Analyzing Determinants of Foreclosure of Middle-Income Borrowers of Color in the Atlanta, GA Metropolitan Area

8/13/2019 Analyzing Determinants of Foreclosure of Middle-Income Borrowers of Color in the Atlanta, GA Metropolitan Area

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GEORGE

MASON

UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICYRESEARCH PAPERNO.2013-01

ANALYZING DETERMINANTS OF FORECLOSURE OF MIDDLE-INCOMEBORROWERS OF COLOR IN THE ATLANTA, GA METROPOLITAN AREA

Katrin B. Anacker

George Mason University - School of Public Policy

James H. Carr

Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae)

Archana Pradhan

National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC)

July 14, 2012


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3/36Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2106055

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). P

(C B 2008; K 2009). T

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1991; C 1997; D 1982; F S 1994; F 1957; K 1971; L

2007; L 1987), .

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.

N,

(B . 2010; G . 2009). T

(M P 2008).

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4/36Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2106055

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1993 1998 ()

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(FFIEC). T

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2000 2008. T

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.

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(B . 2010). LPS (..,

J 2004 D 2007).

1L D V M LPS/HMDA D S U S

F 1:

( )

(REO)

0:

LPS (2004 2008)

B B HMDA (2004 2007)

L FICO FICO


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7

NH NH HMDA (2004 2007)

H H L HMDA (2004 2007)

A A B/A A HMDA (2004 2007)

I M LPS (2004 2008)

B

M LPS (2004 2008)

A

M LPS (2004 2008)

R

M LPS (2004 2008)

P

M LPS (2004 2008)

P R

(PTI)

LPS (2004 2008)

L R

(LTV)

LPS (2004 2008)

G

(GSE)

M F

M, F M, G M

LPS (2004 2008)

P M

LPS (2004 2008)

N/P M LPS (2004 2008)

H P I (HPI)

H

T A J

C (A H

S R)

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C

M U.S. C (2000)

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C

P

U.S. C (2000)

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;

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M 50

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;

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50 80

U.S. C (2000)

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;

M

80 120

U.S. C (2000)


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;

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U.S. C (2000)

C

C U.S. C (2000)

(1) /, (2) ,

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1996) , /, ,

. I

,

F (H 1992). M

HMDA , ,

(M C 1995). I , LPS

FICO () , /.

T, HMDA LPS

HMDA C

C LPS (B . 2006 2010;

C . 2008; L R 2008.

T LPS , .., , (I 2008). T,

, . U HMDA

, ,

, .

: , HMDA 80

(A ., 2007); , LPS

(I 2008). U HMDA ,

.

T A, GA (MSA). T O

M B (OMB)

A, GA MSA: B, B, B, C, C, C, C, C, DK, D,

F, F, F, G, H, N, P, R, S, .


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O . A

(V, 2005 . 268). T

:

(/) = ( , ,

, )

I , 0

1 (

(REO) ). T

T 1 . T

1 (0).

T HMDA / (..,

H , B, H). A , H

1 A A H

1 (G . 2007; I S 2005; L R 2009; L

B 1999). .

T C

, ;

; 50

; (..,

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80 ), (..,

80 120 ), (..,

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L R 2009). P O O,

. T

2T AMI ( S 2010).


11/36

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(L

R 2009).

T LPS (1) , (2)

, (3) , ( T1 ). I , FICO

. B I 1.

L FICO S (.., FICO 640 )

H FICO S (.., FICO 720 )

(L R 2009). M FICO

S (.., FICO 640 720 ).

, LPS , () (

); () ( ); ()

( ); ()

( ); ()

( ); () ; () . B

, 1, (D

. 2009; G H 2000; S 2002; S . 2006).

, ()

(GSE; ..,

F M, F M, G M), ()

, () .

GSE 1, (I S 2005).

P S 1,

,

(I, 2009 . 408). N

S/P 1 (..,

),

1 (..,

).


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I HMDA, 2000 C, LPS ,

H P I (HPI),

A H S R T A JC.

T

2006

, . F , HPI

2004 2003 2001.

HPI

1, I : A

2003, , C,

N, A , F,

(I, 2008 . 66; S . 2006; L R 2009).

( L R 2008).

.

.1

O T 2 3 . T

, , T 4, . I T 2

,

. I T 3 ,

.

,

D 2008

$116,564, $110,896

( T 3). N , FICO (4.53%)

FICO (3.83%) FICO

(0.61%) ( T 2). T 3 FICO

701.99, FICO 648.54. I FICO

, 640 720 , ,


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12

C B (2008) K (2009),

.

O , T 2, , 5.82% A

A 4.65% H, ,

(B . 2010; G . 2007; I S 2005; L B 1999).

I ,

(12.55% , 7.86%

, 3.57% ), L R

(2009) ( T 2).

(LTV) (102.86 79.46), (PTI) (0.28

0.23), (0.77 0.69) ( T 3).

, 4.80

,

(5.99%), (1.09%). O

GSE I S (2005).

I , , ,

(10.31%), (4.14%), (3.32%)

, (1.82%) ,

(C B

2008; K 2009; L R 2009 ) ( T 2). T 3

H P I (HPI) (106.8

107.9), (1982 1983),

(67.69% 69.65%). T

.


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13

2D S N P L F

F ( = 478,506)

/

I

L FICO 174,057 95.47% 8,255 4.53% 182,312

M FICO 128,369 96.17% 5,118 3.83% 133,487

H FICO 161,722 99.39% 985 0.61% 162,707

NH 322,244 98.26% 5,692 1.74% 327,936

H 8,109 95.35% 395 4.65% 8,504

A A 133,795 94.18% 8,271 5.82% 142,066

I

()

105,713 96.43% 3,917 3.57% 109,630

B

()

4,580 87.45% 657 12.55% 5,237

A

()

283,330 98.08% 5,532 1.92% 288,862

R

()

234,628 97.51% 5,980 2.49% 240,608

P

()

32,689 92.14% 2,787 7.86% 35,476

P

L

O 2004

()

127,223 97.88% 2,751 2.12% 129,974

O 2005

()

128,977 96.78% 4,289 3.22% 133,266

O 2006

()

115,257 95.98% 4,831 4.02% 120,088

O 2007

()

92,691 97.39% 2,488 2.06% 95,179


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14

G

(GSE)

243,527 98.91% 2,689 1.09% 246,216

P 165,891 95.20% 8,366 4.80% 174,257

N/P 48,202 94.01% 3,072 5.99% 51,274

H P I

(HPI)

M

C

P

C

M

97,613 94.60% 5,573 5.40% 103,186

L

9,615 89.69% 1,105 10.31% 10,721

M

56,087 95.86% 2,424 4.14% 58,511

M

218,339 96.68% 7,489 3.32% 225,828

U

180,106 98.18% 3,340 1.82% 183,446

C () N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A


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3 M C L F ( = 478,506)

I $116,564 $110,896

FICO 701.99 648.54

L (LTV) 79.46 102.86

P (PTI) 0.23 0.28

C 0.69 0.77

H P I (HPI) 107.9 106.8

1983 1982

P 69.65 67.69

T 464,148 14,358

.2

L (..,

0 1) (V,

2005). R ..,

. O

, . A 1.0

, 1.0 , 1.0 . F

, A A H

1.3 (0.7), 30 () A A

H (B . 2006). T

. A V, I

,

(2005 . 295).


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,

M 7. S,

:

M 1: ( /); M 2: ; M 3: (

, , , ,

, , );

M 4: , , ; M 5: , ,

, ;

M 6: , , , , ;

M 7: , , , , , .

T .1% . B

M 7 ( T 4 M 1

7).


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17

O R E L R M

1 2 3

I 1.030*** 1.043*** 1.046*** 1.044*** 1.054*** 1.024** 1.024**

L FICO 7.270*** 5.381*** 5.511*** 5.256*** 4.619*** 4.617***

M FICO

3

6.457*** 5.570*** 5.729*** 5.527*** 5.206*** 5.218***

H 3.050*** 2.576*** 2.427*** 2.269*** 2.106*** 2.111*** 2.592***

A A 3.499*** 2.757*** 1.813*** 1.775*** 1.595*** 1.603*** 1.521***

I

()

1.000 1.003 1.035 0.973 0.975

B

()

1.725*** 1.584*** 1.664*** 1.398*** 1.401***

H 1.415*** 1.369*** 1.303*** 1.243*** 1.237***

F

0.924*** 0.935** 0.931*** 0.909*** 0.892***

A

()

1.950*** 2.052*** 2.055*** 1.430*** 1.435***

R

()

0.929*** 0.924*** 0.940** 0.890*** 0.891***P

()

1.351*** 1.325*** 1.324*** 1.085** 1.078**

P

1.044*** 1.044*** 1.043*** 1.038*** 1.037***

L

1.869*** 1.876*** 1.868*** 1.808*** 1.814***

O

2005 (. 2004)

()

1.208*** 1.301*** 1.364*** 1.359***

O

2006 (. 2004)()

1.325*** 1.350*** 1.399*** 1.403***

O

2007 (. 2004)

()

1.440*** 1.328*** 1.422*** 1.443***

3 : FICO


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1. I2. L 3. P 4. P 5. H P I (HPI)6. C

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S 2005; L B 1999). I ,

( I M R M ( ))

(F . 2008; F . 2008; L

R 2009). T :

2007, (S 2008),

44.3

, 40.3 2006 35.9 2005. T

.

,

GSE, (I 2009; I S 2005;

P . ). I ,

, ,

(.., ), , ,

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( )

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H, (1)

( ; 1.024 ), (2)


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( ; 0.975 ), (3) (

; 0.891), (4) ( ;

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I, B B * M I B

34.5 ,

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( 1% ) .

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(2000 2006) ,

(N C R C 2010). F

.

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H , , ,

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. O (A 1973;

B 1971; G 1992; P 1995; 1986 1998),

( FICO ) () ( LTV ). N,

.

O ,

(20042008) (A, GA). M 2008

. A,


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2012 2013

(C 2011).

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T

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M 2009. I

2012. T T $45.6 T A R

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, 744,555 (U.S. D T, 2011). S

18,000 2010,

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H, . T


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, (. 172). A ,

, ,

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. M , L (2011)

,

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C 13 . T

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(. 1)

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; () , ,

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( 80 HUD

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24/36

23

. I J 2011, N A C B A

.

S 2007, 10.5 .

, . A ,

. N

. H,

(S . 2011).


25/36

24

A, K. B., & C, J. H. (2011). A A

A H , DC .

, 11, 195220.

A, K. (1973). T . (I O. A, & A. R (E.), D

(. 333). P, NJ: P U P.)

A, R. B., B, K. P., & C, G. B. (2007). T 2006 HMDA . B,

D, A73A109.

B, N. (2011, M) S N B, S I G T A R

P, H C F S, I,

H C O. R O 21, 2011, H C

F S, : ://..///030211.

B, V., & L, M. (2000). R .

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B, J. A., C, G. B., G, S. A., & H, T. H. (1996). M FHA

. C: A D , 2, 923.

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FHA . C: A D , 2,

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.

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.

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. , 29, 393410.

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C, J. H., & LS, K. (2011). F .

, 44, 730.

C, L. (2011). : . R O 21 2011, CNN M

:

://../2011/03/03///.?=&=

S

C, S. M. (1997). B : B .

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, C C C, 20052008.R O 21, 2011,

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. (I J. H. C, & N. K. K (E.), : A

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Documents

Analyzing Determinants of Foreclosure of Middle-Income Borrowers of Color in the Atlanta, GA Metropolitan Area