Anthony Perl Preparing for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to Make the Most of Canadas Coming Transport Revolutions Why will we launch a major redesign of our transport systems within 10 years ? Because we have reached the end of the Beverly Hillbillies oil story Conventional oil was the ideal fuel for the 20 th century American Dream, especially if one wasnt thinking about the 21 st century! Best Guess: Global Production Peak by 2012 Natural gas liquids Polar Deepwater Heavy oil (Tar Sands, etc.) Margin of error probably +/- 5 years Conventional wisdom: the mid-point of the worlds petroleum endowment gives plenty of time to plan adjustments physically different Geological reality: the second half of the earths oil endowment is physically different Most of the worlds oil is left in remote and fragile places Brazils Tupi field is almost 5 miles under the Atlantic, production cost >$80 a barrel. Polar oil test well Risks and costs of producing this extreme oil are much higher than the oil we have already burned A new energy infrastructure will be needed to extract and refine the remaining oil Fort Hills oil upgrader and Northern Gateway pipeline are Canadian examples Climate mitigation infrastructure would add even more costs, if we take it seriously CO 2 capture costs billions, consumes 1/3 of the energy What if we could avoid pouring trillions into new oil production facilities, by investing in infrastructure that avoids the need for oil? transport revolutions We can move people and freight without oil by launching transport revolutions This is not a transport revolution What is a transport revolution? substantial change less than 25 years A substantial change in a societys transport activity moving people or moving freight, or both that occurs in less than 25 years. 50% increase or decrease Substantial change means a 50% increase or decrease in transport activity or use of a new means of transport becomes part of the lives of 10% of the societys population. Transport revolutions will arrive whether we are ready or not because: Oil products power ~95% of global mobility Breaking the worlds oil addiction can only occur by reducing the flow through motorized vehicles The most positive transport revolution outcomes would draw on three proven paths to a post-carbon future: electric motors, GREATER use of electric motors, replacing internal combustion engines rail and water, GREATER use of rail and water, replacing road and air collectively managed, GREATER use of collectively managed, replacing personally managed transport Electric mobility is the key to energy transition because it can blend different renewable sources And use them to incrementally replace nonrenewable energy sources We have mature technology for post-carbon intercity land travel High-speed rail has been up and running since 1964 Chinas high-speed rail revolution is a game changer In 5 years, China will have doubled the worlds HSR infrastructure. And the Chinese wont stop there 2021: London Beijing by Train in 2 Days Chinas HSR manufacturing capacity will cut bullet train costs by 50% or more. Electric railways also offer proven technology for moving freight inland Wind power can boost the worlds most efficient mobility mode 90% of the world trade moves by water Marine transport is already the most carbon-efficient way of moving SkySail technology can reduce marine transports oil use by 50 80% Mobility modes that cannot run without oil will see more radical changes Hauling freight around N. America uses more oil than moving it between continents The economic risks of leaving oil dependent transport in place are high. Best case scenario: new technology can cut aviation fuel use by 50% This isnt enough to keep low cost air carriers aloft Aviation as a mass transportation mode has begun drawing to a close Buses with wings will either be replaced by cars, buses and trains for trips under 1,000 kilometres, or We ll see a sudden collapse in flying and driving How do we gear up for post carbon mobility? New plans New policy tools New leadership Step 1: We have to set aside outdated plans for a future that will never arrive Will Rogers once advised America that to get out of a hole, the first thing one has to do is: ! STOP DIGGING ! Why is this so hard to do? For every 10,000 engineers who can design highways and airports, there might be one who can develop an electric railroad This imbalance yields a distorted vision such as seeking new fuels for the same vehicles and infrastructure While ignoring the electric vehicles that already provide post carbon mobility Step 2: Launch a planning process for sustainable transportation will help us use the remaining oil wisely 1. 1.Set the key parameter - how much to reduce liquid petroleum fuel use in transport between start and end of the plan Estimate current transport activity and energy use Anticipate future available modes and energy use Develop a plausible balance of future modes that reflects desired activity levels and energy use Continually refine and improve energy use estimates and proposals for transport activity. Actual 1990 Li ke ly BAU project -tion 2025 Target 2025 Percentage differences of 2025 target from Actual 1990 Likely 2007 BAU 2025 Billions of barrels (bb) Richer countries %-40%-46% Poorer countries %+23%-22% World %-17%-35% Sustainable Oil Consumption Target Goal: 40% Less Oil Used To Move Americans by 2025 Values and totals in this table are rounded to aid comprehension Mode pkm in billions (except per capita) Fuel use per pkm, in MJ Total liquid fuel use in EJ (GJ for per capita) Total electric ity use in EJ (GJ for per capita) Local pkm in billions (except per capita) Non- local pkm in billions (except per capita) Fuel use per pkm in MJ Total liquid fuel use in EJ (GJ for per capita) Total electric ity use in EJ (GJ for per capita) Liquid fuel powere d pkm Electri- cally powere d pkm Personal vehicle (ICE)7, ,3002, ,300 Personal vehicle (electric) 1, ,000 Future transport Local public transport (ICE) Local public transport (electric) Bus (inter-city, ICE) Bus (inter-city, electric) Rail (inter-city, ICE) Rail (inter-city, electric) Aircraft (domestic) Aircraft (international) Airship (dom. and int.) Marine (dom. and int.) Totals9, ,0004, ,2002,500 Per capita30, , What Would a US Rail Renaissance Cost? $1 trillion would buy around 25,000 km of HSR, just over 15,500 miles $1 trillion more needed to electrify conventional lines. $280 billion per year for completely oil-free mobility infrastructure 2% of GDP per year Step 3: Draw up the policy tools for implementing post-carbon mobility and use them Introduce fiscal options that move beyond road socialism Enable public-private partnerships through infrastructure condominiums Encourage carbon sunsets through acquiring and repurposing stranded assets Monetizing urban road use opens the vault for post-carbon infrastructure Between Cities, a Divide Needs to be Bridged Between Public Roads and Private Rails New Electric Mobility Corridors Will Require an Infrastructure Condominium What about stranded assets? Many large airports are only connected to cities and surrounding regions by road Lyon St. Exupery is not an airport; it is a Travel-port Many European airports are prepared to shift from air to rail There has been a public spending spree on carbon mobility producers that are too big to fail What can we show for it? GM built the Train of Tomorrow in 1947 This photo is the only train product that GM now sells While China supplies fast trains, GM could return to building other trains and buses Leadership is a key ingredient in successful Transport Revolutions The Man Who Told Detroit What Had to Change, Before it was Too Late Donald Nelson appointed Chair of the War Production Board on January 16, 1942 WPB Production Order #1 canceled civilian auto production on February 10, 1942 America s Great Pause in Motorization Followed in 1942 43 3.8 million autos produced in 1941 143 autos produced in 1943 Gas and tire rationing yielded 40% vkm drop in two years Leaders need followers! 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