ANNUALREPORT2016-2017

Our Mission

We support research that informs economic policymaking while

engaging future leaders and scholars. We share knowledge and build

relationships among academics, government officials,

the business community and the public.

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Table of Contents

Director’s Letter .......................................... 2

Policy Impact .............................................. 4

Student Support .......................................... 8

Events and Conferences ............................... 12

Policy Briefs ................................................ 20

Income and Expenditures ............................ 21

Philanthropy ............................................... 22

Donors ........................................................ 27

Senior Fellows ............................................. 32

Faculty Fellows ........................................... 36

Researchers ................................................ 36

Visitors and Young Scholars ......................... 37

Steering Committee ..................................... 39

Advisory Board ........................................... 41

John Gunn Janet Yellen speaks at SIEPR

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Director’s LetterDear Friends,

Thinking of the past year reminds us of what’s at stake when it comes to economic policymaking. Many of the biggest national debates — whether about tax reform, health care or jobs — have huge implications.

Our faculty and affiliates at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research are involved in those topics and so many more, producing data-driven, credible and impartial scholarship intended to understand and inform the ideas and legislation shaping the economy.

Your generous support is instrumental to the work we do, and I very much appreciate your dedication to our mission of fostering policy-relevant research, engaging future leaders and scholars, and sharing our scholarship with a broad audience.

The pages ahead will remind you of our accomplishments during the 2016-17 academic year. You will see familiar faces in the photos of events that convened policymakers, academics and business leaders. You will see that SIEPR is on strong financial ground.

But I want to take some extra space here to shine the light on what I see as one of SIEPR’s most important roles: Teaching and training the next generation of economists and economic policymakers.

SIEPR is not only home to some of the world’s most well-established economists. It is also a magnet for the youngest and most promising stars in the field. That’s something we take very seriously as an institution

because the future of economic policymaking can only be as good as those trained to analyze, craft and implement the policies that will affect millions of lives.

We’ve made major strides in the past year to bring many more students into our orbit. Thanks in large part to your support, we assisted more than 100 graduate and undergraduate students with fellowships and research assistant positions. The fellowships funded a wide range of graduate students who were able to conduct field research all around the

world. And our new program for undergraduate research assistants provided valuable research experience and mentorship for aspiring economics and public policy students who worked closely with our faculty members.

After launching a successful pilot, we have established a predoctoral research fellows program designed to train those interested in a graduate degree in economics, public policy, or a related discipline. The fellows are assisting SIEPR faculty while earning credits for classes that they take.

Our relationships with student groups like the Stanford Economics Association and Stanford in Government are stronger, and we’ve hosted more robust programs and events that dig into the topics that students care deeply about — issues like the cost of housing, the price of our criminal justice system and the promise and perils of a tech-based economy.

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And we took every opportunity available to connect Stanford students directly with policymakers. Fed chief Janet Yellen and White House budget director Mick Mulvaney both met privately with groups of students during their visits to SIEPR. Undergraduates and graduate students also had the chance to meet with officials from the U.S. Treasury Department, regional Federal Reserve banks, and the International Monetary Fund.

Along with attracting more students to SIEPR, we have broadened our set of scholars. The last academic year saw our roster increase by three Faculty Fellows. And visitors from Columbia, MIT, Harvard and Northwestern were part of our Young Scholars Program as junior professors or recent PhDs from those institutions.

This past year also brought the loss of one of the giants of economics. Kenneth Arrow, a Nobel Prize winner and SIEPR Senior Fellow, died on Feb. 21. We paid tribute to Ken in a daylong event organized in October by John Shoven, Alvin Roth and Matthew Jackson. Along with a

celebration of Ken’s academic contributions — which were many — he was remembered for his humility, kindness, and ability to connect with students and younger scholars. At least five of Ken’s students went on to win their own Nobels.

Of all the lessons we’ve learned from Ken, perhaps one of the most important is that we should make a bold investment in our students. With your continued support and involvement with SIEPR, I am confident those investments will yield tremendous rewards in the coming year and generations ahead.

Best regards,

Mark Duggan The Trione Director of SIEPR The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics

Students engage in a private meeting with Janet Yellen

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Policy Impact

SIEPR researchers bridge academia and government. Their scholarship and expertise informs

congressional testimony, leads to advisory roles, and builds relationships with leaders of various

federal and state agencies. Their work is covered by some of the most influential journalists, and

their policy-relevant ideas are broadly circulated in the essays, commentaries and opinion pieces

they write for leading news organizations.

Adrien Auclert Gopi Shah Goda

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Here are some examples from the past year.

SIEPR Director Mark Duggan’s Policy Brief on the Affordable Care Act was cited in a New York Times story about health care sector jobs.

The Wall Street Journal wrote about a paper co-authored by Duggan, SIEPR Deputy Director Gopi Shah Goda, and PhD student Emilie Jackson, showing no evidence the Affordable Care Act has driven workers out of the labor force.

Maya Rossin-Slater, a Faculty Fellow, presented her research on paid family leave to the Washington State Legislature. She also co-authored a report for the California Employment Development Department on the economic and social impact of paid family leave.

SIEPR Senior Fellow Gregory Rosston advised presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as a member of her campaign’s Technology Policy and Innovation Working Group.

A Policy Brief about the coal industry written by Senior Fellow Charles Kolstad received widespread media attention, including coverage by The Washington Post.

The country of Ghana decided to institute free secondary education, citing research by Senior Fellow Pascaline Dupas as background evidence that helped shape the policy. Four of Dupas’ studies were mentioned in a World Development Report, which makes recommendations widely followed by policymakers.

Leading news organizations — including The Washington Post, Esquire, and The Atlantic, wrote about research by Senior Fellow Matthew Gentzkow that focused on social media and political polarization.

The Indian state of Tamil Nadu is funding and supporting research conducted by Grant Miller, a Senior Fellow and Director of the Stanford Center for International Development, focusing on rice fortification. The state government has committed to scaling the intervention for as many as 80 million people if Miller’s study shows it is successful.

Senior Fellow Pete Klenow presented one of his papers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Symposium on Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.

Senior Fellow Daniel Ho wrote an op-ed in The Seattle Times discussing the food safety rating algorithm he developed for the public health department in Seattle and King County.

Senior Fellow Michael Boskin was an adviser to the Fiscal Law Reform Commission in India. He also served as an adviser to the White House, Treasury Department and the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance committees on tax reform.

Raj Chetty’s work on income inequality received widespread media coverage. The Senior Fellow’s work on “quantifying the American dream” was the subject of a New York Times column.

Senior Fellow Edward Lazear wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal about a balanced approach to immigration policy.

Congress introduced a bill, Protecting Consumers’ Access to Credit Act of 2017, that references a research paper by Faculty Fellow Colleen Honigsberg.

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Several news outlets, including The Atlantic, The Nation and Columbia Journalism Review, discussed Senior Fellow Jay Hamilton’s research on the economics of investigative reporting.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen cited research by Faculty Fellow Adrien Auclert in a speech she delivered on “Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis.” Yellen cited Auclert’s work as an example of new research on monetary policy and heterogeneity.

Senior Fellow Alan Sykes co-wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal about the Trump administration’s emphasis on bilateral trade agreements.

Senior Fellow Anat Admati served on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and on the agency’s Risk Management subcommittee. She also sits on the FDIC Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee and testified before California state lawmakers about the fraudulent practices of Wells Fargo.

Senior Fellow John Taylor testified three times on Capitol Hill about monetary policy and bankruptcy reform. He also argued his case for a rules-based Federal Reserve system in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece. Taylor was also named to the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance.

Pascaline Dupas John Taylor

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Anat Admati Raj Chetty

Grant Miller Edward Lazear

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Student Support

SIEPR and the Stanford Center for International Development (SCID) supported about 115 graduate and undergraduate students during the 2016-17 academic year through

fellowships and research assistant positions. The fellowships funded graduate student projects on

topics ranging from health care economics to political corruption and helped make field research

possible in Ukraine, Tanzania and other spots around the world. A program for undergraduate

research assistants — in its second year — also continued to provide valuable research experience for

aspiring economics students.

SIEPR’s dissertation fellowships, which totaled

approximately $490,000, allowed PhD candidates

on the job market to complete their research and

travel for job seminars. Award recipients from

2016–17 have gone on to secure jobs in academia,

private industry and the public sector, including

the International Monetary Fund, Pandora,

Social Capital, The Wharton School at the

University of Pennsylvania, Yale and Brown.

At SCID, the Ronald McKinnon Memorial

Fellowship provided $7,800 in student support

while an additional $98,000 in fellowship awards

were made possible by general gifts. Moritz Lenel receives the Landau Student Discussion Paper Prize

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SIEPR Fellowships and AwardsB.F. Haley and E.S. Shaw Fellowship Support for EconomicsMonica Bohle – Applied economics: Public vs. private student loans, firm recruitment, MedicaidEvan Mast – Municipal tax incentivesDavide Malacrino – Entrepreneur wealth and firm dynamicsBobak Pakzad-Hurson – Policy effects on wage transparency within firmsJuan Rios – Welfare analysis of transfer programs with jumps in reported income: Brazil

The Bradley Research Fellowship ProgramKareem Elnahal – Theoretical finance and political economyLuis Alonso Villacorta – The roles of financial intermediaries, nonfinancial firms in the economy

E. S. Shaw and B.F. Haley Fellowship for EconomicsStephen Nei – Information effects on consumption

Kapnick Fellowship ProgramMegha Patnaik – Management practices and productivityKelly Zhang – Voter pessimism and political corruption

Kohlhagen Fellowship FundMoritz Lenel – Effects of asset risk and maturity structure on money markets, asset pricesSantiago Saavedra – Tax evasion in illegal mining: Colombia

The Leonard W. Ely and Shirley R. Ely Graduate Student FundBarbara Biasi – Economics of educationAtul Gupta – Health care economicsPerez Santiago – Railroads and the rural-to-urban transition: Argentina

Shultz Graduate Student Fellowship in Economic PolicyAala Abdelgadir – Effects of parental involvement and resources on school performance: Uganda

Ala’ Alrababa’h – Seeds of separatism: Eastern UkraineTravis Baseler – Information frictions in the migration decision: KenyaFulya Esroy – Roles of information and beliefs on study effort and performanceCasey Maue – Effect of water risk on agricultural investment and migration: TanzaniaOdyssia Ng – Liability contracts for farmers: KenyaMichael Webb – How automation destroys jobs: UK

Claire and Ralph Landau Student Discussion Paper PrizeMoritz Lenel – “Safe Assets, Collateralized Lending and Monetary Policy”

SCID Fellowship RecipientsThe Ronald McKinnon Memorial FellowshipEmanuele Colonnelli – Corruption and firms: BrazilJoshua Kim – Food labeling and (mis)information: Chile

Graduate Student FellowshipsHernán Barahona – Public-private wage differentials: Brazil

Andrew Brooks – Impact of colonial militaries on economic developmentCauê de Castro Dobbin – Returns to tertiary education: BrazilJoshua Kim – Saliency effects and currency choice: ArmeniaSalma Mousa – Overcoming the trust deficit: Inter-group contact in Iraq

Christiana Parreira – Kinship, religious identity, and local service provision in weak states: LebanonAnna Popova – Education technology in developing countriesShiran Shen – Career incentives of local leaders and air pollution control: ChinaEdgar Franco Vivanco – Origins of cooperative behavior: Rural Mexico

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“We’ve made major strides in the past year to bring many more students into our orbit.” — Mark Duggan, The Trione Director of SIEPR

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Events and Conferences

Events hosted by SIEPR and its centers drew more than 3,000 participants over the

course of the year, providing informative discussions on some of the most important economic issues

of today. Some speaker visits — such as those of Fed Chair Janet Yellen and White House budget chief

Mick Mulvaney — were incredibly timely with political happenings. And our longstanding practice

of hosting conferences and academic workshops continued to cover both emerging research and

deepening economic issues. Students, scholars, industry experts and thought leaders were privy to

lively, collaborative forums allowing them to learn about, question and explore the work ahead in

improving economic policy.

Edward Lazear chats with attendees following his Associates Meeting talk

3,000

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Policy Forum on Gentrification and Affordable HousingSIEPR’s fall Policy Forum on Oct. 14 focused on housing and its effects on education, employment, a region’s economic health, and even a person’s upward mobility. The event, featuring five sessions, posed a question in its title, “Can Policy be the Key to Affordable Housing?” The answer that emerged from the dozen panelists — leading experts in academia, business and policy — was “yes.” They explained how deepening lines of inequality and the cumulative effects of some government actions have exacerbated the nation’s housing crisis. But solutions can be found in better policy prescriptions.

At SIEPR, Yellen warns against running a “hot” economyFederal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen met with a group of Stanford students and spoke at an event hosted by SIEPR on Jan. 19. Her visit came on the eve of Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, and her remarks explaining the Fed’s decision-making strategy signaled potential conflicts with the White House. In a pointed rebuttal to what some lawmakers were calling for, Yellen said it would be “risky and unwise” to run a “hot” economy and defended the Fed’s current approach of gradual interest rate adjustments.

SIEPR Economic SummitThe 2017 SIEPR Economic Summit on March 10 drew an engaging mix of insights from experts in academia, industry and policy, taking participants on a daylong ride from the dark days of Wall Street and the Golden Age of Hollywood to the uncertain future of the world’s geopolitical shifts. The annual event, in its 14th year, featured panel discussions and two keynotes — one from former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and another from former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers.

Janet Yellen

Lawrence Summers Ruth Porat

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Policy Forum on Crime, Policing and IncarcerationAt the SIEPR Policy Forum on April 21, panelists went beyond the headlines to present a deeper look at the nation’s criminal justice system. The analytical insights and sometimes heated discussions ranged from the impact of police use of stun guns to the high price of instant noodles at jail commissaries. Panelists — including scholars, a police chief, the co-founder of TASER International and a former inmate-turned-PhD student — tackled pressing issues such as prison overcrowding and what police could do to build public trust.

Economic Experiments in the Tech IndustryFacebook, Amazon and Google all have teams of economists on their payrolls, and econ PhDs are heading increasingly for technology companies. What are their roles? What experiments are they running? How are consumers affected? On May 8, SIEPR hosted an event that cast a spotlight on this emerging trend, bringing together economists from both the private sector and academic world. The businesses represented in attendance had conducted more than 30,000 experiments in 2016 alone, according to event organizer Michael Luca, who was a SIEPR visiting scholar during the academic year.

Trump’s budget chief answers student questions at SIEPR As lawmakers on Capitol Hill were locked in a battle over a Republican health care plan, Stanford students had an opportunity on May 11 to get direct answers from the White House budget chief on a slew of hot-button issues facing the administration. Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney’s appearance at SIEPR was jointly organized with Stanford in Government and the Stanford Economics Association. More than 50 students attended the intimate, town hall-like session.

Mick Mulvaney

Kate Glazebrook Geoff Donaker

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Kim Mai-Cutler, Karen Chapple and Amie Fishman at the Policy Forum on housing

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a special meeting with students at SIEPR

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Esther George

Helen Qiao, Jin-Yong Cai and Shang-Jin Wei at the SIEPR Summit

Attendees gather to talk to Arthur Brooks

Shea Streeter

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Students interview a Policy Forum panelist for a Facebook Live videoRaphael Bostic at the Policy Forum on housing

David Maldonado of UC Berkeley at the Policy Forum on Crime, Policing and Incarceration

Rebecca Hetey and Eric Jones discuss ways for police to build public trust

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In addition to the events highlighted earlier, SIEPR and its centers hosted the following:

Associates Meeting SpeakersNiall Ferguson, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. October 2016

Karen Dynan, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. October 2016

Arthur Brooks, President of the American Enterprise Institute. November 2016

Esther George, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. February 2017

Sarah Bloom Raskin, Former Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. February 2017

Maurice Obstfeld, Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund and Professor of Economics, UC Berkeley. April 2017

Edward Lazear, SIEPR Senior Fellow, the Morris A. Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Davies Family Professor of Economics, Stanford Graduate School of Business. June 2017

Conferences, Workshops and Special EventsCelebration honoring outgoing SIEPR Deputy Director Greg Rosston. September 2016

SIEPR Postdoctoral Fellows Conference. September 2016

Conference on Working Longer and Retirement. October 2016

The Rise of ASEAN and the Future of the U.S.-ASEAN Strategic Partnership. October 2016

SCID-IGC Conference on Trade, Firms, and Development. November 2016

SCID: Fall Regional Meeting of the Working Group in African Political Economy. November 2016

SIEPR-Bill Lane Center for the American West: State of the West Symposium. December 2016

Stanford Media Research Forum. December 2016

SEEPAC Research Workshop: China’s Cap-and-Trade Climate Policy Efforts. January 2017

Conference on Health Care & Competition. January 2017

Workshop on Micro to Macro Growth: Firms & Workers. February 2017

SCID: Stanford-Berkeley Health Economics Workshop. February 2017

SIEPR Breakfast with John Vickers on the Economics of Brexit. March 2017

SIEPR-Hoover Institution Debate: “Has the ‘Neutral’ Interest Rate Declined and How Does It Affect Fed Decisions?” May 2017

SCID: BREAD Conference on Development Economics. May 2017

SCID: Development and Political Economics Graduate Student Conference. May 2017

SEEPAC Research Workshop: Advances in Estimating Economic Effects from Climate Change Using Weather Observations. May 2017

SIEPR-GSB Conference in honor of Nobel Prize winner Bengt Holmström. May 2017

The Empirical Revolution in Economics. June 2017

Conference on A Gender Agenda. June 2017

30th Summer Economic Institute for Teachers. July 2017

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Gavin Wright with attendees at the Summer Economic Institute for Teachers

Rina Rosenberg and Victor Fuchs at the SIEPR Summit

Maurice Obstfeld

Sarah Bloom RaskinIgor Popov

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Policy BriefsHealth Insurance: Choices, Changes, and Policy ChallengesMaria PolyakovaSeptember 2016

When Affordable Housing Moves in Next DoorRebecca DiamondOctober 2016

Ten Important Economic Policy Areas for President-elect TrumpGregory RosstonNovember 2016

What Higher Interest Rates Could Mean for YouAdrien AuclertDecember 2016

Changes to Medicare under the Affordable Care ActJack Davidson, Jonathan LevinJanuary 2017

When Businesses Go Bust: Liquidate or Reorganize?Shai BernsteinFebruary 2017

What Is Killing the US Coal Industry?Charles D. KolstadMarch 2017

What History Tells Us about Assimilation of ImmigrantsRan AbramitzkyApril 2017

Financing Black-Owned BusinessesRob FairlieMay 2017

What Yelp Data Can Tell Us About The Minimum Wage (and other policies)Michael LucaJune 2017

Risky Business: Bank Loans to Local GovernmentsBenji Nguyen, Sylesh Volla, and Annabel WongAugust 2017

What History Tells Us about Assimilation of ImmigrantsBy Ran Abramitzky

Immigration has emerged as a

decisive—and sharply divisive—issue

in the United States. Skepticism about

whether new arrivals can assimilate

into American society was a key

concern in the 2016 presidential

election and remains an ongoing

theme in the public debate on

immigration policy. This controversy

is not new. The U.S. has experienced

repeated waves of hostility toward

immigrants and today’s concerns

echo alarms sounded often in the

past. Both today and in earlier times,

many in this country have viewed

immigrants as a threat to the integrity

of the nation’s culture, fearing that

foreigners among us somehow make

America less American. Consider the

following statement: Immigration

“is bringing to the country people

whom it is very difficult to assimilate

and who do not promise well for

the standard of civilization in the

United States.” The speaker was not

Donald Trump on the campaign trail

but Massachusetts Sen. Henry Cabot

Lodge in 1891.

The immigration debate raises a

fundamental issue: Are immigrants

able to successfully integrate into

American society by adopting the

economic, social, and cultural

norms of native-born Americans? Or

are they likely to remain an alien

presence inside our borders long

after they settle here? This argument

typically generates more heat than

light. Many people have opinions

on the subject, but relatively little

empirical evidence is available on

how fully and quickly immigrants

assimilate into U.S. culture.

Leah Boustan of UCLA, Katherine

Eriksson of UC Davis, and I have

tried to fill part of this gap by

looking at immigration during the

Age of Mass Migration from 1850 to

1913, when U.S. borders were open

and 30 million Europeans picked

up stakes to move here. By the

early 20th century, some 15 percent

of the U.S. population was foreign

born, comparable to the share today.

If we want to know how today’s

newcomers will fare, we can find

important clues by examining what

happened to those who arrived on

our shores during the greatest surge

of immigration in U.S. history.

In our previous work on immigration,

my co-authors and I looked at

occupation data of immigrants who

arrived during the Age of Mass

Migration.1 The classic narrative is

that penniless immigrants worked

low-paying jobs to pull themselves

up by their bootstraps, eventually

reaching equality of skills and

income with natives. We found

1 Abramitzky, Ran, Leah Platt Boustan, and Katherine Eriksson. (2014). “A Nation of Immigrants: Assimilation and Economic Outcomes in the Age of Mass Migration.” Journal of Political Economy. 122(3): 467-506.

Policy Brief

April, 2017 siepr.stanford.edu

About the Author

Ran Abramitzky is a SIEPR Senior Fellow and an Associate Professor of Economics at Stanford. He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the co-editor of Explorations in Economic History. His research is in economic history and applied microeconomics, with a focus on immigration and income inequality.

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

When Businesses Go Bust: Liquidate or Reorganize?By Shai Bernstein

During the recent financial crisis,

we saw a surge in the number of

corporate bankruptcy filings. In 2008,

more than 60,000 cases were filed.

The number might be staggering, but

corporate bankruptcy filings are by no

means confined to recessions. Over

the last four decades, an average of

50,000 bankruptcy cases were filed by

businesses in a given year. Ultimately,

insolvency and distress of firms are

unavoidable consequences of an

evolving economy.

The institutions that handle distressed

businesses play a significant role

in the economy. The bankruptcy

system attempts to balance a delicate

trade-off. It strives to protect firms

and entrepreneurs and encourage risk

taking, while making sure creditors

will get their money back and will

have the confidence to make loans in

the first place.

But the system plays yet another

important role — it allocates the

assets of the distressed firms. And

that can have an impact on local

economies as well as individual

businesses.

If a firm is not the most productive

user of its assets, shutting it down

could even be desirable, as the real

estate, employees, machinery, and

other resources could be reallocated

and put to better use. If an auto parts

company shuts down and its factory

is better used for producing sewing

machines, then reallocating the

factory to a sewing machine company

could boost the productivity and

growth attributed to these assets.

This logic holds also at the macro

level. Recent papers argue that

economies that reallocate assets

more efficiently between firms are

more productive and recover more

quickly following adverse economic

shocks (Eisfeldt and Rampini, 2006;

Hsieh and Klenow, 2009; Bartelsman

et al., 2013).

There are two main approaches

through which bankruptcy courts

operate in the U.S.: liquidation

(Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy

Code) and reorganization (Chapter

11). The liquidation procedure

winds down the firm and puts

all assets back on the market

through an auction. In contrast, the

reorganization procedure allows

the firm to continue operations and

attempts to rehabilitate the distressed

firm’s capital structure and financial

condition.

How do the different approaches

affect the allocation of assets of

bankrupt firms? At a first glance, the

effects are quite ambiguous.

Critics of reorganization argue

that conflicts of interests among

claimholders and complicated

bargaining processes allow

businesses that file for Chapter 11 to

continue operating inefficiently and

stall the better use of their assets.

Liquidation, those critics say, prevents

that complication. The reasoning is

that liquidation leads to an auction

of all assets. And that auction

should assure that all assets will be

reallocated to the best user, right?

Well, Chapter 7 raises a new set of

complications and questions: What

if there are only few potential users

for the defunct company’s assets?

Policy Brief

February, 2017 siepr.stanford.edu

About the Author

Shai Bernstein is a Faculty Fellow at the Stanford

Institute for Economic Policy Research and an Associate

Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of

Business. His research interests include corporate and

entrepreneurial finance.

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Changes to Medicare under the Affordable Care ActBy Jack Davidson and Jonathan Levin

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) made

substantial changes to Medicare.

Supporters of the ACA hoped

the 2010 law would improve the

efficiency of Medicare by reforming

payments and health care delivery

while also lowering costs.

Some of the notable reforms included

adjustments to slow the growth of

Medicare prices, attempts to reduce

expenditures in Medicare Advantage,

and a range of programs that reward

or penalize health care providers

based on how they perform relative to

quality or cost targets. Early evidence

suggests some success in slowing cost

growth, but the potential long-term

impact of far-reaching payment

reforms is still hard to assess.

These policy changes have been

overshadowed by the controversy

over the ACA’s reforms to the

individual health care market and the

expansion of Medicaid. But with the

new Congress poised to revisit and

likely repeal parts of the Affordable

Care Act, Medicare may come under

the microscope again. This Policy

Brief reviews the ACA reforms to

Medicare and how they have played

out over the last seven years.

Traditional Medicare (Parts A & B)

The ACA mandated several broad sets

of reforms to the traditional fee-for-

service (FFS) Medicare program.

These reforms included an attempt

to slow cost growth by changing the

formula for Medicare payments, as

well as programs and demonstrations

that attempt to shift the structure

of Medicare payments and the

incentives of health care providers.

Medicare reimburses providers for

services based on administrative

payment schedules. The Centers for

Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS)

update these schedules each year to

reflect changes in medical costs. The

update reflects changes in the costs

of providing different services. The

ACA mandated that calculations of

these cost changes should incorporate

productivity growth that enables

health care providers to use their

resources more efficiently.

Figure 1 illustrates the impact of

the ACA productivity adjustment

using CMS Inpatient Hospital data

(2000-2017). So far, the adjustments

have been relatively small on an

annual basis, on the order of 0.5

to 1.0 percent (the 2017 number is

slated at 0.3 percent). However, the

adjustments cumulate over time, so

that as of 2017 payments are 3.45

percent lower than they would have

been with the old unadjusted index.

Over time, the policy will cut

meaningfully into prices. A hospital

that receives $2,500 for performing a

cardiac catheterization and expects

this to rise to $3,000 over a decade

might see that growth cut by $150.

An open and significant question is

whether the productivity adjustment

will be sustainable. In the short

run, Medicare has some flexibility

to reduce payment growth. Over

a longer period, payments need

to be high enough to induce

hospitals and physicians to accept

Medicare insurance. Ultimately, the

sustainability of the ACA adjustment

will depend on whether health care

productivity gains keep up with

those of the economy at large so

that providers remain willing to

participate.

Policy Brief

January, 2017 siepr.stanford.edu

About the Authors

Jack Davidson is a

sophomore at

Dartmouth College,

majoring in

economics. He was

a research assistant

at SIEPR during the

summer of 2016.

Jonathan Levin is the

Philip H. Knight

Professor and Dean

of the Stanford

Graduate School of

Business and a senior

fellow at SIEPR.

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

What Is Killing the US Coal Industry?By Charles D. Kolstad

One of the themes of Donald Trump’s

presidential campaign was bringing

back coal jobs to the Midwest. As

president, he has doubled down on

this, promising to “lift restrictions on

American energy — including shale oil,

natural gas and beautiful, clean coal.”1

Many Republicans have blamed

environmental regulations enacted

during the Obama administration

for the decline of the country’s coal

industry. Republicans have pledged

to bring back the industry and its

jobs, primarily by neutering those

regulations. One of the first actions

by the new Congress was to cancel

the updated Stream Protection Rule,

1 Speech by Donald J. Trump to Conservative Political Action Conference, February 24, 2017.

protecting streams near coal mines,2

in an effort to relieve the coal

industry of “burdensome” regulations.

Motivating the political focus on

coal is a simple pair of facts: Coal

production in the United States has

declined recently after a half century

of growth, and employment in the

coal industry has dropped for years.

This Policy Brief explores the

arguments made to explain those

declines. And those who are inclined

to place most — or all — of the

blame on environmental regulations

will learn there are other, likely

stronger, influences at work.

2 The Stream Protection Rule of December 2016 was an update of an earlier rule, implemented as part of the 1977 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA). The Congressional Review Act authorizes Congress by vote to cancel regulations less than 6 months old. President Trump signed into law the cancellation of the Stream Protection Rule on February 17, 2017.

The state of coal in the U.S.

Taking the long view of coal in the

United States, one is struck by the

steady expansion of output since

World War II.

Figure 1 shows U.S. coal production

since 1949, separating the West

(the region west of the Mississippi

River) from the East (the region east

of the Mississippi). The East is the

traditional home of U.S. coal whereas

the West is primarily a post-1970

supplier.3

Although over the past 60 years

output of coal more than doubled,4

note that 2009 marked the start of a

moderate decline in output. Also note

that the post-World War II boom in

coal is not uniform over the country.

Virtually all of the gain in output was

in the West, with mining in the East

peaking in 1990 and declining slowly

ever since.

3 The West primarily consists of coal deposits from New Mexico and Arizona, as far north as Montana and as far east as Texas. The East primarily consists of coal deposits in the Midwest and Appalachia, from Ohio and Pennsylvania down to Alabama.

4 Coal output in both physical and value terms more than doubled 1949-2011. According to the EIA, the price of coal at the mine was $36.14/ton in 1949 and $32.56 in 2011, in constant, inflation-adjusted 2005$.

Policy Brief

March, 2017 siepr.stanford.edu

About the Author

Charles D. Kolstad is a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and Professor of Economics, by courtesy. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and the Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy. He specializes in environmental economics, particularly regulation and climate change. He is past president of the Association of

Environmental and Resource Economists and served as convening lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize).

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

What Yelp Data Can Tell Us About The Minimum Wage (and other policies)By Michael Luca

In April 1992, New Jersey increased

the state’s hourly minimum wage

from $4.25 to $5.05. The change was

controversial, as some policymakers

raised concerns that higher minimum

wages might have the unintended

consequence of increasing

unemployment rates. Business leaders

also expressed mixed opinions, with

some worrying that higher minimum

wages might be bad for business.

Princeton economists David Card

and Alan Krueger were watching

the discussion unfold, and set out

to understand exactly how the wage

hike would affect New Jersey jobs.1

They made a plan to survey fast food

1 Card, David, and Alan B. Krueger. 1994. “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.” American Economic Review, 84(4): 772-793.

restaurants before and after the new

wage went into effect to see if it

had an impact on employment in an

industry concentrated with minimum

wage workers. In need of a control

group where there was no increase in

the minimum wage, the researchers

chose the neighboring state of

Pennsylvania.

Flipping through telephone books

in the months before the new

wage became effective, the authors

identified 473 stores in New Jersey

and Pennsylvania to be in their

sample. A team of interviewers

sat down and called each of the

stores, sometimes up to nine times

before someone answered, and

asked questions about employment,

starting wages, prices, and other

store characteristics. With the

interviewers’ persistent efforts, they

achieved relatively high response

rates. Ultimately, they were able to

complete 410 phone interviews, for a

response rate of 87 percent.

Several months after the minimum

wage increase, the interviewers called

the same stores again for a follow-up

survey. While the majority of stores

picked up the phone, 39 did not,

so the research team drove to all 39

holdouts and asked them to complete

the survey in person. This resulted in

a 99.8 percent response rate for the

follow-up survey.

The labor-intensive survey yielded

important results. Despite the large

hike in the minimum wage, the

authors found that employment at

these establishments did not seem

to suffer. Now, 25 years later, the

findings are still regularly cited in

discussions of the minimum wage.

Moreover, the study is still taught

for its methodological approach of

comparing changes in New Jersey

with changes in the control state of

Pennsylvania — a canonical example

of what economists call a difference-

in-differences analysis.

In the decades since the Card and

Krueger paper, there has been a

Policy Brief

June, 2017 siepr.stanford.edu

About the Author

Michael Luca is a Visiting Scholar at SIEPR and an assistant professor at Harvard Business School. His research and teaching focus on the economics of digitization and on using data to improve policy and managerial decisions.

Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

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Income and ExpendituresSources of IncomeSeptember 1, 2016 – August 31, 2017

Associates & Friends ................................................... $7,136,349Foundations ............................................................... $3,856,102Endowment ................................................................ $2,790,204Miscellaneous ............................................................ $1,861,506Government ............................................................... $1,099,550University ................................................................... $1,073,030Corporations .................................................................$968,973

$18,785,714

ExpendituresSeptember 1, 2016 – August 31, 2017

SIEPR Central ............................................................. $7,628,754 Stanford Center for International Development (SCID) .. $4,971,293 Center for Public & Private Finance (CPPF) ................. $1,873,627 Center for Employment & Economic Growth (CEEG) ........................................................... $1,007,684 Centrally Administered Research Projects .....................$856,356

Stanford Environmental & Energy Policy Analysis Center (SEEPAC) ............................................................$195,228

$16,532,942CEEG6%Centrally

AdministeredResearch Projects

5%

SCID30%

CPPF11%

SIEPRCentral47%

SEEPAC1%

GraduateFellowships

4%

DistinguishedVisitors1%

Faculty Support6%

Development9%

Operations9%

PredoctoralFellows

Program4%

Miscellaneous2%

Young Scholars Program5%

Undergraduate RA Program2%

ResearchDisseminationand Outreach

5%

University6%

Government6%

Associates& Friends38%

Miscellaneous10%

Foundations20%

Corporations5%

Endowment15%

S T A N F O R D I N S T I T U T E F O R E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y R E S E A R C H | S I E P R22

Philanthropy

SIEPR’s generous supporters provided $14.8 million in gifts during 2016-17, up from $11.8 million

in 2015-16. These gifts came from individual donors, foundations, and corporations, and provided

support for critical SIEPR programs. Our goal in development is to present opportunities to donors

to help SIEPR achieve its ambitious goals to support research that informs economic policymaking,

to share this knowledge, and to engage future leaders and scholars in the process. In 2016-17, SIEPR

supporters responded.

Of the $14.8 million, $3.7 million was received through the annual giving program or through the Director’s Discretionary Fund. This “unrestricted” funding is critical for SIEPR’s smooth functioning. This flexible support can be used to pursue new opportunities that arise and bridge short-term funding gaps in important programs. Among other things, this funding was used in 2016-17 to:

• Provide seed grants to junior faculty and other faculty for expenses such as data acquisition and graduate student support.

• Sustain operational support functions for our students and researchers.

• Host events such as Policy Forums and the SIEPR Economic Summit.

Generous donors also directed support in 2016-17 to critical programs such as the Undergraduate Research Assistant Program, the SIEPR/Economics Predoctoral Research Fellows Program, and the Young Scholars Program, among others. The James Liang Scholars Fund supported three Postdoctoral Fellows — Michael Best, Judson Boomhower, and Xavier Jaravel — who have

all accepted assistant professor positions at leading universities.

The John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn International Scholars Program Fund supported two “Journeys of Inquiry” for a number of students. On one trip to Ghana, seven Stanford students worked under the guidance of SIEPR Senior Fellow Pascaline Dupas on the Ghana Youth Survey. The purpose of the project is to evaluate the effect of secondary school scholarships on long-term outcomes, such as employment, health, and the cognitive development of the children of scholarship recipients.

On another trip organized and led by Eva Meyersson Milgrom, students traveled to China for a first-hand look at the country’s firms and financial regulatory system. The trip gave students a unique understanding of the structural, political, and cultural differences between U.S. and Chinese organizations. Students spent 10 days conducting meetings and developing an understanding of the culture and environment that influences Chinese policy and procedures.

The Gunn SIEPR Predoctoral Fellows Fund gift made it possible to expand our successful Predoctoral Research

232 0 1 6 – 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T | P H I L A N T H R O P Y

SIEPR Senior Fellow Pascaline Dupas (on the right) poses with her students and other survey project members in Ghana

Steve Ballmer supported several undergraduate RAs and also co-taught a sophomore seminar with Mark Duggan

S T A N F O R D I N S T I T U T E F O R E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y R E S E A R C H | S I E P R24

Fellows Program that is designed to train and inspire those who are interested in pursuing graduate degrees in economics, public policy, or related disciplines. The program helps SIEPR expose promising students to careers in economic policy research while simultaneously supporting our faculty and strengthening their scholarly work.

Two new endowed funds were created toward the end of the year to support graduate students. The Patricia Liu McKenna and Kenneth McKenna Graduate Fellowship Fund and the Dixon and Carol Doll Graduate Fellowship Fund will soon support the work of a succession of

graduate students in perpetuity. Graduate students are key pieces of the economic policy research underway at SIEPR, and we are grateful to be able to support the best graduate students conducting research relevant for economic policy.

The 2017 SIEPR Economic Summit was a great success, thanks in part to our Summit sponsors Dodge & Cox and Heidrick & Struggles. Cornerstone Research also sponsored the Summit Chart Book. And once again, we had much more interest than we could accommodate, so we had a full house. The attendees greatly enjoyed

Anaïs Galdin, Morgan Foy, Felipe Kup and Helen Kissel (from left to right) are four of the predoctoral research fellows for 2017–18

252 0 1 6 – 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T | P H I L A N T H R O P Y

the program featuring a talk with Ruth Porat, CFO of Alphabet Inc. and Google Inc., as well as keynote speeches by Stephen Hadley, the former National Security Advisor to President George W. Bush, and Larry Summers, the Charles W. Eliot Professor at Harvard University.

SIEPR welcomed three new Advisory Board members between September 2016 and August 2017: Ken Xie, Jianming Yu, and Hong Seh Lim. We thank departing Advisory Board members Laura Arrillaga-Andreesen, Walter Hewlett, Yongshan Huang, and Sue Koffel.

We are very sorry to report the deaths of two Advisory Board members. William Edwards passed away in February, and this past October, we lost another friend, John Freidenrich. They both will be greatly missed.

In 2017-18, we are welcoming new Advisory Board members Xiaowei Li, Patricia McKenna, Armen Panossian, David Bizer, and Julianne Wagner. Our Advisory Board provides critical support for our work, and we greatly appreciate all they do to make SIEPR successful.

Anticipating growth in our programs and initiatives in the coming fiscal year, SIEPR also underwent some changes during 2016-17 in development staff. In June 2017, SIEPR welcomed Greg Gamble as the new Director of Development, and later Amy Peabody in the newly established role of Associate Director of Development. In addition, we welcomed recent college graduate Tiffany Ah Tye as our full time Development Associate after a handful of years of summer work at SIEPR. We wished longtime Director of Development Jane Bessin well in her retirement and gave her a fond farewell.

Our priorities in 2017-18 will be to put in place long-term, stable funding for our core programs, grow our annual giving program, and identify new funding for emerging initiatives. We are excited about what lies ahead and look forward to sharing these opportunities.

SPONSORED RESEARCH

Thank you to the following foundations that have specifically supported SIEPR’s research this year.

The Laura & John Arnold Foundation

Dioraphte Foundation

The Energy Foundation

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

William & Flora Hewlett Foundation

W.K. Kellogg Foundation

The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

National Science Foundation

Open Society Foundation

Robin Hood Foundation

The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Smith Richardson Foundation

Surgo Foundation UK Limited

TIAA Institute

The Harvard Weiss Family Fund

Robert Wood Johnson Foundation

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Lynn Anderson Poole

James LiangDixon Doll, Laura Ipsen, Sue Bostrom, Sandy Smith and Gary Gauba

Tony Meier, Eff Martin and Greg Rosston

272 0 1 6 – 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T | D O N O R S

Donors

Benefactors

SIEPR would like to recognize those donors who have contributed more than $500,000 or more in

their lifetime or have committed $500,000 or more through their estate plans. Those plans may

include naming SIEPR as a beneficiary of a will, revocable trust, irrevocable trust, life insurance

policy, or retirement plan. These “benefactors” have made a significant investment in the Institute’s

ability to thrive and fulfill its mission.

Anonymous (2)

The Annenberg Foundation

The Arell Foundation

Carol Baxter

The Gordon & Mary Cain Foundation

C.M. Capital Corporation

Datong Chen

Shirley Ross Davis

Feng Deng

The Dixon & Carol Doll Family Foundation

Dodge & Cox

Shirley Ely

John A. & Cynthia Fry Gunn

Yvette & John Gurley

Wallace Hawley

Heidrick & Struggles, Inc.

Robert Hellman

The William & Flora Hewlett Foundation

Noosheen Hashemi, The HAND Foundation

Cathie & Pitch Johnson

The Kapnick Family

Neeru & Vinod Khosla

Steve & Gale Kohlhagen

Koret Foundation

Ralph Landau

James Liang

Donald L. Lucas

The Lucas Brothers Foundation

Vijaya & Kumar Malavalli

Barbara & Buzz McCoy

Deedee & Burt McMurtry

Betty & Gordon Moore

Ken Olivier & Angela Nomellini

Paramitas Foundation/Winston Chen

Ann & Kanwal S. Rekhi

Searle Freedom Trust

Charles R. Schwab

Tad & Dianne Taube

Vic Trione

Mark & Sheila Wolfson

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Annual Giving

Thank you to the following individuals, corporations and foundations for making a contribution to

SIEPR between September 1, 2016 and August 31, 2017.

Director’s CircleAnonymous (1)

Amazon

Steve Ballmer

The Lynde & Harry Bradley Foundation

Datong Chen

Jonathan Coslet

Feng Deng

East Rock Capital

Shirley & Leonard Ely

Blake R. Grossman

John A. & Cynthia Fry Gunn

Heidrick & Struggles

Cathie & Pitch Johnson

The Kapnick Family

John Kleinheinz

Xiaowei Li

James Liang

Hong Seh Lim

Susan & Craig McCaw

Patricia Liu McKenna & Kenneth McKenna

Deedee & Burt McMurtry

Robert B. Okun

Ken Olivier & Angela Nomellini

Oracle Corporation

Paramitas Foundation/Winston Chen

Michael Rashes

Jesse Rogers

Charles R. Schwab

Thomas F. Stephenson

The Hand Foundation

TPG Capital

David Topper

Xie Foundation

Leadership CircleAlphabet, Inc.

Bank of America

Craves Family Foundation

Bayshore Global Management, LLC

C. M. Capital Corporation

Cornerstone Research

Sonja & Bill Davidow

Steven Aaron Denning

Dodge & Cox

The Dixon & Carol Doll Family Foundation

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Forbes Marshall Ltd.

Matthew Frank

Franklin Templeton Investments

GE

Godrej Industries Limited

Google, Inc.

Wallace Hawley

Grace & Laurance Hoagland

HomeStreet Bank

Benny T. Hu

Christopher Lynch

Eff W. Martin

Michael G. McCaffery

Barbara & Buzz McCoy

John Pfeffer

Charles Pohl & Eve Niquette

Geoff Rehnert

Vic Trione

Visa, Inc.

Mark & Sheila Wolfson

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InvestorsAnonymous (4)

Aetos Alternatives Management, LLC

Arcadia Development Co.

Arell Foundation

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - Global Rates & Currencies Origination

Bank of the West

Matthew Barger

Anne T. & Robert M. Bass

A. George (Skip) Battle

Blackrock, Inc.

John B. Boatwright

Michael & Chris Boskin

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.

Andy Chase

Leonard Collins

J. Taylor Crandall

David & Carla Crane

Alan Crites

Katherine & David deWilde

Christopher DiGiorgio

Susan Ford Dorsey & Michael Dorsey

Jerry Down

Richard J. Elkus, Jr.

Emerson Collective

Farallon Capital

Douglass Given

Prabhu & Poonam Goel

Fred Grauer

Robert Greeley

Patrick W. Gross

Hall Capital Partners, LLC

Bob & Holly Hellman

Laurie & Robert Hodrick

Kurt Jaggers

J. Scott Kaspick

Harry W. Kellogg, Jr.

Gregory D. Kennedy

Bill Koman

KPMG LLP

Gabrielle Layton

Barnaby Levin

David Lichtenger

John Lipsky & Zsuzsanna Karasz

Andrew Ludwick

Richard A. Magnuson

Karen & George McCown

Anthony P. Meier

Georgianna A. & Thomas C. Melzer

Richard Mirabella

Joel R. Mogy

Betty & Gordon Moore

James C. Morgan

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, LLC

Jean Mou

Needham & Company, LLC

Douglas & Emilie Ogden

Alan L. Olsen

Robert & Marion Oster

John & Barbara Packard

Rajiv Parikh

Prologis, Inc.

Dr. Helen Qiao

Christopher Redlich, Jr.

Ann & Kanwal S. Rekhi

Condoleezza Rice

Samsung Electronics

George Scalise

Susan & Eugene Shanks

A. Horton Shapiro

Lindy Sherwood

Silicon Valley Bank

John F. Sandy Smith

K.R. Sridhar

Stanford Federal Credit Union

Gene Sykes

The Valley Fund

John T. Thompson

Robert & Maryett Thompson

Three Bridge Wealth Advisors

Mark A. Vander Ploeg

H. A. Wagner

Wells Fargo Private Bank

Akiko Yamazaki & Jerry Yang

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AssociatesAnonymousR. David AndrewsDavid & Martha ArscottElizabeth BaileyG. Leonard Baker, Jr. & Mary Anne Nyburg BakerTanya S. BederRobert C. BertelsonDavid BizerSusan L. BostromJack & Casey CarstenMike ChildA. Crawford CooleyMichael CouchBrian Dombkowski

William H. & Phyllis C. DraperDonna L. DubinskyMarcy ElkindFenton Family FoundationJohn FisherLouis P. FriedmanNed GilhulyKen GoldmanLinda GraebnerHarry HageyStephen J. HarrickBruce & Elizabeth HartRandy L. Hazelton Hamilton W. Helmer

Joel HyattLaura IpsenHarold R. KellmanScott KepnerSteve & Gale KohlhagenLamoreaux Capital Management, LLCSujitpan LamsamRobert LattaLegacy VentureTom LockardBrian Evans MariscalRoger McNittSusan MeaneyMary Meeker

Steven MonossonMissy & Jeff MorrisPaul R. PerezLynn Anderson PooleMichael G. RantzKarl & Elizabeth RonnTom SadlerSand Hill Global Advisors, LLCEdward SchultzGeorge P. ShultzThomas K. StroudWilliam H. TylerAlan & Judy Zafran

FriendsAnonymous (2)Henry AaronOrley AshenfelterS.D. Bechtel, Jr. FoundationJane BeuleRonald BigelowMary G. F. BittermanRick BlumeWilson BowenJohn BrewFacebookWilliam FaulknerNorman FogelsongJay FriedrichsMatt GarlinghouseWilliam J. HagenahHilary W. HoynesAndrew Hung

Samir JunnarkarJames P. KingGail & Fred KittlerCarol KornfeldDouglas LevickKeith R. LoboGeorge MarottaSean McIntoshAnjney MidhaEric MitzenmacherRosemary & William NicholsWilliam J. PerryJames PoterbaGregory L. RosstonBernard RubinSamuel Robert ShapiroJay SiegelTom & Elisa Simmons

Nicola SpenceSteven SteinTPG GrowthJames C. Van HorneMinh Dan Vuong

Walden InternationalPeter & Lynn WendellMorgan W. WhiteDavid Yoffie

Annual Giving LevelsDirector’s Circle – $50,000+Leadership Circle – $20,000+Investors – $10,000+Associates – $5,000+Friends – Up to $5,000

If you would like to make a gift, update your listing, or have questions about supporting the Institute, please contact SIEPR’s development team at 650.736.2988.

312 0 1 6 – 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T | D O N O R S

Burt McMurtry and Hong Seh Lim David Topper and Gary Gauba

Noosheen Hashemi George Shultz and Tom Stephenson

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Senior FellowsRan AbramitzkyAssociate ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Anat AdmatiGeorge G.C. Parker Professor of Finance and Economics Graduate School of BusinessProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Susan AtheyEconomics of Technology ProfessorGraduate School of BusinessProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Kyle BagwellDonald L. Lucas Endowed Professor in EconomicsDepartment of Economics

Laurence C. BakerChair and Professor of Health Research and PolicyDepartment of Health Research and Policy School of MedicineFellowStanford Center for Health Policy

B. Douglas Bernheim Edward Ames Edmonds Professor of EconomicsTrione Chair Department of Economics

Jay BhattacharyaProfessor of MedicineSchool of Medicine and Center for Primary Care and Outcomes ResearchProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Health Research and PolicySenior Fellow, by courtesyFSI

Nicholas BloomWilliam D. Eberle Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy, of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Michael J. BoskinT.M. Friedman Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

David BradyBowen H. & Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science and Leadership ValuesDepartment of Political ScienceDavies Family Senior FellowHoover InstitutionProfessor of Political EconomyGraduate School of BusinessSenior FellowFSI

Timothy BresnahanLandau Professor in Technology and the Economy Department of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy Graduate School of Business

Jeremy Bulow Richard Stepp Professor of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Kate BundorfAssociate Professor Department of Health Research and PolicyAssociate Professor, by courtesy, of Political Economy Graduate School of Business

Gerhard Casper President EmeritusStanford UniversitySenior FellowFSIPeter and Helen Bing Professor in Undergraduate Education, Emeritus Professor of Law, EmeritusLaw School

Raj ChettyProfessorDepartment of Economics

John Cochrane Senior Fellow Hoover InstitutionProfessor of Finance and EconomicsGraduate School of Business

John CoganLeonard and Shirley Ely Senior FellowHoover Institution

Mark CullenProfessor of Medicine Professor of Biomedical Data ScienceProfessor of Health Research and Policy School of Medicine

Thomas Dee Associate Dean of Faculty AffairsProfessor of Education Graduate School of Education

332 0 1 6 – 2 0 1 7 A N N U A L R E P O R T | S E N I O R F E L L O W S

Dave Donaldson Associate ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Darrell DuffieDean Witter Distinguished Professor of Finance Graduate School of BusinessProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Mark DugganThe Trione Director of SIEPRThe Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of EconomicsDepartment of Economics

Pascaline DupasAssociate Professor Department of Economics

Liran EinavProfessorDepartment of Economics

Marcel FafchampsProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics Senior FellowFSI

Matthew GentzkowProfessorDepartment of Economics

Ronald J. GilsonCharles J. Meyers Professor of Law and Business, Emeritus Law School

Gopi Shah Goda Deputy Director SIEPR

Judith GoldsteinJanet M. Peck Professor of International Communication Department of Political Science

Lawrence H. GoulderShuzo Nishihara Professor of Environmental and Resource EconomicsDepartment of Economics

Avner GreifBowman Family Professor in Humanities and Sciences Department of EconomicsSenior FellowFSIProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of History

Joe GrundfestWilliam A. Franke Professor of Law and BusinessLaw School

David B. GruskyBarbara Kimball Browning ProfessorDepartment of Sociology

Stephen H. HaberA.A. and Jeanne Welch Milligan Professor School of Humanities and SciencesProfessorDepartment of HistoryProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of EconomicsPeter and Helen Bing Senior FellowHoover Institution

James Hamilton Hearst Professor of CommunicationDepartment of Communication

Eric Hanushek Paul and Jean Hanna Senior FellowHoover Institution

Daniel HoWilliam Benjamin Scott and Luna M. Scott Professor of LawLaw School

Caroline HoxbyScott and Donya Bommer Professor of Economics Department of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesyGraduate School of BusinessSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

Guido ImbensProfessorDepartment of EconomicsProfessor of Applied EconometricsGraduate School of Business

Charles Jones STANCO25 Professor of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Dan Kessler ProfessorLaw SchoolProfessor of Economic PolicyGraduate School of BusinessSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

Pete KlenowRalph Landau Professor in Economic PolicyDepartment of EconomicsGordon and Betty Moore Senior Fellow SIEPR

Charles KolstadSenior FellowPrecourt Institute for EnergyProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Stephen D. Krasner Graham H. Stuart Professor of International RelationsSenior FellowFSISenior FellowHoover Institution

Edward LazearJack Steele Parker Professor of Human Resources Management and Economics Graduate School of BusinessMorris Arnold and Nona Cox Senior FellowHoover InstitutionProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Mark LemleyWilliam H. Neukom Professor of LawLaw School

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Jonathan LevinPhilip H. Knight Professor and DeanGraduate School of BusinessHolbrook Working Professor of Price TheoryDepartment of Economics

Hongbin LiJames Liang Director of the China ProgramStanford Center for International Development

Susanna LoebBarnett Family Professor of EducationGraduate School of Education

Thomas E. MaCurdyProfessorDepartment of EconomicsSenior FellowHoover Institution

Paul MilgromShirley and Leonard Ely Professor of Humanities and SciencesDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy Graduate School of Business

N. Grant Miller DirectorStanford Center for International DevelopmentAssociate Professor School of MedicineAssociate Professor, by courtesyDepartment of EconomicsAssociate Professor, by courtesyDepartment of Health Research and PolicySenior FellowFSI

Alison MorantzJames and Nancy Kelso Professor of LawLaw School

Muriel NiederleProfessorDepartment of Economics

Paul OyerFred H. Merrill Professor Graduate School of Business

John H. PencavelPauline K. Levin-Robert L. Levin and Pauline C. Levin- Abraham Levin Professor Department of Economics

Monika PiazzesiJoan Kenney ProfessorDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy, of FinanceGraduate School of Business

Luigi PistaferriProfessorDepartment of Economics Ralph Landau Senior FellowSIEPR

A. Mitchell Polinsky Josephine Scott Crocker Professor of Law and EconomicsLaw SchoolProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

Joshua RauhOrmond Family Professor of FinanceGraduate School of BusinessSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

Sean Reardon Professor of Poverty and Inequality in EducationGraduate School of EducationProfessor, by courtesy Department of Sociology

Gregory RosstonDirectorPublic Policy ProgramProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of EconomicsGordon Cain Senior FellowSIEPR

Alvin RothCraig and Susan McCaw Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy, of Management Science and Engineering

Scott RozelleHelen C. Farnsworth Senior Fellow in International Agricultural PolicyFSI

Martin SchneiderProfessorDepartment of EconomicsProfessor by courtesy, of FinanceGraduate School of Business

Amit SeruProfessor of FinanceGraduate School of BusinessSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

John B. ShovenCharles R. Schwab Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsBuzz and Barbara McCoy Senior FellowHoover Institution

James L. SweeneyProfessorDepartment of Management Science and EngineeringDirectorPrecourt Energy Efficiency CenterSenior FellowHoover InstitutionSenior FellowFSISenior FellowPrecourt Institute for Energy

Alan Sykes Professor Law School

John B. TaylorMary and Robert Raymond Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsGeorge P. Shultz Senior Fellow in EconomicsHoover Institution

Michael TomzProfessorDepartment of Political Science

Barry Weingast Ward C. Krebs Family ProfessorDepartment of Political ScienceSenior FellowHoover InstitutionProfessor, by courtesy Department of Economics

Frank WolakHolbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies Department of EconomicsSenior FellowFSI

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Emeritus

Kenneth Arrowd. 2/21/17Joan Kennney Professor of Economics, EmeritusProfessor of Operations Research, EmeritusDepartment of Economics

Paul DavidProfessor, EmeritusDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy, of History, Emeritus

Victor FuchsHenry J. Kaiser, Jr., Professor of Economics, EmeritusDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, EmeritusDepartment of Health Research and PolicySenior FellowFSI

Anne KruegerHerald L. & Caroline L. Ritch Professor of Humanities and Sciences, Emeritus Department of Economics

Lawrence LauThe Kwoh-Ting Li Professor of Economics Development, EmeritusDepartment of Economics

Roger NollProfessor, EmeritusDepartment of Economics

Bruce OwenMorris M. Doyle Centennial Professor in Public Policy, EmeritusSchool of Humanities and Sciences

John RobertsJohn H. Scully Professor of Economics, Strategic Management and International Business, EmeritusGraduate School of BusinessProfessor, EmeritusDepartment of Economics

Gavin WrightWilliam Robertson Coe Professor in American Economic History, Emeritus Department of Economics

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Faculty FellowsMarcella AlsanAssistant Professor of MedicineSchool of Medicine

Adrien AuclertAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Shai BernsteinAssociate Professor of FinanceGraduate School of Business

Renee BowenAssistant Professor of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Marshall BurkeAssistant Professor of Earth System ScienceSchool of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences

Gabriel CarrollAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Katherine CaseyAssociate Professor of Political EconomyGraduate School of Business

David ChanAssistant Professor of MedicineSchool of Medicine

Arun Chandrasekhar Assistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Rebecca DiamondAssistant Professor of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Jacob GoldinAssistant Professor of LawLaw School

Colleen HonigsbergAssistant Professor of LawLaw School

Gregor JaroschAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Pablo KurlatAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Bradley LarsenAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Melanie MortenAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Petra PerssonAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Maria PolyakovaAssistant Professor of Health Research and PolicySchool of Medicine

Maya Rossin-SlaterAssistant Professor of Health Research and PolicySchool of Medicine

Florian ScheuerAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

Isaac SorkinAssistant ProfessorDepartment of Economics

ResearchersResearchers

Anjini KocharIndia Program Director and Senior Research ScholarSCID

Jessica LeinoDeputy Director and Research ScholarSCID

Eva Meyersson MilgromSenior Research Scholar

Joe NationProfessor of the PracticePublic Policy ProgramDirector of Graduate Practicum

Amy O’HaraResearch Scholar

Mary SpragueResearch Scholar

Rebecca ToselandResearch Scholar

Boris VabsonResearch Scholar

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Visitors and Young Scholars

Our visiting researchers — postdoctoral fellows, assistant professors and well-established senior

faculty — have the chance to focus more deeply on specific projects while finding new collaborators

among Stanford’s community of economic policy scholars. At the same time, the visitors’ infusion of

expertise and new ideas enhances the diversity of SIEPR’s research and policy insights.

Our Young Scholars program is changing the way some of the most promising economists start their

careers, encouraging them to work on policy-relevant research. Each year, the program supports

seven to nine scholars as either Postdoctoral Fellows or Visiting Fellows, and provides a supportive

and dynamic environment in which to conduct research.

“My time at SIEPR was an extraordinary opportunity to create lasting links to a

diverse community of other researchers at SIEPR, throughout Stanford, and in the

profession more generally.”

Michael Best, Assistant Professor, Columbia University, and former Postdoctoral Fellow, SIEPR 2014–2017

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Distinguished VisitorsMagne MogstadTrione Visiting ProfessorGary S. Becker Professor in EconomicsUniversity of Chicago

Larry SummersTrione Visiting ProfessorPresident EmeritusCharles W. Eliot University ProfessorHarvard University

Young Scholars

Postdoctoral Fellows

Michael BestPhD from London School of EconomicsAssumed position of Assistant Professor at Columbia University in Summer 2017

Judson BoomhowerPhD from University of California, BerkeleyAssumed position of Assistant Professor at University of California, San Diego in Summer 2017

Xavier JaravelPhD from Harvard UniversityAssumed position of Assistant Professor at London School of Economics in Summer 2017

Visiting Fellows

Nikhil AgarwalCastle Krob Career Development Assistant Professor of EconomicsMassachusetts Institute of Technology

Melissa Dell Assistant ProfessorHarvard University

Lee LockwoodAssistant ProfessorNorthwestern University

Jennifer La’OAssistant ProfessorColumbia University

Visiting FacultyHunt AllcottVisiting Associate ProfessorAssociate Professor of EconomicsNew York University

Nicolas CarayolVisiting ProfessorProfessor of EconomicsUniversity of Bordeaux

Robert FairlieVisiting ProfessorProfessor of EconomicsUniversity of California, Santa Cruz

Michael LucaVisiting Assistant ProfessorLee J. Styslinger III Associate Professor of Business AdministrationHarvard Business School

Joseph NewhouseVisiting ProfessorJohn D. MacArthur Professor of Health Policy and ManagementHarvard University

Rohini PandeVisiting ProfessorMohammed Kamal Professor of Public PolicyHarvard Kennedy School

Robert TownsendVisiting ProfessorElizabeth & James Killian Professor of EconomicsMassachusetts Institute of Technology

Christopher WaltersVisiting Assistant ProfessorAssistant Professor of EconomicsUniversity of California, Berkeley

“The organized events like the work-in-progress discussions were great, but the informal lunch and coffee conversations were just as important for sharpening knowledge and prompting research questions.”

Judson Boomhower, Assistant Professor, University of California, San Diego, and former Postdoctoral Fellow, SIEPR 2015–2017

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Steering Committee

Chair

John B. ShovenCharles R. Schwab Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsBuzz and Barbara McCoy Senior FellowHoover Institution

Members

Susan AtheyEconomics of TechnologyProfessorGraduate School of BusinessProfessor, by courtesyDepartment of Economics

B. Douglas Bernheim Edward Ames Edmonds Professor of EconomicsTrione Chair Department of Economics

Nicholas BloomWilliam D. Eberle Professorof EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy, of EconomicsGraduate School of Business

Michael J. BoskinT.M. Friedman Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

Timothy BresnahanLandau Professor in Technology and the Economy Department of EconomicsProfessor, by courtesy Graduate School of Business

Kate BundorfAssociate Professor Department of Health Research and PolicyAssociate Professor, by courtesy, of Political EconomyGraduate School of Business

Mark Duggan, ex officioThe Trione Director of SIEPR The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor ofEconomicsDepartment of Economics

Pascaline DupasAssociate Professor Department of Economics

Liran EinavProfessorDepartment of Economics

Lawrence H. GoulderShuzo Nishihara Professor of Environmental and Resource EconomicsDepartment of Economics

Pete KlenowRalph Landau Professor in Economic PolicyDepartment of EconomicsGordon and Betty Moore Senior Fellow SIEPR

Susanna LoebBarnett Family Professor of EducationGraduate School of Education

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N. Grant Miller, ex officioDirector of SCIDAssociate Professor School of MedicineAssociate Professor, by courtesyDepartment of EconomicsAssociate Professor, by courtesyDepartment of Health Research and PolicySenior FellowFSI

Alison MorantzJames and Nancy Kelso Professor of LawLaw School

Paul OyerFred H. Merrill Professor Graduate School of Business

Joshua RauhOrmond Family Professor of FinanceGraduate School of BusinessSenior Fellow Hoover Institution

James L. SweeneyProfessorDepartment of Management Science and EngineeringDirectorPrecourt Energy Efficiency CenterSenior FellowHoover InstitutionSenior Fellow FSISenior FellowPrecourt Institute for Energy

John B. TaylorMary and Robert Raymond Professor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsGeorge P. Shultz Senior Fellow in EconomicsHoover Institution

Frank WolakHolbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies Department of EconomicsSenior FellowFSI

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Advisory Board

ChairJohn A. GunnChairman Emeritus & CEODodge & Cox Investment ManagersVice Chair of the BoardStanford Hospital

Honorary ChairGeorge P. ShultzDistinguished FellowHoover Institution

Chair EmeritiWallace R. HawleyFounderInterWest Partners

Donald L. LucasPrivate Venture Capitalist

Bowen H. “Buzz” McCoyPresidentBuzz McCoy Associates, Inc.

William J. PerryMichael and Barbara Berberian Professor (Emeritus)Freeman Spogli Institute for International StudiesSchool of EngineeringStanford University

Tad TaubeChairmanTaube PhilanthropiesHonorary Consul of the Republic of Poland

MembersHenry J. AaronBruce and Virginia MacLaury Senior FellowThe Brookings Institution

Laura Arrillaga-Andreesen*Founder/PresidentLaura Arrillaga-Andreesen FoundationFounder & Chair, EmeritusSV2Founder & ChairStanford Center on Philanthropy and Civil Society (PACS)

Orley C. AshenfelterJoseph Douglas Green 1895 Professor of EconomicsPrinceton UniversityElizabeth E. Bailey Professor Emeritus of Business and Public PolicyUniversity of Pennsylvania

Steve BallmerChairmanLos Angeles Clippers

Mary G. F. BittermanPresidentThe Bernard Osher Foundation

Susan L. BostromFormer Executive Vice President Cisco Systems, Inc.

Datong ChenCo-Founder & Managing PartnerWest Summit Capital

Winston H. ChenChairmanParamitas Foundation

Wayne CoopermanPresidentCobalt Capital

Jonathan Coslet Senior Partner & Chief Investment OfficerTexas Pacific Group

William H. DavidowFounder & General PartnerMohr Davidow Ventures

William C. Edwards†PartnerEdwards Partners

Feng Deng Founding General Partner Northern Light Venture Capital

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Dixon R. DollCo-Founder & General Partner EmeritusDCM Ventures

John Freidenrich†Chairman & Co-FounderRegis Management Co., LLC

Gary GaubaPresidentCenturyLink Cognilytics

Frederick L. A. GrauerChairmanPurfresh, Inc.

Patrick W. GrossChairmanThe Lovell Group

Blake R. GrossmanManaging PartnerThirdStream Partners LLC

Noosheen HashemiPresident & Co-FounderThe HAND Foundation

Robert B. Hellman, Jr.CEO & Managing DirectorAmerican Infrastructure Funds

Walter Hewlett*Consulting Professor of MusicStanford University

Hilary HoynesHaas Distinguished Chair of Economic DisparitiesProfessor of Economics and Public PolicyUC Berkeley

Benny T. HuChairmanCDIB Bioscience Venture Management, Inc.

Yongshan Huang*Trustee, SuperintendentZhou Tong Institute of Security Investment

Laura K. IpsenSenior Vice President, Global Industries Solutions GroupOracle Corporation

Franklin P. Johnson, Jr.FounderAsset Management Company

Richard B. KapnickPartnerKatten & Temple, LLP

Harry KelloggVice-Chairman EmeritusSilicon Valley Bank

John B. KleinheinzPresidentKleinheinz Capital Partners, Inc.

Sue Koffel*Managing PartnerCMF Capital

Steven W. KohlhagenFormer Head of Fixed Income DivisionWachovia BankFormer ProfessorHaas School of BusinessUC Berkeley

Barnaby J. LevinPartner & Managing DirectorHighTower Advisors LLC

James LiangCo-Founder, Chairman of the Board, and Chief Executive OfficerCtrip.com International, Ltd.

Hong Seh LimPresidentMil Kered Inc.

John P. Lipsky Senior FellowThe Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University

Christopher S. LynchDirectorAIGNon-Executive ChairmanFreddie MacIndependent Consultant

Eff W. MartinFounding PartnerAnthos Capital

Susan R. McCaw President COM Investments Member Stanford University Board of Trustees

George E. McCownOperating DirectorAmerican Infrastructure MLP Fund

Burton J. McMurtryRetired Venture Capitalist

Anthony MeierGeneral PartnerThe Meier Group

Thomas C. MelzerManaging DirectorRiverVest Venture Partners

Gordon E. MooreChairman Emeritus of the BoardIntel Corporation

Robert B. OkunChief Investment Officer & Senior PartnerOak Hill Advisors, LP

Ken OlivierChairman EmeritusDodge & CoxInvestment Managers

James PoterbaPresident & CEONational Bureau of Economic ResearchMitsui Professor of EconomicsMIT

Michael RashesPrincipalBracebridge Capital

Kanwal RekhiManaging DirectorInventus Capital Partners

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Condoleezza Rice Denning Professor Center for Global Business and the EconomyStanford Graduate School of Business Thomas and Barbara Stephenson Senior Fellow on Public PolicyHoover Institution Stanford University

Jesse RogersCo-Founder & Managing DirectorAltamont Capital Partners

Eric Schmidt*Executive ChairmanAlphabet Inc.

Edward C. Schultz IIIEVP, California President HomeStreet Bank

Charles R. SchwabChairman of the BoardCharles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Eugene B. Shanks, Jr.Independent DirectorFreddie Mac, ACE Ltd.

Adam ShapiroCo-FounderEast Rock Capital

John F. Sandy SmithPartnerKilpatrick Townsend & Stockton, LLP

Thomas F. StephensonPartnerSequoia Capital

John T. ThompsonVice Chairman, Global CEO & Board Practice Heidrick & Struggles

David TopperOperating PartnerGeneral Atlantic, LLC

Victor TrioneChairman of the BoardLuther Burbank Savings

Mark A. WolfsonManaging PartnerJasper Ridge Partners

Ken XieFounder, Chairman & CEOFortinet, Inc.

Jianming YuFounder & Managing PartnerAdvantech Capital and Redview CapitalCo-Founder & Managing PartnerNew Horizon Capital

We welcome these new members in the 2017–18 year:David BizerManaging PartnerJasper Ridge Partners

Xiaowei LiChief Investment OfficerFullgoal Fund Management

Patricia McKennaPrincipal & Portfolio ManagerHotchkis and Wiley

Armen PanossianManaging Director & Portfolio ManagerOaktree Capital Management

Julianne Wagner*Stepped down during the 2016-17 academic year

†Died in 2017

John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building | 366 Galvez Street | Stanford, CA 94305-6015

siepr.stanford.edu