Analytics for Homicides St. Louis City

Business Intelligence Predictions

Group D Members:Jenny BrunnertLamont DavisLucas MateckiJi Zhang

Objective

Our goal is to predict the homicide rate in the

St. Louis City area for 2013. We intend to use

data sets and statistical techniques as tools to

assist in our prediction.

Homicide Definition “The killing of one human being by another”

Justifiable Homicide Authorized by law and not punishable Death sentence or soldier carrying out duties

Excusable Homicide Killer was to at fault to some extent, though

punishment reduced Fatality due to a provoked fight

Criminal Homicide Not justifiable or excusable Murder or Manslaughter

Top 10 Most Dangerous Cities

Rank

City Violent Crime per 100,000 People

1 Flint, MI 2,337

2 Detroit, MI 2,137

3 St. Louis, Mo 1,857

4 Oakland, CA 1,683

5 Memphis, TN 1,584

6 Little Rock, AK

1,490

7 Birmingham, AL

1,483

8 Atlanta, GA 1,433

9 Baltimore, MD 1,417

10 Stockton, CA 1,408

Introduction According to the FBI 2011

data results, St. Louis is currently ranked the 3rd dangerous city in America when referring to crime.

Violent crimes per 1,000: 18.6

Population: 320,454 58th largest city in U.S. 79 Neighborhoods Murder, Robbery and

Aggravated Assault ranked highest in nation

2010 Compared to 2013

Total Crime Incidents: 34,935Property Crime: 27, 324Violent Crime: 6,205

Total Crime Incidents: 29,947 Property Crime: 22,336Violent Crime: 7,104

Homicide in 2013

Analysis Approach

Collecting data

Find the factors

Predict the

Homicide in 2013

Two Ways of

Analysis

Trend

Data Analysis

What factors might impact the rates? Population Sex Race Age Unemployment Education Gang Activity Gun accessibility Drug Trade

Population From 1980 to 2008…

57.7% of homicides occurred in cities with a population of 100,000 or more

In cities with 1 million or more, the homicide rate decreased from 35.5 homicides per 100,000 residents (1991) to 11.9 per 100,000 residents (2008) in the U.S.

Sex From 1980 to 2008…

77% of homicide victims are male For males, the homicide rate (11.6 per 100,000) is

3 times higher than that of females (3.4 per 100,000)

Race From 1980 to 2008

Data shows that African-American has seemingly higher rates The victim rate (27.8 per 100,000) The homicide rate (19.6 per 100,000)

Age From 1980 to 2008…

53.2% of murder victims and 65.5% of offenders were between age 18-34

The homicide rate for ages 18 – 24 reaches 17.1 victims per every 100,000, while the rate per every 100,000 offenders peaks at 29.3

Unemployment A study of homicide in eight major cities in the

United States shows that when employment declined, homicide rates increased, and when employment increased homicide rates dropped.

Education Connected with murder, assault, and motor

vehicle theft. Research shows that education reduces crime.

“By raising earnings, education raises the opportunity cost of crime and the cost of time spent in prison. ”

Unpredictable Factors Gang Activity (from 1993 through 2003) Gangs are often responsible for the firearms

violent incidents, especially those incidents involving youths.

Gun accessibility (2009) According to FBI report, firearms were used in

67.1% of the homicides. Research shows that firearm availability is positively associated with homicide rates.

Drug Trade “Drug markets are often associated with

violent offenses, particularly homicides. ” The competition for customers and drug markets can cause homicide.

Prediction from data

Rank Neighborhood Year 2013

1 Baden 9

2 JeffVanderLou 9

3 College Hill 5

4 Dutchtown 5

5 Gravois Park 5

6 Well/Goodfellow 5

7 Carondelet 4

8 Hamilton Heights 4

9 North Point 4

10 Penrose 4

Total Murder #: 118

Prediction from data A combination of black people, male rate, and

high school graduation rate has the smallest standard error.

Prediction from data

Total Murder #: 82

Y= 0.000856759Xa+3.278571742Xb-3.591220139Xc

Prediction from research Downward trend in crime from 2010 Looking at crime rate statistics, higher reports

of homicides will fall in downtown cities of St. Louis Baden Walnut Park East

While several factors play a significant role to affect the numbers of homicides

Budget cuts create lower number of police force and security

Conclusion

Any Questions?

Sources http://

nationalparalegal.edu/public_documents/courseware_asp_files/criminalLaw/homicide/Definition.asp

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-25-most-dangerous-cities-in-america.html?page=all

http://247wallst.com/2012/06/11/the-most-dangerous-cities-in-america-2/3/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neighborhoods_of_St._Louis

http://www.cityrating.com/crime-statistics/missouri/st-louis.html#.UT0e_n5QH60

http://maps.stlouisco.com/police/index.html http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.p

df http://

bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf

http://www.rutgerscps.org/docs/murderrisks.pdf