Angry Summer

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CLIMATECOUNCIL

Angry Summer 2013/2014

Continuing hot on the heels of the ‘Angry

Summer’ of 2012/2013, Australians again

endured record-breaking extreme events this

summer. Drought conditions affected inlandeastern Australia, while parts of the north and

west of the country experienced above average

rainfall. There was an early start to the bushfire

season in New South Wales, and parts of

South Australia, Western Australia and

Victoria were ravaged by fires. Prolonged and

intense heatwaves were experienced in major

population centres, including Adelaide, Canberra

and Melbourne.

Over the 2013/2014 summer numerous

extreme weather-related records were

broken across Australia (Figure 1; Figure 2).

Key findings

1. Heatwaves and hot days, drought and

rainfall extremes (high and low), andbushfires dominated the 2013/2014

summer. For example:

• Sydney had its driest summer

in twenty-seven years

• Canberra experienced 20 days of

at least 35°C

• Melbourne experienced its hottest

ever 24 hour period (average 35.5°C)

•

Adelaide had a record of 11 days of42°C or more during the summer

• Perth had its second hottest summer

on record

2. Climate change is already increasing the

intensity and frequency of many extremeweather events in Australia.

3. Many of our largest population centres

stand out as being at increased risk from

extreme weather events, including

heatwaves, drought and bushfires.

4. The impacts of extreme weather events

on people, property, communities and the

environment are serious and costly.

5. Limiting the increase in extreme weather

activity requires urgent and deep reductions

in the emissions of greenhouse gases. The

decisions we make this decade will largely

determine the severity of climate change

and its influence on extreme events for our

grandchildren. This is the critical decade

for action on climate change.

This report provides a summary of extreme

weather conditions in the 2013/2014 summer,

continuing the trend of hotter summers and

more weather extremes in Australia.



2

F i g u r e

1 : D u r i n g t h e s u m m e r o f 2 0 1 3 / 2 0 1 4 a s e r i e s o f e x t r e m e e v e n t s

h i t t h e n a t i o n

S o u r c

e : B o M 2

0 1 4 a – h ; T h e A g e 1 8 J a n u a r y 2 0 1 4 ; T h e A g e 1 1 F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 4

D A R W I N

H O B A R T

C A N B E R R A

1 5 6

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9 0

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i n e a r l y

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o n

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A D E L A I D E

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a n d F e b r u a r y i n S o u t h

A u s t r a l i a t h r e a t e n e d

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A D

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H O T T E S T

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R U A R Y

D A Y

4 4 . 7 ° C

A D E L A I D E :

1 1 D A Y S

4 2 ° C +

M E L B O U R N E :

2 N I G H T S

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M E L B O U R N E :

H O T T E S T E V E R

2 4 H O U R

P E R I O D

A V G 3 5 . 5

° C

T E M P E R A T U R E

F A

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A D E L A I D E :

5 D A Y S

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C A N B E R R A :

4 D A Y S

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E R

3 9 ° C

4

D A Y S

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4

D A Y S

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P e r t h ’ s s e c o n d

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B u s h fi r e s i n V i c t o r i a ’ s

G r a m p i a n s i n J a n u a r y

k i l l e d

o n e p e r s o n ,

d e s t r o y e d p r o p e r t y

a n d b u r n t o v e r

5 2 , 0 0

0 h e c t a r e s

P E R T H :

H O T T E S T N I G H T

E V E R 2 9 . 7 ° C



3

Climate change andextreme weather

Australia has always been, and will continue to be,

a land of extremes. However, climate change is

now making many types of extreme weather

worse, especially weather related to higher

temperatures. For example, Adelaide experienced

13 days where the maximum temperature

exceeded 40°C (the average is 2 days per summer).

Recent record-breaking events show that climate

change is already affecting Australians.

It is crucial that we are aware of the influence

of climate change on extreme weather so that

communities, emergency services, health

services and other authorities are prepared

for the likelihood of increasingly severe and

frequent extreme weather.

Summer 2013/2014 in detail

Heatwaves

In Australia, a heatwave is defined operationally

as a period of at least three days where the

combined effect of high temperatures and

excess heat is unusual within the local

climate (BoM 2012; Nairn and Fawcett 2013).

Heatwaves have widespread impacts, rangingfrom direct impacts on our health to damage

to ecosystems, agriculture and infrastructure

(Climate Council 2014).

What happened?

During summer 2013/2014, intense and

prolonged heatwaves scorched central and

eastern Australia, with major population centres

– Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne – and

their surrounding areas particularly affected.

Record high maximum temperatures occurred

over 8.8 percent of Australia during the first four

days of January, including 17 percent of New

South Wales, 17 percent of the Northern Territory,

16 percent of Queensland and 8 percent

of South Australia (BoM 2014a).

This summer’s heatwaves were particularly

significant because of their record-breaking

duration in major population centres in

southeast Australia.

Victoria experienced its hottest four days on

record from 14–17 January, and Melbourne set

a record for four consecutive days at 41°C and

above (14–17 January) and two nights in a row

at 27°C or above (15–16 January) (BoM 2014b).

Adelaide sweltered through a record-breaking

five consecutive days of 42°C and above, and

Canberra experienced a record run of four days

of 39°C (BoM 2014b). During the summer of2013/2014, Canberra recorded 20 days of at least

35°C (BoM 2014c).

Since 1950 the number of heatwave days each

year has been increasing in Perth, Adelaide,

Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Hobart, and

across Australia as a whole (Perkins and

Alexander 2013; Climate Council 2014).

Climate change and heatwaves

Hot days, hot nights and extended periods

of hot weather – heatwaves – are one of the

most direct consequences of climate change

(Climate Council 2014). The increase in

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily

caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is trapping

more heat in the atmosphere. This increases

the likelihood of heatwaves and hot days and

decreases the likelihood of cold weather

(IPCC 2013).

Since 1960, the annual number of record hot days

in Australia has doubled (CSIRO and BoM 2012)

and over the past decade, record hot days have

occurred three times more often than record cold

days (Trewin and Smalley 2013; CSIRO and BoM

2014). Since 2001, the number of extreme heat

records has been almost three times greater

than the number of cold records for daytime

temperatures, and almost five times greater for

nighttime temperatures (CSIRO and BoM 2014).

The nature of heatwaves in Australia is also

changing: they are becoming hotter, lastinglonger, starting earlier, and occurring more

frequently (Perkins and Alexander 2013;

Climate Council of Australia 2014).

Although Australia has always experienced hot

weather, it now occurs more often, and is more

intense because of climate change. Australia is

not unique. Over the past decade, a remarkably

large number of record-breaking and devastating

heatwaves have occurred in many other parts of

the world (Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012).





5

The IPCC Special Report on Extremes (2012) and

the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) project

that it is virtually certain (greater than 99 percent

probability) that hot extremes will increase and

cold extremes will decrease through the century

compared to the current climate.

Rainfall extremes (high and low)Australia is a large country and rainfall varies

across the continent.

What happened?

Dry conditions prevailed in many regions,

particularly much of inland eastern Australia which

was affected by drought conditions (BoM 2014i).

Northeastern New South Wales and southeastern

Queensland experienced serious rainfall deficits

(lowest 10 percent of records), and Sydney had its

driest summer in almost thirty years (BoM 2014i).Other smaller areas of Victoria, Tasmania and

southwest Western Australia were also affected by

serious rainfall deficits (BoM 2014i). On the other

hand, rainfall was above average across the west of

Queensland's Cape York Peninsula, through the

north and west of the Northern Territory, through

most of Western Australia and along the coast

of South Australia. A large part of this area

experienced the highest 10 percent of summer

rainfall records. In the tropical north and eastern

Western Australia, the majority of summer rainfall

was the result of tropical cyclones or significant

tropical lows (BoM 2014i).

Climate change and rainfall extremes

The conditions that cause drought and rainfall

are complex. While some parts of Australia have

become wetter, much of the eastern part of

Australia has become drier over the past four

decades (Climate Commission 2013; BoM 2014l).

Since the 1960s, southeast Australia has

experienced a number of major droughts. One of

the most severe was the recent Millennium

Drought (1997-2009), for which there is some

evidence of a climate change influence (CSIRO2012). The intensity of the subtropical ridge (STR),

a high pressure system that often lies over

southern Australia, has been implicated in the

decreased rainfall in the southeast (CSIRO 2010).

Rising global temperatures have been linked to

an increase in the intensity of the STR (Timbal

and Drosdowsky 2013), with the result being a

drier and more drought-prone southeast Australia.

Figure 3: The summer mean temperature anomaly for Australia (1910-2013) indicating a continuing

trend of hotter summers, including eight of the hottest summers on record occurring in the past fifteenyears. The summer anomaly is a deviation from the long-term average (1961 to 1990).

Data source: Modified from BoM 2014m

Mean temperature anomaly of

Australian summers (1910–2013)

above the long-term average

1 9 1 0

0 0

0.5 0.5

Year

M e a n t e m p e r a t u r e a n o

m a l y ( ° C )

1 1

1 9 2 0

1 9 3 0

1 9 4 0

1 9 5 0

1 9 6 0

1 9 7 0

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0

2 0 1 0

EIGHT OFTHE HOTTEST SUMMERS ON

RECORD IN AUSTRALIAHAVE OCCURRED IN

THE LAST FIFTEENYEARS



6

Bushfires

Bushfires – a natural part of the Australian

landscape – can severely affect biodiversity,

human health, property, economic activity

and infrastructure.

What happened?

The intense and prolonged heatwaves that

affected several capital cities and their

surrounding regions this summer stacked the

odds towards more severe bushfire weather.

Fires burnt near Perth in mid-January 2014,

destroying property and costing an early-figure

estimate of $15 million (ICA 2014). Fires also

burnt large areas of Victoria’s Grampians

(The Age, 18 January 2014), and threatened

communities on Melbourne’s fringe (The Age,

11 February 2014) and in South Australia(The Guardian, 9 February 2014).

Climate change and bushfires

Climate change is driving an increase in the

risk of bushfires. More hot days and the

increasing intensity, duration and frequency

of heatwaves mean that the chance of very

high fire danger weather – and in turn bushfires

– is increasing (Climate Council 2013). Since

the 1970s, significant increases in fire danger

weather has been observed in the southeast

of Australia (Clarke et al. 2013; CSIRO and

BoM 2014).

The future for extremeweather in Australia

Australia has experienced hotter summers since

the middle of the 20th century (Figure 3), including

eight of the hottest summers on record occurring

in the last fifteen years. Over the coming decades, it

is virtually certain that extreme hot weather willcontinue to become even more frequent and severe

in Australia and other parts of the world.

To slow and eventually halt the increase in

extreme heat and rising bushfire risk, the climate

needs to be stabilized. This requires a rapid,

deep and long-term reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions. The current trend of rising global

emissions needs to be turned around by 2020 and

the right investment decisions need to be made

over the next few years to deliver the longer termemission reductions that are required.

This is the critical decade for action. We are now

in 2014 and approaching the halfway point in

the decade. Despite the promising developments

in low carbon technologies and energy efficiency

measures, Australians have not yet reached a

consensus on the need to decarbonize our

economy and on the development of policies that

will turn investments towards a decarbonized

future. This challenge must be met if we are to

minimize the risk of worsening extreme weather

events for our children and grandchildren. It’s time

to get on with the job.



7

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Published by the Climate Council

of Australia Limited

ISBN:

Print: 978-0-9924142-4-5

Web: 978-0-9924142-5-2

© Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2014

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Angry Summer