Analysis of Factors Affecting the Winning Percentage ODI Cricket Matches

7/18/2019 Analysis of Factors Affecting the Winning Percentage ODI Cricket Matches

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Analysis of Factors Affecting

The Winning Percentage of One Day

International (ODI) Cricket Matches

MATH 240

PROFESSOR LANCE ROBINS

SUMMER 2015

By

REDDY BHARGAVI KAPUGANTI (0579749

SAI RA!U !AMPANA (057"#$5

VENU GOPAL VEGI (057$42#

POORVA PATIL (57$$50



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In this paper we endeaor to dissect the ele!ents infl"encing the winning percentage in

One Day International (ODI) Cricket Matches considering the inestigation of !ost recent #$

years% &eparate relapse trials are disting"ished for the e'a!ination of ODI a!ong different

co"ntries% This e'a!ination o"ght to gie knowledge on e'actly how ital eery ariale is for

the e'ec"tion of the tea!s in winning% O"r gro"p decided to reak down the ariales inside of

the one*day international cricket !atches on acco"nt of o"r interest in Cricket% We as st"dents of

India had the delight of seeing the Indians win the latest series% +ach of the fo"r of "s is fro!

India so when India won !atch this year it was energi,ing as eeryody olstered and

co!!ended their win% In spite of the fact that we were not ready to e'cl"siely concentrate on

the Indian cricket gro"p as the infor!ation wo"ld e e'cessiely restricted we chose !aking it

i!possile to e'tend o"r center to the whole ODI% In this way we chose to check whether we

co"ld fig"re o"t what ariales inside ODI infor!ation wo"ld pro!pt a higher winning rate%

O"r gro"p gathered infor!ation fro! +&P-%co!% The infor!ation gathered was of the .#

tea!s in one day gloal a!id the nor!al season traersing fro! #$ years% We e'pressed the

needy ariale as the winning rate co!p"ted the winning percentage y diiding total !atches

won y the total !atches played% In addition we considered other i!portant ariales as Aerage

(/atting) Aerage (/owling) &trike 0ate (/owling) and 1ighest &cores%

The independent ariales that are considered are Aerage (/atting) Aerage (/owling)

&trike 0ate (/owling) and 1ighest &cores% 1oweer the dependent ariale is Winning

Percentage% To score is to hit r"ns and e'pecting a tea! can score !ore r"ns we !"st accept that

their atting attit"des are nice% In addition to this in owling the tea! is concerned on taking

wickets and !aintaining proper aerage or r"n rate% Th"s we as a tea! hae predicted that of all

the ariales tested the atting 2 owling stats will yield the strongest linear relationship to the

winning percentage%

The free ariales that gro"p "nder owling details are no all wide all r"n rate and

wickets taken% -o all is the point at which a owler tosses oer the height of the ats!an or

owling off the crease% Wide all is the point at which the owler owls a all which is too away



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fro! the wide crease% 0"n*rate is the r"ns gien in a owling oer% Finally wickets taken are

n"!er of dis!issals either y st"!p*o"ts3 r"n*o"ts lw4s or catches% /owling strike rate is

defined for a owler as the aerage n"!er of alls owled per wicket taken% All these ariales

are considered for the total aerage of owling and strike rate%

5astly the free ariales that gro"p "nder atting details are r"ns and strike rate% /atting

strike rate is defined for a ats!an as the aerage n"!er of r"ns scored per #$$ alls faced% The

higher the strike rate the !ore effectie a ats!an is at scoring 6"ickly% 0"ns are scored y a

ats!an and the aggregate of the scores of a tea!7s ats!en (pl"s any e'tras) constit"tes the

tea!7s score% All these ariales are considered for the total aerage of atting and strike rate%

P-)&' S+%+*+

O"r tea! chose to analy,e the relationship of different details and the general winning

rate to etter co!prehend what constit"tes a 8winning gro"p8% In spite of the fact that we !ight

neer e s"re to what precisely constit"tes a tri"!phant gro"p we !ight want to think o"r

o"tco!es will reeal so!e insight into what details to search for in a tea! who has a higher

winning rate% We decided to reak down the acco!panying independent ariales to see which

had the !ost infl"ence on the winning rate9 Aerage (/atting) Aerage (/owling) &trike 0ate

(/owling) and 1ighest &core%

T,+ D,*;A88-)%<

This research paper is ased on the data collected fro! the +&P- ODI official wesite for

the ga!es played y .# ODI tea!s within the last #$ years% The +'cel data fo"nd in o"r

appendi' contains data s"ch as winning percentage highest score strike rate aerage atting and

owling%

/ased on the ac6"ired data the first step was to perfor! the descriptie statistics% This

wo"ld gie "s a s"!!ary of the oserations y analy,ing the !eas"res of central tendency

(!ean !edian and !ode) ariation (rage inter6"artile range ariance standard deiation

coefficient of ariation) shape (skewness) etc%



5

The second step was perfor!ing a linear regression analysis with each independent

ariale in relationship to o"r dependent ariale% The dependent ariale chosen is Winning

percentage and the independent ariales chosen are Aerage (/atting) Aerage (/owling)

&trike 0ate (/owling) and 1ighest &core% This was perfor!ed to detect the strength of a

relationship etween the two respected ariales and y analy,ing the scatter plot !eas"res of

ariation standard errors intercept etc%

-e't we perfor!ed a n"!ero"s relapse e'a!ination with the greater part of o"r

independent ariales in relationship to o"r dependent ariale (winning rate)% This e'a!ination

spoke to the error etween the real and anticipated worth sered to analy,e co!pletely the

acco!panying s"ppositions9 linearity a"tono!y and ordinariness s6"are with fl"ct"ation the

D"rin*Watson insights leftoer plot t detail p estee! and so forth% These o"tco!es wo"ld

per!it "s to inestigate the relationship of one needy ariale and !ore a"tono!o"s ariales y

looking at the coefficient of n"!ero"s deter!inations (r.) alanced sr. and the general F test%

The noteworthiness of the ariales was dictated y the p*esti!ation of $%$: or less9

• If the p*worth is !ore noteworthy than or e6"ialent to ; don7t dis!iss the inalid

spec"lation3• If the p*worth is not as !"ch as re<ect the inalid spec"lation% As a final step the

ariale !odel was chosen as the !ost appropriate for o"r case and seeral tests were

cond"cted to check its ass"!ptions incl"ding t*test hypothesis test regression analysis p

al"e etc%

R,/'+,

We ran a !"ltiple regression analysis as well as a si!ple linear regression on the data% The

si!ple linear regression res"lts can e fo"nd in o"r Appendi'% The !"ltiple regression !odels

ca!e o"t as significant% The ariales atting aerage and owling aerage affected the winning

percentage% We also noticed that oth atting aerage and owling aerage hae an i!pact on the

winning percentage along with tea! perfor!ance% Therefore for eery change in the al"e of

atting aerage or lowing aerage will hae an effect on winning percentage%



6

Coefcients P-value

Intercept 0.1468 0.0344

Ave(Battin! 0.00"5 0.0000

A#$(B%&'I)! 0.0113 0.0000

*+(B%&'I)! -0.005, 0.065"

* 0.0003 0.022"

There was no need to re*r"n the !"ltiple regression analysis again as the first !odel was

significant in itself ret"rning the p*al"es which are considerale for eery relationship% The

!"ltiple regressions were r"n on =:> confidence interal% The !odel has r s6"are al"e of %

=?@? and ad<"sted r s6"are al"e of %=:: which represents a good n"!er% The r s6"are n"!er

did not i!proe een if the least affecting independent ariale was re!oed indicating this to

e the est option%

The effect of owling aerage is interdependent on atting aerage score as well since

they oth contri"te to winning percentage% &"re tea!s !ight hae a positie i!pact on their

ho!e co"ntries "t the asence of etter owling !ight change the ga!e% &a!e as the atting

pitch has an i!pact on owling the lowing pitch wo"ld hae i!pact the atting score% In this

case oth ter!s hae an i!pact on total score and winning percentage%

We hae incl"ded the scatter plots for oth of the! elow% The plots also go hand in hand

with this infor!ation and it is 6"ite clear that the data for strike rate (owling) and highest score

are 6"ite scattered whereas aerage atting and owling appears as a co!!on collection of

perfor!ance n"!ers concentrated at one place%



,

S%++- P')+, T% B%++* A?-% 6 T% B)@'* A?-%

T% A?-% B%++*

T% B)@'* A?-%



8

T< M/'+8' R-,,)* O/+8/+

Regression Statistics

ultiple + 0."821

+ */uare 0."646Auste +*/uare 0."558*tanar$rror 0.0165

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F

+eression 4 0.1185

0.02

"6

10".03

42 0.0000

+esiual 16 0.00430.00

03

otal 20 0.1228

Coecients

StandardError

t Stat P-value

Lower 95%

Uer 95%

Intercept 0.1468 0.06352.31

23 0.0344 0.0122 0.2814

Ave(Battin! 0.00"5 0.0011

8.83

42 0.0000 0.00,2 0.0118A#$(B%&'I)! 0.0113 0.0020

5.5,4" 0.0000 0.00,0 0.0156

*+(B%&'I)! -0.005, 0.002"

-1.",

42 0.065" -0.0118 0.0004

* 0.0003 0.00012.51

62 0.022" 0.0000 0.0005



"

C)*'/,)*

The aoe ill"stration indicates that the coefficients are depicting correct relationships

with the dependent ariale% For instance the ariales like Aerage /atting and Aerage

/owling hae positie i!pact on the winning percentage whereas &trike 0ate and 1ighest

&cores do not etter the winning percentage% The coefficient for &trike 0ate is act"ally negatie

proing the sa!e%

As tea! atting aerage and owling aerage hae a higher i!pact on the winning

percentage and hence a tea! sho"ld e p"tting a higher e!phasis on oth owling and atting%

Meaning !ore ti!e sho"ld e spent with the owler so that his stats in reference to dis!issals

can e higher% This wo"ld ret"rn a positie i!pact on the oerall winning percentage% Moreoer

the ats!en sho"ld work on increasing their strike rate y !aking !ore r"ns and "sing new

strategies on the field while playing% The tea! sho"ld also p"t !ore ti!e in practicing on hitting

the all% If the tea! as a whole can i!proe its atting aerage it is !ore likely that n"!er of

o"ndaries will increase as well%

When selecting players for the tea! the captains sho"ld hae an idea that which player

can play in a strategic way on the field to score !ore r"ns% They sho"ld also watch o"t for

owlers who hae a history of good r"n rate (/owling) or a higher percentage in acco!plishing

wickets% Altho"gh a player can lose ailities or ailities can deplete oer ti!e it is still etter to

hae a stronger history of owling% When playing against other tea! it co"ld e eneficial for

the owler and the captain to know which players are !ore likely to hit o"ndaries (si'es and

fo"rs) !ore often%

We hae taken into consideration that the higher the sa!ple si,e the !ore closely the

representation of act"al n"!ers% Also eca"se of the range with respect to the ti!e coered



10

these res"lts can e tr"stworthy for not <"st the co!ing year "t for !any years to co!e% 1ence

o"r data coered .# tea!s spanning a #$ year period%



11

R3-*,

Data was retrieed pri!arily fro! ESPN:) arying y years

+&P- cricketinfo% (.$#:)% &tatistics One* Day International% 0etrieed fro!

ttpstats.espncricin7o.cocieninestatsine9.tl:

class;2<=lter;avance<roup>;tea<orer>;runs<result;1<tepla

te;results<t>pe;attin

+&P- cricketinfo% (.$#:)%&tatistics One* Day International% 0etrieed fro!

http9BBstats%espncricinfo%co!BciBengineBstatsBinde'%ht!l

class.3filteradanced3gro"pytea!3orderywickets3res"lt#3span!a'###EA"gE.$

#:3span!in###EA"gE.$$:3spanal#span3te!plateres"lts3typeowling

5eine D% &tephan D% 2&,aat % (.$#@)% Statistics for Manager: Using Microsoft Excel (p%

G#@)% Hpper &addle 0ier -9 Pearson +d"cation%



12

Appendix

Descriptive Summary: Average Batting

Ave(Batti

ng)

Mean35.6,,142

86

Median 3,.64

Mode ?A

Minimum 1,.4

Maximum 42.,,

Range 25.3,

Variance 2".3,"0

Standard

Deviation 5.4202Coe! o"Variation 15.1"@

S#e$ness -2.0180

%urtosis 5."253

Count 21

Standard&rror 1.1828

Descriptive Summary: Average Bo$'ing

AV&(BO*

N+)

Mean24.0461"04

8

Median 23.,"

Mode ?A

Minimum 1".4

Maximum 33.1,

Range 13.,,

Variance ".51",

StandardDeviation 3.0854

Coe! o"Variation 12.83@

S#e$ness 1.3552

%urtosis 2.8,"2

Count 21

Standard 0.6,33



13

&rror

Descriptive Summary: Stri#e Rate (Bo$'ing)

SR(BO*

N+)

Mean32.2380"5

24

Median 31.8

Mode 31.4

Minimum 28."

Maximum 3,.,

Range 8.8

Variance 4.3145

StandardDeviation 2.0,,1


S#e$ness 1.001,

%urtosis 1.123,

Count 21

Standard&rror 0.4533

Descriptive Summary: ,ig-est Scores ,S

Mean161.85,14

2"

Median 158

Mode ?A

Minimum ,8

Maximum 264

Range 186

Variance 2080.4286

StandardDeviation 45.611,


S#e$ness 0.3422

%urtosis 0.0602

Count 21

Standard "."533



14

&rror

Descriptive Summary: inning .ercentage

inning

/

Mean0.6200285

,1

Median 0.6348

Mode ?A

Minimum 0.3"4

Maximum 0.,585Range 0.3645

Variance 0.0061

StandardDeviation 0.0,84


S#e$ness -1.02,1

%urtosis 2.5563

Count 21

Standard&rror 0.01,1

inear Regression: Average Batting

!egression Statistics

ultiple + 0."334

+ */uare 0.8,13Auste +*/uare 0.8645

*tanar$rror 0.0288

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F



15

+eression 1 0.10,00.10,

0128.5"

40 0.0000

+esiual 1" 0.01580.000

8

otal 20 0.1228

Coecients

StandardError t Stat P-value

Lower 95%

Uer 95%

Intercept 0.1385 0.042"3.22,

, 0.0044 0.048, 0.2284

Ave(Battin! 0.0135 0.001211.33

"" 0.0000 0.0110 0.0160

Scatter .'ot: Average Batting



16

inear Regression: Average Bo$'ing


ultiple + 0.,112+ */uare 0.5058Auste +*/uare 0.4,"8*tanar$rror 0.0565

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F

+eression 1 0.06210.06

211".44

86 0.0003

+esiual 1" 0.060,0.00

32

otal 20 0.1228

Coecients

StandardError

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Uer 95%

Intercept 0.1856 0.0""31.8,

020.0,6

" -0.0221 0.3"34

A#$(B%&'I)! 0.0181 0.0041

4.4101

0.0003 0.00"5 0.0266



1,

Scatter .'ot: Average Bo$'ing



18

inear regression: Stri#e Rate (Bo$'ing)

!egression Statisticsultiple + 0.5266

+ */uare 0.2,,3Auste +*/uare 0.23"3*tanar$rror 0.0684

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F

+eression 1 0.03410.03

41,.2"

10 0.0142

+esiual 1" 0.08880.00

4,

otal 20 0.1228

Coecients

StandardError

t Stat

P-valu

eLower 95%

Uer 95%

Intercept -0.0205 0.23,,

-0.08

620."3

22 -0.5180 0.4,,0*+(B%&'I)! 0.01"" 0.00,4

2.,002

0.0142 0.0045 0.0353



1"

Scatter .'ot: Stri#e Rate (Bo$'ing)



20

inear Regression: ,ig-est Scores


ultiple + 0.6"22

+ */uare 0.4,"1Auste +*/uare 0.451,*tanar$rror 0.0580

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F

+eression 1 0.058"0.05

8"1,.4,

8, 0.0005

+esiual 1" 0.06400.00

34

otal 20 0.1228

Coecie

nts

Standard

Error

t

Stat

P-

value

Lower

95%

Uer

95%

Intercept 0.42,5 0.04,88."5

300.000

0 0.32,6 0.52,5

* 0.0012 0.00034.18

080.000

5 0.0006 0.0018



21

Scatter .'ot: ,ig-est Scores



22

Mu'tip'e Regression Ana'ysis:

Regression Statistics

ultiple + 0."821

+ */uare 0."646Auste +*/uare 0."558*tanar$rror 0.0165

%servations 21

ANOVA

df SS MS F Signican

ce F

+eression 4 0.11850.02

"610".03

42 0.0000

+esiual 16 0.00430.00

03

otal 20 0.1228

Coecients

StandardError

t Stat P-value

Lower 95%

Uer 95%

Intercept 0.1468 0.06352.31

23 0.0344 0.0122 0.2814

Ave(Battin! 0.00"5 0.00118.83

42 0.0000 0.00,2 0.0118A#$(B%&'I 0.0113 0.0020 5.5, 0.0000 0.00,0 0.0156



23

)! 4"

*+(B%&'I)! -0.005, 0.002"

-1.",

42 0.065" -0.0118 0.0004

*

0.0003 0.0001 2.51

62

0.022" 0.0000 0.0005

Documents

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Winning Percentage ODI Cricket Matches