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April 28, 2011 Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. K K LINE Vision 100 LINE Vision 100 Revisions to the Medium-Term Management Plan “New Challenges”

“K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Page 1: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

April 28, 2011Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd.

““KK”” LINE Vision 100LINE Vision 100

Revisions to the Medium-Term Management Plan“New Challenges”

Page 2: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

2

Contents

・ Background to the revisions and new measures pp. 3 - 6・ Review of business strategies by segment

Containership business pp. 7 - 8Dry bulk business pp. 9 - 10 Car carrier business pp. 11 - 12Energy transportation business pp. 13 - 14Heavy lifter and Offshore support vessel businesses p. 15 Freight forwarding/Harbor transportation business p. 16

・ Changes in fleet size and investment p. 17 ・ Changes in income and major financial indicators p. 18・ Quantitative targets (the newly revised medium-term management plan)

p. 19

Page 3: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Background Behind Revisions to “K” Line Vision 100 Medium-Term Management Plan

Revision Background and New Measures (1)

April 2011 “K” LINE Vision 100 - New ChallengesFinancial results in FY 2010 exceeded initial plans.However, there may be effects from the recent earthquake and there are still many uncertain elements. In response to changes in market structures including energy supply and demand and the emergence ofdeveloping countries, a new medium-term management plan based on the “K” LINE Vision 100 was adopted to expand stable earning and achieve sustainable growth.

January 2008 “K” LINE Vision 100 KV2010This plan was established as an emergency measure in response to the financial recession led bythe collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the vastly different business environment it produced.

April 2008 “K” LINE Vision 100This medium-term management plan was established against a backdrop of growing marinetransport demand resulting from global economic growth, focusing on the mid-2010s, whilealso extending its outlook to encompass the company’s 100th Anniversary in 2019.The theme of the plan was “synergy for all and sustainable growth.”

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Background to the Revisions and New Measures (2)

Activities to promote environmental protectionEstablished safe ship operation and management structure

Borderless management through the best and

strongest organization

Proper allocation of strategic investment

and management resources

Improvement of corporate value and complete

risk management

“K”LINE Vision 100

Return to profitability in FY2010 and early resumption of dividends

Expansion of stable earnings base and sustainable growth

Improvement and strengthening of financial makeup

“K”LINE Vision 100 KV 2010

Return to profitability in FY2010 and early resumption of dividend payments–Both targets achieved

Ordinary income moves back into the black : FY2010 Plan - ¥11.0 billion Results - ¥47.4 billion Early resumption of dividends : FY2010 results – 9.5-yen annual dividend

Page 5: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Background to the Revisions and New Measures (3)

Expansion of a stable earnings base and sustainable growth

Recovery in the business environment has been inconsistent and the Great East Japan Earthquake has had an effect.

Containership business : Business environment is uncertain in FY2011. Preparations will be made to accommodate increase in demand starting in FY2012.

Dry bulk business : Fleet expansion will continue in order to respond to global economic recovery beginning in FY2011.

Car carrier business : The business to be reconstructed to respond to structural changes in the transport of completely built-up cars.

Energy transportation business : Appropriate measures taken to respond to changes in global energy demand (increased demand for LNG and accelerated energy development).

Heavy lifter and Offshore support vessel businesses : Appropriate measures taken to respond to growing business areas including energy development.

Total logistics business : Appropriate measures taken to respond to steady recovery of infrastructure upgrades, air freight and other transport demands.

Page 6: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Background to the Revisions and New Measures (4)

Strategic investment in response to changes in marketstructures and increase in demand

Investment in creation of a flexible fleet and in new businessesOngoing measures for improvement and strengthening of financial makeup

Cash Flows from Investments

FY2010 Plan: ¥85.0 billion Results: ¥78.3 billion

FY2011 Plan: ¥95.0 billion (1) Structural improvements: ¥23.0 billion * Purchase of second-hand vessels and Conversion to FOC

(Flag of Convenience) vessels

(2) New business development: ¥37.0 billion *Offshore support vessels, Heavy lifters, Chemical tankers, etc.

FY2012 Plan: ¥80.0 billionFY2013 Plan: ¥65.0 billion

Three-year total for 2011 – 2013: ¥240 billion

Page 7: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Review of Business Strategies by Segment: Containership Business

Business Environment• Cargo movements improved substantially in 2010.• Business will experience moderate growth in

2011 and thereafter.• There were concerns about overreaction in the

market in response to increased construction of large-size newbuildings in early 2011, but the issue will be resolved with construction set to peak in the summer.

• Supply and demand will balance out in 2012 and thereafter.

Cargo Movements/Shipping Capacity Forecast2010 2011 2012-15

North America 17% 5% 6%Europe 17% 5% 6%

North-South 20% 10% 10%Inter-Asia 10% 7% 8%Others 10% 7% 8%

Total cargo movement demand 14% 7% 8%

* 1% has been added to demand for cargo movement demand each year to take into account the increase in berthing days in conjunction with the use of larger vessels.

Worldwide Forecast for Containership Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand

0

5

10

15

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

( mil

Teu

)

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

Forecast Demand

Forecast Supply

Supply-Demand Ratio

Sources: Materials from Drewry, Alphaliner, and other sources and “K” Line forecasts.

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Review of Business Strategies by Segment: Containership BusinessBusiness Strategy• Continue additional efforts to restore freight charges• Expand the fleet through the purchase of cost-competitive second-hand vessels, raise utilization

rates for short-term disposable and returnable vessels, and respond to risks for supply and demand fluctuation(Short-term disposable vessels: Short-term charter vessels and FOC vessels that can be disposed of within one year.)

• Develop business with an emphasis on the Intra-Asia and North-South routes• Make additional efforts to rationalize ship operations and reduce costs• Consider fleet upgrade plans including newly built large-size containerships that will serve as the

foundation for future business

<船隊ポートフォリオ改善>

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

2010

2011年

2012年

2013年

2010年代

(TEU)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

船隊総Capacity (TEU)

短期処分可能比率(%)Fleet Portfolio Upgrades

2010

2011

2012

2013

Mid-2010s

Total Fleet Capacity (TEU)Short-term disposability rate (%)

Page 9: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

MIL TONS

Chinese Iron Ore Imports

Chinese & Indian Coal Imports

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Dry Bulk BusinessBusiness Environment• Energy resources transportation is increasing in conjunction with continued economic growth in China, India and other emerging countries, having total population of 3.0 billion.• Energy and grain supply sources are becoming increasingly remote, resulting in higher ton-miles.• Large increase in newbuildings.Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand• Large supply of newbuildings in 2011 will expand gap between supply and demand to highest level ever (with shipping capacity exceeding demand).• Cancellation of newbuildings and increased scrapping (particularly Cape vessels) starting in 2012 will steadily reduce the gap.

Sources: Clarkson; data for 2011 to 2015 are “K” Line forecasts.

Dry Bulk Shipping Capacity DWT and Cargo Movement Volume Forecasts

2,500

2,750

3,000

3,250

3,500

3,750

4,000

2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

ML T

ON

S(C

argo

move

men

ts v

olu

me)

200

300

400

500

600

700

ML D

WT (

Annual

ship

ping

cap

acity)

Cargo movements volume Shipping capacity DWT

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

MIL

TO

NS

India China

The Supply-Demand Gap will start to shrink in 2012

Page 10: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Business Strategy• Create a 300-vessel fleet(1) Upgrade fleet with focus on small and medium bulkers

→Gap between supply and demand is limited, and it will be possible to quickly take advantage of market recovery benefits.

(2) Develop business that takes advantage of a fleet featuring of high-quality special-purpose vessels including coal and iron ore carriers.• Expand stable sources of earningsIncrease medium- and long-term contracts for steel raw materials and thermal coal(1) Approximately 80% of Cape fleet is secured through medium- and long-term contracts.(2) Respond to increased transport demand for thermal coal with highly-rated special-purpose Corona series developed by “K” Line.(3) Acquire long-term contracts for coal to India wherevolume is expected to increase to 16 million tons per year, 10% share of the market, starting in 2012.• Accelerate expansion of global business(1) Reinforce measures in rapidly growing Indian market.(2) Develop original business through bases in Europe and Asia.

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Dry Bulk Business

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015V

ess

els

Chip/Pulp Small Handy Handymax Panamax Over-Panamax Cape

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015V

ess

els

Chip/Pulp Small Handy Handymax Panamax Over-Panamax Cape

Plan for Dry Bulk Fleet Upgrades

Page 11: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Year

Global Sales(unit: 10,000 cars)

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Marine Cargo Movements(unit: 10,000 cars)

Global Sales (unit: 10,000 cars)

Deep-sea Marine Cargo Movements(unit: 10,000 cars)

Global Vehicle Sales and Cargo Movements

Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand

・2011年約70隻、2012年約20隻が竣工・2013年以降の新規発注無し・30歳以上の船腹は全て解撤

<前提条件>

Business Environment• Cargo movement is increasing in conjunction with steady growth of the global sales market.• Manufacturers are diversifying production sites as emerging country markets expand.

> Intra-Asia and routes to and from Asia> Routes to Russia> Routes originating from China and India> Routes between Brazil and neighboring countries

AA. Existing business model centered on exports from Japan is changingBB. Downward effect of the earthquake on export volume from Japan is expected in the 1st half of FY2011 CC. Increasing cargo movement of construction and agricultural equipmentShipping Capacity Supply and Demand• Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies have adopted a wait-and-see attitude concerning new orders.• It is expected that shipping capacity supply and demand will tighten in the mid-2010s.

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Car Carrier Business

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015FY

Vehicles(unit: 10,000 cars)

-150-100-50050100150

60 typeExcess/shortage

Shortage in ship numbers (6000 type)

Deep-sea marine cargo movements (10,000 cars)

Capacity supply(10,000 cars)

・ Approximately 70 vessels will be completed in 2011 and approximately 20 in 2012.・ There are no new orders for delivery in 2013 and later.・ All vessels 30 years old or older will be retired.

Premises

Page 12: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Car Carrier Business

Business StrategyBusiness Strategy

STATISTICS

Measures in Areas Where Future Growth Is Expected

Expand services to, within, and from the Mercosur region

Expand Intra-Asia services

Reinforce services to Russia

Increase Loading of Construction Equipment, Heavy Vehicles, Non-Self-Propelled Freight, etc.

Upgrade the fleet through measures including research on new vessel types in response to the diversification of demand with the aim of creating a transport capacity in excess of 3.5 million units by the mid-2010s

Upgrade the fleet through measures including research on new vessel types in response to the diversification of demand with the aim of creating a transport capacity in excess of 3.5 million units by the mid-2010s

Asia region service map after modifications

Reinforce Measures to Create Income Opportunities as Marine Transport Demand DiversifiesReinforce Measures to Create Income Opportunities as Marine Transport Demand DiversifiesKESS services to European waters

Increase the number of loaded cars from China, Thailand and India“K” Line Cargo Movements

Reinforce Trunk Lines For Japanese Freight and Emerging Market Freight

Expand Services in Emerging Market Regions

(Using the “K” Line-operated terminal in Singapore)

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

0 30,000 60,000 90,000

120,000 150,000 180,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (forecast)

Year

Volume handled China dep.India dep. Thailand dep.

???

"K" Line Volume Handled (from China, India & Thailand)

T/S volume at Singapore Terminal

Page 13: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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World Primary Energy Consumption

Business Environment• Demand for primary energy is expected to maintain steady growth.• Production from existing sources (land based) will decline while a shift to the

development of new sources (from marine to deep sea) has already begun.• Greater attention is being focused on natural gas, which has low environmental impact.

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Energy Transportation Business

LNG

Crude Oil from Additional EORUndiscovered Oil Field

UnconventionalCrude Oil

Undeveloped Oil Field

Existing Oil Field

NewDevelopment

Global oil supply(by source)

Source:IEA*IEO: International Energy Outlook 2010

Page 14: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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14

Business StrategyEnergy DevelopmentIn addition to drilling business using drillships and FLNG (floating LNG producers), enter offshore support vessel business and heavy lifter business and create synergy effects in upstream energy chain to raise profitability.

LNG TransportUse existing vessels to respond to increasing short-term transport demands and use newbuildings to respond to medium- to long-term demands.

Crude Oil CarriersSecure stable earnings with focus on long-term contracts.Enter chemical tanker business as a new business.

Drillship • Drillship operations for Petrobas of Brazil are scheduled to start in early 2012.• Successor projects are currently being considered and discussions are underway.

FLNG (Floating LNG Producer)Create new LNG production means through business with FLEX

Demand for LNG as it gains attention as a clean energy source

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Energy Transportation Business

Growing Demand for LNG

Asia

China/IndiaMiddle East

Europe

North/CentralAmerica

South America

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030

(million M/T))

Page 15: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Heavy Lifter Business: SALBusiness Strategy・ Develop into a core business(1) SAL of Germany becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary.(2) Respond to wide-ranging transport demands with 16-vessel fleet that

includes newbuildings equipped with 2,000-ton cranes, world’s highest lifting capacity.

(3) Equip vessels with dynamic positioning systems to meet transport and offshore demands including marine oil and gas development facilities, marine wind power facilities, etc.

Offshore Support Vessel Business: “K” Line Offshore ASBusiness Strategy ・ Enter into long-term stable contracts with good customers to achieve stable

earnings.(1) Establish seven-vessel fleet with six newbuildings and one chartered vessel

by the end of June 2011.(2) Respond to more remote deeper-water offshore development with AHTS with

world’s highest towing capacity (390 tons) and PSV with large deck area (1,100 m2).

(3) Long-term agreements have been concluded with Petrobas of Brazil and ConocoPhilips of the U.K.

Offshore, Spider Buoy Transport

Rig transportation work in the North SeaBackground: the rig; foreground: KOAS’sAHTS

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Heavy Lifter and Offshore Support Vessel Businesses

Page 16: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

16

Automotive parts delivery service in Thailand (milk run service)

Three-level motorcycle transporter developed by “K”Line in Indonesia

Business Strategy

(1) Expand three pillars of international logistics

* “K” Line Logistics ⇒ Strong marketing with Japanese firms

* Air Tiger Express⇒ Equity participation in January 2010

Strong marketing in China and other parts of Asia

* Century Distribution Systems⇒ High-quality services using logistics

management systems

(2) Expand community-based comprehensive logistics services including motor vehicle logistics

* Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, China, and other countries

Review of Business Strategies by Segment:Freight Forwarding/Harbor Transportation Business

・Tackle demand for logistics to Asia

Page 17: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Changes in Fleet Size and Investment: Strategic Investment and Raising Fleet Flexibility

Changes in Fleet Size and Investment KV2010(unit: vessels)

Year No. of Vessels at end of FY 2010

FY2013Completion

FY2011-13Completion

No. of Vessels at end of FY 2013

Containership 11 83 6 4 0 10 82Dry Bulk 16 179 35 23 27 85 260Car Carrier 7 87 7 1 0 8 86Crude Oil Carrier 0 29 1 2 0 3 29LNG Carrier 0 45 0 0 0 0 42Offshore/Energy Transportation 3 4 4 0 0 4 8Heavy Lifter 2 16 0 0 0 0 16Coastal 1 51 1 2 0 3 54Total 40 494 54 32 27 113 577

FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2011- 13

Investment CF (revised) ¥78.3 billion ¥95.0 billion ¥80.0 billion ¥65.0 billion ¥240.0 billion

Investment CF (prior)As of January 2010

¥85.4 billion ¥56.3 billion ¥61.3 billion

Prior (January 2010)FY2011

CompletionFY2010

CompletionFY2012

CompletionNo. of Vessels at end of FY 2012

No. of Vessels in mid-2010s

81 75219 25076 90

8 1016 1663 70537 586

74 75

Page 18: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Changes in Income and Major Financial Indicators

Income is expected to bottom out in 2011 then turn sharply upward

Achievement of initial goals is planned for mid-2010s

Income Major Financial Indicators

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

10F 11F 12F 13F … Mid-2010s

Net

Sal

es (¥

100

milli

on)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ord

inar

y &

Cur

rent

Inco

me

(¥10

0 m

illio

n)

Net sales Ordinary Income

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

10F 11F 12F 13F … Mid-2010sShar

ehol

der’s

Equ

ity &

Ope

ratin

g an

d In

vest

men

t Cas

h Fl

ows

(¥10

0 m

illion

)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Inte

rest

-bea

ring

debt

Shareholders’equity

Operating CF

Investment CF

DERCurrent income

Page 19: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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Quantitative Targets (the Newly Revised Medium-term Management Plan)

* Impact on income from changes in assumptions (FY2011)

Exchange rate changes: Each ¥1 change against the US dollar causes income to increase or decrease by approximately ¥1.2 billion

Bunker price changes: Each US$10/MT change causes income to increase or decrease by approximately ¥1.2 billion

No changes from KV 2010

Newly Revised Medium-term Management Plan (figures to be reviewed) (unit: billion yen)FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 Mid-2010s

Net sales 985.1 1,090.0 1,160.0 1,250.0 ¥ 1,300 .0 billionOrdinary Income 47.4 3.0 46.0 71.0 110.0Net Income 30.6 2.0 32.0 52.0 70.0Shareholders’ equity 291.6 290.0 320.0 370.0 450.0Interest-bearing Debt 483.3 530.0 510.0 460.0 380.0Operating CF 84.9 49.0 105.0 125.0Investment CF -78.3 -95.0 -80.0 -65.0DER 166% 183% 159% 124% 95% or lessROA 5% 0% 4% 6% 8% or lessEquity Ratio 28% 26% 28% 31% 40% or lessInterest-bearing debt/Operating CF 5.69 10.82 4.86 3.68 4.5 times or lessDividend Payout Ratio 24% 25% 26% 27%

Changes from KV2010FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012

Net sales -14.9 -10.0 -40.0Ordinary Income 36.4 -30.0 -2.0Net Income 23.1 -18.0 1.0Shareholders’ equity 21.6 0.0 0.0Interest-bearing Debt -76.7 -10.0 0.0Operating CF 26.9 -34.0 9.0Investment CF 6.7 -39.0 -20.0FCF 33.6 -73.0 -11.0

T/C Average FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013Plan Plan Plan

CAPE (US$/day) 20,000 25,000 30,000PMAX (US$/day) 15,000 17,500 20,000HMAX (US$/day) 13,000 15,000 18,000Small (US$/day) 11,000 12,000 14,000

Exchange rates (Yen/US$) 85 85 85Bunker (US$/MT) 650 600 600

Exchange Rate - 85 85 85Banker Rate - 650 600 6002

50

30%

Page 20: “K” LINE Vision 100...Shipping Capacity Supply and Demand • Amidst the lack of transparency concerning cargo movement following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, shipping companies

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The basic principles of the "K" LINE Group as a shipping business organization centering on shipping lie in:

a. Diligent efforts for safety in navigation and cargo operations as well as for environmental preservation; b. Sincere response to customer needs by making every possible effort; and c. Contributing to the world’s economic growth and stability through continual upgrading of service quality.