Angel Broking- Weekly Newsletter - 14 December 2013

8/13/2019 Angel Broking- Weekly Newsletter - 14 December 2013

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December 14, 2013

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 1

TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Our markets began the proceedings for the week with a

mammoth upside gap after the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) made

a clean sweep in the state assembly elections. However, the

markets had factored in a BJP victory and thus the exuberance

didn't last too long. During the week, four out of five trading

sessions opened lower and closed in the negative territory.

Selling pressure intensified on Friday which dragged the Nifty

well below the psychological 62006200620062006200 mark. All the sectors

excluding IT closed in the negative territory. The Capital goods,

Banking, and Auto indices underperformed the benchmark

indices. The Sensex and the Nifty shed 1.46% and 1.34%,

respectively, over the previous week's closing.

Pattern formation:

The '89-day EMA' and the '89-week EMA' are placed at

20273 / 603020273 / 603020273 / 603020273 / 603020273 / 6030 and 19132 / 574319132 / 574319132 / 574319132 / 574319132 / 5743 levels, respectively.

The '20-day EMA' and the '20-week EMA' are placed at

20834 / 619820834 / 619820834 / 619820834 / 619820834 / 6198 and 20240 / 602220240 / 602220240 / 602220240 / 602220240 / 6022 levels, respectively.

The daily and weekly momentum oscillators are stillnegatively poised.

The weekly charts of both the benchmark indices now depict

a 'Bearish Engulfing' Japanese candlestick pattern.

Future outlook

It was an eventful week for our market as the bulls conquered

the previous life time high of 63576357635763576357 on the Nifty at the opening

tick on Monday. The index went on to register a new all time

high (64156415641564156415) after a long wait of five years. However, the bulls

then turned skeptical; the bears pounced on this opportunity to

dictate the trend in almost all the trading sessions. During the

concluding session of the week, the Nifty sneaked marginally

below the daily '20 EMA', which is a sign of weakness. However,

the important support level of 61506150615061506150 is still untouched. Looking

at the negative placement of momentum oscillators and the

'Bearish Engulfing' Japanese candlestick pattern on the weekly

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 1: Nifty weekly chart

1

Source: Falcon

Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart

"Modi" mania fizzles out; all eyes on RBI, FED

Sensex (20716) / Nifty (6168)

chart, it is clear that any sustainable move below 61506150615061506150 may

lead to a decline towards the immediate 'Upward Sloping Trend

Line' (please refer exhibit 2) support level of 60806080608060806080; even the

daily '89 EMA' level of 60296029602960296029 could get tested. On the flip side,

the index is now trading around the 50% Fibonacci retracement

level of the recent up move from 59725972597259725972 to 64156415641564156415. A sustainable

move beyond the gap area of 6209 - 62356209 - 62356209 - 62356209 - 62356209 - 6235 may bring the bulls

back into action. In this scenario, we may witness a rally towards

6300 - 63506300 - 63506300 - 63506300 - 63506300 - 6350 levels. The coming week is expected to trade with

enhanced volatility on the back of events such as the RBI

monetary policy and the FOMC meet. Hence, the traders are

advised to be light on positions and maintain strict stop losses.


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December 14, 2013

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 2

TTTTTechnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |echnical Picks |

Technical Research Team

Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS21,755 21,235 20,964 20,444 20,173

6,502 6,335 6,248 6,081 5,995

12,524 11,945 11,648 11,069 10,771

1,218 1,155 1,121 1,058 1,024

202 190 184 173 166

526 510 500 484 474

1,390 1,315 1,267 1,192 1,145

2,056 1,981 1,938 1,862 1,819

739 699 678 639 617

355 338 327 310 298

185 170 162 147 139

388 365 352 329 316

332 327 324 320 317403 390 383 369 362

309 296 286 273 263

172 161 156 145 140

2,498 2,449 2,420 2,371 2,342

363 351 343 331 323

2,888 2,777 2,716 2,605 2,545

1,229 1,205 1,164 1,140 1,099

857 832 818 792 778

730 710 697 678 665

2,263 2,162 2,109 2,008 1,954

130 124 121 115 112

578 569 562 553 546

1,250 1,168 1,124 1,041 997

123 113 108 98 93

494 455 434 395 374

3,430 3,402 3,362 3,333 3,293

327 321 316 310 305

303 281 268 247 234

61 56 53 49 46

801 780 767 746 733

1,193 1,122 1,083 1,011 972

901 885 868 853 836

1,000 975 953 929 906

1,816 1,753 1,718 1,655 1,620

150 144 140 134 130

163 150 142 130 122

318 299 289 270 259

656 610 587 542 518

104 101 99 96 94

461 442 431 413 401

901 883 870 852 839

464 442 430 408 395

1,986 1,865 1,803 1,681 1,619

204 198 191 185 178

607 589 579 561 550

421 396 377 352 334

96 92 88 83 79

442 428 419 406 396

2,123 2,062 2,029 1,968 1,935

2,026 1,914 1,849 1,736 1,671

R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIVPIVPIVPIVPIVOOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2SENSEX

NIFTY

BANKNIFTY

ACC

AMBUJACEM

ASIANPAINT

AXISBANK

BAJAJ-AUTO

BANKBARODA

BHARTIARTL

BHEL

BPCL

CAIRNCIPLA

COALINDIA

DLF

DRREDDY

GAIL

GRASIM

HCLTECH

HDFC

HDFCBANK

HEROMOTOCO

HINDALCO

HINDUNILVR

ICICIBANK

IDFC

INDUSINDBK

INFY

ITC

JINDALSTEL

JPASSOCIAT

KOTAKBANK

LT

LUPIN

M&M

MARUTI

NMDC

NTPC

ONGC

PNB

POWERGRID

RANBAXY

RELIANCE

RELINFRA

SBIN

SESAGOA

SUNPHARMA

TATAMOTORS

TATAPOWER

TATASTEEL

TCS

ULTRACEMCO


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December 14, 2013

For Private Circulation Only | Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 3

Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |

Big correction unlikely, don't short

Nifty spot closed at 6168.406168.406168.406168.406168.40 this week, against a close of 6259.906259.906259.906259.906259.90 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 0.920.920.920.920.92 to 0.950.950.950.950.95

levels and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 13.36%13.36%13.36%13.36%13.36%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures increased by 14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%14.56%.

Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis

PCR-OI has increased from 0.92 to 0.95 levels. In call options

good amount of buildup was seen in 6200 & 6300 strikes,

followed by significant unwinding in the range of 6400-6800

strikes. While in put options we hardly saw some buildup,

maximum buildup was seen in 6400 strike last week. Highest

buildup is seen in 6300 call & 6000 put options.

Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has decreased from 22.98%.to

15.85%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 20.83% and that for

BANKNIFTY is trading at 38.73%. Liquid counters having very

high HV are ORIENTBANK, BANKINDIA, HDIL, JPASSOCIAT

and IRB. Stocks where HV are on lower side are OFSS, INFY,

COLPAL, LUPIN and RELIANCE.

Nifty futures closed at a premium of 29.35 points against the

premium of 43.85 points to its spot. Next month future is trading

with premium of 83.90 points. Liquid counters where CoC is

high are VOLTAS, JPPOWER, HINDZINC, TCS and UPL. Stocks

with negative CoC are POWERGRID, HDIL, HCLTECH and

BHEL.

Total open interest of market has increased from

`1,42,698/- cr. to`1,48,480/- cr. Stock futures open interest

has increased from`35,898/- cr. to`37,662/- cr. Some of the

large cap which added open interest are NTPC, SIEMENS,

COALINDIA, POWERGRID and TATAMOTORS. Open interest

was shed in large cap names like SSLT, CAIRN, RELINFRA,

HEROMOTOCO and WIPRO.

Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis

Scrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTY CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :CMP :6168.406168.406168.406168.406168.40 LLLLLot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50 Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) : Exercise Date (F & O) :

26th Dec. 2013

Expected PayoffView: Mildly Bullish

6050

6150

6250

6350

6450

6550

BEP -BEP -BEP -BEP -BEP - 6325

Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:`1250/- Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: Unlimited

If NIFTY closes on or below 6300 on expiry. If NIFTY continues to move above BEP.

NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in favorable direction and time value decay.

Strategy: Long Call

Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell QtyQtyQtyQtyQty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell Rate

PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype (((((`````)))))

BUY 50 NIFTY 6300 DEC CE 25.00

Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected ( ( ( ( (`````))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss

(`25.00)

(`25.00)

(`25.00)

`25.00

`125.00

`225.00

Derivative Strategy


5/6

Weekly

Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)

Ratings (Returns) :

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Weekly

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V Srinivasan Analyst (Cement, FMCG) [email protected]

Yaresh Kothari Analyst (Automobile) [email protected]

Ankita Somani Analyst (IT, Telecom) [email protected]

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Harshal Patkar Research Associate [email protected]

Nishant Sharma Research Associate [email protected]

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Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst [email protected]

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Angel Broking- Weekly Newsletter - 14 December 2013