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IRPC Public Company Limited
Analyst Meeting : 4Q17 & 2017 Result
19 February 2018
Disclaimer
This presentation material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only. IRPC is furnishing it solely for use byprospective investors / analysts in the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy orcompleteness of such information. By accepting this material each recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability forany representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be material to the recipient’s decision. Each recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
2
3
2017 Performance Highlight 1
Achievement in 2017
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
Agenda
CEO Agenda
22%
63%
15%
Financial Highlight: 4Q17 & 2017 Performance2017 Performance Improvement driven by better products yield
48,006 52,355 58,443
168,349 197,594 QoQ 12%
YoY 22%
Overview of Business
Net Sales(net excise tax)
Dubai (Avg.)
Unit: $/bbl
Net Income
Unit: MB
Unit: MB
YoY 166%
QoQ 39%
EBITDA
Unit: MB
4,473 6,635 6,530
17,430 20,420
YoY 46% QoQ 2%
Petroleum Petrochemical Utilities and Others
Net Sales(net excise tax)
EBITDA
Net income
4
YoY 17%
YoY 17%
YoY 17%
2017
33%
56%
11%
68%
30%
2%
197,594MB
20,420MB
1,694 3,248
4,513
9,721 11,354
4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
11,354MB
Market GIM ($/bbl) 12.61 15.05 14.33 13.04 14.48
48 51 5941
53
Crude run KBD 188 201 207 183 180TA in 1Q17
Acct. GIM ($/bbl) 13.06 16.09 17.22 12.80 15.49
28%
62%
10%
67%
31%
2%
10%
83%
7%
2016
17,430MB
9,721MB
168,349MB
5
Everest Project Highlight : 4Q17 & 2017 Performance97% target achievement in 2017
Procurement Area
Commercial Area
Operations Area
Corporate Area - Non HR
• Maximize energy efficiency and reduce loss in production units
• Improve efficiency and effectiveness of maintenance
• Reduce production unit downtime and minimize operating days lost
• Maximize commercial value generation from refined petroleum and petrochemical products
• Asset Port and Tank management
• Optimize timing, duration and cost of turnaround
• Spend optimization with key expenditure categories
• Optimize small CAPEX spend for highest value expenditures
• Budget management
• Optimize planning and policies to ensure continued productivity
enhancement
2,560
1,921
177
281
3,011
1,179
234
287
7,0036,807Total
Y2017 (Target)2017 Actual
Unit: MB of EBIT *
$
Integrated Supply Chain• Optimize crude selection, product blending and hydrocarbon stock
• Enhance throughput & yield by adjusting production unit parameter
Corporate Area - HR
• Develop capabilities to sustain both performance and health
• Improve organizational health practices for top quartile outcomes
1,348
71618
2,077
Key Area
EBIT * : Realized Benefit
6
Organization Health results
APAC Benchmark
Top Quartile
Second Quartile
Third Quartile
2017 Results
78
2015 Results
69
Motivation62%
Capabilities79%
Accountability79%
ExternalOrientation
62%
Coordination &Control
60%
Direction77%
Leadership68%
Innovation& Learning
68%
Culture & Climate70%
Motivation72%
Capabilities82%
Accountability82%
ExternalOrientation
72%
Coordination &Control
75%
Direction87%
Leadership80%
Innovation& Learning
79%
Culture & Climate77%
7
2017 Performance Highlight
Achievement in 2017 1
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
Agenda
CEO Agenda
Efficient energy usage management :Energy Intensity Index (EII) at 90.40%2017 : 3.49%
Safety improvement : Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) at 0.45% in 2017: 0.13%
2015 2017
93.89%90.40%
0.580.45
Achievement in 2017 : Operation
● The Prime Minister’s Industry Award 2017 3 awards :
- Productivity Improvement
- Quality Management
- Energy Management by efficient use of resources
● Thailand Energy Awards 2017 2 awards :
- Energy Management Team
- Energy Administrator
2016
97.07%
0.46
2015 2016 2017
710 12
2015 2016 2017
8
Zero Shutdown Plants: Zero shutdown plants: 12 plants in 2017 vs 10 plants in 2016
9
Achievement in 2017 : Commercial
IRPC – UBE (Thailand) entered into
Steam & Tank Service Supply and Purchase Agreement
Increase High Value Added and Specialty Products Volume Ratio
IRPC reached its specialty product target: 45% of petrochemical portfolio
Affirmed Customer Technology Support customer
Real Time International Transfer thru“Krungsri Blockchain's Interledger” Innovation
: The first Thai business sector
Achievement in 2017 : Finance & Accounting
Signed onExtended Business Collaboration
Extended Crude Payment (60 Days) With PTT
Amount 12,000 MB
Signed Extended Inter-Company Borrowing and Lending with PTT,
ICBL Agreement :
IRPC as Borrower 10,000 MBIRPC as Lender 1,500 MB
Fitch Rating revised
Outlook from negative to “Stable” and affirm rating at ‘A-(tha)’
SET Awards 2017
”Best Investor Relations Award”
The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2017
“The Best FX Solutions Thailand”
10
Achievement in 2017 : Awards and Recognition in 2017
Asian Excellence Awards 2017
● Asia’s Best CEO
● Asia’s Best CFO
● Best IR Company
(Thailand)
Best Innovative Company Awards
SET Awards 2017IRPC CEO as 1 of 55 leading
Asian business leaders from 5,000 corporations by CNBC
The Prime Minister's Industry Award 2017
Golden Peacock Global Award for Excellence in Corporate Governance 2017
Honorable NACC Integrity Awards 2017 (2nd year)
Best SET Sustainability Awards 2017
Thailand Sustainability Investment 2017
1 of the 100 leading global energy companies by Thomson Reuters
DJSI Emerging Market:Oil & Gas Refining
and Marketing (4th year)
Thailand Energy Awards 201711
12
2017 Performance Highlight
Achievement in 2017
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
Agenda
CEO Agenda
7 12 6 10 19 17 18 4515 2711 21 34 33 43
99
53
68
2965
72 49
121
215
23
29
2
18 17 9
52
47
7
8
2
76
7
15
22
13
11
5
1015
21
24
52
118 156
55
132156
136
274
480
3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
LPG
L-Sulfur
Ethylene
Propylene
HCN
Diesel
Fuel Oil
1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9
3.4 3.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5
0.9 0.9 0.9
3.4 3.3
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Lube
Asphalt
50% 49%63% 68% 61% 68% 66% 64% 57% 65%
27% 23%
23% 16% 25% 20% 15% 14% 23%18%
9%10%
9% 11% 9% 6%5% 9% 10% 7%
14% 18%5% 5% 5% 7%
14% 13% 10% 10%Others
Domestic
Far East
Middle East
4.1 3.1 2.6 2.1 2.3 1.4 1.9 2.6 3.0 2.1
187 182 176 188 116 194 201 207 183 180Crude Run
(KBD)
51% 51%69% 74% 62% 68% 66% 68% 61% 67%
49% 49%31% 26% 38% 32% 34% 32% 39% 33%
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Sweet Crude
Sour Crude
87% 85% 82% 87% 53% 90% 93% 96% 85% 84% % U-Rate
TA in 1Q17TA in 1Q17
Petroleum ProductionSlightly decreased U-Rate despite Major Turnaround in 1Q17
Unit : Mbbl
Unit : Mbbl
LPG & Others
Naphtha
Gasoline
Diesel
Fuel oil
Unit : KMT
1.8 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.7 1.8 1.8
Remark: Excluding internal use quantity Remark: Excluding internal use quantity 13
Premium over Dubai ($/bbl)
6.8 6.4
65% 86% 38% 82% 95% 95% 43% 78% % U-Rate
Crude Intake
RDCC ProductionRefinery Production
Lube Base oil & Asphalt
1.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 5.0
2.0
7.6 7.6 7.1 7.6 4.7
7.8 8.6 8.4
29.8
29.5
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
0.8
1.7 1.7 2.0
6.3
6.2
0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8
0.6
1.0 0.6 1.0
2.5
3.2
0.3 0.1 - 0.1
0.0
0.1 0.1 0.2
0.9
0.5
11.8 11.4 10.0 10.7
6.6
11.3 11.3 11.9
44.5 41.4
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Unit : KMT
TA in 1Q17TA in 1Q17 TA in 1Q17TA in 1Q17
100% 95% 87% 93% 48% 83% 87% 86% 93% 76% % U-Rate
3.2
1.4 2.0
4.0
2.4 2.1
3.8 3.8
2.7 3.1
2.8
2.6 2.1
1.4
2.4 2.5
2.1 1.8
2.2 2.1
6.0
4.0 4.1
5.4
4.8 4.6
5.9 5.5
4.9 5.2
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Refinery Lube Base
3,985 3,734 3,368 3,717 2,939 4,440 4,327 4,404 14,804 16,110Lube Base
13.2 12.1 12.9 13.9 9.0 14.1 14.3 15.0
52.0 52.4 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.7
1.1 1.7 1.8 1.8
7.2 6.4
15.2 13.9 14.5 15.6 10.1 15.8 16.1
16.8
59.2 58.8
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Refinery Lube Base
20,981 23,354 24,221 29,792 21,405 30,314 31,053 36,243 98,348 119,015 Refinery
24,966 27,088 27,589 33,509 24,344 34,754 35,380 40,647 113,152 135,125Petro leum
Sales Volume & Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 19.1 67.0 65.5
Crude intake M.bbl
Unit : $/bbl
Sales Distribution
Local58%
Export42%
2017
Top 5 Export Destination in 2017 : Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
4Q17 : Petroleum revenue 15% increase QoQ: 10% price increase & 5% volume increase 21% increase YoY : 13% price increase & 8% volume increase
4Q17 Market GRM was $5.5/bbl: $0.37/bbl decrease QoQ due to higher Crude Premium over
Dubai $0.12/bbl increase YoY from higher Gas Oil & Lube Base Oil
spread
Local54%
Export46%
YoY 8%
QoQ 5%
YoY 21%
QoQ 15%
Sales volume (M.bbl)
Revenue (MB)
14
YoY 1%
YoY 19%
Petroleum Group : Sales & GRMLower crude premium helped support Market GRM
4Q17
2017 : Petroleum revenue 19% increase YoY: 20% price increase vs 1% volume
decrease 2017 Market GRM was $5.2/bbl: $0.34/bbl increase YoY due to higher Gas Oil & FO spread Lower cost from Crude Premium over Dubai
TA in 1Q17TA in 1Q17
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Market GRM
2017 : YoY slightly lower U-rate given TA in 1Q17 4Q17: 100% Aromatics & Styrenics U-Rate at 184 KTA
101 92 97 96 48 95 101 97
386 350
3 1 1 4 3
2 4 3
9 12
81 75 73 82 62
85 81 84
310 313
184 168 170 182
113
182 186 184
705 675
49 52 44 29 10 53 58 52 175 174
134 139 137 126 99 140 162 199
535 600
183 191 181 154
109
193 220
251
710
774
Petrochemical Group : ProductionU-Rate increased after TA: Capacity increase & efficiency improvement
Styrenics
Aromatics
Aromatics & StyrenicsOlefins
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
98% 89% 80% 93% 61% 97% 104%100% 91% 90% % U-Rate
90% 86% 77% 80% 71% 95% 92% 94% 84% 88% Polystyrenics
97% 78% 49% 105% 69% 107% 113% 110% 82% 100% Styrenics
106% 98% 100% 98% 47% 94% 110% 99% 100% 88% Aromatics
Polystyrenics
Olefins
Polyolefins
Unit : KMT Unit : KMT
Remark : - Utilization rate calculated based on the main products- volume excluded internal use
2017: 87% Olefins U-Rate as planned TA in 1Q17 4Q17: 101% Olefins U-Rate at 251 KMT:
PPE started up in Sept. 2017 with 160 KTA capacity
15
UHV COD
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
94% 95% 88% 84% 54% 95% 97% 101% 90% 87% % U-Rate
88% 91% 89% 82% 67% 93% 98% 104% 87% 91% Polyolefins
99% 99% 87% 85% 42% 96% 97% 98% 92% 83% Olefins
Aromatics Lower U rate due to heater maintenance of Reformer Unit
182 152 163 180 114 160 185 172
677 631 196 212 226 224 169
237 270 276
857 952
378 364 389 404 283
397 455 448
1,534 1,583
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Petrochemical Group : Sales & PTFBetter Styrenics spread caused higher 2017 MKT PTF
1.8 2.4 1.5
2.4 4.0
2.9 2.9 2.7 2.0 3.0
4.9
5.9 5.7 3.8
5.7
5.1 5.3 5.1 5.1
5.2
6.7
8.3 7.2
6.2
9.7
8.0 8.2 7.8 7.1
8.3
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Unit : $/bbl
Aromatics & Styrenics Olefins & Polyolefins
Crude intake (M.bbl)
Sales Volume and Revenue
17.0 16.6 16.2 17.3 10.4 17.6 18.5 19.1 67.0 65.5
Sales Distribution
Local51%
Export
49%
4Q17
Top 5 Export Destination in 2017: Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Australia, Vietnam
Local55%
Export
45%
4Q17 : Petrochemical revenue 5% increase QoQ: 7% price increase vs 2% volume decrease 24% increase YoY: 13% price increase & 11% volume increase
4Q17 Market PTF was $7.8/bbl $0.4/bbl increase QoQ mainly from much lower Aromatics spread $1.6/bbl increase YoY mainly from value added products from
UHV and PPE projects and better Styrenics spread
QoQ 2%
QoQ 5%
Sales volume (KMT)
Revenue (MB)1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
16
YoY 3%
YoY 15%
Market PTF ($/bbl)
2017
2017 : Petrochemical revenue 15% increase YoY: 12% price increase & 3% volume increase
2017 Market PTF was $8.3/bbl $1.2/bbl increase YoY mainly from better product’s yield after the
COD of UHV and PPE projects & higher Styrenics spread
12,471 12,573 13,292 13,780 11,951 14,472 16,251 17,054 52,115 59,728Petrochem
6,781 7,497 8,058 7,445 6,798 8,361 9,543 10,342 29,780 35,044 Olefins
5,690 5,076 5,234 6,335 5,153 6,111 6,708 6,712 22,335 24,684Aro&Styrenics
YoY 24%
YoY 11%
Y16 = 0.11Y17 = 0.92Ever.= 0.49
6.0 4.0 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.2
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2 9.7 8.0 8.2 7.8 7.1 8.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0
1.2 1.0
0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 15.1 14.3 13.0 14.5
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
13.04
14.48
0.21
0.36 0.14 0.73
0.13
1.38
0.16
0.32
0.49
1.00
13.7 13.4 12.5 12.6 15.7 13.6 15.1 14.3 13.0 14.5
(1.2)
3.8 0.1 2.4
3.4
(1.2)
1.8 3.3 1.3
1.7
(1.5) (1.4) (1.2) (1.9) (0.8) (0.8) (0.7) (0.4) (1.5) (0.7)
11.015.8
11.4 13.1 18.3 11.6
16.1 17.2 12.8 15.5
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Gross Integrated Margin (GIM)Better product yield, Low crude premium and stock gain resulted in higher Accounting GIM
Market GIM
Unit: $/bbl
Accounting GIM
Unit: $/bbl
MKT GIM2016
MKT Spread
Fuel Loss & Internal
Use
Premiumon Dubai
UHV Project
EverestProject
MKT GIM2017
MKT GIM: 1.44 $/bbl
Unit: MB
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762 8,240 9,331 9,036
31,033 32,370
(712)
2,242 44 1,471 1,275
(712)
1,098 2,059
3,045 3,720
(920) (821) (686)(1,194)
(300) (466) (455) (231) (3,621) (1,452)
6,691 9,290 6,437 8,039 6,737 7,062
9,974 10,864
30,457 34,638
Market GIM Stk G/(L) & LCM Hedging
17
-0.22
$/bbl
3.2 1.4 2.0
4.0 2.4 2.1 3.9 3.8 2.7 3.1
2.8 2.6 2.1
1.5 2.4 2.5
2.1 1.8 2.2 2.1
6.0 4.0 4.1
5.4 4.8 4.6 5.9 5.5 4.9 5.2
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017
Refinery Lube Base
4.9 5.9 5.7 3.8 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.2
1.8 2.4 1.5
2.4 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.0 3.0
6.7 8.3 7.2 6.2
9.7 8.0 8.2 7.8 7.1 8.3
Olefins Aromatics&Styrenics
Market GIM by business
Unit: $/bblPetrochemical
Petroleum
Unit: MB
3,625 2,327 2,323 3,341 1,748 2,760 3,662 3,493
11,616 11,663 4,103 4,857 4,091 3,818 3,561
4,864 5,107 4,911
16,869 18,443
595 685 665 603 453
616 562 632
2,548 2,264
8,323 7,869 7,079 7,762 5,762
8,240 9,331 9,036
31,033 32,370
GRM PTF Power & Utility
Y16 = (2.95)Y17 = (2.09) Ever.= 0.13 Y16 = (3.02)
Y17 = (4.24)Ever.= 0.16
Benefit from Everest
0.86 1.22 0.81-0.01
Less Premium on sales
Y16 = 1.06Y17 = 0.84 Ever.= 0.14
56,445 54,895 55,812
6,141 10,503 2,957
62,587 65,398
58,769
2,042 3,759
2,145
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
4Q16 3Q17 4Q17
L/T Debt S/T Debt Cash
0.75 0.74 0.65
4Q16 3Q17 4Q17
Debt PortfolioLower D/E ratio and better current ratio
ST Loan5%
LT Loan (USD)
7%
LT Loan (THB)62%
Bond (THB)26%
Debt StructureDebt Profile
Float 74 THB 66
Fixed 26 USD 34
Currency (%) Interest Rate (%)
Net Debt = 56,625 MB Ex. Rate = 32.85 Baht/$
Financial Ratios
0.76 0.85 0.96
4Q16 3Q17 4Q17
< 1.0x
Net D/E CA/CL
Unit : MB
Net Debt
Maturity of Long-term Debt
Unit : MB
MB
ST Loan THB 2,957
LT Loan USD 125 4,097
LT Loan THB 36,467
Bond THB 15,248
Total 125 58,769
Debt Currency60,544 56,62561,639
18Remark: Long-term debt as at 31 Dec 2017
2,536 3,732
6,355 6,435
17,409
3,117 653
327 -
4,999
3,362 -
6,886
-
10,652
7,748 6,682
13,322 17,409
2018 2019 2020 2021 >2021
THB Bond
USD Loan
THB Loan
19
CAPEX Plan in 2018 – 20225 year CAPEX plan including initiative projects: Bt 53 bn
4,098 2,470 2,354 2,425 4,947 2,703
4,504
1,445
905
488
1,651
1,466
116 73
1,301
4,291
9,747
9,736
9,718
11,157
7,169 6,761
12,245
14,683
12,421
2017E 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Maintenance
UHV, PPE & PPC Projects
Everest & Delta Projects
Other Projects
Initiative Projects
Unit: MB
14,899 , 28%
1,445 , 3%
488 , 1%1,655 , 3%
34,793 , 65%
IRPC 5 year CAPEX Plan
UHV, PPE&PPC
Maintenance
Everest , Delta
Others
Total
53,279 MBInitiative Projects
Project Update : UHV and PPE & PPC
2017 2019
Gasoline Max. ProjectUHV Project Catalyst Cooler Project
02016
0
Benefit to GIMUnit: $ per bbl
UHV 2017: 1.35 $/bbl2018F: 1.97 $/bbl
Feed 2017: -Adj. 2018F: 0.08 $/bbl
2019F: 0.16 $/bbl
Gas 2017: 0.06 $/bblMax. 2018F: 0.39 $/bbl
PP compound & specialties
(PPC)
PP Expansion Project (PPE)
Increase UHV benefit Maximize Gasoline Yield Reduce Thailand import
CAPEX : 800 MB
Capacity:25 mn litre/month
GIM 0.4$/bbl
UHV value added
Flexibility of crude selection
Utility cost from cracking heavy crude molecule
CAPEX : 1,320 MB
COD : ~ 1Q19
GIM 0.3$/bbl
Catalyst Cooler
Feed adj. & Reformulate Catalyst
21%-23%Propylene Yield Mitigation Plan: Lighter feed
& reformulate Catalyst Time: ~ 6 months GIM 0.3 – 0.4 $/bbl
CAPEX : ~ $ 1.1 bnCOD : July 2016 GIM 1.5-2.0 $/bbl
COD : July 2016 2016 Util. rate : 43% 2017 Product Yield :
18% Propylene Yield GIM 0.3 - 0.4 $/bbl(only short term)
Gasoline Maximization
To fill up Catalyst by mid 2018
COD : Nov. 17Current: 19-20% Propylene Yield from feed adjustment
Capacity: 140 KTA
CAPEX : 5,323 MB
GIM0.4$/bbl
PP Compound
COD in Sept. 2017
Capacity:160 KTA
CAPEX : 2,799 MB
GIM0.4$/bbl
PP expansion
COD : Dec 31, 17
PPE 2017:0.13 $/bbl2018F: 0.50 $/bbl
PPC 2017: -2018F:0.31 $/bbl
Cat. Cooler 2018: -2019F: 0.3$/bbl
MC Plan : Feb 19 COD Plan : End 1Q19
UHV & UHV value added & PPE & PPC
Total Benefit to
GIM: $/bbl
2017: 1.54$
2018F: 3.25$
2019F: 3.63$
20
21
2016 Performance Highlight
Achievement in 2016
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook 1
Agenda
Highlight from CEO
22
Petroleum Outlook
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18
USD/BBL
Actual PRISM
Dubai Price Outlook
Feb. 18 Mar.-Apr. 18 2Q18
(-) Lower crude oil demand from refinery maintenance in the U.S.
(-) Expected growth in U.S. shale oil production by 0.11 MMBD to hit 6.55 MMBD in Feb (EIA)
(+) Continual support from OPEC and Non-OPEC supply cuts
(+) Collapsing Venezuela’s Jan output to 1.61 MMBD, near a 30-year low.
(-) Concern over rising U.S. oil production and exports
(-) Lower crude oil demand from global refinery maintenance
(+) Expectation of high compliance rates of output cuts by OPEC and Non-OPEC
(-) Higher Non-OPEC supply especially U.S., Canada and Brazil
(+) Falling global oil inventories due to higher demand and lower supply
(+) Strong refinery run to meet higher demand during summer
Factors to watch• OPEC & Non-OPEC compliance rates
Factors to watch• The Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial
Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in April
Factors to watch• OPEC meeting on 22 Jun
23
Petroleum Outlook
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
Naphtha Mogas Naphtha PRISM Mogas PRISMULG 95
Naphtha
Naphtha & ULG 95 Outlook
USD/BBL
Product Feb. 2018 Mar. – Apr. 2018 2Q18
MOGAS Seasonally higher demand and the onset of spring maintenance
A seasonal downturn in U.S. refinery utilization and a heavy spring maintenance schedule in the Middle East
Firm transportation demand during warmer weather
Seasonally higher demand and the onset of spring maintenance
▼ High Chinese refinery run-rates amid higher export quotas and new refining capacity
Global refinery turnaround season to reduce overall refined product supply
Improved transportation demand after winter ends and stock replenishment
▼ Nghi Son (220 KBD) refinery to start
commercial operation in 3Q18
NAPHTHA Higher supply arrivals into Asia, especially India and the West
▼ Lower naphtha demand effected from
lower LPG prices Returning gasoline strength
Arbitrage flows from the West should remain ample as the downtrend in European naphtha
Lower Asian demand during peak seasonal turnaround
Feedstock switching to cheap LPG
Additional cargoes from the Middle East will hit the Asian market
Global cracker T/A season Steadily high import from China Returning gasoline strength
24
Petroleum Outlook
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18
GO PRISM FO PRISM GO crack FO crackGas Oil
FO
Gas Oil & FO OutlookUSD/BBL
Product Feb. 2018 Mar .- Apr. 2018 2Q18
GAS OIL Cold weather in North East Asia and U.S. East Coast support Gasoil demand
An outage of Taiwan’s refinery
Stable-to-high Chinese exports due to high refinery runs and new quota allocations
Soften heating demand after winter ends
Higher Russia & U.S. arbitrage flow to Europe could limit Asia outflow
Return of the Middle East refineries from maintenance in 1Q18
Global refinery turnaround season to reduce overall refined product supply
Healthy Asia Pacific demand, supported by agricultural sector consumption
FUEL OIL Pakistan’ s power fuel has changed from fuel oil to LNG
Lower Japanese demand due to using natural gas and nuclear instead
Lower arbitrage flows out of the Middle East ahead of heavy refinery maintenance
Lower FO demand in China’s teapot refinery feedstock after increasing crude import quota
Trend of lower demand in power sector and industry
Lower arbitrage flows out of the Middle East ahead of heavy refinery maintenance
Steadily high exports from the Middle East due to refinery resume production and the prolonged shutdown of UAE
Trend of lower demand in power sector and industry
Petrochemical Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2018 2017 PRISM
Ethylene Price and Spread with Naphtha MOPJSpread ( $/Ton)Price ( $/Ton)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2017 2018 IRPC 2018
Polyethylene Price and Spread with EthyleneSpread ( $/Ton)Price ( $/Ton)
Product Feb. 2018 Mar. 2018 2Q18
Ethylene + Restock before Chinese New Year Holidays + Short term up new China SM + Strong demand from MEG and SM, HDPE pipe- Both SEA and NEA run at high Operating Rate- During the spring festival, demand down- Mideast downstream plant T/A in 1Q18
+ Asia cracker T/A in 1Q18 - Mideast downstream plant T/A in 1Q18
+ Asia peak T/A crackers in 2Q18- Asia/Mideast downstream EG & MEG T/A in
2Q18
HDPE PIPE
GRADE
+ Tight supply amid strong demand in SEA+ Restock before Chinese New Year Holidays
+ Strong market prices from high feedstock and limit supply cost production
+ Restock after Chinese New Year Holidays
+ Ethylene feedstock price be firmed+ Expect demand to be stable-to-firm
since the warmer weather
25
Petrochemical Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2017 2018 PRISM
Propylene Price and Spread with Naphtha MOPJSpread ( $/Ton)Price ( $/Ton)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2017 2018 PRISM
Polypropylene Price and Spread with PropyleneSpread ( $/Ton)Unit price ( $/Ton)
Product Feb. 2018 Mar. 2018 2Q18
Propylene + North East Asia T/A+ Restock before Chinese New Year+ Good in PP and Phenol market- Return of Key’s PDH producer
+ FCC plants shutdown+ Chinese government ban for import recycle
plastics will cause demand C3 and propylene balance is expected to be tightened
+ Asia cracker start T/A by end of Feb. –Mar.- New FCC startup
+ Asia T/A peak of cracker in 2Q18+ Chinese government ban for import
recycle plastics will cause demand C3 and propylene balance is expected to be tightened
- Expansion of new propylene plant in China
PP + PP price still be firmed + Restock before Chinese New Year+ Major PP compound in Japan be S/D for
maintenance+ Import supply remained tight due to lack
of deep sea cargoes
+ PP feedstock price be firmed + High demand during Summer
+ PP price be firmed+ Demand improve and restocking before
Ramadan
26
27
Petrochemical Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
J F M A M J J A S O N D2017 2018 PRISM
Styrene Price and Spread with Feedstock EBSpread ( $/Ton)Price ( $/Ton)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2017 2018 PRISM
Polystyrene Price and Spread with Styrene Spread ( $/Ton)Unit price ( $/Ton)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
J F M A M J J A S O N D
2017 2018 IRPC
ABS Price and Spread with FeedstockSpread ( $/Ton)
Price ( $/Ton)
Product Feb. 2018 Mar. 2018 2Q18
SM + Pre-buying ahead of the potential imposing of an anti-dumping duty (ADD) by China
+ Pre-buying demand ahead of the potential imposing of ADD by China
+ SM stock preparations for maintenance next spring
+ South Korean producers reduce the export volume to China may cause an increase in Chinese domestic prices
- Deep sea cargo arrival
ABS + Pressure from higher feedstock SM and BD costs- Slower demand in early February ahead of
the Lunar New Year holiday
+ ABS and ABS alloys are poised to make headways in replacement of other engineering plastics and in some cases metals
- Operation rates of major ABS producers have been running at 90% capacity
+ Demand improve ahead of manufacturing season
PS + Resumption of usual PS demand for production requirements as Chinese New Year in China falls
- Cheaper plastic substitute such as PP and PET for some applications
+ SM price be stabled to Firmed- Demand in China remain soft as buyers still
have stock to hand over
+ Demand from the electronics/appliances sector in China would see to the healthy revival of PS demand in Northeast Asia
28
2017 Performance Highlight
Achievement in 2017
Operation & Financial Performance
Industry Outlook
Agenda
CEO Agenda1
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020Power of Growth, Power of Digital & Power of People: “GDP”
Capacity Before After
Propylene
(UHV)
412 KTA 732 KTA
2010
2014
Margin Improvement
• Operational Excellence
• Commercial Excellence
• Procurement & HR
Excellence
Benefit +135 MUSD
INDIVIDUAL OWNERSHIP
SYNERGY
PERFORMANCE EXCELLENCE
INNOVATION
RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOCIETY
INTEGRITY & ETHICS
TRUST & RESPECT
Projects Completion
• Operational Efficiency Improvement
• Asset Utilization Enhancement
• Product and Service Improvement
• Capacity and Products Expansion
Incremental Margin and Organization Health
• Capability Building
• Owner mindset & Performance
Orientation
• Cultural Changes
Fully Integrated PP
Revenue Growth of 5%
EBITDA Growth of 10%
1st Quartile ROIC in Petroleum
and Petrochemical Industry STRONG
Member of DJSI Emerging
Markets Universe
Capacity Before After
PP
(PPE&PPC)
475 KTA 775 KTA
20172016
Capacity Before After
CHP I
- Electricity
- Steam
PRP
EBSM
108 MW
200 T/hr
312 KTA
200 KTA
328 MW
620 T/hr
412 KTA
260 KTA
BIG LONG
Leading Integrated Petrochemical Complex in Asia by 2020
Power of GrowthG
Power of DigitalD
Power of PeopleP
29
30
GDP: From Aspiration to Execution
Power Three : 3 Pillars for achieve Top Quartile in 2020
Power of
Digital
Power of
PeopleTruly embed
and live the IRPC
DNA
Develop next
generation of
Top 30 leaders
Continue to
establish lean,
fit-for-purpose
organization
P
Power of
Growth Maximize
aromatics for
competitiveness
Growth by
M&A
Everest forever
for sustainable
growth
Drive R&D
excellenceG
OPS 4.0
Smart
Operation (AI)
ISC 4.0
Integrated
Supply Chain
CCM 4.0
Customer
Centric DigitalD
ERP 4.0
ERP
Transformation
100MUSD
100MUSD
100MUSD
IRPC Strategic Roadmap to 2020
31
32
4.0MARS - Maximize AromaticsG1
COD:
4Q22Feasibility study
and Technology
selection
Basic Engineering
Design
Package/FEED/ EPC
Bidding
Construction
202220192017 20202018
Reformer Benzene
300 KTA
Paraxylene
1,000 KTA
Naphtha PX
Project:
Aromatic
Complex
Internal use
& Export
Export
Naphtha
Treating
unitHCN
Toluene, Xylene, HA
Internal use
& Export
Other
Products: LPG, Raffinate, Raw
Hydrogen, Fuel Gas
200 KTA
CAPEX: $1.0 bn - $1.1 bn IRR 13%-15%
Petrochemical Yield 15% Existing + UHV
Petrochemical Yield 25% >>
Key Rational
• Utilize excess Naphtha /Toluene/Xylene
as feedstock to maximize
PX and BZ products
Maximize Aromatics
• Cost competitiveness
thru new technology
• Firmed PX demand growth:
CAGR 4% - 5%
32
ST - Strategic transformation and result delivery
Tracking and
Monitoring tool
▪ Set up PEAK
Efficient Organization
▪ Retraining LEAD,
Great Leader Camp 2
Effective project management
▪ Maintain cadence meeting
▪ Ensure strategic move
▪ Maintain KPI (Monthly Variance Analysis: MVA)
“Everest Forever”Vital Enabler to Drive
Sustainable Growth
CEO
Strategic transformation and result delivery
(ST)
Corporate Strategy
Management
E4E IRPC 4.0 M&A
Project 1 Project 2 Project 3
G2
System
PeopleProcess/Tool
3
2 1
E4E
100MUSD
33
GALAXY – Growth by M&AG3
Key activities – M&A and CVC focused
Initial
opportunity
scan
Align on areas for further
assessment, prioritize
5-8 targets, and
CVC opportunities
Due
dili-
gence
Negotiation
and closure
Integration and Recovery &
Transformation Services (RTS)
4 wks 8 wks ~9-12 months~4-6 weeks
tbdKick off
Jan 15, 2018
100MUSD
34
Drive R & D ExcellenceG4
Stabilize project delivery
Oct 2017 – Mar 2018
▪ Prioritize portfolio, establish
portfolio management
▪ Install project management
▪ Create disciplined steering to
transparency on pipeline
>2019
▪ Selectively commercialize
"big-bet" step outs
▪ Make early-stage technology-driven
acquisitions
▪ Invest in product development
incubators
Become world-class fast follower
>2021De novo
program
New S-Curve : Technology platform
integration
Upgrade the organization
Dec 2017 – Dec 2018
▪ Shift organization to
"fit-for-purpose", and drive
towards project completion
▪ Create a target skill map,
identifying gaps to target
▪ Supplement skill assessment with
partnership strategy
▪ Execute org upgrade as per
strategy
Turbo-charge R&D for growth
Jun 2018 – Dec 2019
Achieve flawless R&D execution
Increase agility, improving time to
market & value
Set up continuous improvement culture
Systematically use customer insight to
increase CM
Install high performing support
infrastructure (e.g. labs) using lean
principles35
36
IRPC 4.0 aims to unlock USD 100 mn in value through digital
"Digitized operations""Integrated customer
management and
engagement"
"End-to-end visibility
& real-time planning"
"Digitized support
functions"
IRPC4.0: Digital Refinery and Petrochemical of the Future
Enhance competitiveness through digitization to achieve the target
ROIC of 14% and unlock > USD100mn in value
OPS 4.0 CCM 4.0 ISC 4.0 ERP 4.0
• Increasing asset performance considering economic impact
• Increasing asset reliability through predictive maintenance
• Field operator effectiveness and safety
• Advanced and optimized pricing
• Increasing customer lifetime value through customer analytics
• Supply chain analytics to reveal process optimization insights
• Continuous rollout of advanced planning capabilities
• Collaborative and analytics driven procurement
• Re-architected technology landscape
• Next Gen Tech function
Remark: Timeline is subject to change
Dec 2018Apr 2018Jan 2018
100MUSD
D
Design & Pilot IndustrializationStrategy & Innovation
2019 37
38
39
Power
of
People
NEW DNA
Following orders
Process-oriented
Promise but delay
Business as usual
Silo-based
Biased reward
Too many
commentators
Individual Ownership
Result-Oriented
Promise and Deliver
Continuous Improvement
Do Things Together
No Bias
Actively Solve The Problem
P1
40
Identify and cultivate next generation of top 30 Leaders
Post-program assessment
Match demand & supply Evaluate
candidates Debate and
calibrate Produce
succession lists
Implement development program with IDP e.g. 10% Training 20% Coaching & mentorship 70% Breakthrough project
(BTP) & On-the-job
Implement external recruitment Proceed executive search for
mid-career Implement IRPC
Management Trainee
Demand:• Identify critical
roles• Develop mission
& profile
Supply: Assess potential
candidates & gap analysis
Proposed external candidates
3
3
4
5
Phase1Pre-successionplanning
Phase2Succession planning actually happens
Phase3Gap closing
1
2
Creating a
Talentculture
Attracting&
retaining the
right people
Recruiting, hiring and
onboarding
Growing
and
developing
leaders Motivating,
recognizing
performance
Talentmanagement& succession
planning
12
3
4
5
6
and rewarding
Phase1Study and design target
organization(2017)
Phase2 Quick win to transform to
Target organization(2018 onward)
Phase3Fundamental changes
and sustaining(2018-2030)
P3
P2
Thank You
Investor Relations Contact: [email protected]
Tel. 02-765-7380, Fax. 02-765-7379
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www.irpc.co.th
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the proposed event. IRPC makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. By accepting this material each
recipient agrees that IRPC shall not have any liability for any representations (express or implied) contained in, or for any omissions from this presentation.
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recipient of the information and data contained herein should perform its own independent investigation and analysis of the transaction and the creditworthiness of IRPC . Reference in this Disclaimer to this shall include references to the Appendices (if any) hereto.
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Statement of Financial Position & RatioHigher profitability Ratios derived from good performance
121,361 128,324
11,169 8,637
37,806 45,438
2,042
2,145
81,005 87,650
2,203 2,378
56,445 55,812
32,725 38,704
Unit: MB
PP&E
Other Non-C/A
Cash
172,378
Other CurrentLiabilities
L/T Liabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
Shareholders’Equity
Dec 31, 2017
184,544
Dec 31, 2016
Assets : Cash 103 MB AR 2,817 MB
Higher sales price Inventory 4,269 MB
Higher crude oil inventories and higher product price
PP&E 6,963 MB Rising from PPE+PPC Projects, maintenance
expenses offset with Depreciation
Liabilities & Equity AP 6,239 MB
Higher crude oil payable IBD 3,818 MB
Lower short-term loan of 3,184 MB and lower long-term loan including current portion of 633 MB (caused by long term loan of 19,500 MB drawdown to repay loans & bonds 19,322 MB and unrealized foreign exchange gain 787 MB)
Equity 6,645 MB Increase in NI 11,354 MB offset by dividend
paid 4,694 MB(@ 0.23 THB/share)
Other C/A
2016 2017 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 2016 2017 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.42 9.54 8.65 11.70 10.38 Current Ratio (time) 0.76 0.96 0.76 0.85 0.96
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.25 5.30 3.12 5.73 7.18 Quick Ratio (time) 0.23 0.30 0.23 0.32 0.30
Earnings per share (Baht/share) 0.48 0.56 0.08 0.16 0.22
Return on Equity (%) 12.41 13.47 12.41 11.11 13.47 Net Debt to Equity (time) 0.75 0.65 0.75 0.74 0.65
RATIOS
Financial Policy Ratio
Profitability Ratios Liquidity Ratios
Other Non-CurrentLiabilities
43