Analisis FLUJO PROYECTO

7/25/2019 Analisis FLUJO PROYECTO

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UNIVERSIDAD EANMAESTRIA EN GERENCIA DE PR

FORMULACIN DE PROYE

TABLA DE FACTORES ECON

DIAS AOINFLACINTASA EXPECTATIVATASA CRDITOTASA REINVERSINTASA IMPUESTOSPROBABILIDAD 1-AUGEPROBABILIDAD 2-NORMALPROBABILIDAD 3-RECESINVENTAS A CRDITODESCUENTO EN VENTASVENTAS (UNIDADES AO1)VENTAS (UNIDADES AO2)VENTAS (UNIDADES AO3)VENTAS (UNIDADES AO4)VENTAS (UNIDADES AO)VENTAS (UNIDADES AO!)VENTAS (PRECIOS AO 1)VENTAS (PRECIOS AO 2)VENTAS (PRECIOS AO 3)VENTAS (PRECIOS AO 4)VENTAS (PRECIOS AO )VENTAS (PRECIOS AO !)

INCREMENTO ANUAL COSTOSINCREMENTO ANUAL GASTOSINCREMENTO SALARIOSINVENTARIOS PT (DIAS)INVENTARIOS PP (DIAS)INVENTARIOS MP (DIAS)ROTACIN CARTERA (D"AS)PAGO PROVEEDORES (D"AS)PROVISIN DEUDAS MALAS


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OYECTOSTOS

MICOS

3!#$%

2%24%1#%33%2#%#%3#%2#%

2%1##%

%%$%$%$%

1##%1#%1#%1#%1#%1#%

$%$%$%

41#3#43#3%


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UNIVERSIDAD EAN

MAESTRIA EN GERENCIA PROYECTOSFORMULACION DE PROYECTOS - CAPITULO FINANCIERO

PROFESOR: JORGE LUIS SEGURA

el da 31 de diciembre de 2009, iniciando operaciones en enero de 2010.

Los accionistas de la empresa analizan diferentes alternativas de apalancamiento financiero

como es el caso de ampliar aportes de capital, tomar crditos en diferentes modalidades,

o manejar leasing entre otros.

Seleccione la alternativa de apalancamiento: Leasing

Las proyecciones a a!os de la n"eva empresa son el res"ltado del an#lisis de mercado y de los

post"lados $"e en matera econ%mica y financiera manejan los accionistas del ente econ%mico.

&s las cosas los se!ores socios abren operaciones con el sig"iente balance inicial'

COMERCIALIZADORA EL CHIRCAL LTDA

BALANCE INICIAL

2009ACTIVO

CORRIENTECaja y Ba!"# ( ),000,000

TOTAL ACTIVO CORRIENTE ( 0 ( 0 ( ),000,000

FIJOT$%%$"# ( 2),000,000E&'('!'"# ( 10),000,000Ma)*'a%'a Y E)*'+"# ( 10,000,000M*$,$# y E#$%$# ( 1),000,000

TOTAL ACTIVO FIJO ( 0 ( 0 ( 30),000,000

TOTAL ACTIVO . 0 . 0 . /010001000

PASIVOCORRIENTE

*L +-+&L L/&es "na empresa ind"strial $"e elabora prod"ctos para la constr"cci%n $"e se constit"yeTRABA&O FINAL


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O,'a!'"$# Ba!a%'a#P%"3$$&"%$#I4+*$#5" R$5a +"% Paa%

TOTAL PASIVO CORRIENTE ( 0 ( 0 ( 0

LARGO PLAZOC$#a56a#

TOTAL PASIVO LARGO PLAZO ( 0 ( 0 ( 0

TOTAL PASIVO . 0 . 0 . -

PATRIMONIOCa+'5a S"!'a ( 310,000,000R$#$%3a L$a ( 0U5''&a&$# R$5$'&a# ( 0U5''&a&$# &$ Ej$%!'!'" ( 0

TOTAL PATRIMONIO . 0 . 0 . /010001000

PASIVO 7 PATRIMONIO . 0 . 0 . /010001000

BASES PARA LAS PROYECCIONES :

V$5a#:

Las entas para el primer a!o son las sig"ientes'

U'&a&$# P%$!'" TOTAL

La&%'" 22),000 ( 2,0)0 ( 1,2)0,000La&%'" 2 31),000 ( 2,090 ( ),3)0,000

TOTAL ( 1,119,00,000

sobre las ventas a los distrib"idores.

I3$5a%'" &$ P%"&*!5" T$%4'a&":

4or motivos de c"mplimiento, se considerara el tener "n inventario de prod"cto terminado

I3$5a%'" &$ P%"&*!5"# $ P%"!$#":

4ara el seg"ndo y tercer a!o, se espera "n a"mento en "nidades del )5

para los a!os c"arto, $"into y se6to se espera "n incremento en "nidades de5.

e ig"al forma, se prev $"e los precios a"mentaran al 105an"al y, adem#s, se proyecta vender

"n 205 a travs de los distrib"idores, otorgando "n plazo de ) das. 4or tal motivo se 7ara "na

provisi%n para de"das malas por el 35de las ventas a crdito, y se consideraran desc"entos del 25

e$"ivalente a )das para evitar la prdida de posibles ventas.


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Ma5$%'a# P%'4a#:

Los estimativos 7ec7os indican $"e las 8aterias 4rimas "tilizadas para cada "nidad de

prod"cto y s" costo respectivo es de'

Ma5$%'a# P%'4a# C"#5" U'5a%'"

La&%'" Ma5$%'a P%'4a ( ))Ma5$%'a P%'4a 2 ( 1)Ma5$%'a P%'4a / ( 100Ma5$%'a P%'4a 8 ( )O5%"# ( 10

TOTAL ( 1,203La&%'" 2

Ma5$%'a P%'4a ( ))Ma5$%'a P%'4a 2 ( 210Ma5$%'a P%'4a / ( 110Ma5$%'a P%'4a 8 ( 123O5%"# ( 112

TOTAL ( 1,310

de plazo para la cancelaci%n de s"s obligaciones.

I3$5a%'" &$ Ma5$%'a# P%'4a#:

Ma" &$ O,%a:

:eg;n est"dios realizados, se concl"y% $"e para obtener el vol"men de operaci%n

de la n"eva empresa, se re$"erir# del sig"iente personal.

E4+$a&"# Ca%" S*$&" M$#*a

1


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an"al todas las c"entas, a e6cepci%n de la depreciaci%n, la c"al se mantendr# constante > ?8L@.

S$%3'!'"# P,'!"# ( 9,000,000Ma5$'4'$5" Ma)*'a%'a ( ,00,000D$+%$!'a!' Ma)*'a%'a y E)*'+" ( 1,000,000I4+*$#5"# D'($%$5$# %$5a ( 1,)00,000Ga#5"# Va%'"# ( 3,20,000T%a#+"%5$# ( 2),00,000

TOTAL ( 0,100,000

Ga#5"# &$ A&4''#5%a!' y V$5a#:

:e considera $"e la depreciaci%n de m"ebles y enseres es del 105 an"al en lnea recta sin salvamento y $"e la depreciaci%n

A%%$&a4'$5"# ( 1,000,000H""%a%'"# ( ,200,000

D$+%$!'a!'"$# E&'('!'"#1 M*$,;y E#; ( ,)0,000Ga#5"# G$$%a$# A&4''#5%a!' ( ),00,000

T%a#+"%5$# ( 9,00,000P%"3'#' D$*&a# Maa# ( 0

P%"+aa&a y "5%"# Ga#5"# ( 9,000,000TOTAL ( )),9)0,000

N4'a A&4''#5%a5'3a y &$ V$5a#

La n%mina estimada para el departamento de &dministraci%n y ventas es la sig"iente'

A&4''#5%a5'3a:

E4+$a&"# Ca%" S*$&" M$#*a

1 Aerente ( ,)00,0001 :"bgerente ( 3,200,0001 :ecretaria ( )0,0001 8ensajero ( )1),000

V$5a#:

E4+$a&"# Ca%" S*$&" M$#*a

1 Aerente de entas ( 3,100,0003 endedores ( )20,0000 0 ( 0

4ara el primer a!o se consideran los sig"ientes gastos, teniendo en c"enta $"e creceran en "n 5

de edificios es el )5 an"al, los dem#s gastos en "n 105.

Los s"eldos se incrementaran en "n5an"al, y se estiman las prestaciones y parafiscales de ley


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Ga#5"# F'a!'$%"#:

:i se llegase a necesitar, se solicitara "n crdito a largo plazo el c"al tendr# "na tasa de inters

del 25 semestre anticipado. Los crditos a corto plazo se otorgarian con "na tasa del 305

teniendo en c"enta $"e dic7o crdito depender# de las necesidades de financiaci%n adicional $"e

reporte el fl"jo de caja. *stos rec"rsos estaran encaminados a la financiaci%n del capital de trabajo.

M"5" . 2


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TASA DE EPECTATIVA 2VPN

BC

TIR

TIRM REINVERSIN 0RIESGO: AUGE 20

SITUACIN NORMAL 0RECESIN /0

LIUIDEZ

ENDEUDAMIENTO

RENDIMIENTO

PUNTO DE EUILIBRIO

esp"es de sensibilizar, e6ponga los motivos para tomar la decisi%n m#s convenienteC econ%mica y

financiera.

.


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COMERCIALIPRESUPUESTO COSTOS INDIRECTOS DE F

PRESUPUESTO COSTOS INDIRECTOS DE FARICACI N " CIF

L=: +=:/=: -D-*+/=: * E&F-+&+-GD 4&& *L &H= BD= ?1@ :* 4=I*+/&D 8*D:B&L-J

:* 4L&D/*& *D *:/* +&:=C :*-+-=: 4FL-+=:, 8&D/*D-8-*D/= * 8&MB-D&-&, *4*

ITEM MES MES 2 MES /

:ervicios 4;blicos ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

8antenimiento 8a$"inaria (30,000 (30,000 (30,000

epreciaci%n 8a$"inaria y *$"ipo (1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333

-mp"estos iferentes renta (12),000 (12),000 (12),000

Aastos arios (310,000 (310,000 (310,000

/ransportes (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000

(0 (0

(0 (0

(0 (0

(0 (0

TOTALES ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333

PRESUPUESTO #ASTOS AD$INISTRATI%OS & DE %ENTAS

4=I*++-GD 8*D:B&L-J&& 4&& *L &H= BD= ?1@.

:* 4L&D/*&C &-*D=:, =D=&-=:, :*-+-=: 4FL-+=:, *4*+-&+-=D*:, A&:/=:

ITEM MES MES 2 MES /

&rrendamientos (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000

onorarios (00,000 (00,000 (00,000

epreciaciones *dificios, 8"eb.y *ns. ()2,)00 ()2,)00 ()2,)00

Aastos Aenerales &dministraci%n ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

/ransportes (00,000 (00,000 (00,000

4rovisi%n e"das 8alas (0 (0 (0

4ropaganda y otros Aastos ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

(0 (0

(0 (0

(0 (0

(0 (0

TOTALES ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00

PRESUPUESTO DE N!$INA: OPERACIONAL' AD$INISTRATI%A & DE %ENT

ASES DE CALCULO

*F*D -D=LB+& /==: L=: :&L&-=: /&D/= * &8-D-:/&/-=: +=8= ?1@ L=: :&L&-=: *F*D =F**+* & L&: +=D-+-=D*: 8-D-8&: MB* =E*/& *L

?2@ L& +&D/-& * +&A=: I * 4*:=D&: =F**+*D & L&: D*+*:-&*: * +?3@ :* *F*D +&L+BL& L&: 4*:/&+-=D*: :=+-&L*: I L=: E&+/=*: * :*AB-


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I A&&D/-+* *84L*= -AD=.

O D=8F*: * +&A=O :&L&-= FK:-+=

?@ &L E-D&L * L& /&FL& &4&*+*D L=: +&A=: I *L &L= =&, *:/& BL/-8& *:BL/&D/*

?@ *D +&:= * MB* L& 4=I*++-=D * L& +&4&+-& -D:/&L&& -D=LB+* =&: *N/&:,

NOMINA DEPARTAMENTO

NOMBRE SALARIO BASE FACTOR SALARIO

DE CARGO A INFLACION INDEADO

05


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COSTOS MENSUALES PAGADOS CAJA C7O7LCOSTOS MENSUALES CAUSADOS P

TABLA DE SALARIOS PRIMER MES AO - RESUMEN PARA PRESUPUESTO PRODUCCI

NOMBRE DEL CARGO COSTO LABORAL N; HORAS VALOR HORA

TOTAL PERSONAS POR CARGO


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TOTAL COSTOS LABORALES MES C7 H7L7O PDATOS PARA INFORMES ECONOMICOS Y FINANCIEROSCOSTOS MENSUALES PAGADOS CAJA C7O7LCOSTOS MENSUALES CAUSADOS P

TABLA DE SALARIOS PRIMER MES AO - RESUMEN PARA PRESUPUESTO DE ADMINIS



Aerente (,9,1 190 (3,9:"bgerente (,9,9 190 (2,1

:ecretaria (1,009,11 190 (),311

8ensajero (99,)29 190 (,20

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

TOTALES ./1K>21K>2 .120 .K218/>

NOMINA DEPARTAME

NOMBRE SALARIO BASE FACTOR SALARIO

DE CARGO A INFLACION INDEADO

05

Aerente de entas (3,100,000 0.005 (3,100,000

endedores ()20,000 0.005 ()20,000

0.005 (0

0.005 (0

0.005 (0

0.005 (00.005 (0

0.005 (0

TOTALES /1>201000


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TOTAL COSTOS LABORALES MES C7 H7L7O PDATOS PARA INFORMES ECONOMICOS Y FINANCIEROSCOSTOS MENSUALES PAGADOS CAJA C7O7LCOSTOS MENSUALES CAUSADOS P

TABLA DE SALARIOS PRIMER MES AO - RESUMEN PARA PRESUPUESTO DE VENTAS



Aerente de entas (,12,9 190 (2),330

endedores (2,21,3 190 (12,

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

0 (0 190 (0

TOTALES .K12/81K .120 ./


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ADORA EL CHIRCAL LTDA ABRICACIN1 GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS Y NMINAS

SOLO DIGITE EN LAS CELDAS AZULES

=: & *E*+/=: * +=84*D* *L +=84=/&8-*D/= *D BD =-J=D/* * +=/= 4L&J

+-&+-=D*:, -84B*:/=: -E**D/*: * *D/& I A&:/=: &-=:, :- *L 4=I*+/= 4*:*D/&

MES 8 MES MES > MES K MES < MES 9

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

(30,000 (30,000 (30,000 (30,000 (30,000 (30,000

(1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333

(12),000 (12),000 (12),000 (12),000 (12),000 (12),000

(310,000 (310,000 (310,000 (310,000 (310,000 (310,000

(2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333

SOLO DIGITE EN LAS CELDAS AZULES

*D*&L*:, :B8-D-:/=: I =/=: &8-D-:/&/-=:, *D *L **D/= * *MB*- =/=:, -

MES 8 MES MES > MES K MES < MES 9

(1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000

(00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000

()2,)00 ()2,)00 ()2,)00 ()2,)00 ()2,)00 ()2,)00

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

(00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000 (00,000

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0 (0 (0

( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00

S SOLO DIGITE EN LAS CELDAS AZULES

* 4=B++-=D I 8*+&*= = *D/&: *+&= I L& *ABL&+-=D * L& L*I, L&: +-E&: :* *N4*:&D 8*D:B&L-J&&: I

4&+-& -D:/&L&& *L *:+*D&-= 4=F&FL*& :=+-&L +=D:-*&=: 4= L& L*I L&F=&L


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O E&+/= * -DEL&+-=DO DB8*= * 4*:=D&: 4= +&A=

*L &L= * D=8-D& ---= 190 =&: MB* :=D L&: =&: *&L*: * /&F&019/ .1>02 .>019/ .2K91K>0

SEGURIDAD SOCIAL

VALOR EPS FPP ARP

NOMINA BASE C 0;02 C 0;022

A 7 B C I J

1,00,000 (1)3,000 (209,2)0 (93,901,320,000 (112,200 (1)3,)0 (,90

3,090,000 (22,)0 (3)9,213 (11,29

)1),000 (3,) ()9,9 (2,3

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

>1K21000 .K1>2 .K91000 .201K0 ./8100

P

MB* +BF&D L& -DEL&+-=D & E-D * A&&D/-J& BD& *:+&L& :&L&-&L MB* 8=/-*


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910/81K001880188190 .KK1/00

P

19091>21K>2

RACIN

N; PERSONAS VALOR HORA

PTO TOTAL

1 (3,91 (2,1

1 (),311

1 (,20

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

8 .K218/>

TO VENTAS PRIMER MES AO

PRESTACIONES SOCIALES

N; PERSONAS VALOR CESANTIA INT CESANTIA PRIMA VACACIONES

B NOMINA BASE C 0;0>01000 ./


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0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

81>>01000 ./9>100 .81K2 .28/122

PARAFISCALES

VALOR CAJA ICBF SENA

NOMINA BASE C 0;08 C 0;0/ C 0;02

A 7 B C M N

3,100,000 (12,000 (93,000 (2,000

1,)0,000 (2,00 (,00 (31,200

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

0 (0 (0 (0

81>>01000 .1800 ./9112>018KKK12/81K

N; PERSONAS VALOR HORA

PTO TOTAL

1 (2),330

3 (3,20

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

0 (0

8 .>/1K0


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. L=: *8K: &H=: :* 4=I*+/&D &DB&L8*D/*.

=/=:C -A-/*L=:.

MES 0 MES MES 2 TOTALES

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 (9,000,000

(30,000 (30,000 (30,000 (,00,000

(1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,333,333 (1,000,000

(12),000 (12),000 (12),000 (1,)00,000

(310,000 (310,000 (310,000 (3,20,000

(2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2,1)0,000 (2),00,000

(0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0

(0 (0 (0 (0

( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 ( ),00,333 . >01001000

A-/*L=:

MES 0 MES MES 2 TOTALES

(1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 (1,)00,000 .1K01000

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 .18001000

(00,000 (00,000 (00,000 .91>001000

(0 (0 (0 .0

()0,000 ()0,000 ()0,000 .910001000

(0 (0 (0 .0

(0 (0 (0 .0

(0 (0 (0 .0

(0 (0 (0 .0

( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 ( ,2,)00 . 1901000

/asa de cambio :alario Fase

1005


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*I

SUBTOTAL

PRESTACIONES H

D7E7F7G H

(3,2)9

(2),92

(),912

(10,)2

(0

(0

(0

(0

.1801K8K

SUBTOTAL

SEGURIDAD L

I 7J7 L

(),210(33,))

(3,11

(130,)2

(0

(0

(0

(0

.1K0818

SUBTOTALPARAFISCALES O

M7N7 O

(12,000

(11,00

(2,100

(,3)0

(0

(0

(0

(0

.>0120

.01880188


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SUBTOTAL

PRESTACIONES H

D7E7F7G H

(90,9

(,90

(13),1

(10,)2

(0

(0

(0

(0

.11


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(),)00

(,3)0

(0

(0

(0

(0

.K9K121K>2

SUBTOTAL

PRESTACIONES H

D7E7F7G H

(,002

(32,091

(0

(0

(0

(0(0

(0

.9K81098

SUBTOTAL

SEGURIDAD L

I 7J7 L

(),9)

(39),32

(0(0

(0

(0


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(0

(0

.1


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LADRILLERA EL C'IRCAL S

BALANCE GENERAL PROYECT

A 1 A 2 A 3ACTIVO

CORRIENTEC00 B0., $ -69,053,465 $ -199,859,595 $ -215,361I.9/. T


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EL C'IRCAL LIMITADA - AN

INFLACIN 8%

TASA E!ECTATIVA 25%

TASA DE REINVERSIN 10%

AO # AO 1 AO 2

FL"#O -310,000,000 -74,053,465 -130,806,130

VALOR DE SALVAMENTO

FLU&O NETO -31#5###5### -745#354! -13#5$#!513#

1,119,600,000 1,256,283,568

# 1 2

310,000,000 1,193,653,465 1,387,089,698

-745#354! -13#5$#!513#

# 1 2

310,000,000

. RESUMEN DEL ANKLISIS POR ALTERNATIVAS

SITUACIN L0/.

VPN /. / -182578$534!VPN ,. / -2!54!35371TIR 12:3$%VR RECUPERACIN INVE 48158315#4#

TIR R 1#:$#%RIESGO MX 1 -1$5$815#42RIESGO MIN 1 -3753$8581

RIESGO MX 2 -3353!$5!48


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RIESGO MIN 2 -!!5#445#1#

RIESGO MX 3 -3584548

RIESGO MIN 3 -75$2!583!

RIESGO MX 4 2!5!15132

RIESGO MIN 4 13544752!#

RIESGO MX 775187582#

RIESGO MIN 385##45147

RIESGO MX ! 37$52$25$#8RIESGO MIN ! 181512!5$81

PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO 1 152!85$4!PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO 2

PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO 3

PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO 4

PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO

PUNTO EUILIBRIO AO !

RAN CORRIENTE 1 1:$#RAN CORRIENTE 2

RAN CORRIENTE 3

RAN CORRIENTE 4

RAN CORRIENTE

RAN CORRIENTE !

NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENT 4:8!NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENTO 2

NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENTO 3

NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENTO 4

NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENTO

NIVEL DE ENDEUDAMIENTO !

MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDA -11:1!MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDAD 2

MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDAD 3

MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDAD 4MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDAD

MARGEN NETO DE UTILIDAD !

. ANKLISIS A PARTIR

CRITERIO PROBABILIDAD FLU&O AO 1 FLU&O AO 2

AUGE 20% -14,810,693 -26,161,226

AO NORMAL 50% -37,026,732 -65,403,065

RECESIN 30% -22,216,039 -39,241,839

RIESO MIMO -18,891,042 -33,368,649

RIESO M&NIMO -37,389,591 -66,044,010

VALOR NETO ESPERADO

VE1 -2,962,139 -18,513,366 -6,664,812

VE1 -2$514#5317

VE2 -5,232,245 -32,701,533 -11,772,552VE2 -4857#!533#


37/53

VE3 -620,078 -3,875,488 -1,395,176

VE3 -5$8#5742

VE4 2,108,547 13,178,418 4,744,231

VE4 2#5#31518!

VE 6,115,898 38,224,364 13,760,771

VE $51#15#34

VE! 29,968,932 187,305,823 67,430,096

VE! 2$457#45$#

. FLU&O DE CA&A ES

-310,000,000 -28,140,317 -49,706,330 -5,890,742

# 1 2 3

. VALOR PRESENTE NETO ES

TASA DE E!ECTATIVA 25% 1.250

V!NE' -22,512,253 -31,812,051 -3,016,060

V!NE' 44,536,629 -310,000,000V!NE' -2!54!35371

. DESVIACIN ESTANDAR CRITERIOS

DE1 35,535,773,448,938 39,484,192,721,042 10,529,118,058,945

n

MJ F CL - EFCGGN2 PFCLGk = 1

P Q Desviacin estndarCL Q Valor de la prediccin del perodo KEFCLG Q Valor esperado del perodo kPFCLG Q Probabilidad de la prediccin del perodo k

N = Nmero de predicciones


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DE1 85,549,084,228,924

DE1 85248527

DE2 110,874,379,596,664 123,193,755,107,405 32,851,668,028,641

DE2 266,919,802,732,710

DE2 1!53375!$#

DE3 1,557,212,426,646 1,730,236,029,606 461,396,274,562

DE3 3,748,844,730,814

DE3 1583!5183

DE4 18,006,179,564,975 20,006,866,183,305 5,335,164,315,548

DE4 43,348,210,063,828

DE4 !5$3583!

DE5 151,487,058,096,499 168,318,953,440,555 44,885,054,250,815

DE5 364,691,065,787,868

DE 185#8!5$$!

DE6 3,637,454,291,740,070 4,041,615,879,711,190 1,077,764,234,589,650

DE6 8,756,834,406,040,910DE! 83577588

. VARIACIN DE INGRESOS POR EL RIESGO

PI1 -28,140,317 9,249,275

!I1 M' -1$5$815#42

!I1 MIN' -3753$8581

PI2 -49,706,330 16,337,680!I2 M' -3353!$5!48

!I2 MIN' -!!5#445#1#

PI3 -5,890,742 1,936,193

!I3 M' -3584548

!I3 MIN' -75$2!583!

PI4 20,031,196 6,583,936

!I4 M' 2!5!15132

!I4 MIN' 13544752!#

PI 58,101,034 19,096,886

!I5 M' 775187582#

!I5 MIN' 385##45147

PI! 284,704,850 93,577,959

!I6 M' 37$52$25$#8

!I6 MIN' 181512!5$81


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.


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LISIS DE RIESGO

AO 3 AO 4 AO AO !

-15,501,953 52,713,674 152,897,457 257,292,250

491,931,040

-15#1583 257135!74 125$87547 7485223528#

491,931,040

1,482,689,401 1,760,389,506 2,091,342,733 2,484,515,167

3 4 !

1,498,191,354 1,707,675,832 1,938,445,276 2,227,222,917

-15#1583 257135!74 125$87547 7485223528#

3 4 !

DE APALANCAMIENTO FINANCIERO


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EL RIESGO

FLU&O AO 3 FLU&O AO 4 FLU&O AO FLU&O AO !

-3,100,391 10,542,735 30,579,491 149,844,658

-7,750,977 26,356,837 76,448,729 374,611,645

-4,650,586 15,814,102 45,869,237 224,766,987

-3,954,549 26,615,132 77,197,920 378,282,809

-7,826,936 13,447,260 39,004,147 191,126,891


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ERADO

20,031,196 58,101,034 284,704,850

4 !

ERADO MANUAL

8,204,778 19,038,547 74,633,668


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44/53


45/53

-153#35!!2-38#525382

22:$3%84$58#5$4

2#:7#%27528154221357$$58


46/53

$2#53#$

3:!2

2!:!7


47/53


48/53


49/53


50/53

EL C'IRCAL LIMITADA

AO 1

C:F:P:E:

M: C:

M: C: P,/ V0: U./0/ C V00 U./0/

M: C: 25#73:3 1577:!

M: C: 31:7

4##58#582P:E:

31:7

P:E: 152!85$4!

PUNTO DE

EUILIBRIO

PUNTO DEEUILIBRIO


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EL

ACTIVO CORRIENTE

RAON CORRIENTE NIVEL ENDEUDAMIENTO

(E. , =0) !ASIVO CORRIENTE (P,.0 * *+*0 0,+0)

128,609,355

RAON CORRIENTE AO 1 NIVEL ENDEUDAMIENTO A

71,327,979

RAON CORRIENTE AO 1 1:$# NIVEL ENDEUDAMIENTO A

36,215,877


64,757,797

RAON CORRIENTE AO 2 #:! NIVEL ENDEUDAMIENTO A

43,763,177


74,503,749

RAON CORRIENTE AO 3 #:8 NIVEL ENDEUDAMIENTO A

RAONRAON

LIUIDE EN

RAONRAON

LIUIDE EN


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'IRCAL LIMITADA

!ASIVO TOTAL "TILIDAD NETA

( 100 MARGEN NETO UTILIDAD

ACTIVO TOTAL (MNU U//*0* 9.0) VENTAS NETAS

225,823,248

1 100 MARGEN NETO UTILIDAD AO 1

410,859,355

1 4:8! MARGEN NETO UTILIDAD AO 1

217,012,350


295,715,877

2 73:38 MARGEN NETO UTILIDAD AO 2

254,707,030


280,513,177

3 8#:$# MARGEN NETO UTILIDAD AO 3

ES FINANCIERASS FINANCIERAS

EUDAMIENTO RENTABILIDAD

ES FINANCIERASS FINANCIERAS

DEUDAMIENTO RENTABILIDAD


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100

-124,963,892

100

1,119,600,000

-11:1!

-106,332,582

100

1,287,965,448

-$:2!

-52,897,380

100

1,487,600,092

-3:!

Documents

Analisis FLUJO PROYECTO