 41/49 53/41 37/54 44/50 39/50 43/54 36/49

Adding bike lanesthroughout the city

35/63 34/64 35/62 38/61 33/64 28/68 37/62 41/58 28/67

Trying to ban the sale of

sweetened drinks larger

than 16 ounces

20/79 12/87 27/72 21/77 19/80 28/70 20/80 20/80 14/83


15/19


Demographics

Gender All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Male 49 100 0 55 45 46 47 50 51

Female 51 0 100 45 55 54 53 50 49

Borough All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Manhattan 18 17 19 14 21 100 0 0 0

Bronx 8 9 7 7 9 0 0 0 0

Brooklyn 25 24 26 28 23 0 100 0 0

Queens 31 31 31 31 31 0 0 100 0

Staten Island 18 19 17 21 16 0 0 0 100

Age All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

18-29 10 13 6 26 0 5 16 8 11

30-39 9 10 7 23 0 5 7 13 5

40-49 19 19 20 51 0 19 19 16 27

50-64 27 29 24 0 43 32 25 28 20

65+ 36 29 42 0 57 39 33 34 37

And do you consideryourself very liberal,

somewhat liberal,

moderate, somewhat

conservative, or very

conservative? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Very liberal 3 3 4 3 4 8 4 0 2

Somewhat liberal 6 5 6 1 8 7 3 9 2

Moderate 24 24 24 31 20 33 19 24 23

Somewhat

conservative

39 41 38 42 38 31 43 41 44

Very conservative 25 25 26 21 28 14 30 26 27

Don't know 2 2 2 1 2 7 0 0 3


16/19


In the November

2009 election for

New York mayor, did

you vote for: All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Michael

Bloomberg

67 60 74 57 73 72 66 68 59

Bill Thompson 15 19 10 20 11 8 14 14 24

Other 4 5 3 5 4 9 1 4 3

Did not vote 10 12 8 14 7 4 14 11 9

Don't know/

refused4 3 5 3 5 7 4 3 4

Are you or anyone in

your household a

member of a labor

union? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Yes 28 27 29 36 23 17 18 31 47

No 71 73 70 64 76 82 82 69 52

Don't know 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1

What is the highest

level of school you

have completed or

the highest degree

you have received? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

1-11 Grade 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 2 4High school

diploma or the

equivalent 16 14 18 14 18 4 27 11 13

Some college 16 15 18 16 17 11 19 16 15

College graduate 36 36 36 37 35 42 28 43 40

Graduate school 27 29 25 31 25 39 25 26 23

Technical school 1 1 2 0 2 0 0 2 4

Don't

know/refused 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1


17/19


Typically, how do

you get to work or

school? Do you walk,

ride a bike, take the

subway, take a bus,

take a taxi, or drive a

car? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Walk 14 12 15 21 9 18 24 8 10

Bike 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 4

Subway 33 34 31 36 31 43 43 25 19

Bus 17 11 23 15 19 34 15 13 13

Taxi 4 5 4 3 6 10 5 2 3

Drive a car 39 46 32 41 38 7 25 61 58

Don't know 17 12 21 7 22 14 14 16 18

Do you currently own

or rent your primary

residence? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Own 66 69 64 59 71 53 59 80 76

Rent 32 29 35 39 28 47 39 19 21

Don't know 2 2 1 3 1 0 2 1 3

Race: Are you of

Hispanic, Latino, or

Spanish-speaking

background?[IF NO]What is your

race white, black,

Asian, or something

else? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

White 74 75 72 75 73 75 69 75 90

Black/African-

American 7 4 9 4 9 10 8 6 0

Latino/Hispanic 12 14 10 14 11 11 15 10 3

Asian 3 2 3 4 2 0 1 7 0

Native American 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Pacific Islander 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0

Arab American 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other 3 2 4 2 4 3 5 0 2

Don't

know/Refused 2 2 2 2 2 0 1 2 5


18/19


What is your

religion? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Protestant 14 14 17 7 21 22 12 9 21

Catholic 48 45 52 49 48 28 38 57 68

Jewish 18 25 12 27 13 24 30 17 3

Methodist 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0

Baptist 1 1 1 0 2 0 2 0 0

Evangelical

(include Church of

God, Pentecostal,

7th Day Adventist)

0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1

Non-traditional

(include Christian

Science,

JehovahsWitness)

1 1 2 1 1 4 1 1 0

Mormon, Latter

Day Saints, LDS0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0

Muslim 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 0

Other 8 7 9 6 10 13 9 8 2

No religion 4 6 2 4 4 4 6 3 2

Don't

know/refused4 2 5 4 4 5 4 2 5


19/19


For statistical

purposes only, which

of the following

categories best

represents your

current total

HOUSEHOLD income

before taxes? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Less than $25,000 11 8 13 10 12 8 6 8 18

$25,000 to

$49,99919 22 16 16 21 19 29 14 15

$50,000 to

$99,99929 28 30 27 31 33 24 30 24

$100,000 to

$149,99912 13 12 16 10 11 14 18 8

$150,000 andmore

10 15 6 13 9 16 8 11 12


Are you, a family

member of yours, or

a close friend gay or

lesbian? All Male Female

Under


Staten

Island

Yes, myself 3 4 2 5 2 6 3 1 2

Yes, family

member

13 11 15 17 10 13 6 14 16

Yes, close friend 12 13 11 14 11 16 12 9 16

No 72 73 72 66 76 72 76 75 67

Don't know/

refused4 4 4 3 4 2 5 2 4

Documents

amNewYork - News 12 poll of NYC GOP primary likely voters