An Introduction The Infrastructure Planning Support System

An Introduction: The Infrastructure Planning Support

System (IPSS)

August 2014

Xavier Espinet

Resilient Analytics

• Founded by faculty and researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder based on ten years of research and consulting in climate impact analysis

• Expertise in: • Engineering risk analysis • Climate science • Economics • Infrastructure planning • International relations and policy (developing regions)

• Our vision: “Enable every stakeholder to make informed and balanced decisions by understanding the vulnerability, impacts and adaptation options climate change imposes upon key infrastructure assets.”

2 Resilient Analytics

Experience

• 10 years of successful deployment • International, National, and Local projects

Resilient Analytics 3

Introduction


SITE-SPECIFIC Custom, detailed, using field data

GUIDELINES & FRAMEWORKS General pathway for thinking about vulnerability

IPSS Modeling Quantitative Engineering and Economic-Based Analysis of Climate Vulnerability

Approach: Questions:

• How does climate change affect my infrastructure?

• What are my actionable options?

• What is an appropriate decision?

• What are the broader implications?

Infrastructure

Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructure


Stressor

Temperature Precipitation Flooding Freeze-thaw

Roads Buildings Bridges Pipelines

Response

Degradation Rutting Cracking HVAC failure

Cost

Maintenance Rebuilding Repair Construction

IPSS objectively : • Projects additional maintenance and repair cost if being reactive

• Determines long-term benefits of adaptation strategies

• Supports robust decision-making

• Considers broader impacts of climate change

IPSSTM Methodology


ADAPT (“Resilient”) NO ADAPT (“Reactive”)

• Forward looking – use climate models

• Applies design-life climate change projections to construction design

• Incurs up-front costs to adapt infrastructure, avoiding life-cycle degradation

• “Business as usual”

• Current design standards are used to build new projects and rehabilitate existing projects

• Costs incurred from increased maintenance necessary to retain design life of original structure as degradations are incurred from increased climate stress

IPSS Tool Capabilities

Types of Infrastructure

Climate Scenarios

Variables Adaptation Strategies

Results & Analysis Output

• Roads

• Bridges

• Buildings

• Energy

• Rail*

• CMIP3

• CMIP5

• Local/ downscale

• Precipitation

• Temperature

• Freeze Thaw

• Flooding

• Humidity

• Wildfires*

• Urban flooding*

• No Adapt

• Full Adapt

• Partial Adaptation

• Vulnerability

• Adaptation

• Risk (regret, over/ under spending)

• Broader Impacts (social vulnerability)


* Models available late 2015

IPSS Outputs


1. Vulnerability Studies


• Highlight critical performance issues, damage threats and cost impacts

• Identify infrastructure components that need upgrading

• Project additional cost for transportation agencies

2. Adaptation Assessment


• Estimate Cost-Benefit analysis of adaptation strategies

• Produce a timeline of appropriate adaptation investments

3. Resilience Profile: Economic Risk


• “What if” - Regret Analysis over possible adaptation strategies

• Inclusion of deep uncertainty over impact assessments

• Robust Approach to support decision making

3. Resilience Profile: Social Impact


• Broader policy considerations of climate impacts

• Triple bottom line approach - Social, Environmental and Economics

• Evaluation of Social Vulnerability and Environmental Impacts

The IPSS tool provides:

• Vulnerability and adaptation assessment of critical infrastructure assets

• Quantitative, cost-based estimates for planning and decision making

• Robust, state-of-the-art risk assessments metrics

• Broader policy considerations

IPSS Summary


The IPSS tool answers:

• How does climate change affect my infrastructure?

• What are my actionable options?

• What is an appropriate decision?

• What are the broader implications?

IPSS Capability


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Thank You!

Xavier Espinet

Technical Lead [email protected]

http://resilient-analytics.com/

Resilient Analytics

Documents

An Introduction The Infrastructure Planning Support System