An Energy Vision for

the United States and China

E. Fenton Carey, Jr., Ph.D.

Captain, U.S Navy (Retired)

April 15-16, 2015

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Disclaimer

• This presentation does not represent the position of any government,

business, think tank, non-for-profit, and academic organization.

• It represents my energy vision for the United States and desire to start a

dialogue to develop a common vision with China.

• It is based on over 30 years of executive experience in the U.S. Departments

of Defense, Energy, and Transportation; NASA; and White House National

Science and Technology Council.

• It is a work in progress! Comments and suggestions are welcome!! Facts not

fiction please!!!

• All data used are available in published books, reports, and/or papers and on

the Internet.

Which Puzzle (Vision)Would You Buy?

No Picture and

Tampered with Box

Clear Pictures and

Unopened Boxes

We Cannot Live Without Energy

• Energy is the foundation of our economies, national security, and the

standard of living of our people and future generations. It enables us to:– Live our lives at home, at work, at play, and on the go.

– Move quickly and safely via air, land, sea, and space.

– Grow our food, process it, and transport it to a store near you, so you can buy it,

take it home, cook it, consume it, and dispose of it.

– Have heat, light, and power when and where needed.

– Produce and deliver goods, services, and materials to customers anywhere in the

world at any time.

– Link with the global economy.

– Deploy our militaries anywhere in the world at any time to protect our countries,

help preserve our freedom and that of others, and maintain freedom of the seas.

– Explore the universe and the unknowns of science.

• Without energy, we would not exist!!!

What is Our Energy Situation?

• The sun has been and will always be our primary energy source.

• Global energy consumption has increased as economies and populations

have grown; it is projected to continue to grow, most notably in developing

nations (e.g., China, India).

• Fossil fuels (e.g., coal, natural gas, petroleum) have become our major

energy sources; they are non-renewable – once used, they cannot be reused!

• Except for renewable energy sources (e.g., biomass, hydro, geothermal,

wind, solar) and reprocessed nuclear fuel, all other sources are finite and

eventually will be exhausted; increasing demand and consumption will only

result in more rapid depletion of the Earth’s supplies.

• Unless other high-specific energy sources emerge, shortages likely will

occur, prices likely will increase, people likely will have lower standards of

living, and/or conflict will result.

What is Our Energy Situation?

• Earth’s climate has changed since its beginning and will continue until its

demise; humans have had a small impact; nevertheless, we should minimize

our impact and be prepared to adapt to climate changes as they occur.

• Improvements in efficiency have minimized energy losses, saved energy,

and improved the delivery and use of energy; but we must remember that

there are limits governed by the Laws of Thermodynamics.

• Energy infrastructure delivers energy from its sources to its users and uses;

the U.S. infrastructure is massive, governed by numerous government

agencies, operated by numerous public and private sector companies, and

takes decades and is costly to change.

• Except for the extraction of fossil fuels, energy, including nuclear power, is

very safe given its ubiquitous generation, transmission, use, and disposal.

• Energy systems are vulnerable to accidents, natural disasters, and hostile

acts; they are becoming more vulnerable with the increasing cyber and

terrorist threats.

Where are We Headed?

• Given our energy situation, sounds like we are buying the puzzle on the left.

• We have many inter-related and complex energy issues, but we have no

picture (i.e., vision) of what we are trying to achieve.

• We tend to focus on how we are going to get “there” without first knowing

where “there” is.

• Let us buy the puzzle on the right, define “there” first, and then figure out

how best to get “there”!

• Lacking a vision, – Energy consumption likely will continue to grow,

– Energy likely will continue to have a negative impact on our environment,

– We likely will remain dependent on foreign energy, and

– Our vulnerability to energy disruptions likely will continue to increase.

• This does not make sense today and for our future generations!

• We need an energy vision for the 21st century!!!

Contend that

the United States and China

• Have common energy:– Needs

– Challenges

– Opportunities

• Need to work together to:– Develop a common energy vision, strategy, and implementation plan

– Pursue common energy solutions

– Provide the energy benefits to all nations!

Common Energy Needs

• China has a very long energy history; it was the first to use coal (2000 BC),

develop natural gas (200 BC), and refine petroleum (100 AD).

• Except for a brief period between the mid-1950s and end of the 1970s,

China’s energy consumption has increased steadily to sustain its economic

development and population growth. It continues to this day.

• Energy consumption in the United States has increased steadily since its

founding in 1776 except during the Great Depression (1930s).

• Since the Industrial Revolution (~1800s), the predominant energy sources of

both nations have been fossil fuels – coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

• Nuclear energy was added to this mix in the mid-1950s.

• History shows that sustained economic development and population growth

has required increased energy consumption for transportation; commercial,

residential, and industrial applications; and electricity power generation.

• Our demand for energy likely will continue to grow in the future!

Common Energy Challenges

• Supply and Demand– Diminishing global supplies of fossil fuels (e.g., coal and hydrocarbons) and natural resources

(e.g., Indium, Gallium, Arsenic, Selenium)

– Increasing global energy demand from all users and uses, especially from developing nations

• Climate Change– Growing concern about the environmental impact of energy use, especially the release of

greenhouse gas from the burning of fossil fuels

• Energy Efficiency– Increasing efficiency and decreasing energy losses without violating the Laws of

Thermodynamics

• Infrastructure– Ensuring that the most critical national infrastructure – energy – is reliable and resilient,

accessible and affordable, clean and quiet, efficient and effective, and safe and secure

• Safety and Security– Preventing deaths and injuries due to energy extraction, production, distribution, use, and

disposal

– Developing a system that does not depend on foreign energy

– Providing minimum essential services even if damaged by accidents, natural disasters, and

hostile acts

China – United States

Comparison in 2010

China

• 1.357 billion people (#1)

• 3,705,386 square miles

• GDP ~9.24 trillion dollars (#2)

• Cars per capita – ~.037

• Total energy consumption (#1)– Oil – 9 million barrels per day (#2)

– Coal – 73.8 Quads (#1)

– Natural gas – 3.3 trillion cubic feet

• Greenhouse gas emissions – ~7.885

metric tons of CO2 (#1)

United States

• 347 million people (#3)

• 3,718,691 square miles

• GDP ~16.77 trillion dollars (#1)

• Cars per capita – ~.828

• Total energy consumption (#2)– Oil – 19 million barrels per day (#1)

– Coal – 21.1 Quads

– Natural gas – 23.8 trillion cubic feet

(#1)

• Greenhouse gas emissions – ~5.64

metric tons of CO2 (#2)

Common Energy Opportunities

• Ubiquitous use of information and nano technologies to increase energy

efficiency in all user sectors and dramatically reduce energy demand

• Introduction of “virtual transportation” where ever possible

• Energy-efficient and environmentally friendly technologies (e.g., light

emitting diodes (LEDs))

• Renewable fuels (e.g., biofuels, solar, wind) and reprocessed nuclear fuels

• Broader use of hydro-fracking and horizontal drilling techniques for

extraction of natural gas and shale oil

• Advanced energy storage and distribution technologies (e.g., fuel cells)

• A distributed energy system with solar on buildings, small modular

nuclear reactors for bulk power, and “smart” tamper-proof power grids

for increased efficiency and security

• Next-generation nuclear reactors and, in the future, nuclear fusion, if

feasible

Teleportation by 3D Printing?

3D Air Conditioner by Haier

Sold at Appliance World Expo 2015, Shanghai, China

A New Approach

• United States has the ability, capability, and capacity to meet its energy needs

and solve its energy challenges.

• But, it needs a new approach to do so.

• China has similar needs, challenges, and opportunities!

• Both nations – the economic powers of the 21st century – need a new approach– Leadership

– Vision

– Innovation

– Systems approach

– Commitment

Leadership

• Leadership is of the utmost urgency and importance.

• Energy is a national and international issue that requires the direct interest

and involvement of– The President of the United States and the U.S. Congress, and

– The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Standing

Committee, and Politburo.

• Since our economies, national security, and standard of living of our people

and future generations depend on it, our leaders need to make energy their

number one priority.

• Our leaders need a permanent Energy Dialogue Leadership Group – a

“Council of Elders” – made up of former leaders from our respective

governments, industries, national academies, and academic institutions to

advise them on energy-related issues on a regular basis.

Vision

• Both the United States and China need an energy vision for the 21st century.

• As Lewis Carroll, a famous British author, once said, “If you do not know

where you are going, any road will get you ‘there’.”

• All Americans and Chinese deserve to know where their countries are going

relative to energy, how they will benefit, and how and when they will realize

the benefits.

• In the United States, everyone tends to have a different perspective on energy.– As a result, there is no simple, clear, concise, and understandable energy vision.

– Its energy policies, priorities, and investments tend to change from one political

administration to the next.

– Given that it takes decades to make major changes to the nation’s energy system

and since there is no sustained commitment, there is little progress made to ensure

its future energy needs are met and challenges solved.

• China has the basis for an energy vision based on a 2007 Chinese National

Academy of Sciences report An Outline of Sustainable Development in China.

Innovation

• It takes decades to get new energy sources, applications, approaches,

processes, and uses into the system and market place.

• This is unacceptable given the importance of energy to our nations.

• Our leaders need to create an environment that fosters innovation in both the

private and public sectors and enables new and better technologies and

concepts to get into practice cheaper and faster!

• They need to pursue policies that will – Ensure that we have a skilled work force in the future

– Encourage open, fair, and competitive global markets

– Eliminate the legal and regulatory legal barriers to innovation

– Enable breakthrough capabilities and accelerate their deployment

– Encourage capital formation to spur innovation

Systems Approach

• Our energy systems are large, complex, and made up of many different

developers, producers, providers, regulators, and consumers.

• The digital/information age has made them more efficient but, at the same

time, has made them more complex and susceptible to disruption.

• We need to consider the energy “system” as a system from the sources to users

and uses and build in the necessary security and safeguards from the outset.

• We need an energy system architecture that is tightly coupled to all of our other

infrastructures (e.g., homeland security, telecommunications, transportation).

• The architecture should define an energy system that can:– Adapt to changing national and international policies, priorities, and situations;

– Accommodate new energy sources, users, and uses;

– Take advantage of breakthroughs in energy technologies and concepts; and

– Provide minimum essential services, even if damaged by accidents, natural

disasters, and/or hostile acts.

Commitment

• Leadership, vision, innovation, and systems approach are necessary but are

not sufficient to ensure that our future energy needs are met and challenges

solved.

• There must be a sustained commitment, especially since it will take decades

to achieve.

• This is particularly difficult in a democracy in which– There are often major changes in government policies, practices, priorities,

processes, and investments from administration to administration; and

– There may not be a compelling threat and/or crisis to motivate action and

change and to sustain it!

• Political leadership and a sustained commitment are required to achieve an

energy vision, innovation, and systems solution.

• The Energy Dialogue Leadership Group would help to do this; it would:– Be experienced, knowledgeable, and wise;

– Have constancy of purpose across administrations; and

– Have direct access to our leaders when needed!

21st Century Energy Vision

An Integrated and Distributed System that Powers

Everyone and Everything, Everywhere, When Needed

At Home At Work

At Play On the Go

Energy Vision Attributes and Metrics

• Reliable and resilient• Provides minimum essential service even if damaged by accidents, natural

disasters, and/or hostile acts.

• Accessible and affordable• Enables everyone to have the energy to do what they want, when they want, and

where they want at competitive prices.

• Clean and quiet• Produces environmentally-friendly and sustainable energy.

• Efficient and effective• Minimizes per capita energy use and energy losses.

• Accommodates a mix of energy sources, users, and uses.

• Safe and secure• Has no fatalities and injuries due to energy exploration, development, processing,

distribution/transmission, use, disposal, and/or recycling.

• Does not depend on foreign sources of energy.

Potential Sustainability and Energy Goals

• Sustainability Goals for 2100* – Zero natural growth rate of the population

– Zero rate of energy and natural resource consumption

– Zero degeneration rate of the environment

• Related U.S. Energy goals for 2050– Reduce transportation use of petroleum by at least a third to offset the need for

imports from non-North American sources

– Improve electric power system efficiency (e.g., conversion, transmission,

distribution, storage, use) by at least twenty-five (25) percent to reduce energy

losses and demand

– Increase the use of natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy for electricity

generation by at least twenty (25) percent to reduce emissions of greenhouse

gases

* Based on goals from the Chinese Academy of Sciences 2007 report, An Outline of Sustainable Development in China.

United States Energy Flow in 2013

(in quadrillion Btu) with Efficiencies

21%

39%

32%

80%

65%

Focus of Energy Goals for 2050

1

2

3

What is the Urgency?

• Achieving the proposed vision is possible, but we need to start to act now.

• Incremental short-term and energy-specific efforts (e.g., hybrid vehicles,

wind, solar) though needed, will not solve our long-term problems.

• Unfortunately, humans usually need a threat/crisis to motivate them; once

they subside, humans often revert to past behavior, policies, and practices.

• We cannot wait until the end of the century to act when the supplies of fossil

fuels, such as petroleum, may all but be exhausted.

• We cannot bank on a “miracle” to solve our long-term energy needs; major

changes will take decades to make.

• We cannot proceed without the rest of the world involved because energy

consumption and its environmental impact are global in nature.

• Further delays will adversely impact our economies, our national security,

and the standard of living of our people and future generations.

• The real challenge is, “How do we address these issues in a coherent,

systemic, and sustained manner until they are resolved successfully?”

Are We on the Right Course?

Full Speed Ahead!

Or, Is it Time to Change Course?

Full Speed Ahead! Full Speed Astern!!

What Has Been Done?

• The United States and China have cooperated on environmental and clean

energy initiatives for over 30 years with early efforts focused on

establishing the basic framework for cooperation.

• In 2008, for example, the United States and China signed a Ten-Year

Framework on Energy and Environmental Cooperation under the Strategic

Economic Dialogue (SED) that was started by U.S. President George W.

Bush and China’s General Secretary Hu Jintao in September 2006.

• The Ten-Year Framework established goals for cooperation on clean

electricity, clean water, clean air, efficient transportation, and forest

conservation.

• The Framework resulted in the creation of the U.S. – China Clean Energy

Research Center in 2009.

• As of July 2014, the CERC had 75 projects in three areas – clean coal, clean

vehicles, and building energy efficiency – 58 of which were joint efforts.

What Next?

• The United States and China need to work together to:– Develop a common energy vision for the 21st Century,

– Enact policies and make investments to achieve it, and

– Lead a global effort to ensure all nations can enjoy the benefits too

• To do this, we need the direct interest and involvement of our nation’s leaders– The U.S. President and Congress, and

– The General Secretary of the CPC, the Standing Committee, and Politburo

• Our leaders should create an Energy Dialogue Leadership Group to:– Propose an Energy Vision for the United States and China Energy Vision for the

21st Century and a Sino-U.S. Energy Roadmap to 2050,

– Recommend energy solutions and opportunities for partnerships, and

– Report on progress to their respective leaders at least every six months.

• The Energy Dialogue Leadership Group would have the experience,

constancy of purpose, and access to our leaders to make the vision a reality!

As the Global Leaders of the 21st Century

• We need to work together to build an integrated and distributed energy

system that provides power to everyone and everything, everywhere, when

needed – at work, at home, at play, and on the go!

• Let us get “Off to the “RACES” to achieve the vision!– Reliable and resilient

– Accessible and affordable

– Clean and quiet

– Efficient and effective

– Safe and secure energy

• If we do, we will have:– A better understanding of each others’ energy needs and priorities,

– A constructive and productive relationship on energy, and

– Favorable policies and programs

to ensure that our common energy needs are met and challenges solved.

• Most importantly, we will demonstrate our global leadership for the benefit of

all nations and all people of the world.

To Deny a Pending Disaster

Will Not Prevent It!

So, Let us Define a Common Energy

Vision and Get Off to the RACES!

An Integrated and Distributed System that Powers

Everyone and Everything, Everywhere, When Needed

At Home At Work

At Play On the Go