ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY:ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE

CHALLENGINGCHALLENGING

Scott GoldsmithInstitute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

3rd Anchorage School District Conference on Personalizing Education

April 21 and 22, 2006Anchorage, Alaska

Alaska in the 21st Century

Percent high

school graduate or higher

Percent bachelor's degree or

higher

Median household

income (dollars)

Percent of people all ages in poverty

Percent of related children under 18 in poverty

Mean travel time to work

(minutes)

Lincoln, NE MSA 94.3% 33.5% $40,150 12.1% 15.6% 15.8

Madison, WI MSA 93.7% 41.8% $50,661 10.3% 8.8% 18.9

Boulder--Longmont, CO PMSA 93.6% 55.2% $61,493 10.2% 9.8% 20.9

Provo--Orem, UT MSA 92.1% 31.3% $41,578 13.9% 11.8% 19.1

Eugene--Springfield, OR MSA 91.4% 24.6% $33,360 15.7% 18.3% 21.2

Seattle--Bellevue--Everett, WA PMSA 91.2% 37.7% $54,343 8.7% 10.2% 25.8

Tallahassee, FL MSA 91.1% 37.6% $37,110 14.7% 14.8% 20.8

Anchorage, AK MSA 91.0% 31.5% $60,728 5.9% 6.9% 18.5

Tacoma, WA PMSA 91.0% 23.0% $44,615 9.8% 12.7% 28.0

Ann Arbor, MI PMSA 90.8% 36.0% $53,516 9.9% 10.0% 25.0

ACS 2002, 165 Large Metro Areas

THE ENDURING MYTH

ECONOMIC DRIVERS FOR ALASKA

New Resources

6%

Federal Govt33%

Oil & Gas33%

Personal Assets

20%

Traditional Resources

8%

Shares of Personal Income in 2000

Economic Trends to WatchEconomic Trends to Watch

• Petroleum is the Future

• Slowdown in Federal $

• More Urban

•Lower Wage

• More Non-Wage Income

Alaska in the 21st Century

Alaska in the 21st Century

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

AgricultureTimberGasSeafoodMiningOil

ALASKA NATURAL RESOURCE PRODUCTIONMARKET VALUE (Billion 2003 $)

Alaska in the 21st Century

Grants$1,58653.0%

Procurement$691

23.1%

Transfers$480

16.0%

Wages$2357.8%

Increase in Federal Spending in Alaska1997 to 2004 (Million $)

Federal Aid Per Capita:Highest in the US

$0$500

$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000

Alaska

Wyoming

New York

North DakotaMontana

US Average

1990 GROWTH 1990 TO 1995 GROWTH 1995 TO 1999 GROWTH 1999 TO 2003

THE MAILBOX ECONOMY

NEW RESOURCES

Alaska in the 21st Century

Mov

e It

Dig

It U

p

Har

vest

It

Unc

le S

am

Serv

ices

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Trad

e

Stat

e/Lo

cal-10

01020304050

-1001020304050

Tho

usan

d

Dig It Up = Oil and Mining, Harvest It = Seafood and TimberFederal = Military and Civilian, Move It = Tourism and Air Cargo

Alaska Job Growth1993 to 2003

Shares of New Jobs 1990-2000 by Shares of New Jobs 1990-2000 by Sex ????????Sex ????????

Anchorage at 90

44.0%

56.0%

Alaska in the 21st Century

75-85 85-95 95-050

10

20

30

40

50

60Jo

bs A

dded

(000

) UrbanRural

Urban=Railbelt + Juneau

Alaska W&S Jobs:Past Growth Pattern

Alaska in the 21st Century

Distribution of Anchorage Wage Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150

Annual Wage (000$)

Num

ber o

f Wor

kers

(000

)

1980 2000

Full time workers aged 25 to 55

Alaska in the 21st Century

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

200060%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Net Labor and Proprietor Income by Place of Residence

Alaska Household IncomeShare from Wages

Anchorage: THE BEGINNINGAnchorage: THE BEGINNING

Anchorage at 90

Anchorage: TODAYAnchorage: TODAY

Anchorage at 90

Where are the Jobs?

PRIVATE SERVICES

54%

GOVT16%

Military5%

Self Employed

18%GOODS

PRODUCING7%

Private Service Economy

Trade22%

Professional17%

Health17%

Leisure15%

Transport10%

Finance8%

Other Services6%

Information5%

Anchorage/Matsu Population Anchorage/Matsu Population GrowthGrowth

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102015

20202025

20300

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Matsu Anch

Insti tu te of Socia l and Economic Research

Anchorage / Matsu Population (000)

Alaska in the 21st Century

Matsu Growth Driver: CommutersMatsu Growth Driver: Commuters

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

5

10

15

20

Com

mut

ers

(000

)

20%21%22%23%24%25%26%

Com

mut

er S

hare

%

Commuters Commuting Share

Matsu Commuter Population

Alaska in the 21st Century

Commuters to Anchorage Earn MoreCommuters to Anchorage Earn MoreMatsu Worker Average Annual Wage by Place of Work

Matsu Anchorage North Slope

Elsewhere including

out-of-state Construction $34,923 $48,512 $67,655 $57,112

Federal civilian and military $35,630 $45,623 $35,242

Forestry, fishing, agriculture, mining $36,739 $54,275 $62,145 $70,783

Information, finance and insurance, real estate

$38,513 $46,347

Manufacturing $31,952 $48,956 $43,000 Self-employed (part) and unpaid family workers

$23,723 $29,098 $13,515

Services $30,059 $37,251 $51,585 $43,232 State and local government $34,047 $45,587 $46,672 $40,337

Utilities, transportation, and Warehousing

$29,690 $58,221 $79,594 $74,889

Wholesale and retail trade $24,314 $37,579 $42,052 $51,100

Source: U.S. Census

Alaska in the 21st Century

Selected Characteristics of the RegionSelected Characteristics of the RegionANCH MATSU

Extra Females 65+ 1,706 6

White 72% 88%Owner Occupied 60% 79%

College + 29% 18%“Born in the USA” 90% 96%

In Labor Force 74% 66%Children<6, Parents Work 61% 53%

Median HH Income (000$) $55.5 $51.2Families with Kids<5 in Poverty 11% 17%

Alaska in the 21st Century

POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTIONSPOPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTIONS

WHITE NATIVE OTHER

ANCHORAGE<20 64% 14% 22%40+ 79% 8% 13%

MATSU<20 83% 12% 5%40+ 92% 5% 3%

Alaska in the 21st Century

Groups of Interest: Groups of Interest:

How Are They Doing?How Are They Doing?

Alaska in the 21st Century

• Workers

• Women

• Families

• Other Households

• Low Income

• Alaska Natives

• Other Minorities

• Children

• Young Adults

• Baby Boomers

• Seniors

• Cheechakos

• Sourdoughs

• Military

Some Challenges Using the CensusSome Challenges Using the Census

Anchorage at 90

•Small Sample Size

•Self Reporting of Information

•Definitional Quicksand

•A Decade Can Mask Lots of Change

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Sha

re o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Source: US CensusNote: Line represents US as a whole.

Alaska Age Distribution in 2000

Alaska in the 21st Century

ANCHORAGE VS. MATSUANCHORAGE VS. MATSU

Alaska in the 21st Century

ANCHORAGE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN 2000

0.00%

0.25%

0.50%

0.75%

1.00%

1.25%

1.50%

1.75%

2.00%0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Anchorage MATSU

Alaska in the 21st Century

Alaska Population Change 1990-2005

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85+

Age

Num

ber

Source: Alaska Dept of Labor

INTERSTATE MOVEMENTINTERSTATE MOVEMENT

1995-20001995-2000

Alaska in the 21st Century

OTHER STATES 31,385

ABROAD 4,755

OTHER STATES 52,105

ABROAD ???

INTRASTATE MOVEMENTINTRASTATE MOVEMENT

1995-20001995-2000

Alaska in the 21st Century

11,413 IN FROM

25% Remote Rural Alaska

19% Matsu

16% Frbks

13% Kenai Peninsula

27% Other

42% Matsu

17% Kenai Peninsula

12% Remote Rural

11% Frbks

18% Other

12,222 OUT TO

Gross Migration: Who Came and Gross Migration: Who Came and Went 1995 to 2000?Went 1995 to 2000?

•Overall•35% more left

•Race•52% more Whites left•60% more Asians arrived

•Income•Movers had lower incomes

•Household Type•61% more Married Couples Left

•Education•More folks in the “middle” left

•Age•Baby boomers & their kids left

Alaska in the 21st Century

Recent Immigrants Are DifferentRecent Immigrants Are Different

Alaska in the 21st Century

A Measure of DiversityA Measure of Diversity

Alaska in the 21st Century

Racial Composition of Anchorage Racial Composition of Anchorage Civilian PopulationCivilian Population

Share Growth

in 2000 from 1990

• TOTAL 19%

• White 73.3% +4%• Ak Native 10% ???• Asian 5.2% +27%• Black 5.2% +20%• Mixed 5% na• Pacific Islander 1.3% 415%Alaska in the 21st Century

Age Distribution of Anchorage Age Distribution of Anchorage Population in 2000 Population in 2000

<10 Boomer

(36-54)

•White 15% 46% •Asian 17% 40%•Black 19% 37%•Ak Native 25% 31%•Pacific Islander 27% 26%

Alaska in the 21st Century

Racial Diversity in the SchoolsRacial Diversity in the Schools

Alaska in the 21st Century

CHILDRENCHILDREN

Alaska in the 21st Century

Share of Households with Children Share of Households with Children in 2000in 2000

• White 39%• All HH 42% • Asian 51%• Black 53%• Ak Native 48%• Pacific Islands 69%

Alaska in the 21st Century

Share of Children Living in Share of Children Living in Different HH Types by Race: 2000Different HH Types by Race: 2000

Anchorage at 90

Married Couple 76 77 50 45 75 70 72

Single Woman, no other Adult Present 10 9 29 22 na 14 13Single Woman, other Adult Present 4 9 17 16 na 7 9.4

Single Man, no other Adult Present 3.5 2 1.5 2.3 na 3 1.8Single Man, other Adult Present 6 2 3 12 na 6 4.2

Families with ChildrenFamilies with ChildrenAll Families Female no Husband%

•All 36,765 7,839 21%

•White 27,284 4,623 17%•Black 2,613 946 36%• Native 2,342 1,089 46%•Asian 1,898 338 18%•Pacific Is 343 90 26%•Other 905 233 26%•2+ Races 1,483 520 35%

Alaska in the 21st Century

Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 Below Poverty Threshold in 2000 ($17,500 for Family of 4($17,500 for Family of 4): ):

Total Persons ChildrenTotal Persons Children

•White 4% 5.8%•All HH 5% 9.3%•Asian 10% 21.3%*•Black 11% 13.8•Pacific Islander 14% 21.3%*•Ak Native 9% 16.3%

•US Total 12.4% 16.6%

Alaska in the 21st Century

ALASKA SENIORS: Preliminary Look

1999 Census Bureau Poverty Threshold (used for 2000 Census)

Persons in Family

Unit Under 65 65 and

Over All

Households

1 $8,667 $7,990 2 $11,156 $10,070 3 $13,290 4 $17,029 5 $20,127 6 $22,727 7 $25,914 8 $28,967

9+ $34,417 Source: US Census Note: Persons are all adults. Thresholds for households with children are slightly higher.

Alaska NativesAlaska Natives

Alaska in the 21st Century

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Age

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%S

hare

of P

opul

atio

n

Source: US CensusNote: Line represents Alaska. Native includes Natives of mixed race.

Alaska Native Age Distribution in 2000

Alaska in the 21st Century

Native Women Outnumber Men in Native Women Outnumber Men in Anchorage in 2000Anchorage in 2000

Alaska in the 21st Century

Real Earnings of Native WomenReal Earnings of Native Women

Alaska in the 21st Century

Native Household Composition: Native Household Composition: Urban vs RuralUrban vs Rural

Alaska in the 21st Century

SeniorsSeniors

Alaska in the 21st Century

Alaska Senior RankingsAlaska Senior Rankings

• #50 Share of Population

• #2 Growth Rate in Seniors

• #1 Baby Boomer Share of Population

Alaska in the 21st Century

ALASKA SENIORS

1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

% In

crea

se

AlaskaUS

Growth of Senior Population 65+:Alaska vs. US

Alaska Domestic Civilian Net Migration Rate: 65+ Population

- 14

- 12

- 10

- 8

- 6

- 4

- 2

0

1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-00

Time Period

Rat

e (%

)

Source: Census of Population, IPUMS, ISER.

Alaska in the 21st Century

Alaska in the 21st Century

Median Income 2000: Senior Headed HHMedian Income 2000: Senior Headed HH

•All US HH over 65 $26,600

•All Anchorage HH over 65 $45,000

•Anchorage Married Couples over 65 $67,700

•Anchorage Non-Family HH over 65 $21,600

Alaska in the 21st Century

Median HH Income in 2000Median HH Income in 2000

•White $61,800•All HH $57,000•Asian $47,000•Black $43,000•Pacific Islander $36,600•Ak Native $36,000

•US Total $41,800

Alaska in the 21st Century

The Permanent Fund’s Solution

The Permanent Fund Dividend

Who was in the Bottom 20% of Who was in the Bottom 20% of HHs in 2000?HHs in 2000?

•Children being raised by single mothers 51%•People 65+ 24%•Full Time Workers 7%•Adults with College Educations 7%•Residents by Race

•White 12%•Asian 19%•Pacific Islander 21%•Ak Native 27%•Black 29%

Alaska in the 21st Century

Young AdultsYoung Adults

Alaska in the 21st Century

Young AdultsYoung AdultsMedian Earnings of High School Dropouts as a Median Earnings of High School Dropouts as a

% of College Graduates% of College Graduates

1980 1990 20000%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Alaska in the 21st Century

The Brain DrainThe Brain Drain

8-14 Population in 1990 63,518

Stayers 34,935

-Leavers 28,583

+New Arrivals 16,508

18-24 Population in 2000 51,443

Alaska in the 21st Century

Take Away MessageTake Away Message•Diversity is Increasing—And it is concentrated among younger residents

•People are still coming to Alaska to look for opportunity—And finding it

•Economic opportunity means different things to different people

•Ak Natives remain the largest minority—With women finding more opportunities than men

•Non-wage income and high LFPR have offset declining wage rates—So household income remains high

•Our income distribution is more equitable than most places and the poverty rate lower—Thanks in part to the PFD

•Watch the Boomers—What they decide to do will impact us all

•We have matured to the point of having a suburb—And it looks different than we do

•Young adults today face a tougher job market than their parents

Alaska in the 21st Century

For additional information on this and other topics related to Alaska’s economy:

www.alaskaneconomy.uaa.alaska.edu

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu

ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY:ANCHORAGE IN THE 21ST CENTURY: MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE MORE DIVERSITY, MORE COMPLEXITY, MORE

CHALLENGINGCHALLENGING