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Institute for Strategic Studies; Research and Analysis (ISSRA)National Defense University
Islamabad
“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”
Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon
(08th May, 2013)
“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”
Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon
(08th May, 2013)
Mr. Ian Dudgeon at the NDU
Courtesy call on the President NDU
A view of the Roundtable
“POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS”
Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon
(08th May, 2013)
Introduction
Presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon
Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar
Interactive discussion
Wrap-up remarks
Annexes
Work Plan CVs of the Speaker and Discussant List of Participants
The compilation is based on minutes recorded by RA Ms Beenish Sultan, RA Mr. Muhammad Shabbir, RA Ms. Mehroona and RA Ms. Asma Sana under sponsorship of
Global Studies-ISSRA.
1
“Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders”
Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon
08th May, 2013: 1220-1400 hrs
INTRODUCTION
The roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon, former President of Australian Institute of
International Affairs (AIIA), aimed at discussing the key interests of major stakeholders
in the context of post 2014 Afghanistan scenario. It was a two-hour long exercise
participated by policy-relevant experts and scholars from within the NDU and various
think-tanks in Islamabad. President NDU Lieutenant General Nasser Khan Janjua was
in Chair.
To recall, Mr. Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant who specializes on
national security issues. He served previously in the domains of foreign affairs, trade,
and defence; and also contributed to the development of concepts related to information
warfare and information operations. He has held the distinguished portfolio of President,
Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA). Currently, he is engaged in carrying a
study on the evolving Afghan scenario for which he is carrying extensive tour of
countries in the region.
At the outset of the roundtable, the Chair welcomed the guest speaker while
taking note of his policy-relevant scholastic pursuits. He expressed the hope that the
guest’s presentation, together with discussion amongst a galaxy of scholars and
intellectuals, would enable him to better appreciate the dynamics of the evolving
scenario.
The roundtable comprised of a presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon (about 20 mins),
followed by a presentation by distinguished visiting faculty: AM (R) Masood Akhtar
(about 20 mins). Another one hour or so was dedicated to an interactive discussion
amongst the participants. Annexes to this compilation carry the roundtable Workplan
(A), Profiles (B), and List of Participants (C).
2
SALIENTS OF MR. IAN DUDGEON’S PRESENTATION
Mr. Ian Dudgeon first introduced his current endeavor to better understand the
dynamics of the evolving Afghanistan scenario and the perceived interests of major
stakeholders in this context. He is engaged in travels to Kabul and Delhi, besides
Pakistan in order to meet policy-relevant elite and scholars and to prepare a
comprehensive paper on the theme which should be of interest to policy-relevant circles
across the regions. The salients of the guest speaker’s presentation are itemized in the
paras below:-
The Post-2014 Afghanistan situation has the potential of unfolding multiple
scenarios. In this context, efforts of reconciliation amongst various stakeholders have
brought forward less optimistic results. At this critical juncture, Afghanistan is looking
ahead to the upcoming general elections and there is a great deal of concern about the
country’s next President and the composition of the Afghan National Assembly. Further,
the situation is marked by complexity as the Taliban remain inflexible in their posture
and vision with regard to negotiations pertaining to the future of Afghanistan. Clearly, as
one may notice, the US is not yet at a point of achieving a breakthrough and still many
factors from the grass root level are unknown to us.
Furthermore, the ability of Afghan National Army to handle post-2014 scenario is
doubtful which would have bearings on Taliban’s modus operandi in the near future.
Another factor is Taliban’s probable refusal to join the new set up and at the same time,
the possibility that Pashtuns would not be sufficiently represented in the new Assembly.
However, one deciding factor would be the performance of the present government as
to whether they were able to make any inroads into the promotion of education, health,
infrastructure and good governance in the country.
All indicators show that the current government failed to deliver and this may be
the primary reason behind the fact that Taliban’s influence cannot be minimized. The
Taliban have also very cleverly used propaganda by branding the invaders. In the wake
of this, there is a general consensus that change is needed in the socio-economic and
security landscape of the country but the question is , will the new President be able to
bring the desired change in order to make Afghanistan a land of opportunity? The new
3
government will only be able to pursue a national agenda if it manages to rise above
short term parochial interests.
At this stage, Afghanistan is divided in two areas: The Taliban area, which is
alleged to carry linkages with Pakistan despite the clear distinction between the Afghan
Taliban and Pakistani Taliban, and the non-Taliban area. In the neighborhood, what
concerns the CARs and Russia the most is the Islamic extremism manifested through
the increasing influence of these Taliban in terms of conditioning the minds of Afghan
people and exporting extremism to the other countries. Australia is a small player in this
scenario, but the idea of Islamic extremism being exported across the globe is
worrisome for it aswell. Terrorist incidents like the one in Bali, Indonesia about ten years
ago was enough to serve as a wakeup call for the Australians. However, it must be
understood that Australia is very comfortable with the religion of Islam and holds nothing
against it, being itself home to a large number of Muslim population.
India, on the other hand offers another complexity to the end game in
Afghanistan. The US had earlier desired India to take the lead but the community at
large remained skeptical. This includes Pakistan which is set to play an absolutely
critical role in the future stability in Afghanistan. Its role will also be effective because of
the shared ethnicities across the Durand line. However, it considers the Afghan Taliban
and India as major challenges to its national security. The grievances on both sides
cannot be denied but a breakthrough can be achieved if driven by mutual interests, both
with Afghanistan and India. Pakistan’s business community has been quite forthcoming
on this idea and believes that a way for rapprochement must be found, invariably
through increased trade and all issues should be solved politically. Concurrently,
Pakistan must realize that, though India stands to benefit any way, but these steps
would also extend Pakistan’s influence globally and at the same time, Afghanistan will
benefit as well.
On a similar note, one can foresee a prospective role of the UN as a neutral
body, for developing infrastructure, health, education and gender equality. The US,
NATO and ISAF have already earmarked $100-200 million for development purposes in
Afghanistan and chances are , they would be needing more money in addition to that
amount. Main reason being that the US may be leaving Afghanistan but is not going to
4
withdraw completely; therefore it is looking for an exit strategy to save face. It is likely to
leave back Special Forces in Afghanistan for combat operations and a sizeable number
of non-operational forces for the same purposes.
Global implications of this bigger bubble of post-2014 scenario need to be seen
in totality. At the end of the day, it is hoped that all the countries will be brought on
board, for which ‘Regional Integration’ seems to be a very winning concept. An increase
in trade will benefit all and serve everyone’s interests, including those of Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Along with that, the world community will be interested in knowing clearly
spelt out national interests which Pakistan seeks to pursue in such a situation.
5
PRESENTATION BY AIR MARSHAL (R) MASOOD AKHTAR
At the outset of the presentation, Air Marshal Masood Akhtar (Retd) highlighted
the importance of the topic particularly in the backdrop of Obama’s second term. The
speaker opined that 2014 will not be an easy year as Obama administration is going to
be more decisive. The US would wish to eliminate Al-Qaeda and Taliban in order to
diminish the possibility of any future attack on the West therefore; it would leave back a
sufficiently strong force in view of the counter insurgency operations inside Afghanistan.
In this regard any terrorist network like Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Punjabi
Taliban and TTP, do not pose any clear mission or objectives. Thus Pakistan has been
put into a very difficult situation. On one hand where it continues to support ISAF efforts
while on the other hand, these operations carry the potential of making things difficult for
Pakistan. Like the ISAF in Afghanistan, Pakistan too needs to win this war. Thus, it is
looking for a balanced Counter Terrorism Strategy. It is obvious that if Pakistan fails,
others may also not succeed.
Furthermore, India and Pakistan are two important regional players in the overall
scenario. For stability and long-term interests the two states have to proceed towards
negotiations. Pakistan is a victim of terrorism not only from within but also from the
Indian and the west; illustrations found in incidents like the five terrorists captured in
Sargodha (Pakistan) who received training in the United States. The peace talks and
trade relations between Pakistan and India must not be held hostage to various
incidents. In addition, India’s presence in Afghanistan and its role in Asia pivot strategy
is neither in interest of Pakistan nor Australia.
Consequently, the success of the ISAF’s roadmap is therefore linked with
number of factors including the result of the ongoing negotiations, transparency in
election process in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s ambition, fears/expectations, the role of
international community especially in the context of their sustainable economic support
and the interests of other regional stakeholders.
There are three major reasons due to which Pakistan owns this war: first, it
threatens ‘Pakistani-Pakistan’ identity, second, it threatens its ‘National Purpose’ that is
‘Democracy, Freedom, Equality, Tolerance and Social Justice’ (DFETS) and finally, it
6
threatens its six suggested ‘Vital National Interests’ (VNIs) i.e. national integration and
harmony, defence and security, economic well-being, favorable regional and global
order, peoples’ security vis-a-vis state-security and promotion/affirmation of its national
values. On the other hand, VNIs of all Western nations particularly US in Afghanistan
are related to expansion of the defence and security parameters, benefit from the
potential wealth of Afghanistan, containing China and Iran and promotion of national
values.
The ‘Australian National Security Policy 2013’ (Strong and Secure Australia)’ has
prioritized its vital national interests as collective economic/ political security, human
security of individuals, supply for food and energy security and the natural system
security. The objectives are to ensure safe and resilient population; protect and
strengthen state sovereignty in terms of decision-making and authority over territory and
space; secure assets, infrastructure, institutions, and wealth; promote a favorable
international environment; to influence/ shape the regional and global environment and
to be conducive in advancing Australian interests and values.
In Afghanistan, there is a need of integration of all ethnic factions through
promotion of Islamic value system. Al-Qaeda has found a bigger ground in ‘Arab Spring’
thus; the real threat in Afghanistan is from sole terrorists who are ideologically motivated
individuals. The process of globalization, transfer of capital and information technology
has facilitated such individuals.
Moreover, the role of international community in future of Afghanistan should be
inclusive not exclusive of the Afghan government. The solution should not be imposed
from outside rather it should emerge from within Afghan polity. The future scenario
should look into the interests of all nations particularly the interest of Pakistan which not
only shares the common border but also common heritage with Afghanistan
If US leaves Afghanistan and ‘larger than life’ influence of India is established in
the country, Pakistan will get destabilized ultimately leading to a destabilization of the
whole region. The interests of regional security emphasize that international community
should trust Pakistan as General Kayani rightly stated, “Pakistan should be trusted and
enabled”.
7
INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION
During the interactive discussion, the participants were keen in deliberating on
issues regarding the presence of special forces in Afghanistan and impact on the
process of state-building, Indian involvement in Afghanistan and fallout on Pakistan,
probable scenario’s post-2014 and current security situation of Afghanistan.
It was opined that firstly, ‘securing one’s national interest is a universal right’.
Leaving back a surge of 10,000 to 15,000 in Afghanistan serves the US interest of
operationalizing peace in Afghanistan. In this regard, state-building and bringing the
house in order from scratch is a goal which the US foresees post-2014. The forces left
behind are meant to train the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police which is
a step towards building up institutions of Afghanistan. The Forces on Ground
Agreement 2012 also confirms this goal. Hence, the presence of forces confirms the
goal of first preparing the Afghan forces against any faction creating instability and
second, at the larger canvas strengthening the Afghan institutions.
Second, the Indian economic interests in Afghanistan are more pronounced than
the political ones. They are inclined towards promoting economic relations with
Afghanistan and keeps up with the traditional rivalry with Pakistan. On the other hand,
Pakistan is concerned about the heavy Indian presence on its Western borders. This
presence has the biggest repercussion in the Pakistani province of Balochistan.
Furthermore, the situation becomes interesting with the Chinese involvement in
Afghanistan. This role is expected to neutralize the heavy Indian involvement and
promote stability in the process of transition.
Thirdly, there might be multiple scenarios unfolding in Afghanistan Post-2014.
There can either be a hybrid between the Taliban and other factions to form a
government or there can also be a government entirely led by the Taliban. No matter
what the case is, the truth remains that insurgency causing instability might continue if
Afghanistan as a whole is not considered as an entity above every other institution. This
disintegration may be caused from within the country because of two reasons:
presence of local militias both in the form of Arbaki’s and their absorption in the ANA
and ANP is a ground reality. In addition, the heavy dependence of Afghan GDP growth
8
on foreign aid, along with involvement of foreign factions in Afghanistan poses grave
threats to the Afghanistan security situation as a whole.
Lastly, the current Afghanistan situation appears bleak. This may be considered
with a three-fold focus: (a) 62% of Afghanistan is still under the control of the resistance
which rises to 72% at night. (b) Opium production is at its peak being 6000 tons
currently under the Americans which was once 50 tons (c) there are no job opportunities
for the locals of Afghanistan, which fuels cross-border infiltration. According to a source,
a total number of 1000 Afghans were stopped by the Afghan border security in their
effort to enter Iran and work on daily wages. Hence, the way forward lies in an
Afghanistan with no Al-Qaeda and a pluralistic arrangement of the Government.
Afghanistan as a whole is a key to the regional peace and security.
9
WRAP-UP REMARKS
In his concluding remarks, the Chair opined that rich contributions made by
participants during the discussion will help the guest speaker in formulating a better
report towards the description and solution of the crises in Afghanistan. The salients of
the Chair’s remarks are as follows:-
After twelve years of conflict, Afghan society is so badly injured that there is more
of pessimism and less of optimism in Afghanistan. In this war, having spent so much of
blood and treasure, such an end result was never desired by the stakeholders. All the
hopes are now placed in Afghan National Security Forces that perhaps they will endure
and deliver. The US, the West and the Rest have become so weary of the conflict that
they just want to walk out of it and wash their hands off. Those rudimentary forces that
have been gathered over the last few years are expected to deliver after the withdrawal
where coalition forces collectively have failed to deliver. Therefore, moving out of
Afghanistan without a political solution will not only put these forces under tremendous
stress and pressure but also there is a possibility of the reeruption of conflict in the
country, a situation Pakistan wants to avoid due to obvious reasons.
Therefore, a two-fold suggestion merits consideration: First, having been partner
at the regional and global level and assisted the efforts in Afghanistan for last 35 years,
Pakistan would not like to be re-ditched and left alone like eighties in the face of
unsettled Afghanistan. Second, Afghanistan Security Forces should not be exposed and
expected to defeat an enemy that US and allies have collectively failed to defeat for
twelve years. Therefore, a compromised political solution emerging from within the
people is needed to stabilize Afghanistan.
Furthermore, extremism is a conflicting issue between Islamic world and the
West. It is the area where combined efforts are needed to resolve the differences. There
may be various reasons and causes for extremism amongst Muslims as: Palestine,
Kashmir, Afghanistan Iraq and Iran. Extremism cannot be countered with extremism but
it can be countered by addressing and resolving the root causes and through
reorientation.
10
As far as Pakistan and India are concerned, they cannot remain enemies forever.
Nevertheless, both have 65 years of history full of wars and clashes; therefore, Pakistan
cannot afford ‘larger than life’ influence of India in Afghanistan, especially when India
has made ingress in Afghan security forces by way of training, while similar offer from
Pakistan has been denied by Afghanistan. Moreover, while US wants India as its
alternative in Afghanistan, for Pakistan, Indian influence in Afghanistan disturbs the
already upset regional balance of power. US for tactical gains may look for larger Indian
influence in Afghanistan, however strategically it would further destabilize the region.
In Afghanistan, the main effort has been in the south while US has been
operating in the center, creating a disconnect in the need and deployment of forces.
Further to that, Kunar and Nooristan valleys were left as unimportant as General
Patreaus focused on power centers creating a vacuum in those areas for Pakistan. In
addition to that, US started negotiations with Taliban and pressurized Pakistan to
operate against Taliban within Pakistan. Taliban also have held Pakistan by the throat
and by siding with the US, Pakistan was declared ‘infidel’ by the Taliban. It was forced
to deploy one hundred fifty four thousand troops in FATA and Waziristan to fight
Taliban. In its limited capacity, Pakistan has contributed and suffered in terms of men
and material more than the fifty countries collectively did.
Finally, any report coming at this time, should treat the Afghan issue and the
region with objectivity; because there is already lot of animosity in the region. So, the
report coming from an Australian academician should carry the concerns of all
stakeholders equally.
11
WORK PLAN
Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon on:Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders
(08 May 2013)
Chair: President NDU
12:20 -12:30 hrs Recitation from Holy Quran Introduction: CVs
12:30-12:50 hrs Brief Remarks by Mr. Ian Dudgeon
12:50-13:10 hrs
Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar:
‘A Perspective on Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Key Pakistani Interests’
13:10 -13:50 hrs Interactive Discussion
13:50 -14:00 hrsWrap up by the Chair /
Presentation of souvenirs
12
PROFILES
Speaker: Mr. Ian Dudeon
Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant whose services include policy advice and
reviews of national security issues. He served previously in both the Foreign Affairs and
Trade and Defence portfolios, That service included 16 years as a member of the
Senior Executive Service and 12 years overseas in Europe, Asia and the Americas.
As a Defence official in the 1990s, and later as a consultant, Ian was responsible for
developing the concepts relating to Information Warfare and Information Operations.
He has published and lectured on these and related issues, and was co-author of
Australia and Cyber-Warfare published by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at
ANU in 2008.
Ian has a Bachelor of Economics degree from Monash University, is a graduate of the
Australian Institute of Company Directors, and has attended a residential Advanced
Management Program at Harvard University's Graduate School of Business
Administration. He has served as President of the AIIA ACT Branch since early 2008.
13
Discussant: AM (R) Masood Akhtar
Air Marshal (R) Masood Akhtar, is a Distinguished Visiting Faculty at National Defence
University. In his long professional career, he held several key assignments, noteworthy
amongst them as Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Training); Director General National
Accountability Bureau and Chief Instructor at the National Defence University. He was
also Commandant at Air War College and Base Commander at various locations.
14
LIST OF PARTICIPANTS
Roundtable with Mr. Ian DudgeonPost 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders
(08th May 2013)
Sr. Name DesignationNDU Command
1. Maj Gen Ziauddin Najam DG ISSRA2. Dr. P.I. Cheema Dean FCS3. AVM Syed Razi Ul Hassan Nawab Dean FSS4. Brig Nazir Ahmed COS
Speaker/Key Discussants5. Mr. Ian Dudgeon6. AM ® Masood Akhtar H # 6, St # 7, Safari Villas, Bahria
Town, Rwp0345-5372008, [email protected]
DFMs & Other Distinguished Persons7. Vice Admiral (R) Rao Iftikhar Ahmed
RaoHouse #16, Street # 27, F8/1 IslamabadTel: 051-2851627Mob: 0302-8271388
8. Dr. Fahim Ahmed Khan H#28, St#33, Sector G-9/3, IslamabadTel: 051-28505526Mob: 0301-4144117
9. Lt Gen ® Sardar Mehmood Khan, House # 26, Lane # 6, Defence Complex Islamabad (DCI), Sector E-9 Islamabad
10. Amb Rustam Shah Mohmand House # 124, Hayauddin Road, New Shami Road Colony, Peshawar0300-8599877 (c)
Think Tanks/Universities11. Mr. Salman Khan Researcher, ISSI
Sector F-5/2, Islamabad051-9204423-4
12. Dr. Noor ul Haq SRF/Acting President, IPRIH # 6, St # 63, F-8/4, Islamabad051-9261348-50
13. Mr. Arish ullah Khan Senior Analyst, IRSH # 12 , St # 84, Ataturk Avenue,G-6/4, Islamabad051-9203567/9204934 Ext: 102
14. Dr. Maria Sultan Director General, SASSIH # 427, St # 1, F-11/1, Islamabad051-2290917, 2291061
15. Mr. Sakib Mehmood CPGS
15
H#7, St # 3, Safari Villas, RwpISSRA Faculty (all available)
16. Amb Arif Kamal Dir GS/RS17. Brig Amir Yaqub Dir C&C18. Brig Masroor Ahmed Dir DS19. Brig M. Khurshid Khan Dir IS20. Col Khush M. Khan DD Lib21. Lt Col Asim Ahmed DD C & C22. Lt Col Dr. M. Saif ur Rehman DD P & R23. Lt Col Asif Raza DD KC&PP24. Lt Col Manzoor Ahmed Abbasi DD N&MH25. Lt Col Amir Hashmi DD IS&PR26. Ms. Beenish Sultan RA GS/RS27. Muhammad Shabbir RA GS/RS28. 6 x RAs & Interns
FCS Faculty x 1029. Dr. Syed Bashir Hussain HOD GPP30. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar Associate Prof, IR31. Dr. Rizwana Karim Abbasi Asst Prof, S&NS32. Ms Arshi Saleem Hashmi Asst Prof, PCS33. Mr. Shakeel Ahmed Asst Prof, PCS34. Mr. Syed Muhammad Ali Lecturer, IR35. Ms Nargis Zehra Lecturer, IR36. Mr. Adnan Jamil Lecturer, LMS37. Mr. Nasir Mehmood Lecturer, S&NS38. Syed Ali Irtiza Lecturer, PCS
FCS Students x 10 (as designated)39. Mr. Areeb Masood Dept of LMS40. Mr. Rameez Dept of PCS41. Mr. Wasem Iftikhar Janua Dept of PCS42. Mr. Ameer Abdullah Khan Dept of IR43. Ms Tehzeeb Nisar Dept of IR44. Mr. Ali Mustufa Dept of S&NS45. Ms Palwasha Khan Dept of S&NS46. Mr. Bilal Shahid Cheema Dept of GPP47. Mr. Abdur Rehman Dept of GPP48. Mr. Noman Ullah Khan Dept of PCS
Policy Relevant OfficialsMOFA x 1
49. Mr. Javed Jalil Director Afghanistan JSHQ and relevant agencies
50. Capt (N) Munawar51. Lt Col Amir Bashir52. Ms Amna Ejaz
GHQ x 153. Maj Gen Shahid Hashmat Deputy QMG, 8000-32257