ANSI,TYJI

panel on Eglpt was delayed a bit because data from a crucial source (the census

ot I976) were not yet avai lable, and the responsible stat ist ical body in Eg1pt,

the CentraL Agency for Public Mobilizatj.on and Statistics or CAPMAS, had a

reputat ion for re luctance to refease dat.a, especial ly to non-Egl?t ions. I ts

director, Generaf Gamal Askar, was allegedly a prickly person who might not be

cooperative with the committee. I had the idea, in forming a panel on EgDT)t, to

include as usual several Eglptian authorities, and to desigrnate ceneral Askar and

myself as cochairs of the panel. I wrote to Askar explaining how the comrnittee

worked, the imporlance we gave to Egypt, the necessity to have several Egryptians

on the panel, and the value of having both the chairman of the NAS CorrRittee and

the head of CAPMAS involved in guiding the work. Askar agreed, and assumed

responsibility for assembling and initially processing the dat.a, while 1 assumed

primary responsibility for supervising and carrying out the analysis. There were

three meetings of the panel in Cairo. Jane Durch (of the committee sfaff) and I

did much of Ehe analysis and the composj-tion of the report. A gratifying fealure

of the cooperat ion of CAPMAS was that al l of the crucial tabulat ions of the 1976

census were made available to the panel, some before they were published in

EgDrpt. We also enjoyed the fu11 cooperation of the CAPMAS staff, in addition to

the invaluable help of the six Egyptian members of the pane1. The repor! includes

estimates of corrected age and sex distri-butions every five years from 1927 until

1977 (and at the census dates in 1960 and 1976) plus est imates of annual b i r th

rates, death rates, total fer t i l i ty , infant nortal i ty, and l i fe expectancy.

The report on China, which I wrote, has an only an indirect connection with

Ehe regular work of the NAS committee. I had first become involved with the

populat ion of China in the mid 1970's when frene Taeuber, short ly before her

death in 1974, became intrigued with dala Notestein had retained in unpublished

form: tabulations from a large demographic survey of rural China conducted in

t929-I93L by the Nanking Agriculturaf College under the direction of Lossing

Buck. The demographic information was coLLected in connection with a survey of

land usage in China. When the three volumes on land usage were published in 1,937,

Notestein and a Chinese colleague contribuEed some 40 pages on population, and

IUJ

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uauor{ 6uno^ eTqe aql xnoqE Ii\oH "

pTes oq'q ens 01 dn lqbnec I 'uool esuarpne

eql EuTA!aI seA I sV 'IqdE'r6ouap u-r EuTuTPJl ?1enpe:6 ro] peolqe 1u3s aq pTnoqs

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aq1 se qcns plEp Ieluauepunl uaqiq r!J .{'Ia]\ ssetFold xou pTnoc eurqS uT r{qde:6ouep

leqlraqolpTPsl.euJQcuT^cTToduoTlplndodlo]^lTTTqTsuodsaITeuTuloupeq

oqlrlaTuajdecTA!,EnHn]AIuaqJqlT$acua-Fpneuepeqf(ralelpaq.Frcsap)uoTssTul

sTr{1 uo aTTqlt 'sJar{der6ourep luawr:a^o6 pue ^lTsraArlm

TE'F?ua1od 01 '6uTtTaE

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TecTuqcal uaq?Eualtrs dTaq o? 086T uT pa{s! ser\ I 'uT!6e uoT?eTndod asauTqc q1'Ftr\

pe^ToAuT eulecaq I '19L67 u-F) sTs'dTeuE TErTfolsTq sTqi fallE slea]l le:a^as

'0eGT punore uo'FlPTndod Te:u asauTqC ar{1 :o} pal3n:lsuoc aq pTnoc ^lTTelrour

puE

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'aalxruluoc svN al{l }o slarred aq1 /tq paloTdura JaIPT asoql puE 'e3T:JV tPcTdorJ lo

.dqderEourep aq1 buTtrpn?s uT pasn uaeq peq ?Pql esoql a'rat\ saf,npaco'rd aqli 'TET'releuI

^el.rns {cng el{tr uo pa:{'rot{ peq lue:d ecuTs padoT!Aaf) sarnpaco:d xq s1sxTeue ro;

aTqelTns aq pTnol!\ lErl1 suoT?!Tnqel 'Ia^rns 7C6l-626I aql urol] 1da1 peq uTalsa?oN

qcrw{\ suoT?e1nqel eq? Jo jvtau{ 'aJTT :eq Jo sreai ls!T aq1 ur euTqC Jo uoTxETndod

aq?q1T&passolEueauoteqpeqoq'd'raqnaeJ'aua:l'euTr{3Te:nJto!ATl!lueseJdaJ

se^e^:nsaq?uof}Pe^Tlapsele.I^1TTe1.Iolupue.{'?TT.FlfaJaqlldaccPolEuTTIT&un

aJaa s.rEToqts lsou snq& "'(ea:ns

aq1 ]o secuelsunt:Tc aql ue^l6 6utslld:nS

1ou /{reTJ e 'aTqTp3.lcuT .dT'reeT3 aq o? sE lroT os aJa& euros esn!oaq 'aTTluacrad q19Z

aql laoTeq a:an salEr qleep :o r{lf-Fq i{cTq \ uT saTlTununnos uIo:J elep aql palcafa:

uta?seeoN lce] uT i'Kueu ox .|/rot pauaes ^a^f,ns

aql u-t puno] sale: 'llTTBlIour

pue I?TTT?IaJ aq&'8!6T uT elep tra^rns aql uo 'raded P paqsrlqnd osTE {ueJJ

[ 'e:estein

-1ow the

r'.:!vey as

r i th the

ns which

sui table

:k survey

rography

Ei!-i ttee .

:er t i l i ty

lc. IYJU.

irvolved

.echnical

on this

c-ier who

Another

+i^r i^^

ving the

19 women

, --hrough

u..re.

In 1982-83, white spending a year on leave from Princeton at the Center for

AdvancedStudiesintheBehavioralstudiesatPaloAlto, Ibecameinvolvedin

assisting professor Arthur wol-f of stanford university to analyze the resultss of

interviewshehadconductedinlgS0-lgSlwithel . ler lywomeninsevencommunit ies

in China. This involvement in Chinese demography' plus the availability of the

resul lsof thethreeChinesecensusesandthelargesamplesurveyonfert i l i ty ,

ledmetostarEananalysisofpopulats iorr t rendsinChinasince1952.Whenl

returned'EoPrincetonlcompletedlhiswork, f indingexcel lentconsl .sE'ency

between daEa from the censuses and the survey' I caLculateil schedules of

fertility, mortality, and first marriages over a thirty year time span' Methods

that had been used in the colnmittee work on other countries were empl0yed (and

sometimes extended). The results were written up in a manuscript of about 90

pages. I wondered where Eo find a publisher' T called Bob Lapham who was

approaching completion of his duties as study director of the NAS corunittee' and

askedhisadviceaboutpubl icat ion.Hesaid. 'whynot issuei tasareportof the

Coruni t tee?'Thecoryni t leehai istronglydesiredapanelonChina'butfel- t thaE

the daEa were insufficient; insteait of trying !o form a panel at such a late

date, ie could just name the chairman as in effect a one man panel on China'

Af ler thereportonChinawasissued,theAcaderyaskedmetocomeEo

Washinqtonforapressconference' I t turnedoutthatmos!of thereporterswere

interestsed in a sma]l point: the 1992 fertility survey had noted that the ratio

of male births Lo female birEhs reported for 1981 was higher at higher order than

at lowerorderbir ths, Istatedthatthisr iseinsexrauiowithorderofbir th

couldnotbetrue'r t indicatedthausomeofthehigherorderfema].ebir t 'hshad

beenomit tedfromthebir thhiscor ies. Iment ionedthatbecausetheone-chi ld

pol icyhai lbeeninlroducedrecent ly.higheror i lerbir thshadbecometaboo;

tespondents mighu fail to report a recent third bj-rth' and omit such a birth more

oft.en if i! were a female, because of the traditional pride in bearing a son' r

a lsoment ione. l rumorsofthereappear!ulceoffemaleinfant ic ide,andsaidthat

it mighE be a factor. It r,vas the possibility of infanticide that the press wanted

tohealabout. I repeatedthatthehighersexrat ioathigherorderswasevidence

105

it

:il

907

6qr uo:r: relr;l{ r:J:p3s p leq1 pacunouue ueuLrr!qc aqr :arr.ree pauorruaur proJxo Jpau

)i:!d.{eTrlclTc ?p acua:a]uoc crqde:bourap eql ?p raf,eT .lqauatEls sTr{? Jo Tpno^psTp

:erl:ee ,tur paqsrTqnd peq se^Tasueql ,taql ecurs elqrsuodsa:rr se TTaM sp ldeur

se/yr wsrTpu:not JTaql ?eql pTes J .alprT elrnb se/"r eurTl sTr{1 reffel .dI^J .euTqo ur

paITTI u!eq ppq sarqpq TrT6 000,OgZ aEr{? atu o? polnqr-rtle luauretets p papnlcuT

ure6e Tg-ilrlmE-o5E-=qt uT uoTlETncrod pT.zoru uo aTcT?:e uE raler sree.d aerr{J,

iursTleu;not aTqTsuodse::T Jo .{fTrn6 TETEI6uo-JE-EW punoJ I teql luaue?pls eq1 ro]

ldecxa a?aTduroc T punol: pue ,.re?leT

^ur peuTeeuoc ?!q1 anssr aq1 lo .[doc e prmog:

I'q16uaT:oJ 1nq ?ueluoc.roJ lou ,pelTpa aJa..,t s.zalleT eceds Jo a6e1:oqs e 3:o

asn!coq 1eg1 peppe pue ,paqsrTqnd uaaq pEq .raqlaT er{1 t!qa pTes aH .Teurno[ aql

01 aqT:csqns Xou pTp I leqf paureldxa I .taflal .,{u uaas aou peq f Jr pe{sp oqrvr

uos.rad Joruas E o? qEnorql ?nd seJlt r{1a1e;paunul pue ,eJr^pp Jeq pesoTToJ I

'uoTle6T1Tf ssncsTp of pezT-roqfne

auoauos q?Tit leads ol paluE/tr I ?eql ,!es ,Il.Froqfnp Jo uos:ed e Jo uorlua?le

ar{X ?aF 01 puE ,1ETE6E-o5E--!W Jo acr}Jo {:otr naN aq? TTec I fEr{f palseobns

eqs "rofe.zlsTuTurpe

pal]rb E sr oq^r 6Jr1'4 s,uos :ap1o .d:l 01 uorler?sn:] .,lur

passa:d:<e puE /ITeureq? uT asuodse: E aATaceJ loupTp I .lusrT'u:not aTqTsuodsa:tT

Jo ecuEfsur ue uoTlelonbsru :raqf puno} f leq? 6uT>[Jeu]aJ pue luauroXPls

e I{Dns apPur lou peq I lplil FururEldxa felfeT e aloJryt I . (pToTqel aqq uT lunocce

eq1 uo.r] ural'F aq1 dn palctd Eur^eq X11uap1zra1 pacnpo:1uT uaaq ppq Xcl1od plrqc

-auo eq? .re]fE paTTT>l ueaq peq saTqpq aTpura] O00,O9Z 1eq1 6utrtes s! eu pelonb

'PurqC Jo uoT?ETndod eql uo afcTlle up ur ,iETuouo-m-Er{J- ,rateT eT?lrT V.peTIT>{ uaeq peq saTqeq eTeual }o spuesnoql

^upur leqf bur^ps se

au polonb pToTqel e lnq ,f.rodeu euTr{J aql uo.,{:o1s,{a:1_ruof e patrrEc ecuareluoc

ssa.rd eq1 ?E pa?uesa:daj s.raded Jaqfo pue ?sod uolbuTqsEM aqI .eTqrsnpTdurr

,tTr{6'ttl s'rrr f T ?ErIl buTppe ,:equmu a6reT e q?Tn dn !uec pue peaq .,tur uT uoTlpTnclec

q6no.r e prp ^TluelJnfe.I

uaql ,uospar aqa aq ot tT a^aTTaq ?ou pTp I lpqt pa1!ade.r

I 'peTp e^eq 01 peeu pfno& ssTqeq TrT6 .6ueu .Aoq ,uoseej eqf are&r apT3T?uel:u-F

J:T pa{se uaql sp1'A I .uoTlpuuo]ur aTqeTreAe uro:g: pe6pn! aq 1ou pTnoc aprcTlueJuT

aTpura] Jo asneceq Jo seTlT.roqln! eq? .{q pesoddo sptq rllJTq aql esnecaq parJncco

uorss-nuo Jar{1aq/vr ?nq ,palxruo uaaq pEq sq1f,-Fq aTeural rap.ro .zeq6rr{ auos lpql

r omission

B of female

eo asked if

lge died. I

did a rough

rras highly

the press

rl quoted ne

o of China,

3r tshe one-

en from the

Ede such a

nsiance of

rl expressed

rator. She

to get the

ith sorneone

aior person

qbscribe to

hat because

r 1 onnfh T

leEe except

journalisml

reist again

been kil1ed

ccalism was

rry earlier

tchley Park

=: from The

Economistwaskeepingnotesandwouldprepareasununaryofourdiscussion.At

a coffee break I asked the journalist if he knew about the difficultv I had had

with his employer. ' r '11 say", he repl ied, ' I wrote the piece" He then told me

the reassuring news t'hat The Economist had rewised its procedures, and now

rout inelycheckedi tscorrespondencef i leswhi leprepar ingi tstext for

publ icat ion.

INVOLVEMENT IN THE WORLD FERTILITY SIIRVEY

The World Fertility survey, planned beginning in f.972, partially in

connection witsh the anticipated worlil Population Year of 19'14, was led by the

Internat ional StaEist ical Inst i tute ( IsI) , in col laborat ion wi th che IUSSP, and

the statistical office and the Population Division of the united Natlons ' It

beganoperat ioninlg?4withheadquartersestabt ishedinLondonunderan

outstandingstat ist ic ianMaurice( latserSirMaurice)Kendal l . I twasfunded

pr inar i lybyuNFPAandUsAlD.I tspr imaryact iv i tywastheorganizal ionofsample

surveys of fertility in ldcs: the desigm of questionnaires and samples for each

country,select ionandtrainingof interviewers,oversightof theconduc!of the

survey,andpart ic ipat ionini tsanalysis.Thesurveyswereconductedin42less

developed countries; they provided the richesu and best quality comparative datsa

available by the early 1980s on the demography of the third world'

Ibecameinvolvedinthedesignandanafysisof theWorldFert i l i ty

surveys,servrngonseveralcoruniEteesandmakingl l t r ipstoLondontovis i t the

headquarters on Grosvenor Gardens, These trips qave sue and me a very pleasant

elq)osure to London, we located a nice small comfortable hotel in Kniqrhtsbridge;

it was a colorful walk for me to the WFS office; we ate well in small restauranEs

we found; in the morning or evening I could take a stroll around the lake in Hyde

parki \^,e sanpled che tondon theater; and we (especially Sue) enjoyed the

marvel0us London museuns.

The most colorful e>q>erience we had with the WFs was a trip to Nepal (with

avis i ! toShr iLankathrownin).ThesurveydesigmfortheNepalsurveybegan

with a sEaff visit in 19?5; Ehe survey itself was cond.ucted in 1975; the country

Report$/aspubl is} tedin19??;anat ionalmeet ingwasschedule. l for the

L07