Anticipating 2025: Changing Technologies and Anticipating 2025: Changing Technologies and Intermodal Linkages in Aerial, Highway, Marine, and Intermodal Linkages in Aerial, Highway, Marine, and Rail Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, Rail Transportation in the Northeast Corridor, University of Delaware, October 19 2007University of Delaware, October 19 2007

The Insertion of The Insertion of BostWash within the BostWash within the Global and National Global and National Freight FrameworksFreight FrameworksJean-Paul RodrigueAssociate Professor, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

Email: ecojpr@hofstra.eduPaper available at:http://people.hofstra.edu/faculty/Jean-paul_Rodrigue

Freight Frameworks: From Global to Freight Frameworks: From Global to LocalLocal

CommodityChains

Transportation

Global

Regional

Local

Production

Distribution

Consumption

Gateways

Corridors

Terminals

Integrated Transport Systems

UPS Willow Springs Distribution Center, ChicagoUPS Willow Springs Distribution Center, Chicago

Insertion in the Global Trade FrameworkInsertion in the Global Trade Framework

Imbalanced TradeImbalanced TradeImbalanced Container Imbalanced Container

FlowsFlowsCommodity ChainsCommodity Chains

Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 2005Trade Routes, 2005

1.8

(-18%

)

4.3 (+30%)USAUSA6.1

AsiaAsia13.9 (+148%)

23.8

8.9

3.3

(+14

%)9.9 (+120%

)

5.6 (+55%)

17.2

11.7

9.9

EuropeEurope

Million TEUs

Growth (2000-2005)

Imports (Million TEUs)

Exports (Million TEUs)

Balance of Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2006 (in millions of TEUs)

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

01995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Europe/USA

Asia/Europe

Asia/USA

Sectors of American Imports of Asian Goods Through Maritime Container Shipping, 2004 (in TEUs)

0 300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000 1,800,000

Big box retailer

Furniture

Electronics

Appliances

Auto parts

Tires

Shoes

Toys

Electrical equipment

Machinery

Textiles

Apparel

Commodity Chains and Added ValueCommodity Chains and Added Value

Commodity chain

Adde

d va

lue

Low

High

Manufacturing

R&D Globalization

DistributionDesign

Branding Marketing

Sales / Service

Concept Logistics

Insertion in the Transportation and Insertion in the Transportation and Logistical FrameworkLogistical Framework

Gateways and CorridorsGateways and CorridorsContainerization and the Velocity of FreightContainerization and the Velocity of Freight

Shipping NetworksShipping NetworksGlobal Port OperatorsGlobal Port Operators

APL Distribution Center, Shenzhen, ChinaAPL Distribution Center, Shenzhen, China

Elements of the Maritime / Land Elements of the Maritime / Land InterfaceInterface

Port System

Foreland (Shipping Network)

Road Rail Coastal / Fluvial

Hinterland (FDC)

Corridors and Hubs

Gateways

Mari

tim

e F

reig

ht

Mari

tim

e F

reig

ht

Dis

trib

uti

on

Dis

trib

uti

on

Inla

nd

Fre

igh

tIn

lan

d F

reig

ht

Dis

trib

uti

on

Dis

trib

uti

on

Traffic at the 50 Largest Container Ports, Traffic at the 50 Largest Container Ports, 20052005

Dubai

Tacoma

Santos

Jeddah

Seattle

Salalah

Oakland

Colombo

Savannah

Melbourne

Long BeachCharleston

Nhava Sheva

Los Angeles

Hampton Roads

New York/New Jersey

Kobe

Tokyo

BusanXiamen

Ningbo

Nagoya

Manila

Dalian

Tianjin

Keelung

Yokohama

Shenzhen Shanghai

Quingdao

Singapore

Kaohsiung

Hong KongGuangzhou

Port Kalang

Ho Chi Minh

Laem Chabang

Tanjung Priok

Tanjung Pelepas

LeHavre

Hamburg

Antwerp

Valencia

Rotterdam

Barcelona

Algeciras

Felixstowe

Gioia Tauro

Bremen/Bremerhafen

Pacific Asia Europe

TEU

Less than 2 million

2 to 4 million

4 to 7 million

7 to 10 million

More than 10 million

World Container Traffic, 1980-2005. Reaching Peak Growth?

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

TEU

Divergence

Adoption Acceleration Peak Growth Maturity

1966-1992

1992-2002

2002-2010(?) 2010(?) -

The Velocity of FreightThe Velocity of Freight

Push Logistics

Shipment Speed

Transshipment Speed

Pull Logistics

Containerization

Speed barrier

Logistical threshold

Future improvements

Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced by OOCL, 2006by OOCL, 2006

Fos

Tokyo

Genoa

Ningbo

Hamburg

Shanghai

Le Havre

KaohsiungHong Kong

Singapore

Barcelona

Rotterdam

Port Kelang

Southampton

Laem Chabang

OaklandLos Angeles

NorfolkNew York

Charleston

Atlantic Express (ATX)

European Union / Mediterranean (EUM)

South China Express (SCX)

27 Days

49 Days

39 Days

Note: Paths are approximate

Pacific Asia Europe

APM Terminals

Dubai Ports World

Hutchison Port Holdings

Port of Singapore Authority

Eurogate

Stevedoring Services of America

Dedicated Maritime Container TerminalsMajort Port Holdings, 2007

Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

Insertion in the Continental FrameworkInsertion in the Continental Framework

HinterlandsHinterlandsTrade CorridorsTrade Corridors

LandbridgesLandbridges

APL “Australia” entering San Francisco HarborAPL “Australia” entering San Francisco Harbor

Hinterland Setting and Major Economic Hinterland Setting and Major Economic RegionsRegions

North AmericaNorth America Western EuropeWestern Europe East and Southeast AsiaEast and Southeast Asia

Coastal concentrationLandbridge connections

Inland concentrationCoastal gateways

Coastal concentrationLow hinterland access

Hinterland intensity Freight Corridor hierarchy Gateway hierarchy

Main North American Trade Corridors Main North American Trade Corridors and Metropolitan Freight Centersand Metropolitan Freight Centers

Miami

Boston

Dallas

Denver

Norfolk

Atlanta

Memphis

Halifax

Detroit

Toronto

Chicago

Houston

Phoenix

Seattle

Calgary

Savannah

Edmonton

Winnipeg

Montreal

New York

Portland

Baltimore

Charlotte

Cleveland

St. Louis

San Diego

Vancouver

Charleston

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

New Orleans

Kansas City

Minneapolis

Los Angeles

Philadelphia

Oklahoma Ci ty

San Francisco

Salt Lake City

Hub

Gateway

Regina

Calgary

Memphis

Chicago

Winnipeg

St LouisKansas City

Minneapolis

Dallas / Fort Worth

Houston

Savannah

Montreal

Vancouver

Charleston

Hampton Roads

New York/New Jersey

Tacoma

Seattle

Oakland

Long BeachLos Angeles

Potential Location of Major Transmodal Rail Facilities:Maritime Gateways and Inland Hubs

Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

Maritime Rail Gateway

Transmodal Rail Hub

Beware of Future Expectations: The Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear ThinkingFallacies of Linear Thinking

Beware of Future Expectations: The Fallacies of Linear Thinking (Projected TEU Traffic, Port of NY/NJ)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Mill

ion

TEU

s

Real (- 2006)

Projected

Monthly Traffic, Port of Los Angeles (TEUs)

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Janua

ry

Februa

ryMarc

hApril

MayJu

neJu

ly

August

Septem

ber

Octobe

r

November

Decem

ber

2004

2005

2006

2007

Insertion in the Regional FrameworkInsertion in the Regional Framework

Distribution ClustersDistribution ClustersRegional Freight DistributionRegional Freight Distribution

Port RegionalizationPort Regionalization

““Maersk Sealand” Locomotive, Landers Yard (NS), ChicagoMaersk Sealand” Locomotive, Landers Yard (NS), Chicago

The “Last Mile” in Freight DistributionThe “Last Mile” in Freight Distribution

GatewayInland

TerminalDistribution

Center

Capacity

Frequency

Corridor Customer

“Last Mile”

Segment

GLOBALGLOBAL HINTERLANDHINTERLAND REGIONALREGIONALLOCALLOCAL

Shipping Network

MassificationMassification AtomizationAtomization

Proximity and Intermediacy for Proximity and Intermediacy for Distribution ClustersDistribution Clusters

DCDC

DCDCDCDC

Long distance transport corridor

Intermediacy

Proxim

ity

Proximity

MetropolitanMetropolitanAreaArea

Main Access Corridors to the East CoastMain Access Corridors to the East Coast

Boston – Washington Corridor: Volume to Boston – Washington Corridor: Volume to Capacity RatioCapacity Ratio

Port Inland Distribution Network and Port Inland Distribution Network and Freight ClustersFreight Clusters

Translisft crane, NS Rutherford yard, PATranslisft crane, NS Rutherford yard, PA

Conclusion: Global Processes, Local Conclusion: Global Processes, Local RealitiesRealities

Multiscalar Freight InsertionMultiscalar Freight InsertionModal Shift (rail corridors)Modal Shift (rail corridors)

Freight Diversion (regionalization)Freight Diversion (regionalization)