Analyst Meeting FY2012 - listed companyptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20130301-PTT-analystMeetingFY2012-03.… · • Best CSR Corporate Governance Asia Recognition Awards 2012

Analyst Meeting FY2012

Contents

1

Highlights

Performance

2013 Outlook

Highlights Performance 2013 Outlook

HighlightsHighlights Performance 2013 Outlook

Operation • Gas sales volume surged 9% YoY, peak at AVG. 4,746 MMSCFD in Q4• Record high of oil sales volume at 23,035 Million liters • Better PTTEP’s performance as increased in sales volume and average selling

i d i M ’ i i i 6 366 MB


price, despite Montara’s impairment amounting 6,366 MB • Soften refining affiliates performance in accordance with stock loss• Improved petrochemical performance as sales volume rise, while soften spread

marginEMG i i 3 972 MB• EMG impairment amount 3,972 MB

Finance

PTT Group fund raised totally 241,000 MMTHB in 2012

EquityS f l PTTEP’ it l i i f 92 300 MB (3 000 MMUSD)Finance • Successful PTTEP’s capital raising of 92,300 MB (3,000 MMUSD)

Thai Baht Bond• PTT issued 45,000 MMTHB debentures • TOP issued 10,000 MMTHB debentures

1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง2. Gas resume

k d

TOP issued 10,000 MMTHB debentures• BCP issued 3,000 MMTHB debentures• IRPC issued 10,000 MMTHB • PTTEP issued hybrid bond 5,000 MMTHBUSD Bond

3. Stock gain and FX gainUSD Bond• PTT issued 1,100 MMUSD• PTTGC issued 1,000 MMUSD• PTTEP issued 500 MMUSD

PTT d b t d “Di t A ” th fi t ll b ti ith 8 b k

2

PTT debuted “Direct Approve” , the first collaboration with 8 banks

New financial governance through Finance & Accounting Group Alignment & Coordination Management Committee (FAAC)

Highlights (Cont.)

3

1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง 2. Gas resume

3. Stock gain and FX gain

Sustainability

• Thailand Energy Academy • Rayong Institute of Science and Technology & Rayong Science Academy • Trading Academy • Reforestation Program

Key Events

Update

• BCP restarted solar project from the great flood in 2012 • PTTGC invested in Natureworks and VENCOREX • PTTEP’s Bongkot South started up in June 2012 • TOP successfully started up PXMax in Q3/12 • IRPC PRP Project – Propylene Booster started up in Oct 2012 • BCP resumed operation of CDU no.3 unit from fire incident in Q3/12 in November • PTTEP AI holds 100% of Cove Energy shares. Cove has been delisted from

London AIM • PTTIH jointly invested in Nam Lik 1 Power project with capacity 64.7 MW • PTT Asahi Chemical, world first propane process, COD in January 2013 • Amalgamation PTTUT & IPT to Global Power Synergy Company (GPSC) as PTT

power flagship • SAR successfully delisted from SGX with 94.58 % stake on February 15, 2013 • PTT jointly invested with TSE in solar project with capacity 80 MW


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

30

60

90

120

150

94.1

130.0

11.46

104.8

112.3

16.44

106.3

93.1

15.77

31.52

30.63

30.63

Price Movement

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2012 2011

4

Q4

* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan


Dubai crude ($/BBL)

Coal ($/Ton)

FX (THB/USD)

LNG (JLC*) ($/MMBTU)

-3,314 -4,420

47,816* 45,229

30,558 36,168

17,755 18,824

13,445 8,865

2011 2012

Net Income Performance: 2012 vs 2011

5

104,666

• NG sales vol. increase 9% • Avg. GSP sales vol. increase 11% • Oil vol. increase 6% • Oil margin increase 15% • NGV loss increase 73% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 22%

• Sales vol. increase 8% • Soften spread margin

• Avg. selling price increase 17% • Sales vol. increase 4% Impairment on Montara assets 6,366 MMTHB

PTT

Others

Refinery

PTTEP

Petrochem

Unit : MMTHB

106,260

2%

* Including Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates = THB 570 million

Impairment on EMG 3,972 MMTHB

• Crude intake increase 1% • Avg. GIM decrease 32%, mainly from stock loss


2012 Accolades PTT is widely recognized among business communities both international and local

6

167th in 2012

• 171th in 2011 • 196th in 2010

DJSI Member 2012-2013

95th in 2012 • 128th in 2011 • 155th in 2010

Asian Excellence Recognition Awards 2012/2013 • Asia’s Best CEO • Asia’s Best CFO • Best Investor Relations • Best IR

Website/Promotion • Best Environmental

Responsibility • Best Investor Relations

Companies • Best CSR

Corporate Governance Asia Recognition Awards 2012

• Best CEO 2012 • Best CFO 2012 • Best Managed Company 2012 • Best Corporate Governance

2012 • Best Investor Relations 2012 • Best Corporate Social

Responsibility 2012 • Best Commitment to Strong

Dividend Policy 2012

• Best Bond Awards 2011 • Best Investor Relations Issuer 2012

• Best Fully-Integrated Oil and Gas Company, Asia

• Best Sustainable Oil and Gas Company, Asia

Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company

• 6th Overall Performance in Asia/Pacific (8th in 2011)

• Leadership Excellence • Financial Management

Excellence

The Asset’s Platinum Award for All-Round Excellence Investors’ Choice Award

SET Awards 2012 • Best Corporate Social

Responsibility Awards

• 6th Annual Best Financial Institution Awards 2012

• 2nd Annual Corporate Awards 2012 (Thailand)

The Asian Banker Annual Achievement Awards 2012

The Global Green Rankings List 2011

• Outstanding State Enterprise Award 2011-2012

• Best State Enterprise of the Year, Best of the Best

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/DJSI-logo.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.triplepundit.com/2009/09/dow-jones-sustainability-index/&usg=__5t4M8CHOSSWRLr75kV-60T-tPmE=&h=222&w=250&sz=7&hl=en&start=1&itbs=1&tbnid=alzGrAdKKDeCjM:&tbnh=99&tbnw=111&prev=/images?q=DJSI+logo&hl=en&gbv=2&tbs=isch:1

Contents

7

Highlights

Performance

2013 Outlook


26%

Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)

Product Prices Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume Key Activities

7.68 8.03 6.00 7.59

99.35 101.81 102.23 103.27

64.00 66.38 55.49

64.86

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Liquid (USD/BBL)

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

558

1,468

Unit: MMUSD

194 194 187 183

99 100 78 93

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

294

Liquid

Gas

Unit: KBOED

1%

292

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others

8

QoQ

• Sales volume increased from Bongkot South’s full production and ramp up in S1 and Vietnam 16-1

• Net income decreased mainly due to Montara’s impairment in Q4/12 (95MMUSD)

YoY

• Net income increased by 26% mainly due to higher selling price and sales volume, despite a crease production of Arthit North since Nov 1, 2011

449

17%

5%

265 276

1,846

27%

1%

20%

4%

2%

4%


Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEPHighlights Performance 2013 Outlook

Target Sales VolumeTarget Sales Volume Reserves and ResourcesReserves and Resources

Highlights Performance 2013 OutlookE & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others

Unit: KBOED3,986

Unit: MMBOE

Middle East & AfricaNorth America

13%

10%

276310

340 335 325339

50% 27%44%

50%

73%

901

1,786International

D ti

South East Asia

AustraliaMiddle East & Africa276 56%

50%

P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2C

3,986

Domestic

Thailand

65%50%23%

35%

50%

901

1,786 Liquid

Reserves Replacement Ratio * 0.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201720152012 2013 2014 2016 2017

KKD

77% 65%

P1 P1+P2 P1+P2+2CGas

Note : P1 = Proved, P2 = Probable, 2C = Contingent

p

Reserve Life Index (year) ** 8

9

Montara Zawtika

Algeria433a &416b

KKDLeismerExpansionCornerc

*Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5‐Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5‐Yr Production Volume**Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume

1,356 1,328

1,000 922

453 427

1,029 958

619 623

289 279

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas

NG Sales Volume

NG Customer Profile

2011

2012

2010 3,802

4,055 4,152 4,148

4,145

4,330 4,249

3,919

4,284

4,507 4,611

4,746

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unit: MMSCFD

EGAT (29%)

IPP (20%)

SPP (10%)

GSP (21%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Unit: MMSCFD

4,161 4,746 4,611

10

AVG.

4,040

4,161

4,537

9%

4,537

3%


GSP - Reference Product Prices

GSP Sales Volume

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

333 333 333 333

835 863 853 863

1,343 1,393 1,372 1,380

1,443 1,462 1,585 1,445

675 640 657 688

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Domestic LPG

Propane (11%)

NGL (11%)

Ethane (33%)

LPG (45%)

Unit : KTon

768

2,906

188

727

581

2,109

211

726

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

1,667 1,748

5,820

5%

FO 3.5%

6,468

11%


Key Activities

Gas Business Performance

11

QoQ

• NG volume increased from 4,611 mmcfd to 4,746 mmcfd mainly from IPP

• EBITDA decreased due to more loss in NGV

• Industry margin squeezed due to soften fuel oil prices and increased NG feed cost

YoY

• NG volume increased from 4,161 mmcfd to 4,537 mmcfd mainly from EGAT and industry

• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss in NGV and lower margin from GSP as capped LPG domestic sales

Gas BU EBITDA

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Unit: MMTHB

12,067

62,195

9,259

23%

16%

Others (9%)

TM (42%)

S&M (16%)

GSP (33%)

52,266


11

YoY

• Sales volume increased by 13%, despite feed cost

sharply increased

• No Government subsidy, while special discount

given to public transportation customers

• Control retail price of NGV remains

NGV EBIT

Unit : MMTHB

-10,557

-5,240 -5,052

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

73%

-18,288

4%

Vol. MMCFD 283 289 246 279

Retail price ฿/kg

10.50 10.50 8.50 10.50

Subsidy/Discount

- - 2.00 (2.00)* for public transportation


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Pipeline Capacity

(MMSCFD)

GSP

Capacity (MTA)

6.7 6.7

6,980

6.7

6,980

6.7

New Supply

PTTEP (Bongkot

South)

PTTEP (M9)

6.7

6,980

6.7

Gas Business Roadmap

12

Unit : MMSCFD

Power - EGAT

- IPP

- SPP

GSP

Industry NGV

59%

21%

14%

7%

6%

19%

17%

57%

6,980 4,380 5,580

Offshore Compressor

4th Onshore

LNG Phase#2



5%

413 564 1,251 1,840

2,493 2,624

11,973

13,603

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

10%

17%

0.73

0.84

Q3/12 Q4/12

15%

0.75

0.86

2011 2012

5,665

5,840

21,807 23,035

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

3%

Oil Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Oil BU - EBITDA


Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* Excluded non–oil business

13

QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from high seasonal

demand in Q4 • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better

aviation fuel and diesel margins YoY • Record high of sales volume and margins as a resumption

from the great flood • EBITDA increased due to higher sales volume and better

margin of diesel and aviation fuel • Income from non-oil business surged

Oil

Non-Oil

2,906 3,188

13,224

15,443


15%

6%


Oil Business Development

PTT Innovation Growing PTT brand internationally

14



Smart Fuel-up Technology

PTT life Station

The Crystal PTT

PTT Blue Society: PTT Blue Card

Regional Top Brand in ASEAN

Café Amazon

10th year anniversary

No.1 Brand in

Marketeer Magazine

Continue Growing Non-Oil Business

Introduced

“The Amazon’s

Embrace” Branch expansion

Domestic and International

536

1,435

5,997

4,280

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

29%

168%

0.03

0.08

0.10

0.06

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

166%

17,591 18,516

59,145 68,342

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

5%

International Trading Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*


Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* PTT only : Adjusted effect of FX

15

QoQ • Sales volume increased mainly from crude oil sold to

refineries and Naphtha trading • Higher margin of imported crude oil and condensate YoY • Sales volume rose from crude oil and refined products from

the out-out trading • Margin dropped due mainly from squeezed condensate

margin in relation to price structure

16%

40%



International Trading Business: Roadmap



BKK Singapore Dubai Guangzhou Jakarta Korea London

USA

Genève

Shanghai Japan

India

Australia S.Africa

16

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

84%

91% 89% 90%

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

106 108

106 109

GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)

Total Intake Key Activities

Refining Business Performance

Unit : MMTHB

657

Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

Unit : KBD

BCP IRPC

SPRC

TOP

BCP

SPRC

TOP

Aggregated Util.

17

QoQ • MKT GRM decreased mainly from middle distillate spreads

from resumptions of refineries after turnaround • Accounting GRM plummeted from stock loss • BZ & PX spread margin increased from the picking up

demand from US and China

YoY • Lower performance from the decrease in accounting GRM

due to stock loss in 2012 amid concerns on European debt crisis and global economic recovery

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

A/C GRM

A/C GIM

Mkt GRM

32% 37%

Dubai

706 689 698

Stock Gain 3.01 1.76

/Loss -1.47 -0.29

10.80

6.12 9.40

6.41

6.33

5.23 4.54

4.55

9.37

4.21

6.07

4.43


8% 1%

78% 43%


17,911 20,331

4,017

32,289

PXMax • Upgrading PX 38 KTA & BZ 82 KTA • COD: Sep 2012

Solvent Expansion (SAKC) • Increase capacity from 76 to 180 KTA • Expected COD: 2014

Phoenix update: PRP Project – Propylene Booster • Propylene 100 KTA expansion • COD: Oct 2012 From Licensee to Licensor • IRPC step up to become the Licensor of Green ABS

technology

CDU no.3 Fire Incident on July 4, 2012 • Resume normal operation in Q4/12 Solar Power Plant Phase II (Installed 50 MW) • 25MW: Located in Bamnet Narong Chaiyaphum • COD: Q1/13 • 25MW : Located at Bang Pa Han, Ayudhaya • COD: Q1/13

Refinery Project Update

18



421 438 435 427

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

507 609 603

550

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Petrochemical Business Performance

Spread Margins Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMTHB Unit : USD/Ton

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

37,217

PTT Phenol PTTGC

1%

HMC Polymers

2%

11,194 14,614

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

94% 90% 87% 89%

Unit : KTon

PTTGC

HMC Polymers

PTT Phenol

860 824

3,155

19

QoQ • Weaker performance due to lower utilization rate and stock

loss from PTTGC’s refinery unit, despite better spread margins

YoY • Sales volume increased from higher utilization rates in 2012,

from resumption of demand from the flood in 2011, despite commercial operations in several new expansion in 2011;

• PTTGC’s LDPE 300 KTA in Feb 2011 • PTT Phenol’s Bis-Phenol A 150 KTA in Q2/11 • HMC Polymers’s PDH 310 KTA in Feb 2011

• Spread margin decreased from lower demand due to concerns on global economic recession

Aggregated Util.

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha

8%

37,719

2,918


4% 20% 9%

23%

4%

Others


Debottleneck - PTTPE Cracker & Polymer Plants • Under study plant configurations • Expecting additional capacity of 15-20% Debottlenecking - PX capacity • Increases ARO II capacity

from 655 to 770 KTA • Expected COD: Q3/15 C4 Value Enhancement • Export mixed C4 to maximize value • Expected COD: Q1/14

Myriant • Build a semi-commercial plant • Expected COD: 2H/13

MEG expansion • 95 KTA expansion started commercial after the resolve of Map

Ta Phut court case • COD: Q4/12

PTT Asahi Chemical • Start commercial operation of PTTAC

• AN 200 KTA • MMA 70 KTA • AMS 160 KTA

• COD: Q1/13

Petrochemical Project Update

20



56.3

13.5*

190.3

108.2*

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (93.63%)

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMUSD

84 78

93 87

51 53 55 54

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

Unit : USD/Ton

Q3/12 Q4/12 2011 2012

3,249

Unit : KTon

2,861 Jembayan

Sebuku

21

QoQ • Global coal price soften on weaken demand • Sales volume decreased from lower production from

Sebuku mine YoY • Sales volume increased from Sebuku’s Northern

Lease starting June 2012, despite heavy rainfall and 2 new pit development in Jembayan in 1H/12

• Performance dropped due to the decreased average selling price despite the increase in sales volume

10,726 4%

43%

76%

Selling price

Cash Costs

7%

4%

10,830

7%

1%


0.2%


*unaudited

http://www.straitsasia.com/

http://www.straitsasia.com/

Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)



PTTUT + IPT = Global Power Synergy Company “GPSC”

Capacity 1,357 MW (electricity 1,038 MW and steam 319 MW)

PTT is to streamline PTT Group Power Business

22

23

Myanmar

Vietnam

Indonesia

Philippines

Laos

Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (30.10%)



Oversea Opportunities

• Invest in hydro power plant • Send power back to Thai’s Grid

• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business to import coal from Indonesia

• Invest in hydro and coal-fired power plant in order to transmit power back to Thailand • Invest in gas-fired power plant to sell electricity domestically

• Invest in gas- or coal-fired power plant • PTT Group may try power pool system in

Philippines

• Invest in coal-fired power plant • Synergy with PTTI’s coal business

for fuel supply

23

Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

106

109

2,428,126 2,793,833

2011 2012

211,373

227,842

2011 2012

106,260 104,666

2011 2012 37.24 36.64

PTT Consolidated Performance: 2012

24

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

2012

15%

8%

2%

73%

16%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

67%

23%

5% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

43%

35%

18%

8% -4%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA


601,337

653,139

419 ,385

506,036

254,030

328,822 127,094

143,323

643,713

731,664

392,303

437,382

365,830

462,274

12.1 12.3

0.4 0.4

1.3 1.4

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets L/T

Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

Unit: MMTHB

Cash & S/T

Invest

Increased assets :

• 4th Onshore pipeline

• Offshore compressor

• PTTEP Australasia

• Myanmar Zawtika

• Bongkot

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0

ICR

Strong Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec11 31 Dec 12

1,401,846

1,631,320

16%

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured

25


7.71 8.75

13.43

22.40

30.5734.14 34.82

18.3321.06

29.58

37.24 36.64

2.50 2.85 4.006.75

9.25 10.50 11.50

8.00 8.5010.25

13.00 13.00

25% 25%

32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5%

8

Dividend Policy & Historical Payments

26

PTT’s minimum payout ratio

PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income

UNIT : Baht / share


EPS

DPS

Dividend payout

Contents

27

Highlights

Performance

2013 Outlook


28

Economic Outlook : Challenges ahead


•Gradual economic growth but Fiscal Cliff concern weight down • Fiscal risk is not over even though the debt ceiling battle has been suspended

• Eurozone economy remains weak but expected to stop shrinking as financial

conditions improve •No more rate cut expected from ECB

• UK’s credit rating was downgraded

•Recent indicators support a strong economic recovery • 2013 economic reforms are being expedited and likely to support the economy

going forward

•Maintain the policy rate • Inflationary pressure • Energy policy • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%

28

109.8

116.2

122.5

117.3

107.3

94.4

99.2

108.6 111.2

106.3 107.3 106.3 107.6 111.73

109.80 108.23 106.35 106.08

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Dubai PRISM (PTT Group)

Market Outlook : Crude Oil

29 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (18.02.2013)

The world oil demand growth is forecasted to grow by 1.0 MMBPD to reach 90.8 MMBPD in 2013

North Korea conducted its third test of a nuclear device

Positive economic sentiments from major regions

Prolonged geopolitical risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Dubai crude oil price in 2013 is expected to be around 100-110 USD/BBL

Forecast Monthly Avg. Dubai Crude Oil

EU remained bearish

Moody’s cut UK’s perfect rating from AAA to Aa1

Italian election may result in a hung parliament

Refineries are going to a maintenance schedule together with supply rising from Non-OPEC

China started up nuclear power generator (1,080 MW)


Market Outlook : Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

30

Henry Hub price in 2013 is expected to be flat around 3-4 USD/MMBTU


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

ม.ค. 2012 ก.ค. 2012 ม.ค. 2013 ก.ค. 2013 ม.ค. 2014 ก.ค. 2014

USD/MMBTU

Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending February 7, 2013. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.

STEO Forecast Price

95% NYXEM Future lower confidence Interval

95% NYXEM Future upper confidence Interval

NYMEX Futures Price

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013, EIA and PTT

• The abundant of cheap natural gas delivered by shale revolution have underpinned a renaissance in petrochemical sector

• Shale and other unconventional gas supplies should keep US gas balances in surplus for the foreseeable future.

• EIA’s forecasts LNG export of 4.4 Bcf/d by 2027 • EIA does not expect rising Henry Hub above $4/MMBtu until after 2018

Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

Market Outlook : GRM

Refineries turnaround season in 1H/2013

China economic support the world growth

Net capacity added in 2013 around 640KBD

Prolong European debt crisis

31 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (25.02.2013)

Singapore GRM in 2013 is estimated to around 6-7 USD/BBL


-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Forecast

GO

Mogas

FO

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oct

-12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oct

-13

Y2013

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 480-580 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 510-610 USD/TON

• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 320-420 USD/TON

• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 600-700 USD/TON

Market Outlook : Petrochemical

Olefins prices and buying sentiment tend to increase after Chinese new year holidays

PX market is bullish supported by PTA

Schedule PX plant turnaround in Asia

32

Unit :USD/ton

Source: PRISM Estimated

Olefins Aromatics

Olefins and Aromatics spreads slightly improve

Additional capacity of both Olefins and Aromatics S/U across Asian region

Uncertain economic conditions resulting in the volatility of BZ and PX derivative demand

Spread


Spread

Naphtha

PX

BZ

Y2013

Gas 30%

Oil & Trading 14%

R&D, Others 3%

Opportunistic 43%

Coal 1%Power 3%

LNG 6%

62,164

33,808

34,631

25,333

36,011

25,449 29,522 30,41718,583

7,245

7,1588,245

16,952

12,573

6,456

4,0744,059

1,862

1,128

804

2013 201 201 2016 2017

Investment in Joint Venture and its subsidiaries

Head Office and others

Oil and International Trading

Natural Gas

Unit: MMTHB

PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 366bn ($12bn) during 2013-2017

CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years

By Business Unit

JV &

Investment in

Subsidiaries

53%

33

,

, ,

8,8

8 ,8

4th pipeline & extension

LPG import facility

• SAR tender offer

• M&A in coal, FLNG, power


PTTEP 43%

Gas 10%

Oil&Trading 5%

Other opportunities 15%

P&R** 25%

R & D 2%

PTT Group CAPEX 2013 – 2017 ~ THB 1 Trillion*

• Thailand 56% • SE Asia 21% • North America 16% • Australasia 4% • ME & Africa 3%

• Onshore Pipeline • LNG Terminal • NGV Stations • Offshore Spur Lines

• Coal • FLNG • Power

• Biochemical • Specialty

* Excluded M&A of Affiliates, ** PTTGC excludes new initiatives

LPG facilities

34


Thank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected]://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No

DisclaimerDisclaimer

p p jassurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected.

Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Ann al Registration Statement Form 56 1 nder “S pplemental Information on Petrole m E ploration Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Companycontain the terms proved reserves , probable reserves , and/or contingent resources . Unless stated otherwise, the Companyadopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/

http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

36

PTT Group Performance : 2012

% share

Unit : MMTHB 2011 2012 YoY 2011 2012 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 47,246 45,229 -4% 47,246 45,229 -4%

E&P - PTTEP 44,749 57,316 28% 65.29% 30,558 36,168 18%

Petro. Business 37,217 37,719 1% 17,755 18,824 6%

- PTTGC* 30,033 34,001 13% 48.89% 14,465 16,796 16%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK7,184 3,718 -48% 40-48% 3,290 2,028 -38%

Refining 32,289 20,331 -37% 13,445 8,865 -34%

- TOP 14,853 12,320 -17% 49.10% 7,514 6,391 -15%

- IRPC 3,941 -959 -124% 38.51% 1,443 -385 -127%

- SPRC 7,885 4,697 -40% 36.00% 2,960 1,668 -44%

- BCP 5,610 4,273 -24% 27.22% 1,528 1,191 -22%

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-5,958 -6,005 -1% 100% -5,959 -6,005 -1%

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 3,366 4,314 28% 20-100% 932 1,498 61%

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo1,867 279 -85% 33-100% 1,713 87 -95%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 113,530 113,954 37% 58,444 59,437 2%

Add Gain (Loss) on sales of investments in Associates570 0 n.m. 570 0 n.m.

PTT Conso. Net Income 161,346 159,183 -1% 106,260 104,666 -2%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

*PTTGC performance from Pro-Forma Statement

Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

106

108

686,025 732,886

Q3/12 Q4/12

56,309 53,313

Q3/12 Q4/12

36,054 22,712

Q3/12 Q4/12 12.62 7.95

PTT Consolidated Performance: Q4/2012

37

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

Q4/2012

7%

37%

72%

17%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

7 %

17%

3% 5% PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

PetChem

35%

38%

25%

10% -8%

PTT

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA

5%

38

PTT Group Performance : Q4/2012

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY Q4/11 Q4/12 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 7,612 7,845 3% 7,612 7,845 3%

E&P - PTTEP 15,150 13,768 -9% 65.29% 10,435 8,521 -18%

Petro. Business 4,635 11,194 142% 2,420 5,751 138%

- PTTGC 4,053 10,388 156% 48.89% 2,083 5,276 n.m.

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC

/ PTTME/PTTTANK582 806 38% 40-48% 337 475 41%

Refining 2,067 4,017 94% 1,051 2,323 121%

- TOP 1,862 1,925 3% 49.10% 1,064 1,582 49%

- IRPC -1,523 16 101% 38.51% -588 -1 100%

- SPRC 1,167 929 -20% 36.00% 447 455 2%

- BCP 561 1,147 104% 27.22% 128 287 n.m.

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-4,915 -1,506 69% 100% -4,916 -1,418 71%

Gas &

Utilities-TTM/PTTNGD/IPT/TP/DCAP/CHPP 1,889 2,553 35% 20-100% -125 353 n.m.

Oil & Oth.- PTTRB/PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/

/PTTCL/TLBC/ICT/EnCo-90 -2,205 n.m. 33-100% 1,113 -663 n.m.

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 18,736 27,821 37% 9,978 14,867 49%

PTT Conso. Net Income 26,348 35,666 35% 17,590 22,712 29%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

39

Free Cash flow

17,005 -3,175

Investing

2011 -160,281

2012 -180,576

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -112,448 -116,649

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -76,992 -86,492

Dividend/Interest Received 15,642 13,257

Others 13,517 9,308

Operating

2011 177,286

2012 177,401

Net Income 106,260 104,666

Changes in assets & liabilities -465 -25,134

Income Tax -42,073 -40,782

Non-Cash Adjustment 112,321 136,156

Interest-net 1,243 2,495

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

116,132 136,918

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

135,801 116,132

Cash In/(Out)

-19,669 20,786

Adjustment

8,856 -3,750

39

Financing -45,530 27,711

Repayment Loans -36,284 -122,434

Interest paid -18,541 -20,251

Dividend paid -41,102 -42,306

Received from share issue 1,887 37,413

Received from loans/Bonds 48,510 175,289

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011

40

Free Cash flow

57,362 -5,831

Financing -67,380 2,103

Repayment Loans -31,722 -35,043

Interest paid -12,628 -12,166

Dividend paid -32,786 -34,261

Received from share issue 1,698 0

Received from loans/Bonds 8,058 83,573

Investing

2011 -15,270

2012 -67,176

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -24,842 -20,460

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -32,910 -61,585

Dividend/Interest Received 30,588 29,882

Others 11,894 -15,013

Operating

2011 72,632

2012 61,345

Net Income 73,434 74,697

Changes in assets & liabilities 4,263 -3,380

Income Tax -9,655 -3,725

Non-Cash Adjustment 4,087 -7,694

Interest - net 503 1,447

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

51,341 47,642

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

61,311 51,341

Cash In/(Out)

-9,970 -3,699

Adjustment

48 29

40

Statements of Cash Flows for Year 2012 & 2011 (PTT Only)

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB

41

: Cost of debts ~ 4.86 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 94 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.84 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.56 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 85 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.11 years

Note : Data as of 31 Dec 2012 (THB/USD = 30.7775 THB/JPY = 0.3580) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

197,877 170,816 188,102255,860 229,606 221,201

68,30872,337

100,069

114,442 161,991215,507

31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12 31 Dec 10 31 Dec 11 31 Dec 12

266,185

(26%)

(74%)

(30%)

(70%)

243,153

288,171

(35%)

(65%)

370,302

(31%)

(69%)

391,597

(41%)

(59%)

(49%)

(51%)

436,708 USD

THB

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00016% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

42

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Independent Power (Thailand) Co., Ltd. IPT 20.00% PTT Utility Co., Ltd. PTTUT 40.00% B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. B.Grimm BIP 23.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Phenol Co., Ltd. PPCL 40.00% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 31 Dec 2012

International Investment

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%

PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%

Thailand’s projected energy demand

43

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Commercial Primary Energy Consumption

36%

34%

15%

13%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

Hydro/Import

KBD

25%

39%

17%

4%

14%

Renewable

2%

3,533

3,079

2,649

2,218 1,841

32%

38%

15%

12% 3%

28%

38%

16%

4%

14%

29%

39%

16%

3% 13%

1% Nuclear

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 1 Nov 2012

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

44 Source : PTT

Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 2% : GSP ~ 0% : Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 1%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Power

GSP

Industry

78%

21%

8%

2,635

14%

16%

15%

59% 63%

14%

NGV6%

6%

6,771MMscfd

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