An update on Fermi’s famous question about ...

EXTRATERRESTRIALS:“Where Are They?”

Dr. Bruce Cordell

Today’s Path...

• What is Fermi’s Paradox anyway?

• How has Fermi’s Paradox traditionally been explained?

• What new data do we have that illuminates this question?

• What tentative conclusions are possible at this time?

Our Galaxy is 13 b.y. Old

Fermi’s Paradox• Our Galaxy is 13 billion years old • Plus, it is 100,000 light years across…

• Any advanced civilization could colonize the Galaxy in a few million years…

Therefore, ETs should be here…so...

“Where are they?”

Possible Types of Answers to Fermi’s Paradox

• They don’t exist

• They can’t contact us (comm or trans)

• They don’t care to contact us

• They are here.

Maybe...They don’t exist...

The Drake Equation

N=R*fs*fp*ne*fl*fi*fc*L

Does N=1 ?

Are There Other Planets?

As of 11/14/2008, 326 planets are known to exist outside our solar system!

No Earth-like Planets Are Knownhttp://www.jtwinc.com/Extrasolar/mainframes.html

A Unusual Solar System!

The Secret to Earth...

Earth’s Big Brother

Are Earth-like Environments Rare?

• Star Lifetime • Distance/Spin/

Oceans• Mass/Atmos

Recycling• Circular Orbits• Large Satellite

• Jupiter Comet Filter

• Solar (2%+) Metallicity

• Galaxy Orbit (a few %)

• Magnetic Field/Atmos

Earth’s Climatic Anchor

Do They All Die Young?

• Cosmic Dust Clouds

• Supernovas

• Small Black Holes

• Environmental Crises

• Machine Intelligence

• Others...

Maybe...Contact is Impossible...

• They Can’t Find Us?Von Neumann Machines

• They Can’t Get Here?V= 0.001c

• They Can’t Communicate? Arecibo and beams

Maybe…They’re Just Not Interested...

• We are subjects of an experiment?

• We are being monitored and controlled?

• They are not gregarious?

• We’re considered dangerous?

We cannot judge their motivations.

Maybe…They’re Here…Are Some UFOs ET Spacecrafts?

• Extraordinary unidentified sightings do exist by reliable observers

• Physical evidence includes photos and environmental effects

• Influentials add authenticity (e.g. Mitchell)

• Government interest and cover-ups are documented

“UFOs are real.” Apollo Astronaut

Working Hypotheses

• Relativistic Spacecraft – Sagan (1963)

• VNMs – Von Neumann (1948)

• Parallel Universes – Haisch et al. (2005)

• Deceptions – Vallee (1979)

• Transcensions – Smart (2002)

A UFO Sightings SamplerWhatever they are, UFOs do exist.

• Best self-admitted Gov’t CoverUp - Roswell, NM (1947)

• Best multi-witness CE-III - Fr. Gill, Papua New Guinea (1959)

• Best Abduction - Travis Walton, AZ

• Best FOIA Jet Incident - Tehran, Iran (1976)

• Best Photo -McMinneville,OR

• Best Public Sighting- Washington National Airport (1952)

• Best UFO Survey of Astronomers - Sturrock

The Astronomical Observations...

• There are no known electromagnetic signals from ETs

• There are no known Dyson Spheres• There is no known observational evidence for ET

spacecraft in the Galaxy• There are no known “polluted” stellar spectra• There are no known Earth-like planets• There is no convincing evidence for ET artifacts on

other planets

Two Preliminary Observations

• Everything we see in the Galaxy is consistent with a non-ET model… Therefore,

ETs may not exist now.• A wealth of unidentified sightings by

reliable witnesses exists that is supported by impressive evidence...Therefore,

UFOs may exist now.

2 Speculative Models Currently Consistent with Observations

1. A Blast From the Past

UFOs might be Von Neumann Machines of ancient ET civilizations that are no longer present

2. Messengers of Deception

UFOs might be a human-created Control System designed to reduce global conflicts by simulating an ET threat

A Few Thoughts…

• The Future is where we’ll be spending the rest of lives so it makes sense to know something about it

• Space is a major component of student interest in the future, and the question of intelligent ET life is a key focus

• Current astrophysical theory and observations are increasingly consistent with the concept of ETs and ET visits

• Space will play an increasingly prominent role in the near future because it is forecast that “the decade from 2015 to 2025 will be the analog of the 1960s…” Cordell, B. “21st Century Waves: Forecasting Technology Booms and Human Expansion into the Cosmos” To appear in Futures Research Quarterly, 2006.