Volume 1, Number 1515 November 2018

“A player can tick all the boxes he wants to, but if said boxes don’t amount to the kind of player a coach wants in his team, there’s little anyone can do about it.” – Simnikiwe Xabanisa writing in City Press

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Chalk One Up in the Win Column

Almost without exception, the press coverage since the win against France has been guardedly positive across most local media outlets.

The inimitable Tank Lanning (@TankLanning) was perhaps the most accurate when he described the situation thus: “Last week [in London], the Boks were the width of a rugby post away from beating England at Twickenham. This week, they were a layer of dubbin away from losing to the French in Paris.”

Indeed, right up the last few minutes at Stade de France, it looked like the Springboks were on for a second narrow defeat in a row. It was just that last-gasp try (in the 85th minute) by Bongi Mbonambi that sealed the win.

Tank’s analysis is typically astute and well worth reading in full. In a nutshell, he looks at the statistics from the match, finds much about which to be positive and several things that need work. All in all, the whole article is pretty well summed up in his headline: “Bok glass is half full”.

Across on Sport24, Herman Mostert has a piece entitled “5 talking points: France v Springboks”, in which he picks out five key moments in the match. The first of these is the extra-time try mentioned above. Associated with that is his second talking point: the penalty that Francois Louw won, that led to the line-out and sequence of play that resulted in the match-winning try.

 

 

 

Herman’s third and fourth talking points are the high hit on Kolbe that went unpunished and Faf’s questionable scrum put-ins, both worthy of discussion. He wraps up his analysis in a manner that echoes Tank’s assessment above: “A feel-good Bok victory, but...”

And over on Rugby365.com, Warren Fortune(@FortuneWarren) reckons the Boks suffer from 'tunnel vision' and he suggests that they’ll have to be a whole lot smarter in their decision-making against Scotland this weekend than they were against France. He has a point:

“The Boks were too predictable for large periods of their 29-26 win against France in Paris last weekend. Their attack was devoid of any creativity and they seemed intent on employing the box kick with varying degrees of success.”

KEY TOPICS IN THIS NEWSLETTER

Boks Are Not a Fantasy League TeamRassie’s Murrayfield dilemmaSaffa Duo May be Key for Scotland

 

Blitzbokke Preparation in Final StretchThe World Record that Wasn’t Rassie’s Scrumhalf Conundrum

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Boks Are Not a Fantasy League Team

A dose of what was probably unwelcome reality was dished out in City Press this past Sunday when Simnikiwe Xabanisa, reminded fans that Springbok coach and director of rugby at SA Rugby, Rassie Erasmus, is not selecting a fantasy rugby team.

Although writing primarily about Akker van der Merwe fans, his larger point is relevant to all players that fans feel are not selected when they, the fans, think that they should be selected.

 

From the outcry on social media, Xabanisa suggests that fans appear to be hoping that the sheer weight of their indignation will change Rassie’s decision not to pick van der Merwe for the end-of-year tour. In so doing he delves into the interesting factors the coach had to weigh up in the hooker position for the End Of Year Tour.

For those interested in how he got to the punch line (below) click the link above for the full story. For those who want to cut to the chase, he writes:

“The bigger point here is that, while being selected is a democratic right, being on form doesn’t turn it into a birthright. A player can tick all the boxes he wants to, but if said boxes don’t amount to the kind of player a coach wants in his team, there’s little anyone can do about it.

“In all the time I’ve written about rugby, I’ve never seen a Springbok Fans’ XV trot on to the field to start a test on any given Saturday.” True that.

Rassie Alludes to Selection Consistency

Vociferous rugby commentator, Mark Keohane, believes that Rassie Erasmus is unlikely to make many changes to his match day squad for Saturday, in an effort to not lose winning momentum.

He quotes Erasmus speaking of the “balancing act” he faced in terms of selection. Keohane adds: “While he will be wanting to build depth for the next year’s World Cup, he also faces the statistic of just a 50% win ratio (6 from 12) this year and will want to be trying to build winning momentum leading into next year.”

And while he concedes that the Boks will be forcedly without the services of eighth man Warren Whiteley and scrum half Faf De Klerk for Saturday (both reported on elsewhere in this issue), he doesn’t expect Erasmus to make many other changes.

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Rassie’s Murrayfield dilemma

Writing in SA Rugby magazine, Jon Cardinelli suggests that Rassie Erasmus faces a tough callbetween managing his top players and fielding a pack that can neutralise Scotland’s breakdown bandits.

It’s a good point, especially with the doubt over Warren Whitely's fitness. But what it fails to consider fully is the incredible depth that South Africa has among the loose forwards.

Or perhaps not; Cardinelli does note that Erasmus has blooded 19 new caps over the past 12 Tests and experimented with combinations. That said, he does ask a pertinent question: "So, should Erasmus pick his strongest available side ahead of the matches against Scotland and Wales with a view to banking those results?"

Most fans would say absolutely: always pick the strongest 22 players available on match day. But that may be a strategy from a bygone era when rugby tours lasted three months and were only repeated every decade or so.

 

As Cardinelli writes:

"And yet his decision may not be so simple when one considers the bigger picture. Erasmus has promised to give the less experienced players as well as those on the fringes more game time on this tour. He also has a responsibility to rest and manage some of the first-choice stars, though, as they will have key roles to play at the 2019 World Cup."

Saffa Duo May be Key for Scotland

Former Scotland and South Africa international player, John Allan, believes that South African-born props Allan Dell and WP Nel will have a key role to play at Murrayfield on Saturday. He spoke to SA Rugby magazine's Dylan Jack.

Allan told Jack: "They will give the Boks respect. But sometimes if you give the opposition too much respect, it can work against you."

"On the other hand, they will have that extra little bit of motivation because they were born in South Africa, are now Scottish and will want to prove a point. They will want to prove that if they were still in South Africa, they would be there, that they are better than the Boks," continued Allan.

But the two props are not the only former South Africans likely to play for Scotland on Saturday. Former Golden Lions eighth man Josh Strauss is also likely to be involved.

 

Allan adds: "If Scotland matches them upfront and manages to secure ball, I think they have a better attacking backline than the Boks. They also make better decisions. Sometimes the Bok backline kicks the ball away at the wrong time and doesn’t always convert pressure into points.

If I was Rassie Erasmus, I would be telling the forwards that the game will be won and lost upfront."

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Blitzbokke Preparation in Final Stretch

Tomorrow it will be two weeks until the start of the 2018/2019 HSBC World Rugby Sevens Series in Dubai and the second round follows just a week later in Cape Town.

The Blitzbokke began final preparations earlier in the month after the availability (or not) of key players was clarified. The bottom line is that some reshuffling has been necessitated by a number of regulars moving to fifteens and some players nursing injuries.

Seabelo Senatla, Kwagga Smith, Dylan Sage, Ruhan Nel, Rhyno Smith and Tim Agaba are concentrating on the 15-man game for now, while Cecil Afrika, Stedman Gans and Heino Bezuidenhout have injuries.

For Springbok Sevens coach Neil Powell, injuries are part and parcel of rugby. “We did broaden our base of players over the last two seasons and that will help us...I am confident that we will put out a very competitive team for Dubai and Cape Town,” he said.

“All the players have a good understanding of what is expected of them, both in culture and play, so should fit in nicely when called upon,” he explained.

The squad for Dubai and Cape Town as it currently stands: Chris Dry, Impi Visser, Ryan Oosthuizen, Philip Snyman, Zain Davids, Kyle Brown, Selvyn Davids, Dewald Human, Justin Geduld, Werner Kok, Siviwe Soyizwapi, Stedman Gans, Cecil Afrika, Rosko Specman, Branco du Preez, Muller du Plessis, Mfundo Ndhlovu, James Murphy & JC Pretorius.

The World Record that Wasn’t

A piece in last week’s newsletter (second story) highlighted the possibility that one or both of Namibia or New Zealand could establish a new world record for the number of consecutive matches in which they scored four or more tries. Both had equalled the current record (held by New Zealand and accomplished in 2016) of 12 matches.

First up was Nambia, taking on Russia at the Kuban Stadium in Krasnodar, Russia (about 300km north of Sochi) and it didn’t go well. At halftime the Namibians were trailing 19-6 and the Russians put the boot in after the break, scoring two quick tries both of which were converted. In the end, Namibia lost the match 47-20 and scored only two tries.

Shortly thereafter, New Zealand took on England at Twickenham and was also trailing at the break: 15-0. The All Blacks came back to win 15-16 in the second half but scored a solitary try in the process, meaning that they too failed to break the record. So the current record stands, which may not displease New Zealand but Namibia will more than likely be ruing a lost opportunity.

Rassie’s Scrumhalf Conundrum

It’s fascinating to watch the assembled punditry on social media of a Saturday when the Springboks are playing. The run up to the game and the post mortems for days afterwards can also b entertaining. [Mea Culpa, Twitter is my forum for public venting – Ed.]

This week, one of the threads that stood out, interestingly, on Twitter, was started by Judge Rugby (@JudgeRugby) in which he suggested a big debate around the backup to Faf de Klerk.

Indeed, this has been a big talking point since the start of the Rugby Championship, probably exacerbated by the game time given to Faf and the revolving door in front of his backup on the bench.

But to be fair to coach Rassie, he made his intentions very clear, even before the June internationals began. At the end of May he told Jacques van der Westhuyzen at IOL Sport that he’s confident the problematic scrumhalf position will be sorted out before next year’s World Cup.

 

Van der Westhuyzen wrote further that: “There is little doubt De Klerk, with 11 Bok caps [he has 21 caps now - Ed] and who’s coming off a stellar season with Sale after being named their Player of the Year, will be Erasmus’s first choice against England later this month and possibly also in the Rugby Championship.

“He will be Erasmus’s banker, but it is hoped the three rookies in the current squad - Ivan van Zyl, 22, Cameron Wright, 24, and Embrose Papier, 21, will develop into scrumhalves who will in future be talked about as good enough for any Bok team.”

That Rassie hasn’t given many of them a lot of game is probably down to the quality of opposition the Springboks have faced over this period. This has caused frustration in some quarters, as exemplified by Wynona Louw writing on IOL Sport, who wonders what, exactly, is the plan with Embrose Papier.

But with Faf released back to his club this week, she may get her answer sooner rather than later as Rassie must now obviously give  the youngsters a shot. Indeed, Oom Rugby (@Oom_Rugby) tweeted on Tuesday that he had heard that Papier is going to get his first start this weekend.

So, could this weekend be a chance to shine for Embrose Cheldon Papier? We certainly hope so.

But a word of caution: the Scots will be no pushovers. Oom Rugby also tweeted a list of Scotland’s last ten tests at Murrayfield – they lost one, to New Zealand, by only five points. 

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The Weekend Rugby Action

Just as it was last weekend, the only rugby you’re likely to watch this Saturday will be the November Tests. (Schedule alongside, local times).

It’s a reasonably safe bet that Italy vs Australia (3pm); England vs Japan (5pm), Scotland vs South Africa (7:20pm) and Ireland vs New Zealand (9pm) will be broadcast. The France vs Argentina (10pm) fixture may be on another channel because it clashes with the Irish match.

The only other decent quality rugby happening this weekend appears as it did last weekend: the English Premiership. Some of those matches may be broadcast locally but if you really want to see them you may need an internet connection, a VPN and an overseas streaming provider.

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