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Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Annual Energy Outlook 2009Early Release
Energy Information AdministrationDecember 17, 2008
www.eia.doe.gov
2EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
The economy, oil prices, resources, policies,and behavior drive the AEO2009 reference case
• Long-term economic growth averages about 2.5 percentper year between 2007 and 2030
• World crude oil prices recover from a near-term declineand reach $130 per barrel (in 2007 dollars) by 2030
• A robust domestic natural gas resource base allows for asteady expansion of production given projected growth indemand and prices
• Recently-enacted policies and concerns over greenhousegas (GHG) emissions, combined with high energy prices,moderate projected growth in energy consumption andemissions
3EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1980 1990 2000 2007 2010 2020 2030
Reference
High Price
Low Price
ProjectionsHistory
Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; thefull AEO includes a wide range of price cases
2007 dollars per barrel
4EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Liquid Fuels
Coal
Renewables (excl liquid biofuels)
Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuelsstill provide 79 percent of total energy use in 2030
History Projection
Liquid Biofuels
quadrillion Btu
5EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
History Projections
Energy use per dollar of GDP continues todecline; per capita energy use also declines
index, 1990=1.0
Per capita
Per dollar
6EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Net dependence on imported liquids declinesdramatically over the next 20 years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net Imports
History Projections
AEO2009 reference caseAEO2008 reference case
58%41%54%
60%
million barrels per day
1EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Industrial
Transportation
Residential and Commercial
Electric Power
Petroleum-based liquids consumption is projected to be flat as biofuels use grows
Biofuels
million barrels per day
History Projections
8EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2007 2015 2020 2030
SU VVanPicku pMid /larg eSu b /C o m p actMin i/2-Seat
New light-duty vehicle sales shift from lighttrucks back to cars
percent of total sales
9EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2007 2015 2020 2030
Electric Vehicle/Fuel Cell Vehicle
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Gaseous
Flex Fuel
Diesel
Mild and full hybrid systems dominate newlight-duty vehicle sales by 2030
millions of sales
History Projection
10EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2022 2030
CornEthanol
Legislated RFS
Cellulose Ethanol
Biofuels use falls short of the 36 billion gallonRFS target in 2022, but exceeds it by 2030
Net Ethanol Imports BiodieselBiomass to Liquids (BTL)
RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments
Ethanolfrom OtherFeedstocks
Renewable Diesel
billion credits
11EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
The import share of natural gas supplydeclines sharply as domestic supply grows
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net Imports
History Projections
AEO2008 reference case
16%
3%
14%
trillion cubic feet
AEO2009 reference case
12EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Unconventional production meets most growthin natural gas demand and offsets the decline inconventional production and imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Unconventional
Alaska
Net imports
Associated-dissolved
Non-associatedoffshore
Non-associated conventional
History Projections
trillion cubic feet
13EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Period Annual Growth1950s 9.01960s 7.31970s 4.21980s 3.11990s 2.42000-2007 1.12007-2030 1.0
Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency
Growth in electricity use continues to slow3-year rolling average percent growth
History Projections
14EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Nominal
Real 2007
Electricity prices rise with higher capital andfuel costs and growing demandcents per kilowatthour
ProjectionsHistory
15EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable
Oil & Other
Generation mix gradually shifts to lowercarbon optionsbillion kilowatthoursbillion kilowatthours
ProjectionsHistory
16EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
5 0 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0
Biomass
Wind
Solar
WasteGeothermal
Nonhydropower renewable power meets 33% oftotal generation growth between 2007 and 2030
billion kilowatthoursbillion kilowatthoursHistory Projections
17EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
46
139
57
130
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables
gigawattsgigawatts
Natural gas and renewables provide most of theNatural gas and renewables provide most of thegenerating capacity added between 2007 and 2030generating capacity added between 2007 and 2030
18EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Growth in energy-related CO2 emissions slowswith slowing growth in energy use and a shiftto less carbon-intensive fuels
History Projectionsmillion metric tonsmillion metric tons
AEO2008 reference case
AEO2009 reference case
19EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Buildings Industrial T ransportation Electric PowerG eneration
Purchased Electric ityCoalNatural GasPetroleum
AEO20092030
AEO20082030
2007
Electricity generation is the dominant source ofCO2 emissions growth
Delivered, including losses in electricity generation
million metric tonsmillion metric tons
20EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Key results from AEO2009 reference case• World oil prices rise to higher levels due to growth in world
demand and more limited access to resources• U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2030 as
modest growth in overall liquids demand is met by biofuels• U.S. dependence on imported oil, measured as a share of U.S.
liquids use, is expected to decline sharply over the next 25years
• Natural gas import share of total supply also declines sharplydue to increased domestic production with higher prices
• Unconventional natural gas production, lead by gas shales, isexpected to provide the majority of growth in gas supply
• Energy-related CO2 emissions grow at 0.3 percent per year,absent any new policy to control emissions
Howard [email protected]
Periodic ReportsPetroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2009, December 2008/ February 2009
International Energy Outlook 2008, August 2008
U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves 2007, October2008 (Advance Summary), January 2009 (Full Report)
Examples of Special AnalysesAnalysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
May 2008
Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S.2191, the Lieberman-Warner ClimateSecurity Act of 2007, April 2008
“Impacts of Increased Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Lower 48Federal Outer Continental Shelf,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, December 2003
www.eia.doe.gov
22EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
GHG regulatory uncertainty in the AEO2009
• Although no Federal legislation has been passed,regional groups and State regulators are enactingregulations and the financial community is behaving as ifthey anticipate regulations
• Energy companies are being encouraged to shiftinvestments towards less GHG-intensive technologies
• To represent this behavior in the AEO2009 referencecase, a 3-percentage-point cost of capital penalty hasbeen added when evaluating investments in GHG-intensive technologies
• This penalty is meant to represent the implicit cost beingadded to GHG-intensive projects to account for the riskthat they may have to purchase allowances or makeother investments in the future to offset GHG emissions
23EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
U.S. Gross Domestic Product(billion 2000 chain-weighted dollars)
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
17,000
20,000
23,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AEO2009 AEO2008 History
Economic growth returns to trend after near term slow down
24EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Peak to Trough Change in Real GDP(Percent)
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
1960 1969-70 1973-75 1980 1981-82 1990-91 2000-01 2008-09
Reference Case Assumes Current Recession is Worse thanPast Two Recessions
25EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Growth In Liquids Supply And Price(Average Percent Per Year)
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000-2003 2003-2007 2007-2010 2010-2015 2015-2030
VolumeGrowth
Rate
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
PriceGrowth
Rate
Total Liquids Non-OPEC Liquids Difference in Growth Rates Price
Demand for Liquid Fuels Grew More Rapidly than Non-OPECSupply over the Last Four Years
PriceVolume
26EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionHistory
New Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy(miles per gallon, based on CAFE test)
CarCombined
Light Truck
Newly enacted CAFE standards in EISA will require significantincreases in light duty vehicle fuel economy
27EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionHistory
New Alternative Light Vehicle Sales(percent of total sales)
Electric Drive
Alternative Fuel CapableDiesel
Alternative light duty vehicle sales increase from 10 percent in2007 to 63 percent by 2030
28EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
Components of Liquid Fuels(million barrels per day)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Biofuels
OtherFuels
Diesel
M otorGasoline
2007 2015 2030
PetroleumBased
Biofuels
Higher world oil prices and technology dampen liquidsconsumption through 2015 while the Renewable Fuel Standard
increases supply of a variety of biofuels. After 2015, the majority ofsupply growth is met with biofuels.
29EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Presentation -- December 17, 2008
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Commercial
Industrial
Commercial electricity sales drive growthCommercial electricity sales drive growthbillion kilowatthoursbillion kilowatthours
Residential
