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Analyst meeting
February 16th, 2007
FY 2006 Consolidated results
Agenda
Summary
Financials 2006
Outlook 2007
Regulatory and legal aspects
Highlights 2006
Summary
• Financials 2006- 2006 Results in line with expectations- Increase in dividend to € 1,28 a share
• Outlook 2007
• Regulatory and legal aspects- Update electricity law published on July 20th, 2006- Update on the process for multi-year tariffs Royal Decree
• Highlights 2006
- Energy Consumption from Elia’s network in 2006
- Energy balance Elia net 2006
- Tariff evolution to the advantage of Elia’s customers
- Investments 2006
- Significant increase in energy exchanges
- Start of the Belgian Electricity Exchange on November 21st, 2006
Agenda
Summary
Financials 2006
Outlook 2007
Regulatory and legal aspects
Highlights 2006
Overview of Key IFRS Figures
ChangeIncome statement (€ million) 2006 2005 In %Consolidated turnover 711,5 714,2 -0,4%EBITDA (1) 292,6 295,9 -1,1%Operating result (EBIT) 204,0 211,8 -3,7%Financial result (98,3) (93,8) 4,8%Taxes (29,8) (41,5) -28,2%Consolidated net profit 75,9 76,5 -0,8%Net profit per share (€) 1,58 1,60 -1,3%Dividend per share (€) 1,28 1,27 0,8%Balance sheet (€ million) 31/ 12/ 2006 31/ 12/ 2005Total assets 3.898,1 3.855,8 1,1%Equity 1.308,6 1.282,7 2,0%Net debt 2.074,9 2.080,1 -0,2%Equity per share (€) 27,32 26,80 1,9%
Total number of shares (end of period) 47.898.052 47.898.052 0,0%(1) EBITDA = EBIT + depreciation + changes in provisions
IFRS
Average RAB 2006 3.444Reference equity (33%) 1.136Cost of equity 6,76%Equity reference remuneration (A) 76,82
Av. equity / Av. assets 34,18%Deviation on ref. equity 1,18%Equity deviation remuneration 3,19%D-factor (B) 1,29
Over-depreciation (C) -8,18
Fair remuneration (A+B+C) 69,94
B/ M Decision CREG over 2004 -1,75
Net profit Belgian GAAP 68,19
IFRS reconciliation 7,7
Net profit IFRS 75,89
Bottom-up Approach of Elia’s P&L in 2006 (EUR m)Bottom-up Approach of Elia’s P&L in 2006 (EUR m)Determination of net profitDetermination of net profit
2006 Profit and Loss
677,2
94,3
75,9
60,0
635,6
Charges Revenues
Tariff
Non tariff
Costs
Net profit
(1)
(1) OLO of 4,1293%; Beta of 1,0358 and a risk premium of 2,54%
(2) Av. Equity =1.295,5 and Av. Assets = 3.790,5
(2)
(3)
(3) OLO of 4,1293%; deviation rate of 70bp and tax rate of 33.99%
Surplus
1.307,41.329,5 7,19,9
(160,6)
91,1 20,6 9,8
2006 BelgianGAAP
Employee benefits
Regulatory assets
Deferred taxes
Capitalisation hard/ software
Elia Re Others 2006 IFRS
IFRS Impact on Equity and Net Profit IFRS Impact on Equity and Net Profit for year ending 31 December 2006for year ending 31 December 2006
Net
Pro
fit
Eq
uit
yReconciliation Be GAAP - IFRS
75,968,2 3.4
(3,4)
1,35,1
2006 BelgianGAAP
EmployeeBenefits
Elia Re Deferred taxes CapitalisationSoftware
Others 2006 IFRS
1.3 (1)
(1) Mainly relates to reversal goodwill Bel Engineering, inventory valuation, provisions
Evolution 2006 RABEvolution 2006 RAB
Regulated Asset Base 2006
Average RAB
3.371 3.444
3.4443.443
(87) (3) 141
50
2005 Depreciation Divestments Capex Change inWCR
2006(1)
(1) In 2006 Frozen Goodwill has been applied
1,3
(8,1)
(30,0)
46,4
(60,0) (50,4)
20
06
Inventory & trade
debtors <1 year
Deferred charges
and accrued
income
Total Change in
WCR
Trade creditors & others
Accrued charges
& deferred income
Surplus 2006
Working Capital Requirements 2006
Changes in Working Capital Requirements (EUR m) Changes in Working Capital Requirements (EUR m) (1)(1)
(1)(1) Based on Belgian GAAP accountsBased on Belgian GAAP accounts
41,529,8
93,898,3
84,188,5
18,318,5
116,5 117,2
144,0146,2
138,9137,8
2006 2005
Personnel Expenses
Evolution of Costs between 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)Evolution of Costs between 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)
Ancillary services(reserve energy)
Depreciation
Others
Financial charges
Taxes
Raw materials, Services & Other goods
Breakdown Costs
635,6 637,7
-0,6%
5,2%
4,8%
-0,8%
1,5%
-28,2%
12,06,4
9,413,7
12,411,6
62,6
29,4
2006 2005
Breakdown of Non – Tariff Revenues in 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)Breakdown of Non – Tariff Revenues in 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)
Non - Tariff Revenues
Others
Telecom & third party services
Fixed assets own construction capitalised
International revenues
63,2
94,3
-46,7%
113,3%
-6,5%
45,7%
467,3463,2
49,8 39,6
150,3134,8
28,529,4
2006 2005
Breakdown of Tariff Revenues in 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)Breakdown of Tariff Revenues in 2006 and 2005 (EUR m)
Tariff Revenues
Connection tariffs
Tariffs for ancillary services
Tariffs for grid use
677,2 685,7
-10,3%
13,3 14,1 Shortfall on costs
46,7 20,6 Surplus revenues (tariff & non-tariff)
Tariffs out of previous surpluses
60,0
-0,9%
Increase of recorded difference between approved budget and reality mainly due to international revenues
34,7
25,8%
3,2%
11,6
35,1
10,13,2
Surplus regulatedrevenues
Surplus international& other income
Shortfall in charges Adjustments to theregulated profit
Total Surplus
Deviation from Budget 2006
Access and balancing fees
Auctioning fees North Auctioning fees South 3rd party services ETSO fees to receive
Purchase ancillary services ETSO fees to pay
Reason
s
RAB adjustment
Sources of surplus over budget at the end of 2006 (EUR m)Sources of surplus over budget at the end of 2006 (EUR m)
60,0
In millions of EUR Surpluses 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Surplus 2003 134,6 25,4 36,4 36,4 36,4 134,6Bonus 2003 3,2 3,2 3,2Used -25,4 -39,6 -36,4 -101,4Total 2003 137,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 36,4 36,4
Surplus 2004 119,0 28,0 9,8 9,8 23,8 23,8 23,8 119,0Bonus 2004 3,5 3,5 3,5Used -28,0 -13,3 -41,3Total 2004 122,5 0,0 0,0 9,8 23,8 23,8 23,8 81,2
Surplus 2005 35,1 7,4 27,7 35,1Bonus 2005 2,3 2,3 2,3Surplus 2006 3,8 3,8 3,8Used -7,4 -7,4Totaal 2005 41,2 0,0 33,8 33,8
Surplus 2006 56,2 56,2 56,2Used 0,0Totaal 2006 56,2 56,2 56,2Total Surplus 357,7 Total to reverse 56,2 80,0 23,8 23,8 23,8 207,6
Overview treatment of surpluses
Overview of allocation and use of total surplusesOverview of allocation and use of total surpluses
About EUR 130m available for future tariff reductions beyond 2007
(1) To be allocated by CREG in decision B/M over 2006
(1)
883,5 883,5
996,3 996,0
200,0 250,0
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
31/ 12/ 2006 31/ 12/ 2005
Shareholders' loans Eurobonds Banks LT European Investment Bank
Standard & Poor’s rating:
Long Term: A-
Outlook: Stable
Elia benefits from a strong credit ratingElia benefits from a strong credit rating
Financial Debt Position
2.119,8 2.129,5
€ millions 2006 2005 Net debt 2.074,8 2.080,1Leverage (D/D+E) 61,9% 62,4%EBITDA / Gross interest 3,0 3,2Net debt / EBITDA 7,1 7,0Average cost of debt 4,8% 4,5%% Fixed of gross debt 74,7% 72,4%
Unused Amount Interest rateCredit lines (€ m)
European Investment Bank 85 Euribor + 5 bpCommercial Banks : Short term 570 To be negotiated
40,0
1,17 1,27 1,27 1,28
2,05
80,91%
89,60%
77,59%79,26%
89,90%
-0,4
0,1
0,6
1,1
1,6
2,1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
In E
UR
70,00%
75,00%
80,00%
85,00%
90,00%
Dividend Pay-out ratio
Elia’s dividend policy ensures a steady dividendElia’s dividend policy ensures a steady dividend
Dividend Policy
• Small increase in dividend to € 1,28 per share
• Pay-out ratio over 2005 Belgian Gaap result is 89,9% (80,8% under IFRS)
(1)
(1) Contains exceptional dividend of EUR 0,88
Agenda
Summary
Financials 2006
Outlook 2007
Regulatory and legal aspects
Highlights 2006
Evolution 2007 RAB as approved by CREGEvolution 2007 RAB as approved by CREG
Outlook 2007: RAB
Average RAB
3.495 3.537
3.476
(88) (5) 141
74
2006 Depreciation Divestm. &Decomm.
Capex Change inWCR
2007
(1)
(1) Approved budget 2007 start with RAB which is € 32m higher than ACTUAL RAB (€3.444m) as of year-end 2006
3.598
19%
4%
29%
Breakdown CAPEX Breakdown CAPEX
Outlook 2007: CAPEX
22%
10%
24%
Replacements
Driven by internal consumption
Driven by interconnections with neighbours
Driven by import levels & generation localisation
CAPEX 2005-2009 (IPO)€ 800 m
CAPEX 2007€ 141m
44% 48%
CREGAverage RAB 2007 3.537Reference equity (33%) 1.167Cost of equity 6,05%Equity reference remuneration (A) 70,6
Av. equity / Av. assets 34,29%Deviation on reference equity 1,29%Equity deviation remuneration 2,72%D-factor (B) 1,2
Over-depreciation (C) -8,2
Fair remuneration (A+B+C) 63,6
B/ M Decision CREG over 2006 -
Net profit as set by regulator 63,6
Determination of net profit 2007 by the regulator (Belgian GAAP)Determination of net profit 2007 by the regulator (Belgian GAAP)
Outlook 2007: Fair remuneration
(1)
(1) OLO of 3,4230%; Beta of 1,0330 and a risk premium of 2,54%(2) OLO of 3,4230%; deviation rate of 70bp and tax rate of 33.99%
(2)
• For the tariff 2007, the regulator accepted the principle that financial debt must not be deducted from the working capital requirements
• D-factor is calculated according to the CREG formula
• Decommissioning is applied for 2007 budget
• Elia filed proceeding at Court of Appeal in december 2006 against bonus malus decision 2005
Agenda
Summary
Financials 2006
Outlook 2007
Regulatory and legal aspects
Highlights 2006
Update on legislation
Electricity law of April 29, 1999 was adjusted on June 1st, 2005 and additionally adjusted on July 20th, 2006.
Most important changes are : the date for the introduction of multi-annual tariffs for the transmission system, which is fixed at 1 January 2008;
a European benchmark, on the basis of comparable system operators, designed to define fair returns and depreciations for the transmission system operator; an objective indexing formulae for the costs, directly controlled by the system operator, and set out in the Royal Decree following advice given by the regulator; the reform of the federal regulator into three departments (administration, market's technical operation and monitoring prices and accounts) headed by a chairman.
Update process R.D. multi-year tariffs
• Process was formally started up on August 16th, 2006 by Minister of Energy who sent letter to Regulator (CREG)
• Formal meetings between • CREG and Elia were held on September 18th and 22nd
• Cabinet, CREG & Elia on November 15th, 2006 and January 15th, 2007
• Discussion between cabinets of government expected to start soon.
Agenda
Summary
Financials 2006
Outlook 2007
Regulatory and legal aspects
Highlights 2006
1. Energy Consumption in Elia’s balancing zone
Total Energy consumption in Elia’s balancing zone increased to 89,4 TWh in 2006 from 86,9 TWh in 2005
This is mainly due to :
• Increase in industrial activity (2006 GDP growth of 3%)
• Larger take-off from residential clients
• More extreme temperatures
Severe winter months
Hot summer months
Injected energy Elia's balancing zone per month
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
Jan Feb Maart April Mei Juni Juli Aug Sept Okt Nov Dec
GWh/month
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
° C
Energy2005 Energy 2006 Av. temperature 2005 Av. temperature 2006
2. Energy Balance Elia net 2006 (in GWh)
Import
France: 10.636
Luxemburg: 2.479
Netherlands: 5.604
Total: 18.719
Net production
(= Gross production – ancillaries)
Power plants: 72.618
From DSO’s: 39
Local production: 6.480
Total: 79,137
Export
France: 1.981
Luxemburg: 1.697
Netherlands: 5.018
Total: 8.696
Consumption Elia net
Direct clients: 28.145
Distribution: 57.780
Pumps: 1.696
Total: 87.621
Net losses: 1.539
Net import: 10.023
3. Evolution of tariffs since 2001
Since 2001, decrease of transmission tariffs for all types of clientsSince 2001, decrease of transmission tariffs for all types of clients
Tariffs for use of the grid and tariffs for ancillary services:comparison 2001 - 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2001
2002
(Q
4)
2003
(Q
2 to
Q4)
2004
2005
2006
(*)
2007
(*)
2001
2002
(Q
4)
2003
(Q
2 to
Q4)
2004
2005
2006
(*)
2007
(*)
2001
2002
(Q
4)
2003
(Q
2 to
Q4)
2004
2005
2006
(*)
2007
(*)
2001
2002
(Q
4)
2003
(Q
2 to
Q4)
2004
2005
2006
(*)
2007
(*)
On the 380/220/150 kV network At transformer output to the 70/36/30 kVnetwork
On the 70/36/30 kV network At transformer output to medium voltage
€/M
Wh
Annual power System management Ancillary services Loss compensation
(*) Hypothesis: the concerned client is supposed not to have a local production
ETSO European comparison 2005 tariffs
Voltage level 400-220 kV Voltage level 400-110 kV
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Au
stri
a
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
at B
rita
in
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
No
rwa
y
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ro
ma
nia
Slo
vak
Re
p
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
Be
lgiu
m
De
nm
ark
Ea
st
De
nm
ark
We
st
Est
on
ia
Fin
lan
d
Infrastructure Losses System Services Non related TSO
Breakdown 2006 Energy bill
Transmission cost is a small part of client’s total energy costTransmission cost is a small part of client’s total energy cost
TransmissionEnergy Distribution Federal levies & taxes (direct & indirect)
Residential client3.500 kWh, 12 kVA1.300 kWh night
Midsize industrial client2-10 GWh, 500-2.500 kW
4.000h / year
Large industrial client50-70 GWh, 10.000kW
5.000-7.000h / year
Source : CREG (for residential clients) + computed by Elia based on 2005 breakdown (for industrial clients) (1) 18 out of the 23% relates to VAT (2) Not subject to VAT
77%76%57%
14%
5%
9%
5%15%23%(1)
10% 9%(2) (2)
Upgrade interconnection Monceau – Chooz (F) van 150 tot 220kV
• Phase shifting transformer Monceau: in service as of January 2007
• Optimalisation interconnection flow with France
• Adds to border capacity, mainly in the summer
• Investment of about € 10m
4. Investments 2006
Underground cable 150kV Koksijde – Slijkens and extension HV-station
Koksijde
• Reinforce reliability of network in coast region: closing of “coastal loop”
• Connection offshore wind farm up to 900 MW
• In service as of May 2006• Investment of about € 48m
Investments 2006
•Additional transformer 150kV Harenheide (Brussels) and Zaventem
• Strengthen electricity supply in North of Brussels and region Zaventem
• Underpins economical development of the region• Investment of about € 13m
•Additional transformer 150kV Eupen
• Reinforces reliability of network and underpins economical development of region Eupen
• Investment pays off optimal after putting in service underground cable 150kV Lixhe – Battice
• Investment of about € 4,5m
Investments 2006
5. Significant increase in energy exchanges
Total energy exchanges 2005-65,604 GWhNetherlands
5,018 GWh
1,981 GWh
France
10,636 GWh
Luxembourg
1,697 GWh
2,479GWh
Major increase in exchanges with F and NL;Major increase in exchanges with F and NL;Export +8,4% to 8,696 GWh & Import +31,9% to 18,719 GWh Export +8,4% to 8,696 GWh & Import +31,9% to 18,719 GWh
2006 2005Direction Exchanged Exchanged Change
F B 10,636 GWh 6,750 GWh 57,6%
B F 1,981 GWh 2,221 GWh -10,8%NL B 5,018 GWh 4,430 GWh 13,3%B NL 5,604 GWh 5,074 GWh 10,4%Lux B 2,479 GWh 2,366 GWh 4,8%B Lux 1,697 GWh 1,373 GWh 23,6%Total 27,415 GWh 22,214 GWh 23,4%
Belgium Max. (MW)
2006 North SouthNet offtake Elia-grid 06 North South Total 06 Total 05
Winter 1.344 3.300 12.343 10,89% 26,74% 37,62% 29,30%
Summer 1.257 2.300 11.145 11,28% 20,64% 31,92% 24,10%
Max. import cap. (MW) % of opening
Increase and Optimalization of the border capacity with neighbouring Increase and Optimalization of the border capacity with neighbouring countries France and the Netherlands: countries France and the Netherlands: in line with programmein line with programme
1. Reinforcement of Avelin – Avelgem
2. Release of capacity from historical contract
• as decided by French, Dutch and Belgian Regulators
3. Chooz (France) – Monceau (Belgium) 220 kV
• Will further optimize utilization of maximum border capacity
4. Phase shifter in 220 kV station Monceau
• Will further optimize utilization of maximum border capacity FR
5. Two Phase shifters in 380kV station Van Eyck (Kinrooi)
• Will further optimize utilization of maximum border capacity NL
6. Phase shifter in 380kV station Zandvliet
• Will further optimize utilization of maximum border capacity NL
7. Moulaine (France) – Aubange (Belgium) 220 kV
• Second circuit 220 kV will be installed
Border Optimalization and Capacity increases
Jan 2007
2010
Since Nov 2005
SinceJan 2006
2008
1Q 2007
Max capacity (winter) : 4.300 MW when all projects commissioned
Jan 2007
6. Belgian Power Exchange (Belpex)
• Order book opened on November 20th, 2006 at 6 PM
• First fixing on November 21st, 2006 at 11 AM with an exchanged volume of 24.098 MWh
• 20 diversified participants (suppliers, traders, producers) from 6 countries (NL,CH,UK,FR,BE,DE)
• In 2006 average daily volume was 13.312 MWh with the following average electricity prices :
- Belix €45,69/MWh- Belix peak (8am-20pm) €59,19/MWh- Belix off-peak (20pm-8am) €32,19/MWh
• Market coupling induced an average export volume of 2.438 MWh and an average import volume of 2.896MWh
Belpex volume growth since launch
Daily average power prices: Belpex, APX, Powernext
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
17-Sep 1-Oct 15-Oct 29-Oct 12-Nov 26-Nov 10-Dec 24-Dec 7-Jan 21-Jan 4-Feb
€/M
Wh
APX Belpex Powernext
FR-BE-NE TLC Congestion Overview
Border Belgian-French border
Belgian-
Dutch
border
Constrained Unconstrained
Constrained F ≠ B ≠ NL F = B ≠ NL
Unconstrained
F ≠ B = NL F = B = NL
2 %
16 %
17 %
65 %
Questions &
Answers
Investors Relations – Contact details Bert Maes
Tel: + 32 (0)2/546.72.39Mail: [email protected]: http://www.elia.be
Analyst meeting
February 16th, 2007
FY 2006 Consolidated results