AP ® Human Geography Workshop Population Dynamics in the Rural Midwest: Causes and Consequences Tim Strauss Department of Geography University of Northern

APAP®® Human Geography Human Geography WorkshopWorkshop

Population Dynamics in the Population Dynamics in the Rural Midwest: Causes and Rural Midwest: Causes and

ConsequencesConsequencesTim StraussTim Strauss

Department of Geography Department of Geography University of Northern IowaUniversity of Northern Iowa

8989thth Annual Meeting of the Annual Meeting of the National Council for Geographic National Council for Geographic

EducationEducation Kansas City, Missouri, October 22, Kansas City, Missouri, October 22,

20042004

Overview Overview

IntroductionIntroduction Population Trends Population Trends Possible CausesPossible Causes Consequences/ImplicationsConsequences/Implications Conclusion Conclusion

etc., etc., etc.

Climate

Topography

Political systems

Demographics

Religion

Language

Economic systems

Culture

Geography can be seen as a complex interaction of different “layers”

Human and physical geography.Systematic and regional geography.

Introduction:The “Layers” of Geography

Systematic

Regional

IntroductionIntroduction World Regional – regional focus and World Regional – regional focus and

organizationorganization Human Geography – organized by sub-Human Geography – organized by sub-

discipline/ layerdiscipline/ layer Layers often addressed separatelyLayers often addressed separately

Introduction, population, migration, culture, Introduction, population, migration, culture, language, religion, agriculture, urban, political, etc. language, religion, agriculture, urban, political, etc.

Importance of interaction across layersImportance of interaction across layers Requires integrated analysis, multidisciplinary Requires integrated analysis, multidisciplinary

approachapproach Today, using population change as an exampleToday, using population change as an example

Focus on Midwest/Iowa Focus on Midwest/Iowa

Population TrendsPopulation Trends

Population Growth by State in the Population Growth by State in the 1990s1990s

Increase 20% or more

Population Change, 1990-2000

Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University





Increase 5% or moreSource: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University


+ 0.5%

+ 8.5%

+ 8.4%

+ 8.5%

+ 12.4%

+ 5.4%

+ 9.3%

+ 9.6%

+ 8.6% + 9.7%+ 4.7%

+ 6.9%


Nationwide + 13.2%



Population Growth by State in the Population Growth by State in the 2020thth Century Century













Statewide Population Growth in Statewide Population Growth in IowaIowa

Projected Population in Projected Population in IowaIowa

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1900 20 40 60 80 2000 2020

Millions

Projections by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2004





Statewide Population Growth in IowaStatewide Population Growth in Iowa County-level Changes in PopulationCounty-level Changes in Population

metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan trendsmetropolitan vs. non-metropolitan trends


Increased Decreased 1 dot = 10 persons

O ne dot = 10 persons

B lue = IncreaseP ink = D ecrease


ISU Census Services

Most counties Most counties experienced their experienced their peak population peak population decades agodecades ago metropolitan vs. metropolitan vs.

non-metropolitan non-metropolitan patternpattern

The trend is expected to continue


Population Growth by State in the 1990sPopulation Growth by State in the 1990s Population Growth by State in the 20Population Growth by State in the 20thth

Century Century Statewide Population Growth in IowaStatewide Population Growth in Iowa County-level Changes in PopulationCounty-level Changes in Population Components of Demographic Change Components of Demographic Change

Birth Rates and Death RatesBirth Rates and Death Rates In- vs. Out-MigrationIn- vs. Out-Migration

Births and DeathsIowa

1940 1950 1990 20000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Thousands

198019701960

Births Deaths

ISU Census Services

Natural Change, 1990–Natural Change, 1990–20002000

ISU Census Services

More births than deaths More deaths than births

http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-9.pdf

Net Migration in Iowa Net Migration in Iowa

1910s1910s 0 0 1920s1920s -150,000-150,000 1930s1930s -100,000-100,000 1940s1940s -180,000-180,000 1950s1950s -250,000-250,000 1960s1960s -180,000-180,000 1970s1970s -60,000 -60,000 1980s1980s -280,000-280,000 1990s1990s +49,000 +49,000

ISU Census Services

http

://w

ww

.set

a.ia

stat

e.ed

u/po

pula

tion/

publ

icat

ions

/mig

ratio

n_in

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pdf

Migration largely follows expected patterns- Gravity model

- nearby states, large states- South/West vs. East/North

http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications/ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf

http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications/ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf

1 dot = 2 persons

1 dot = 2 persons

Possible CausesPossible Causes

Trends in AgricultureTrends in Agriculture Declining percentage of workforce in Declining percentage of workforce in

farmingfarming Consolidation - Fewer, larger farmsConsolidation - Fewer, larger farms

Iowa Farm Numbers and Size

92000

94000

96000

98000

100000

102000

104000

106000

108000

Year

Far

ms

300.0

305.0

310.0

315.0

320.0

325.0

330.0

335.0

340.0

345.0

Acr

es Farms

Acres/Farm

d

Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City(http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)

Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City(http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)

Possible CausesPossible Causes

Trends in AgricultureTrends in Agriculture Migration PreferencesMigration Preferences

Young adult/student preferencesYoung adult/student preferences Employment opportunities, incomes, Employment opportunities, incomes,

cultural amenities, climatecultural amenities, climate ““Co-location” issue Co-location” issue

Metropolitan orientation of college-educated Metropolitan orientation of college-educated couplescouples

http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-549.pdf

Human Geography class: Number of students selecting each state as their most preferred (“Y”) or least preferred (“N”) to live in after graduation

Human Geography class: Student responses regarding whether they would like to leave Iowa (=1) or stay in Iowa (=5) after graduation, by home town of the student

http

://w

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00.p

df

Per Capita IncomeIowa

ISU Census Services

1970 1975 2000$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35Thousands

1995199019851980

U.S Iowa

Per Capita Income, 1998Per Capita Income, 1998

ISU Census Services

Higher than the state average Lower than the state average

Iowa =$24,745

Consequences/Consequences/ImplicationsImplications

Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Age Age


Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Retail Trade PatternsRetail Trade Patterns

Central Place Theory Settlement Pattern - but is the pattern static?

Actual Settlement Pattern in Iowa

Southwest Iowa, 1934

Grocery Stores

Legal Advice

Hospitals

Discussed in Berry 1988 Market Centers and Retail Location: Theory and Applications

Long history of retail trade studies in Iowa

Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

As expected, more retail sales in more populated counties- but what if we do per capita comparisons?

Pull Factor = town (or county) per capita retail sales / state per capita retail sales

http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/seta_retail_guide.pdf






Iowa County Taxable Retail Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita, FY2003Sales Per Capita, FY2003

State Sales Per Capita = $9,778

Sales Per Capita

$6,553

$9,865

$11,064

$6,048$4,710

$6,899

$5,331

$8,859

$5,136 $14,111

$10,977

$7,335

$3,951

$7,088

$5,750$5,063

$6,176

$7,726

$11,440

$5,159

$4,112

$4,831

$10,739

$4,431

$2,808

$6,385

$7,514

$4,896

$6,842

$7,234

$7,814

$5,017

$16,050

$5,914

$4,749

$12,134

$5,246

$6,155

$3,743

$8,806$9,096

$10,517

$6,049

$12,009

$10,035

$5,445

$6,628

$4,533

$6,796

$5,606

$5,891

$5,410$3,380

$5,933

$5,371$6,733

$5,875

$10,942

$5,587

$7,210 $5,087

$7,497

$5,837 $5,690

$7,360$3,421 $5,836

$4,713

$3,337$3,255 $4,616$5,026$6,690 $2,864

$12,855

$5,453$5,051

$6,414

$4,823

$4,422

$8,458 $9,204

$8,418

$6,175

$6,265$8,825$3,206 $4,018$6,102

$5,624

$2,637

$6,194 $5,166$10,714

$6,006

$2,104

$13,885$4,972 $8,331LYON

SIOUX

PLYMOUTH

WOODBURY

MONONA

HARRISON

POTTAWATTAMIE

MILLS

FREMONT PAGE TAYLOR RINGGOLD DECATUR WAYNE APPANOOSE DAVIS VAN BUREN

LEE

DES MOINES

HENRYJEFFERSONWAPELLOMONROELUCASCLARKEUNIONADAMSMONTGOMERY

CASS ADAIR MADISON WARREN MARION MAHASKA KEOKUK WASHINGTON

LOUISA

MUSCATINE

SCOTT

CLINTON

JACKSONJONES

CEDAR

LINN

JOHNSON

BENTON

IOWA

TAMA

POWESHIEKJASPER

MARSHALLSTORY

POLKDALLAS

BOONEGREENE

GUTHRIEAUDUBON

CARROLLCRAWFORD

SHELBY

IDA SAC

CHEROKEE BUENA VISTA POCAHONTAS HUMBOLDT

KOSSUTH

CALHOUN

WEBSTER

HAMILTON HARDIN GRUNDY

BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN DELAWARE DUBUQUE

CLAYTON

ALLAMAKEEWINNESHIEK

FAYETTE

HOWARDMITCHELLWORTHWINNEBAGO

HANCOCK CERRO GORDOFLOYD CHICKASAW

BREMERBUTLER

FRANKLINWRIGHT

EMMET

PALO ALTO

DICKINSON

CLAY

OSCEOLA

O'BRIEN

Less than $5000$5000 to $7500$7500 to $9778More than $9778

Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program

Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Pull Factors, FY2003Pull Factors, FY2003

0.67

1.01

1.13

0.620.48

0.71

0.55

0.91

0.53 1.44

1.12

0.75

0.40

0.72

0.590.52

0.63

0.79

1.17

0.53

0.42

0.49

1.10

0.45

0.29

0.65

0.77

0.50

0.70

0.74

0.80

0.51

1.64

0.60

0.49

1.24

0.54

0.63

0.38

0.900.93

1.08

0.62

1.23

1.03

0.56

0.68

0.46

0.70

0.57

0.60

0.550.35

0.61

0.550.69

0.60

1.12

0.57

0.74 0.52

0.77

0.60 0.58

0.750.35 0.60

0.48

0.340.33 0.470.510.68 0.29

1.31

0.560.52

0.66

0.49

0.45

0.86 0.94

0.86

0.63

0.640.900.33 0.410.62

0.58

0.27

0.63 0.531.10

0.61

0.22

1.420.51 0.85LYON

SIOUX

PLYMOUTH

WOODBURY

MONONA

HARRISON

POTTAWATTAMIE

MILLS


LEE

DES MOINES



LOUISA

MUSCATINE

SCOTT

CLINTON

JACKSONJONES

CEDAR

LINN

JOHNSON

BENTON

IOWA

TAMA

POWESHIEKJASPER

MARSHALLSTORY

POLKDALLAS

BOONEGREENE

GUTHRIEAUDUBON

CARROLLCRAWFORD

SHELBY

IDA SAC


KOSSUTH

CALHOUN

WEBSTER



CLAYTON

ALLAMAKEEWINNESHIEK

FAYETTE



BREMERBUTLER

FRANKLINWRIGHT

EMMET

PALO ALTO

DICKINSON

CLAY

OSCEOLA

O'BRIEN

Pull Factors0 to 0.500.50 to 1.001.00 to 2.00


Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage, FY2003Surplus or Leakage, FY2003

-$18

$59

$135

-$63-$52

-$35

-$49

-$38

-$53 $406

$82

-$37

-$68

-$30

-$29-$27

-$25

-$57

-$58

-$51

-$32

-$37

$93

-$86

-$46

-$54

-$25

-$28

-$95

-$149

-$19

-$35

$1,310

-$36

-$212

$81

-$58

-$25

-$63

-$11-$98

-$5

-$87

$42

$33

-$53

-$19

-$23

-$45

-$30

-$17

-$45-$46

-$18

-$27-$15

-$52

$182

-$33

-$9 -$62

$2

-$44 -$46

-$48-$20 -$29

-$70

-$22-$26 -$16-$46-$11 -$34

$425

-$35-$26

-$22

-$27

-$19

$20 $3

-$46

-$75

-$47$13-$87 -$38-$31

-$18

-$42

-$24 -$10$52

-$17

-$71

$45-$29 -$2LYON

SIOUX

PLYMOUTH

WOODBURY

MONONA

HARRISON

POTTAWATTAMIE

MILLS


LEE

DES MOINES



LOUISA

MUSCATINE

SCOTT

CLINTON

JACKSONJONES

CEDAR

LINN

JOHNSON

BENTON

IOWA

TAMA

POWESHIEKJASPER

MARSHALLSTORY

POLKDALLAS

BOONEGREENE

GUTHRIEAUDUBON

CARROLLCRAWFORD

SHELBY

IDA SAC


KOSSUTH

CALHOUN

WEBSTER



CLAYTON

ALLAMAKEEWINNESHIEK

FAYETTE



BREMERBUTLER

FRANKLINWRIGHT

EMMET

PALO ALTO

DICKINSON

CLAY

OSCEOLA

O'BRIEN

Surplus or Leakage

-$250 million to -$50 million-$50 million to -$10 million-$10 million to $0$0 and above (surplus)


Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or Leakage as a % of Surplus or Leakage as a % of

Potential Sales, FY2003Potential Sales, FY2003

-14%

7%

13%

-30%-38%

-14%

-30%

-10%

-36% 17%

23%

-16%

-52%

-17%

-23%-35%

-22%

-13%

-4%

-33%

-48%

-40%

11%

-52%

-59%

-31%

-14%

-34%

-30%

-32%

-12%

-39%

27%

-30%

-52%

17%

-35%

-16%

-53%

-3%-12%

-3%

-35%

25%

19%

-37%

-18%

-30%

-23%

-29%

-22%

-31%-55%

-28%

-33%-13%

-30%

15%

-34%

-8% -46%

6%

-31% -38%

-15%-47% -27%

-54%

-44%-53% -29%-36%-17% -61%

26%

-39%-33%

-25%

-42%

-39%

7% 2%

-12%

-34%

-27%14%-65% -50%-36%

-29%

-67%

-26% -30%13%

-20%

-73%

24%-46% -2%LYON

SIOUX

PLYMOUTH

WOODBURY

MONONA

HARRISON

POTTAWATTAMIE

MILLS


LEE

DES MOINES



LOUISA

MUSCATINE

SCOTT

CLINTON

JACKSONJONES

CEDAR

LINN

JOHNSON

BENTON

IOWA

TAMA

POWESHIEKJASPER

MARSHALLSTORY

POLKDALLAS

BOONEGREENE

GUTHRIEAUDUBON

CARROLLCRAWFORD

SHELBY

IDA SAC

CHEROKEE BUENA VISTA POCAHONTASHUMBOLDT

KOSSUTH

CALHOUN

WEBSTER



CLAYTON

ALLAMAKEEWINNESHIEK

FAYETTE



BREMERBUTLER

FRANKLINWRIGHT

EMMET

PALO ALTO

DICKINSON

CLAY

OSCEOLA

O'BRIEN

Surplus or Leakage, %-80% to -40%-40$ to -20%-20% to 0%0% and above



Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Retail Trade PatternsRetail Trade Patterns School ConsolidationSchool Consolidation

Certified and ProjectedCertified and ProjectedK-12 Enrollment*, IowaK-12 Enrollment*, Iowa

1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 20040

100

200

300

400

500

600Thousands

Certified Projected* Includes only public schools ISU Census Services

School ConsolidationSchool Consolidation Decline in number of school districtsDecline in number of school districts

Early 1900s: 12,000 (schoolhouses)Early 1900s: 12,000 (schoolhouses) By 1932: 4,875By 1932: 4,875 By 1996: 501By 1996: 501 Now: 367Now: 367

Proposal to merge districts with a high Proposal to merge districts with a high school having <200 studentsschool having <200 students 147 such districts in Iowa 147 such districts in Iowa Concerns about access to advanced math, Concerns about access to advanced math,

science, and other classesscience, and other classes

Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier, 10/2/04 (www.wcfcourier.com)Quad-City Times (www.qctimes.com)

Change in Population 17 Change in Population 17 Years of Age or Younger, Years of Age or Younger,

1990–20001990–2000

ISU Census Services

Increase Decrease


Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Retail Trade PatternsRetail Trade Patterns School ConsolidationSchool Consolidation Political BalancePolitical Balance

Effect on urban/rural issues in state-Effect on urban/rural issues in state-level politicslevel politics

National-level shifts in the political balance

State-level shifts in the political balance:

Iowa Senate

State-level shifts in the political balance:

Iowa House


Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Retail Trade PatternsRetail Trade Patterns School ConsolidationSchool Consolidation Political BalancePolitical Balance County ConsolidationCounty Consolidation

County ConsolidationCounty Consolidation

County boundaries same since 1871County boundaries same since 1871 Designed for one-day round trip from Designed for one-day round trip from

farm to courthousefarm to courthouse Brookings Institution recommended Brookings Institution recommended

county consolidationcounty consolidation Suggested 25 instead of 99 countiesSuggested 25 instead of 99 counties

Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)

1900: Polk County population (82,624) exceeds that of 7 smallest counties (74,977)

Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)





County ConsolidationCounty Consolidation

Brookings Institution study was done Brookings Institution study was done in in 19331933

Since then, 64 counties have lost Since then, 64 counties have lost population, 35 have gainedpopulation, 35 have gained

Consolidation is not a popular ideaConsolidation is not a popular idea Community identity and vitalityCommunity identity and vitality Political balancePolitical balance

Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)


Demographic ProfileDemographic Profile Retail Trade PatternsRetail Trade Patterns School ConsolidationSchool Consolidation Political BalancePolitical Balance County ConsolidationCounty Consolidation Patterns of Religious AffiliationPatterns of Religious Affiliation

Data and Graph: James F. FrymanUNI Geography Dept.

Iowa is more Methodist, more Lutheran, less Catholic, and less Baptist than the US as a whole. - Iowa is normally split between Lutheran and Methodist regions on maps of US religious affiliation

Denominational Denominational group by group by metropolitan vs. metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan non-metropolitan location location e.g., historically, e.g., historically,

Methodists more Methodists more rural than US rural than US population as a population as a whole whole

Zelinsky, Wilbur 1961, An Approach to the Religious Geography of the United States: Patterns of Church Membership in 1952, Annals of the AAG.

Data and Map: James F. FrymanUNI Geography Dept.

Generally, growth in numbers of churches in metropolitan areas, declines in rural areas

American Religion Data Archive (www.thearda.com)

Methodists have a largely rural spatial distribution in Iowa

Data and Graph: James F. FrymanUNI Geography Dept.

Methodists: decline in affiliation, 1950-1990- Effect of rural orientation? What processes are involved?

Roman Catholics: increase in affiliation, 1950-1990- Effect of metro vs. non-metro and regional (e.g., NE Iowa) orientation? - Effect of in-migration?

ConclusionsConclusions

The above trends cannot be considered in The above trends cannot be considered in isolation from each otherisolation from each other

Relevance to APHG curriculumRelevance to APHG curriculum Links across sections of the course outlineLinks across sections of the course outline Cause-and-effect relationshipsCause-and-effect relationships Synthesis Synthesis Process-oriented analysisProcess-oriented analysis Changes in patterns over timeChanges in patterns over time Scale Scale

Documents

AP ® Human Geography Workshop Population Dynamics in the Rural Midwest: Causes and Consequences Tim Strauss Department of Geography University of Northern