Anthropogenic Climate Change For

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Anthropogenic climate change for

1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3

model under updated emissions scenarios

T.C. Johns, J.M. Gregory, W.J. Ingram,C.E. Johnson, A. Jones, J.A. Lowe,J.F.B. Mitchell, D.L. Roberts, D.M.H. Sexton,D.S. Stevenson, S.F.B. Tett, and M.J. Woodage

Hadley Centre technical notes 22


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Annual global surface air temperature: Control

200 400 600 800 1000Year

286.2

286.4

286.6

286.8

287.0

287.2

Tempe

rature(K)

1025 10251015

1005

1015

1015

1005995985 985

1005

1015

995

1015

1015

1015

1005

(a) HadCM3: DJF

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090

o

S

45oS

0

45oN

90oN

1010

1010

1020

10101000985

1020

1020

1000

1020

985

(b) HadCM3: JJA

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090

o

S

45oS

0

45oN

90oN

1015 1015

1015

1005

10151015100

5

1015

1005995

995

985

1015

1015

985985

1005

1025

(c) Analysis: DJF

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN 1010

1010

10101000

985

1020 1020

1020

1010

1000

1020

985

1020

10101020

(d) Analysis: JJA

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN


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(a) DJF: Globe

90oS60oS30oS030oN60oN90oN 0Latitude

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Precipitation

(mm/day)

HadCM3CMAP

(b) JJA: Globe


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Precipitation

(mm/day)

HadCM3CMAP

(c) DJF: Land


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Precipitation(mm/day)

HadCM3CMAP

(d) JJA: Land


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


HadCM3CMAP

(e) DJF: Sea


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


HadCM3CMAP

(f) JJA: Sea


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


HadCM3CMAP


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1

1

2

21

5

2

512

1

2

2510

5

2

15

10521

21

10

1

12

1

25

52

110

1

1

1

10

5

5

1

(a) HadCM3: DJF

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN

111

2

2

2

151

1

1

2

2

22

25

2 21

2

151012510

11

5

5

5

5

101021

5

2

1

5

(b) HadCM3: JJA

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN

1

122

2

5

512

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1 1 1 222

10

5

1

2

10

5

10

1

122

5

1

5

5

2

1

1

5

(c) CMAP: DJF

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN

1

1 12

105

11

1 22

2

2 2

2

2

5 1 1

1

10 5

1

1

10

2

5

1

21

5 11

10

11

2

1

5

(d) CMAP: JJA

180 90oW 0 90oE 18090oS

45oS

0

45oN

90oN


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(a) Sulphate burden

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Burden(mg[S]m2)

A2

B2

A1FI

(b) Sulphate forcing

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

Forcing(Wm2)

DirectIndirect

B2

A2

A1FI

B2

A2A1FI

(c) Burden to emissions ratio

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

0.000

0.002

0.004

0.006

0.008

0.010

0.012

Ratio:(mg[S]m2/Tg[S]yr1) A2

B2

(d) Forcing normalized by sulphur burden

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

8

6

4

2

0

Forcing(Wm2 /mg[S]m2)

DirectIndirect

A2

B2


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Radiative forcing

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

2

0

2

4

6

8

W/m

2

G92GB2A2B2A1FI


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(a) Global Mean Temperatures

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

2

0

2

4

6

1.5mTemperature(K)

G92GB2B2A2A1FI

CTLObserved (UEAMOHSST6)

(b) Land and Sea Temperatures

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1.5mTemperature(K)

G92GB2B2A2A1FI

LandSea


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Sea level rise due to thermal expansion

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

Sealevel(m)

G92

GB2B2A2A1FI


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NHemi sea ice area

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

4

6

8

10

12

14

Area(106 km

2)

G92GB2B2A2A1FI

NHemi sea ice volume

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

5

10

15

20

25

30

Volume(103 km

3)

G92GB2B2A2A1FI


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(a)

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Year

0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

TotalPrecipitation(m

m/day)

G92GB2B2

A2A1FI

LAND

(b)

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

TotalPrecip

itation(mm/day) G92

GB2B2A2A1FI

SEA


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(a) A2CTL (2080s): Temperature (K)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

0 2 4 6 8

(b) A1FICTL (2080s): Temperature (K)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

0 2 4 6 8

(c) B2CTL (2080s): Temperature (K)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

0 2 4 6 8

(d) B2GB2 (2080s): Temperature (K)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

1 0 1 2 3


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(a) A2CTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

2 0 2

(b) A1FICTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

2 0 2

(c) B2CTL (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

2 0 2

(d) B2GB2 (DJF 2080s): Precip (mm/day)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E 18090S

45S

0

45N

90N

2 0 2


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(a) A2CTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(b) A1FICTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(c) B2CTL (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(d) B2GB2 (DJF 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30


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(a) A2CTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E

90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(b) A1FICTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E

90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(c) B2CTL (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

(d) B2GB2 (JJA 2080s): Soil moisture (mm)

180 135W 90W 45W 0 45E 90E 135E90S

45S

0

45N

90N

30 0 30

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