Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Analysis Using Policy Insight &
TranSight
April 21, 2023
2
Topics
> About REMI
> Background of the Model
> Model Structure and
Features
> Applications & Case Studies
3
About REMI
Regional Economic Models Inc> Model was developed through a Mass-Highways
Grant
> REMI Established in 1980; based in Amherst, MA
> Extensive experience in developing economic and demographic models for policy analysis
> REMI models have been built for numerous states and cities in the US (NYC, Ohio, Los Angeles, Florida, all counties in Utah) and in Europe (Venice, France, UK)
4
My Responsibilities
Marketing
Technical Support
Consulting
Client Support
Training
5
The REMI Model
Policy Insight
TranSight
TranSight/Airports
REMI Consulting Inc.
REMI provides customized tools and services for a comprehensive evaluation of the total economic and demographic impact:
6
Distinguishing Features of the REMI Model
StructuredIncorporates a fully transparent robust economic model built on proven methods and theory
DynamicMeasures economic impacts and responsive demographic and economic changes over time
IntegratedFundamental elements like I-O models are integrated with advanced
CustomizedEach model is custom built to accurately describe your region
7
Forecast information
Forecast Available from 2004 to 2050 (version 8)
Both Regional and National Forecast Using variety of sources: BEA, BLS, Census,
RSQE Alternative Forecast ability to allow user:
Update employment forecast Align to other source (ie: population, fiscal, changes
since LHYR)
8
The REMI Approach
Control Forecast
Alternative Forecast
9
Model Structure
Output
Market SharesLabor & Capital Demand
Population & Labor Supply
Wages, Prices, & Profits
10
Policy Insight Linkages
State and Local Government Spending
Investment
(1) Output(1) Output
Output
Exports
Consumption
Real Disposable Income
(4) Wages, Prices, and Production Costs(4) Wages, Prices, and Production Costs
Employment Opportunity
Housing Price
Wage Rate Composite Wage Rate Production Costs
Composite PricesReal Wage RateConsumer Price
Deflator
(3) Demographic(3) Demographic (2) Labor & Capital (2) Labor & Capital DemandDemand
Optimal Capital Stock
Employment
Labor/Output Ratio
(5) Market Shares(5) Market Shares
Domestic Market Share
International Market Share
Population
ParticipationRate
Migration
Labor Force
11
Policy Insight EG Linkages
Intermediate Input Productivity
Intermediate Inputs (1) Output Block
(4) Wages, Prices, and Production Costs
Composite Wage
Production Costs
Composite Prices
(3) Demographic and Labor Supply
(2) Labor & Capital Demand
Labor Access Index
Employment
Labor Productivity
(5) Market Shares
Domestic Market Share
International Market Share
EconomicMigrants
Output
Commodity Access Index
12
Types of Models, Geography
Customized Models Using Region Specific Data
SingleRegionModel
Single Region Model Multi-Regional Model (linkages among regions)
Gross Commuter FlowsMulti-region exports and imports
Region1
Region2
Region3
13
Dynamic Properties
Methods
General equilibrium tendencies
Adjustment time paths
Population growth and feedback effects
Input
Allows the user to setup a detailed simulation incorporating different macroeconomic shocks over time to accurately represent their economy
14
Integrated Approach
The REMI model integrates key aspects of several economic modeling tools: Model Aspect
> I/O Inter-industry processing sector> CGE Equilibrium tendencies in factor and
material input markets> Econometric Estimates derived from panel
data> Economic
Geography Labor and product agglomeration
15
NAICS Classification Options
23* sector 2 digit BLS NAICS
70* sector 3 digit BLS NAICS
169* sector 4 digit BLS NAICS
* includes four non-private sectors: Farm S/L Government Federal Civilian Federal Military
16
Forestry, Fishing, Other
23 Industry Sector
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp, Warehousing
Information
Finance, Insurance
Real Estate, Rental, Leasing
Mngmt of Co, Enter
Admin, Waste Services
Educational Services
Health Care, Social Asst
Arts, Enter, Rec
Accom, Food Services
Other Services (excl Gov)
State and Local Government
Federal Civilian
Military
Farm
17
Representative Clients
EU Commission ECORYS/ECOTEC (Ned.) Los Angeles MTA US EPA Wilbur Smith Associates Florida State University City of Philadelphia District of Columbia New Mexico DOT MIT NESCAUM University of Utah ASU
New York EDC NIST Louisiana DOT Florida Legislature IRPET (Italy) Hawaii DBEDT Urban Institute RKG Associates University of Lille (France) NERA Utah Governor’s Office UNLV
Our Broad and Diverse Client Base Includes:
State Departments, Academic Institutions, Regional Planning Councils, Federal Regulatory Agencies and Consulting Firms
18
Examples of Analysis
Best use of public funds Evaluating multiple scenarios Quality of Life issues Private investment Transportation: Transit, highway, freight Energy Legislative analysis Industrial Investment Residential Development Natural Disasters
19
Recent Studies:
Corridor Analysis – Central Puget Sound Evaluating multiple scenarios Specific Funding attention
Base Realignment and Closure related expansion: Fort Riley Kansas Local impacts increased military spending will have on
localities All Housing Demand to be met by locality Still in the process
Private investment Mining Operations in the Upper Peninsula
Tax Policy Changes: Legislative Analysis Reducing Corporate Income Taxes to Attract Businesses
20
Demonstration
Demonstration of Policy Insight Forecast Simple Impact
TranSight Flow Chart Corridor Analysis Example
Q & A
21
Comparison of Models
TranSight Policy Insight
> Transportation “What If’s” > General “What If’s”> Forecasting
Transportationdemand model
Project and region specific data
EDFS-70 Policyvariables EDFS-70
22
TranSight Structure
23
TranSightDetailed Process Chart
Jonathan LeeRegional Economic Models [email protected]
© Copyright 2006Regional Economic Models Inc.
All rights reserved.
Contact
