Andy Kliskey1

Lil Alessa1

Mark Altaweel1,2 1Resilience & Adaptive Management Group, University of Alaska

Anchorage2Argonne National Laboratory

(Credit: David Verbyla, UAF)

1985 1995

Era of rapid change

(Credit: Bunn, EOS) (Credit: USGS)

Era of rapid change

(Credit: AAAS)

(Credit: EALAT, Inger Marie Gaup EIRA)

Complex dynamics – social & ecological systems, spatial and temporal scales

Emergent toolsagent-based models (ABM)

ABM defined …A computational model for simulating the actions and

interactions of individuals in a network …with a view to examining their effects on the entire

system

Values held toward water

drinking

washing and cleaning

subsistence uses

travel

recreation

biological

cultural activitiesMost important value of water

18-39 years 40-59 years 60-99 years

Source: Alessa , Kliskey, Williams. Society & Natural Resources. 2008.

Perceived change vs Actual change

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Ag

gre

gate

d p

erc

ep

tion

of

ch

an

ge f

or

ag

e g

rou

ps

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

Mean

an

nu

al

tem

pera

ture

(d

eg

F)

Perception of change in water availability correlated with presence/absence of MWS

People from villages with no MWS perceive greater change in river water availability

Chi-square = 6.01, p<0.01 Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams. Polar Geography 2007.

Some rules …Perception of change in water resources

varies with age cohortValues toward water vary with age cohortPerception of change in water availability

vary with presence of MWSPerception of change in water resources

varies by agent type

Human-hydrological dynamics: Integrating Multiple ApproachesFERAL: Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes

Different Approaches – Seward Peninsula Scenarios

Metropolis-Hastings Markov ChainDischarge data (USGS)

Demographic Life Tables Data from US Census and Alaska’s Department

of Health and Social Services

Water Use Model Data from Seward Peninsula fieldwork

Applying Agent-Based Modeling

Initial Social Model

Current Social ABM in

FERAL

Step 1: Assess water source selection process with observed trends and determine consequences of water selection choices.

Questions- White Mountain (Seward Peninsula) Scenarios How do agents choose water source

locations?

What are the consequences of agent decisions?

What social-ecological changes are suggested by water use of different sources?

AAAS: 9/16/08

Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 1Discharge: Model uses Metropolis-Hasting Markov chain to calculate discharge levels at a given time.

Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 2

River Discharge

Quantity change belief

MaximumMaximum

MeanMean

Integrated Models: Example Runtime Output 3

Population changes slowly, based on demographic trends

in Alaska and Seward Peninsula

10-Year Scenario: Travel To River

agents

White Mountain

Fish River

Agents concentrate at river sources nearest to White Mountain.

10-Year Scenario: Selection of Sources in the Fish RiverObserved matches well with expected

10-Year Scenario: Municipal and Non-Municipal Choices

1=Beginning of the simulation2= End of the simulation

Noticeable shift toward older agents using municipal sources.

100-Year Scenario: Declining Use of River Sources

•River sources are abandoned between 19-45 years

•Average abandonment time for the river is 36 years

100-Year Scenario: Water Use and Population

Rapid increase in municipal water use Rapid increase in municipal water use

Social-Ecological Changes

Still not clear from the modeling (more work needed here).

We expect greater use of municipal systems to create greater strain on the sources providing municipal systems. Considering the small population, this might not be very significant; however, other more intensive water use operations could alter water quality and quantity availability (e.g., mining).

Fast changing social and land use dynamics (e.g., construction of municipal system) vs. slower climate driven phenomena (e.g., permafrost thawing).

ConclusionsSocial-Ecological problems can be addressed

by coupling different processes using various methodologies at different spatiotemporal scales.

In addition to addressing regional level dynamics, resilience approaches need to begin to assess small-scale (e.g., community-level) dynamics.

Need for integrating interdisciplinary research teams.

Close collaboration between modeling and fieldwork can enable better overall results.