Anthropogenic Biomes, Land-Use Systems

Erle EllisErle EllisDepartment of Geography & Environmental Systems

University of Maryland, Baltimore County

German-US ConferenceTough Choices - Land Use under a Changing ClimateTough Choices - Land Use under a Changing Climate

Berlin, Germany October 2, 2008

Trends in Agriculture & Global Climate Change

• Agricultural Change and Global Climate Change

• Anthropogenic Biomes & Land Use Systems– What is Agriculture?– Rangelands, Croplands & Villages

• Measuring & modeling global changes in multi-functional agricultural mosaics

Overview

Cropland and Pasture 2000Ramankutty, N., A. T. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley.

2008. Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000. Global

Biogeochemical Cycles 22:GB1003.

15 million km2

12% of ice free land

28 million km2

22% of ice free land

Pasture

Cropland

Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, and N. J. Olejniczak. 2002. People on the land: Changes in global population and croplands during the 20th century. AMBIO 31:251-257.

Changes in Cropland Area: 1960 - 1990

-+

Land clearing: tropics (plantations, crops)Land abandoned: Americas, China, Eastern EuropeReturn to production (recent grain prices): USA

Hazell, P. and S. Wood. 2008. Drivers of change in global agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 363:495-515.

Agriculture Intensifies: 1960 - 2000Changes in Management

Agriculture and Global Climate Change• Agricultural Change

• Changes in Areas: Extent and Landscape structure• Changes in Management Practices: e.g. irrigation…

• Agriculture is a cause of global climate change– Biophysical: surface heat balance, aerosols

– Biogeochemistry: carbon balance, greenhouse gases

• Agriculture is impacted by global climate change

– Altered environments for crops and livestock– Adaptation by managers

• Management: irrigation practices, varieties…• Extent and landscape structure: land abandonment,

new irrigation systems, land clearing …

Ramankutty, N., J. A. Foley, J. Norman, and K. McSweeney. 2002. The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11:377-392.

Climate Change and Suitability for Crops

Colder regions get better Drier regions get worse

“Agriculture is embedded in Anthropogenic Biomes”

What is agriculture?• The cropped/grazed part of

landscapes• Agroecosystems• Part of land use systems• Part of multifunctional landscape

mosaics• Part of human systems• Part of Anthropogenic Biomes

(Anthromes)

Anthromes: global patterns of sustained human interaction with the biosphere.

Anthropogenic Biomesa new framework for ecology and earth science in the 21st century

Population density (urban, rural)

Croplands

Pastures

Irrigation

Rice

Tree & bare cover(Vegetation Continuous Fields)

ClusterAnalysis

Anthropogenic Biomes

Anthropogenic Biomes: An Empirical Approach

Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Wildlands 61 Wild forests

62 Sparse trees

63 Barren

Forested 51 Populated forests

52 Remote forests

Rangelands 41 Residential

42 Populated

43 Remote

Croplands 31 Residential irrigated

32 Residential rainfed mosaic

33 Populated irrigated

34 Populated rainfed

35 Remote

Anthropogenic Biomes of the World (v1)

*Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with > 25% pasture and/or cropland*

Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Urban & dense settlements 11 Urban12 Dense settlements

Villages 21 Rice

22 Irrigated23 Cropped & pastoral24 Pastoral

25 Rainfed26 Rainfed mosaic

16% global cropland

ResidentialPopulatedRemote

Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Anthropogenic Biomes of the World

Rangelands

40 million km2

Grazing land, minimal crops and forests

0.3 billion people6% global tree cover

CroplandsAtlas Mountains, Morocco

Remote RangelandsSouth Dakota, USA

Credit: © Alexander Smart. <http://ars.sdstate.edu/faculty/smarta/Range415/Image035.jpg>

Populated RangelandsAtlas Mountains, Morocco

Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Residential irrigated Populated rainfed

Remote

Anthropogenic Biomes of the World

Croplands

27 million km2

Crops mixed with other land uses

0.9 billion people25% global tree cover

Residential rainfed mosaicPopulated irrigated

53% global cropland

Remote CroplandsColombia Basin, Washington, USA

Credit: © GWMA <http://www.gwma.org/images/CroplandAdjusted.jpg>

Croplands - Residential Rainfed MosaicNormandy, France

Credit: © JH.Bernard. <http://pagesperso-orange.fr/rmc14/images/IMAGES-RMC/RMC-6.JPG>

Anthropogenic Biomes of the World

Ellis & Ramankutty, 2008

Villages

8 million km2

Densely populated agriculture rural population >100 person km-2

2.6 billion people4% global tree cover

RiceIrrigatedCropped & pastoral

PastoralRainfedRainfed mosaic

24% global cropland

Rainfed Mosaic Villages Jintang County, Sichuan Province, China

Rice VillagesDanyang County, Jiangsu Province, China

Anthropogenic Biomes

Globally

People 80% in urban and village anthromes

Land 22% wild biomes, 78% anthropogenic biomes

NPP 11% wild biomes, 89% anthropogenic biomes

32% in Croplands biomes

33% Forested biomes

CropsVillages 24% + 50% in populated croplands (>1 person

km-2)

Most irrigation and rice is in villages

>25% global tree cover is embedded in Croplands

UrbanDensely settled

rice

irrigated

irrigated crops & pasture

pastoralrainfed

rainfed mosaic

residential irrigated

residential rainfed mosaic

populated rainfed

populated irrigatedremote

ResidentialPopulated

RemotePopulated forests

Remote forestsWildlands

Rangelands

Global

pasture rainfedirrigated

herbbare

< treesVillages

Croplands

Land use (%)Land cover (%)

CultivatedAnthromes

8 million km2 24% global cropland

27 million km2 53% global cropland

Anthropogenic Biomes are Multifunctional Land Mosaics

– Mixtures of different land uses and land covers.

– Urban areas are embedded in agricultural areas.

– Croplands are mixed with trees and housing.

– Managed vegetation is mixed with semi-natural vegetation (e.g. croplands in rangelands and forests).

– Hillslopes & mountains are often islands of semi-natural vegetation

© Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Jintang 500m Sample Cell

R05_C12Landsat (28.5m)

© Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Jintang 500m Sample Cell

R05_C12IKONOS

© Erle C. Ellis, 2005

2001IKONOS

1 km2 Sample

Tropical Hilly Region

DIANBAI

October 27, 2001

Ellis et al., 2006

1945Aerial

1 km2 Sample

Tropical Hilly Region

DIANBAI

May 14, 1944

Ellis et al., 2006

COVERChange

1945 - 2001

-7 - -3

-3 - -1

0

1 - 3

4 - 7

- RegenerationVegetation

+ Denudation

1 km2 Sample

Tropical Hilly Region

DIANBAI

Ellis et al., 2006

Brodie, P. 1990. Crescent over Cathay: China and ICI, 1898 to 1956. Oxford University Press, New York.

chem fertilizer appl picture

© Erle C. Ellis, 2002

~25% of Global N Fertilizer Use

household survey

© Erle C. Ellis, 2005

Agricultural Mosaics and Climate Change

Challenges• Observing global changes in agricultural

mosaics• Modeling interactions between climate

and management (adaptation & feedbacks)

A way forward….• Global Sampling, Measurement and

Modeling of Agricultural Landscape Processes

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