Ap Psyc CHpt.1

7/21/2019 Ap Psyc CHpt.1

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Presentationby Jim Foley

© 2013 Worth Publishers

Chapter 1ThinkingCritically

withPsychological

Science



Surveying the Chapter:Overview

Typical errors in hindsight, overconfdence,and coincidence

The scientifc attitude and critical thinking The scientifc method: theories and

hypotheses

Gathering psychological data: description,correlation, and experimentation/causation

Describing data: signifcant dierences

!ssues in psychology: laboratory vs" li#e,culture and gender, values and ethics



Critical thinking re#ersto a more care#ul style o##orming and evaluatingkno$ledge than simplyusing intuition"

!n addition to the scientifc

method, critical thinking $illhelp us develop moreeective and accurate $aysto fgure out $hat makespeople do, think, and #eel the

things they do"

psychological science!does this mean “criticize”?

Why do I needto work on mythinking? Can’tyou just tell mefacts about psychology?

•

The brain isdesigned #orsurviving andreproducing, butit is not the besttool #or seeing

%reality& clearly"• To improve ourthinking, $e $illlearn to catchourselves in somecritical thinking

errors"



en our natura t n ngstyle #ails:

$indsight%ias:

'! kne$ it all

along"(

Overconfdence error:'! am sure !

am correct"( The coincidenceerror, or

mistakenlyperceiving

order inrandom events:

'The dice mustbe fxed becauseyou rolled threesixes in a ro$"(



$indsight %ias islike a crystal %all

that we use topredict! the past&

! kne$ this$ould happen)

*ou $ereaccepted into

thiscollege/university

+lassic example:a#ter $atching a

competitionsports,

cooking-, if youdon’t make a

prediction aheadof time, you

might make a'postdiction(: '!

fgured thatteam/person

$ould $inbecause)(

.hen you seemost results o#psychologicalresearch, you

might say, 'that$as obvious)(

$indsight 'ias



These sayingsall seem to

make sense(in hindsight(a#ter we read

them&

ut of sight! out ofmind

"#$e who hesitatesis lost

%o &wo'man is anisland

(ctions speak louder thawords

)ou’re ne*er too oldto learn

Curiosity killed the cat

pposites attra

+here’s no place like ho

)%sence makes the heart

grow #onder

*ook %e#ore you leap

+ood #ences make good

neigh%ors

The pen is mightier than

the sword

,ou can-t teach an old dog

new tricks

The grass is always greener on the other side

o# the #ence

Seek and ye

shall fnd

'irds o# a #eather .ock

together

'ut then whydo theseother phrasesalso seem tomake sense/

$i d i h



$indsight“'ias

The mind builds itscurrent $isdom around$hat $e have alreadybeen told" .e are'biased( in #avor o# oldin#ormation"

For example, $e maystay in a badrelationship because it

has lasted this #ar andthus $as 'meant to be"(

Why call it“bias”?



i i d i d



)nothertype o#

this error:reactingto

coincidence as i# it

has

meaning

Perceiving order in randomevents:

02ample:

The cointossesthat “lookwrong i#there arefve heads

in a row&

1anger2 thinking you canmake a prediction #rom a

random series" !# the ball inthe roulette $heel has landedon an even number #our timesin a ro$, it does not increasethe likelihood that it $ill landon an odd number on the next

spin"

Why this error happens2

because $e have the $rongidea about $hatrandomness looks like"If 34 pieces of candy were randomly distributed to 55

students! what is the most likely number of pieces astudent could e6pect to recei*e? What is the highestnumber of pieces someone would be likely to get?

If one poker player at atable got pocket acestwice in a row!

is the gamerigged?



and overuse our intuition/

3rom an evolutionary

perspective:$indsight%ias

might be anoshoot o#our use#ul

habit o#analy5ing anevent andtrying tofgure out

$hy itoccurred"

Overconfdence errormight help

us lead otherpeople6

certaintybuildsconfdence in

#ollo$ersmore thanaccuracy

does"

Perceivingorder helps

us make

predictions6$e ust needto test these

and notoverdo it"

"ometimes ourintuition gi*es

the rightanswer! which

makes us trustit e*en more7

4 ki id



4aking our ideas moreaccurate %y

%eing scientifc.hat did '4ma5ing7andi( do about theclaim o# seeing auras38e developed a testableprediction, $hich $ould

support the theory i# itsucceeded"Which it didnot7

The aura0readers $ere

unable to locate theaura around 7andi&sbody $ithout seeing7andi&s body itsel#, sotheir claim $as not

supported"



9ut to guide you, you&llneed a scientifc

4TT!TD;"

ay( owdo 5 goa%out%eing

scientifc/

Is there

math?+esttubes?

*ou&ll need tobe systematic"



S i tif )ttit d P t



Scientifc )ttitude Part :Skepticism

6efnition: not accepting a %#act& as true$ithout challenging it6 seeing

i# %#acts& can $ithstandattempts to disprove them

"kepticism! like curiosity! generates9uestions2 “Is there another e6planationfor the beha*ior I am seeing? Is there a problem with how I measured it! or how Iset up my e6periment? 1o I need tochange my theory to :t the e*idence?”

S i tif )ttit d P t 7



Scientifc )ttitude Part 7:$umility

$umility re#ersto

seeking the truth

rather thantrying to beright; a scientist

needs to be

able to acceptbeing wrong.

“Whatmatters is

not myopinion oryours! butthe truthnature

re*eals inresponse to

our9uestioning7”



Criticalthinking:

analy5ingin#ormation todecide i# it

makes sense,rather than

simply

accepting it"+oal: gettingat the truth,

even i# it meansputting aside

your o$n ideas"

=ook #orhidden

assumptions anddecide i#

you agree"

=ook #or

hidden%ias,politics,

values, orpersonalconnectio

ns"

1ut aside

your o$nassumptions andbiases,

and lookat the

evidence"

>ee i#

there $asa ?a$ inho$ the

in#ormation $as

collected"

+onsider i#

there areotherpossible

explanations #or the#acts orresults"



/etting to the truth2

The Scientifc 4ethod

The scientifc method is theprocess o# testing our ideasabout the $orld by:

!# the data doesn&t ft our ideas, then $emodi#y our ideas, and test again"



Scientifc4ethod: Toolsand +oals

revealed %y the scientifc

method:

The brain can recover#rom massive earlychildhood braindamage"

>leep$alkers are notacting out dreams"

2ur brains do nothave accurate

memories lockedinside like video fles" There is no 'hidden

and unused @Apercent( o# our brain"

1eople o#ten change

The %asics: Theory

8ypothesis 2perationalDefnitions

7eplication

8esearchgoals9types:

Description +orrelation 1rediction +ausation



Theory: the %ig picture

;xample o# atheory: '4ll4D8D symptomsare a reaction toeating sugar"(

4 theory, inthe language o#science, is a set

of principles,

built onobservationsand other

veriable facts,that explains

some phenomenonand predicts itsfuture behavior.



$ypotheses: in#ormedpredictions

'Testable( means thatthe hypothesis isstated in a $ay that$e could makeobservations to fndout i# it is true"

4 hypothesis is a testable prediction

consistent withour theory " What would be a prediction fromthe “(ll (1$1 isabout sugar”theory?

2ne hypothesis: '!# a kid gets sugar, the kid $illact more distracted, impulsive, and hyper"(

To test the '4ll( part o# the theory: '4D8Dsymptoms $ill continue #or some kids evena#ter sugar is removed #rom the diet"(

w



whypotheses:

theories can %ias our o%servations

.e might select onlythe data, or theinterpretations o# thedata, that support$hat $e already

believe" There aresa#eguards againstthis:8ypothesesdesigned to

disconfrmOperationaldefnitions

+uide #or makinguse#ulo%servations:8o$ can $emeasure '4D8Dsymptoms( in the

previous example inobservable terms3 !mpulsivity B C

o# times/hourcalling out$ithout raising

hand" 8yperactivity BC o# times/hourout o# seat

!nattention B Cminutes

continuously ontask be#ore



The ne2t9fnal step inthe scientifc

method:replication

*ou could introduce a small change in thestudy, e"g" trying the 4D8D/sugar test oncollege students instead o# elementarystudents"

8eplicating research means

trying it again usingthe same operational

defnitions o# theconcepts andprocedures"

h



8esearchProcess: thedepression

e2ample



ow that we-ve coveredthis

"e can move on to this

8 h l d



8esearch goal andstrategy:

description>trategies #or gatheringthis in#ormation:Case Study:observing andgathering in#ormationto compile an in0depthstudy o# one individualaturalisticO%servation:gathering data aboutbehavior6 $atching butnot interveningSurveys and5nterviews: havingother people report ontheir o$n attitudes and

6escriptiv

eresearchis a

systematic,objective

observation of people. The goal is

to provide aclear,

accuratepicture o#people&s

behaviors,thoughts,

andattributes"





O%serving“natural%ehavior means

just watching(and takingnotes, and nottrying to changeanything"

This method can

be used to studymore than oneindividual, andto fnd truthsthat apply to abroaderpopulation"

aturalistic O%servation



The Survey

6efnition: 4method o# gatheringin#ormation about

many people&sthoughts orbehaviors throughsel#0report rather

than observation" Eeys to getting use#ul

in#ormation:

9e care#ul aboutthe wordin o#

"ordinge;ectsthe results you

get #rom asurvey can bechanged by your$ord selection"

02ample:

<2 1o youha*emoti*ation tostudy hard forthis course?

<2 1o you feela desire tostudy hard forthis course?





"hy take a sample/

•

!# you $ant to fnd outsomething about men, youcan&t intervie$ every singleman on earth"

• >ampling saves time" *oucan fnd the ratio o# colors inthis ar by making sure theyare $ell mixed randomi5ed-and then taking a sample"

population

sampl e8andom

sampling is atechni!ue for

making sure thatevery individual in

a population has ane!ual chance of

being in your

sample.

'7andom(

means thatyour selectiono# participantsis driven onlyby chance, notby any

characteristic"



Correlation

+eneral6efnition: an

observation thattwo traits orattributes arerelated to eachother thus, theyare 'co(0related-

Scientifcdefnition: a measure of howclosely twofactors *arytogether , or ho$

$ell you can predicta change in one

5n a case study: The #e$er hours

the boy $asallo$ed to sleep,

the moreepisodes o#aggression he

displayed"

) possi%le resulto# manydescriptivestudies:disco*ering a

correlation 5n anaturalistic

o%servation:+hildren in aclassroom $ho$ere dressed inheavier clothes$ere more likely

to #all asleepthan those$earing lighter

clothes"5n a survey: The greater the

number o#Facebook #riends,

the less time $asspent studying"



3inding Correlations:Scatterplots

1lace a dot on thegraph #or each person,corresponding to the

numbers #or theirheight and shoe si5e" !n this imaginary

example, heightcorrelates $ith shoe

si5e6 as height goesup, shoe si5e goes up"

$ e i g h

t

Shoesi@e



Correlation: 3ace%ook and

Studying

These are t$o #actors$hich correlate6 theyvary together "

This is a negative

correlation as onenumber goes up, theother number goesdo$n"

C l ti C D i t



Correlation CoeDcient• The correlation coecient is a num%er representing the

strength and direction o# correlation"•

The strength o# the relationship re#ers to ho$ close the dotsare to a straight line, $hich means one variable changesexactly as the other one does6 this number varies #rom A"AA to/0 H"AA"

• The direction o# the correlation can be positive bothvariables increase together- or negative as one goes up, theother goes do$n-"

H"AA 0 H"AA

1er#ectpositivecorrelati

on

1er#ectnegativecorrelatio

n

Iorelationship,no

correlation

/uess the Correlation Coe=cients

"hen scatterplots reveal



"hen scatterplots revealcorrelations:8eight relates to shoe si5e, but does it

also correlate to 'temperamentalreactivity score(3 4 table doesn&t sho$this, but the scatterplot does"

!# f d



!# $e fnd acorrelation, $hat

conclusions can $edra$ #rom it3

>et’s say we :nd thefollowing result2

there is a positi*ecorrelation betweentwo *ariables!ice cream sales! andrates of *iolent crime$ow do we e6plainthis?

Correlation is not



Correlation is notCausationE

'1eople $ho?oss more

regularly haveless risk o# heartdisease"(

'1eople $ithbigger #eet tendto be taller"(

!# this data is#rom a survey,can $e concludethat ?ossingmight prevent

heart disease3 2rthat people $ithheart0healthyhabits also ?ossregularly3

Does that meanhaving bigger#eet causes height3

Thinking criticall a%o t



Thinking critically a%outthe te2t:

!# a lo$ sel#0esteem test score'predicts( a high depressionscore, $hat have $e confrmed3that lo$ sel#0esteem causes or$orsens depression3that depression is bad #or sel#0esteem3that lo$ sel#0esteem may be part

o# the defnition o# depression,and that $e&re not reallyconnecting t$o dierent variablesat all3

se Fes eem corre a es



se Fes eem corre a eswith depression(

there are still numerous possible

causal links2

So how do we fnd out



So how do we fnd outa%out causation/ 'y

e2perimentation& 02ample:

removing sugar#rom the diet o#children $ith4D8D to see i# itmakes adierence

!n thedepression/sel#0esteem example:tryinginterventions thatimprove sel#0esteem to see i#

they cause a

02perimenta

tion:manipulatingone #actor in a

situation todetermine its

eect

Gust to clari#y two



Gust to clari#y twosimilarFsounding

terms!

irst you sample! thenyou sort @assignA7

8andomassignment

o#participantsto control orexperimentalgroups is ho$

you controlall variablesexcept the

one you&remanipulating"

8andomsampling isho$ you get

a pool o#research

participantsthatrepresents

thepopulation

you&re tryingto learnabout"

Pl % ; t



Place%o e;ect

Place%o e;ect:experimental

e"ects that arecaused byexpectations

about theintervention

8o$ do $e make sure that the

experimental group doesn&texperience an eect becausethey expect to experience it3

;xample: 4n experimental groupgets a ne$ drug $hile the controlgroup gets nothing, yet bothgroups improve"

/uess why7

"orking with theplace%o e;ect:

+ontrol groups maybe given a place%o an inactive substanceor other faketreatment in place of

the experimentaltreatment "

The control group isideally 'blind( to$hether they aregetting real or #ake

treatment"Kany studies aredou%leF%lind neither participantsnor research stakno$s $hichparticipants are in the



The Control +roup

•

!# $e manipulate a variable in an e2perimental groupo# people, and then $e see an eect, ho$ do $e kno$the change $ouldn&t have happened any$ay3

• .e solve this problem by comparing this group to acontrol group, a group that is the same in every wayexcept the one variable we are changing"

-6ample2 two groups of children ha*e (1$1!

but only one group stops eating re:ned sugar79y usingrandom

assignment:randomly

selecting some

study participants tobe assigned to

the controlgroup or theexperimental

group.

8o$ do makesure thecontrol groupis reallyidentical inevery $ay totheexperimentalgroup3

aming the varia%les



The variable $e are able to manipulateindependently o# $hat the other variables

are doing is called the independentvaria%le H5IJ"

L !# $e test the 4D8D/sugar hypothesis:L >ugar B +ause B !ndependent MariableL 4D8D B ;ect B Dependent Mariable

The variable $e expect to experience achange $hich depends on themanipulation $e&re doing is called thedependent varia%le H6IJ"

LDid ice cream sales cause a rise in violence, orvice versa3 There might be a con#ounding

variable: temperature"

#he other variables that might have ane"ect on the dependent variable arecon#ounding varia%les"

aming the varia%les

3illing in our defnition o#



4n e2periment is a typeo# research in $hich the

researcher carefullymanipulates a limited

number of factors ($%sand measures the impact

on other factors (&%s.

Nin psychology,you $ould belooking at theeect o# theexperimental

change !M- on a%ehavior or

mental process

DM-"

3illing in our defnition o#e 6perimentation

Correlation vs causation:



Correlation vs& causation:the %reast#eeding9intelligence

Kuestion• >tudies have #ound that children

$ho $ere breast#ed score higheron intelligence tests, on average,than those $ho $ere bottle0#ed"

• +an $e conclude that breast#eeding +4>;> higherintelligence3

• Iot necessarily" There is at leastone con#ounding varia%le:genes" The intelligence testscores o# the mothers might behigher in those $ho choosebreast#eeding"

• >o ho$ do $e deal $ith thiscon#ounding variable3 8int:

experiment"

8uling out con#ounding



8uling out con#oundingvaria%les:

e2periment with random

assignment (n actual study in the te6t2 women were randomlyselected to be in a group in which breastfeeding was

promoted

Opoints

Critical Thinking



Critical Thinking

"atch out:descriptive(naturalistic(

retrospectiveresearchresults are

o#tenpresented as i#

they show

causation&

)naly@ethisfctionalresult:

“Peoplewho attendpsychotherapy tend to%e more

depressedthan theaverageperson&

Does this

Summary o# the types o#



Comparing 8esearch 4ethods

8esearch4ethod 'asicPurpose $owConducted

"hat is4anipulated

"eaknesses

Summary o# the types o#8esearch

Descriptive

To observe andrecord behavior

1er#ormcasestudies,surveys, ornaturalistic

observations

Iothing Io control o#variables6single casesmay bemisleading

+orrelational To detectnaturallyoccurringrelationships6to assess ho$$ell onevariablepredicts

another

+omputestatisticalassociation,sometimesamongsurveyresponses

Iothing Does notspeci#y cause0eect6 onevariablepredictsanother butthis does notmean one

causes theother;xperimental To explorecause0eect Kanipulateone ormore#actors6randomlyassignsome tocontrol

group

Theindependentvariables-

>ometimes notpossible #orpractical orethicalreasons6results maynot generali5eto other

contexts

3rom data to insight:



3rom data to insight:statistics

.e&ve done ourresearch and gathereddata"%ow what?

.e can use statistics,which are tools for

organi'ing, presenting,analy'ing, andinterpreting data.

The eed #or Statistical

8easoning4 frst glance at ourobservations might give amisleading picture"

02ample: Kany peoplehave a misleading pictureo# $hat income distributionin 4merica is ideal, actual,or even possible"

Malue o# statistics:

H"to present a moreaccurate picture o# our datae"g" the scatterplot- than$e $ould see other$ise"

P"to help us reach validconclusions #rom our data6

statistics are a crucialcritical thinking tool"



Tools #or 6escri%ing 6ata+he bar graph is one simpledisplay method but e*en this

tool can be manipulated7

urbrandoftruckisbetterB

urbrandoftruck isnot sodierent8

Why is there a dierence in the apparent result?



4ode

Lthe mostcommonlevel/number/

score

4ean

arithmetic'average(-

Lthe sum o#the scores,divided by the

number o#scores

4edianmiddle

person&s score,or QAth percentile-

Lthenumber/levelthat hal# o#

people scoredabove andhal# o# thembelo$

4easures o# centraltendency (re you looking for just %-

%0D;-. to describe a population’s income! height! or

age? ptions2



4easures o# centraltendency8ere is the mode, median, and mean

o# a #amily income distribution" Iotethat this is a skewed distribution6 a#e$ #amilies greatly raise the mean

score"

.hy does this seesa$balance3 Iotice these

gaps3



) di;erent view( showingwhy the seesaw

%alances:

The income is so high #or some #amilieson the right that ust a #e$ #amiliescan balance the income o# all the#amilies to the le#t o# the mean"

4easures o# variation:



Kean

Small standarddeviation

*arge standarddeviation

8ange: the dierence bet$een thehighest and lo$est scores in adistribution

Standard deviation: a calculation o#the average distance o# scores #romthe mean

4easures o# variation:how spread out are the scores?

Sk d l



Skewed vs& ormal6istri%ution

!ncome distribution is ske$ed by the very rich" !ntelligence test distribution tends to #orm a

symmetric 'bell( shape that is so typical that itis called the normal curve&

Skewed distri%ution

ormal curve



)pplying the concepts Try, $ith the help o# this rough dra$ingbelo$, to describe intelligence test scores ata high school and at a college using theconcepts o# range and standard deviation"

!ntelligence testscores at a highschool

!ntelligence testscores at acollege 1L

L

6rawing conclusions #rom



6rawing conclusions #romdata:are the results useful?4#ter fnding a

pattern in our datathat sho$s adierence bet$eenone group andanother, $e can askmore <uestions"

!s the dierencerelia%le: can weuse this result togenerali'e or topredict the futurebehavior of thebroader population3

!s the dierencesignifcant: couldthe result havebeen caused byrandom chancevariation betweenthe groups3

8o$ to achieve reliability:on%iased sampling: Kake surethe sample that you studied is agood representation o# thepopulation you are trying to learnabout"

Consistency: +heck that thedata responses, observations- isnot too widely varied to sho$ aclear pattern"4any data points: Don&t try togenerali5e #rom ust a #e$ cases,

instances, or responses".hen have you #ound statisticallysignifcant dierence e"g"bet$een experimental and controlgroups-3.hen your data is reliable 4ID.hen the dierence bet$een the

groups is large e"g" the data&sdistribution curves do not overlap

3)M a%out Psychology



Muestion: 8o$ can a result #rom anexperiment, possibly simplifed andper#ormed in a laboratory, give us anyinsight into real li#e3

3)M a%out Psychology*a%oratory

vs& *i#e

6iversity

)nswer: 9y isolating variables andstudying them care#ully, $e candiscover general principles that mightapply to all people"

Muestion: Do the insights #romresearch really apply to all people, ordo the #actors o# culture and genderoverride these 'general( principles o#

behavior3)nswer: 7esearch can discover humanuniversals 4ID study ho$ culture andgender in?uence behavior" 8o$ever, $emust be care#ul not to generali5e toomuch #rom studies done $ith subects

$ho do not represent the generalpopulation"




Muestion: .hy study animals3 !s itpossible to protect the sa#ety and

dignity o# animal research subects3

3)M a%out Psychology0thics

0thics

)nswer: >ometimes, biologicallyrelated creatures are less complex thanhumans and thus easier to study" !nsome cases, harm to animals generates

important insights to help all creatures" The value o# animal research remainsextremely controversial"

Muestion: 8o$ do $e protect thesa#ety and dignity o# human subects3

)nswer: 1eople in experiments mayexperience discom#ort6 deceivingpeople sometimes yields insights intohuman behavior" 8uman researchsubects are supposedly protected byguidelines #or non0harm#ul

treatment( confdentiality(




Muestion: 8o$ do the values o#psychologists aect their $ork3 !s itpossible to per#orm value0#reeresearch3

3)M a%out PsychologyThe impacto# Ialues

)nswer: 7esearchers& values aecttheir choices o# topics, theirinterpretations, their labels #or $hatthey see, and the advice they generate

#rom their results" Malue0#ree researchremains an impossible ideal"

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Ap Psyc CHpt.1